Anniversary box drop rates

Vildebill · April 10

code65536 wrote: »

I have an addon (not public; for my own personal use) that logs everything that that I've gotten out of these boxes. I'm doing around ~300 boxes per day (combined across both NA and EU servers and I have alt accounts doing writs too).

The last time I analyzed the data (which was a couple of nights ago), ~15% of boxes contained a crafting motif, ~10% of boxes contained a Companion style page, and ~10% of boxes contained a Jephrine style page. These drop rates are reasonably stable. There are of course fluctuations due to RNG, but they are within the range that I'd expect for a relatively small sample size.*

* While 300/day is a large number of boxes for this event, for the purposes of drawing statistical conclusions, even 300 is still small. For example, if I look at just what I get on EU, which is around 90/day, there was one day where I was around only 10% for motifs, but with just 90/day the difference between 10% and 15% is only 4-5 pages and can easily be swung by a relatively short lucky or unlucky streak.

Thanks, this is really interesting. Would be interesting to look at you data

It seems like me (and obviously many others) have some strange RNG run then.

By the way, do you see any decrease in the drop rates from day one to now?

Shawn_PT · April 10

On the subject of motif drops, I can't complain. I've been getting plenty of them. Unfortunately they're the yellow Jephrine ones or the Companion ones which, seeing as each player can only use them once, makes them nothing but trash after the first drop. I really did not want to, but I'll have to start destroying them.

On the other hand, in about 500 boxes opened so far this year I pulled 3 Worm Cult pages. Which is an amazing droprate considering I opened 1.2K last year and got zero.

doomette · April 10

Shawn_PT wrote: »

On the other hand, in about 500 boxes opened so far this year I pulled 3 Worm Cult pages. Which is an amazing droprate considering I opened 1.2K last year and got zero.

Yikes. If you were on XBox I’d offer the two extra ones I have because damn 😐
Hopefully you get more soon.

code65536 · April 10

Vildebill wrote: »

By the way, do you see any decrease in the drop rates from day one to now?

No.

I opened 371 boxes on the very first day of the event. And got 47 motifs. That's a 12.7% motif drop rate.

Now with 2576 boxes opened, I have 402 motifs for 15.6%--14.9% on EU and 15.9% on NA.

You really can't draw conclusions from daily numbers, because 90 is just way too small of a sample size and way too susceptible to swings from luck. As you can see, even 371 on a single day yielded results that don't really agree with my overall total.

code65536 · April 10

Shawn_PT wrote: »

On the other hand, in about 500 boxes opened so far this year I pulled 3 Worm Cult pages. Which is an amazing droprate considering I opened 1.2K last year and got zero.

The 2019 Worm Cult drop rate was downright scandalous.

Here are my own personal stats...

2018 Anniversary Event: 49 Worm chapters out of 3401 boxes (1 every 69 boxes) (this is the year the Worm Cult style was introduced)
2019 Anniversary Event: 11 Worm chapters out of 4083 boxes (1 every 371 boxes)
2020 Anniversary Event: 17 Worm chapters out of 2576 boxes (1 every 151 boxes)

This drop rate this year is much better than last year's. But it's still a far cry from what we had during the first year that Worm Cult was available. This is a pretty big middle finger for people who missed the 2018 anniversary or who did not complete it that year.

krachall · April 10

It certainly fell off a cliff for me. I'm doing about 80 boxes a day. I was getting 10-15 motifs a day for the first few days. Now, I'm getting 1-2. In my last 150 boxes, i've gotten 2 total.

driosketch · April 10

It's been a lot of loading screens logging in and out of characters, so I haven't been tracking individual days, but if l divide the motifs in my bank plus what my crafter learned (style achievements) by 7 writs per 18 characters over 8 days, I get about 15%.

I have 2 days of writs to do, saved Thursday to do today, so we'll see if I notice a significant drop in pages.

Edit:
42 pages out of 252 boxes. 16.6% drop rate. Range of 0-5 pages per character out of 14 boxes each. Most common drop rate was 2 pages.

GenjiraX · April 10

Yes. I had a great first two or three days and then mostly just crafting materials and the odd duplicate style page. It’s natural to look for underlying causes and patterns but it’s probably just RNG.

LadySinflower · April 10

I have 6 characters I've been doing daily crafting writs with since the start of the event. I've had a pretty steady supply of motifs, including two worm cult pages and a fair supply of other rare ones. I've had a steady supply of common ones as well. The steady steam of gold style pages has been annoying and I've been emailing them to my alt accounts (different gamer tags) hoping to get full sets on one or two. I have a lot of guildies so I hope to give them pieces they are missing. I'll donate extras to my guilds too. I did notice a slight decrease in received motifs for several days, but then it picked back up two days ago. I have had an overabundance of boxes with just plain crap in them, like 10 jute and 10 mountain flower (had this combo a few times). I dunno, the good stuff in the good drops has made the crap ones sting less. No aetherial ciphers for me yet but I did get some perfect roe and potent nirncrux in two different boxes yesterday, and 20 powdered mother of pearl in another.

driosketch · April 10

I edited by post of above. My most recent drops are higher than event average so far. I going say anecdotal trends of lower drops rates are just RNG.

tmbrinks · April 10

33 motifs in 254 boxes so far... almost exactly 13%

I haven't explicitly kept track the other days, but this seems normal anecdotally, and the same as most other days have been so far.

254 boxes is still a small sample size. Surveys with 1000 people in them have margins of error of around 3% Anybody posting numbers less than 100 have enormous margins of error, to the point that the data (on an individual level) is insignificant, and the differences can be explained by randomness.

Psychology also comes into play. When the event starts, you get that dopamine rush when you get a motif, because it's new, it's different. Now that we're in week 2 of the event, they just don't feel "as good" to get, so you brain perceives it as happening less, and you remember the first ones you got more fondly, happening more often, etc...

Some boxes are junk, some are good. It's all free, above and beyond, what you were already getting

Dagoth_Rac · April 10

I "feel" like I am getting fewer motifs, but I also know I have not done quite as many dailies

code65536 wrote: »

Shawn_PT wrote: »

On the other hand, in about 500 boxes opened so far this year I pulled 3 Worm Cult pages. Which is an amazing droprate considering I opened 1.2K last year and got zero.

The 2019 Worm Cult drop rate was downright scandalous.

Here are my own personal stats...
2018 Anniversary Event: 49 Worm chapters out of 3401 boxes (1 every 69 boxes) (this is the year the Worm Cult style was introduced)

2019 Anniversary Event: 11 Worm chapters out of 4083 boxes (1 every 371 boxes)

2020 Anniversary Event: 17 Worm chapters out of 2576 boxes (1 every 151 boxes)

This drop rate this year is much better than last year's. But it's still a far cry from what we had during the first year that Worm Cult was available. This is a pretty big middle finger for people who missed the 2018 anniversary or who did not complete it that year.

I had just adopted a puppy before the Anniversary Event in 2018 and missed almost the entire thing. New puppies keep you very busy. Afterwards, guildies offered me pages because they had gotten lots of duplicates. I was like, "No need. I'll get Worm Cult motif next year." Oops. I think I got like 2 Worm Cult pages last year from what must have been 1000 boxes!

Beardimus · April 10

Vildebill wrote: »

I've been doing writs on 14 characters all the days for the event, plus some pledges here and there, and the occasional other daily. All in all I get around 100 boxes each day, so I'd say my conclusions might be statistically okay.

What I'm seeing is that the drop rate for motifs has been SEVERELY lowered the last like 5 days or so. The first days I probably got 20-30 motifs, and 10-20 recipes, but the last days I've gotten like maximum 10 motifs a day, often less. With so many boxes opened over all these days this doesn't seem like some RNG thing for me. My friends who do what I do says the're experiencing the same thing.

Anyone else that opens a lot of boxes seeing this as well? Is there some statement somewhere that the drop rate was lowered, or that there's some maximum for an account over the event? Because I find it highly unlikely that this is just bad luck.

Last few days I've seen more motifs, way more than at the start

Nerouyn · April 10

Vildebill wrote: »

Anyone else that opens a lot of boxes seeing this as well?

Yeah it does seem to have slowed.

Also very few jephrine bows dropping at this point. I got mine early in the event and not many later. But tonnes of everything else.

Over the last couple of days the rate of transmute stones seems to have skyrocketed.

Malmai · April 10

I got mount in boxes.