Ilambris pauldron, is RNG badly balanced?

Saoghal · March 2018

So, in resume, I've doing pledges everyday for about a week now even with other characters too in hope to get a Ilambris Pauldron for my magsorc in Giliron the red beard's undaunted chest, yet, nothing at all. Is it normal? I've heard about some other people who said that they get it pretty often, so why am I not getting any?

Sixty5 · March 2018

Remember that the R in RNG stands for Random, not "you'll get what you want in a reasonable amount of time"

ForsakenSin · March 2018

buddy few months ago i was doing the same thing week after week afer week for a month or months ... nearly every day doing pledges opening same chest ..and nothing every time i was getting the crap over and over again and i gave up enough was enough.

and then when i decided to go on my healer for faster que instead of my dps i could not believe... i don't know know when or how but he had it in his inventory in medium divines the whole time !! that was a face palm moment ....

it sucks rng in this game... you can always wait for it when it comes in Adhazabi Aba-daro The Golden and just buy it and then trans it into what ever trait you need.

f047ys3v3n · March 2018

Go to the red alliances chests for LLambris. I think they are in mournhold. For whatever reason it has never wanted to drop much for yellow and drops more for red. I had a buddy once do more than 150 keys trying to get llambris. He then herd some of his buddies in red talking about how they couldn't stop getting the thing and tried it. 5 keys later he had 2. The reverse is true if you want Grothdar. It comes from yellow a lot.

Several of the other sets are this way as well. I have no idea why that is. Somebody messed up the loot table probably. A lot of the loot tables and other RNG things are messed up. Care to guess what you 95% lock force chances or pickpocket chances really are? Not 95% that is for sure.

Apache_Kid · March 2018

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

FastBen · March 2018

I am waiting fot those medium devines for a year and a half. I don't use Ilambris any more, but it is a habit - I always open the same chest and still nothing

Eliahnus · March 2018

You've only got 1:12 chance to get one.
I'm still working on getting a Kra'gh's shoulder drop of the Maj al-Ragath chest.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO · March 2018

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

Jarryzzt · March 2018

When will people learn that RNG is streaky?

To wit, I once got 5 Zaan shoulders in 13 keys. I know of at least one guildmate who hasn't seen a single Zaan shoulder in several dozen keys. This is how RNG (which in any case is pseudo-random to begin with) works.

Furthermore, one would encourage everyone to familiarize themselves with Gambler's Fallacy. I.e. that each time you use a key you have an independent roll on the chest's loot table, and no-one cares about the previous X results...

getemshauna · March 2018

How can you even put RNG and balance in same sentence xD

OlafdieWaldfee · March 2018

I got swamped with Ilambris-shoulders ... I never had a magicka-char ...
Now my RNG-luck has moved to Earthgore. LOTS of Earthgore.

Sergykid · March 2018

That's how fate works, u don't find something in the moment u need it.

Ilithyania · March 2018

sometimes you get what you want with 3 keys

other times, it cost 40 keys,

thats how RNG games work

Niobium · March 2018

I play with someone who wanted those exact shoulders. Opened well over 100. In jest I said "I bet if I open a chest I'll get them on the first try."

I opened the chest and got them.

Added to my collection of many divine Illambris shoulders that I already had.

Moral of the Story: If you need them, you won't get them. If you don't need them, you will have them in abundance.

Prof_Bawbag · March 2018

f047ys3v3n wrote: »

Go to the red alliances chests for LLambris. I think they are in mournhold. For whatever reason it has never wanted to drop much for yellow and drops more for red. I had a buddy once do more than 150 keys trying to get llambris. He then herd some of his buddies in red talking about how they couldn't stop getting the thing and tried it. 5 keys later he had 2. The reverse is true if you want Grothdar. It comes from yellow a lot.

Several of the other sets are this way as well. I have no idea why that is. Somebody messed up the loot table probably. A lot of the loot tables and other RNG things are messed up. Care to guess what you 95% lock force chances or pickpocket chances really are? Not 95% that is for sure.

Tin foil hat alert

Beardimus · March 2018

Man there's some tin foil hat descriptions of RNG going on here. It's funny what patterns people make out of the random...

Human nature I guess
Tarot Cards
Tea Leaves
Star signs
Lottery strategy books lol

aeowulf · March 2018

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

Lightspeed, I believe Apache_Kid is correct in this instance. In the case of ESO, I theorise the game looks inside your brain and figures out exactly which set you desire most, (yes, I have been watching Lucifer recently) then gives you a different one.

There is a wiki page dedicated to this kid of effect and it can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy's_law

I have no evidence for the brain scanning, but it my hypothesis fits the Law of Muphy perfectly.

*pinch of salt required with this post*

phileunderx2 · March 2018

For me I can get a chudan whenever I want one. Lol

Septimus_Magna · March 2018

I recently openend around 40 chests for a heavy pauldron because I got the medium divines hat

Azurya · March 2018

if you want a heavy one, you must open the chest with a light armoured sorc or the like!!!

Asardes · March 2018

Yes, it only covers one shoulder and makes my Sorcerer quite uncomfortable. He even developed severe pet allergy because of the stress caused by ugly and ill fitting gear, so he decided to go without.

Nyladreas · March 2018

Asardes wrote: »

Yes, it only covers one shoulder and makes my Sorcerer quite uncomfortable. He even developed severe pet allergy because of the stress caused by ugly and ill fitting gear, so he decided to go without.

Cant you easily change that nowadays?

Asardes · March 2018

Nyladreas wrote: »

Asardes wrote: »

Yes, it only covers one shoulder and makes my Sorcerer quite uncomfortable. He even developed severe pet allergy because of the stress caused by ugly and ill fitting gear, so he decided to go without.

Cant you easily change that nowadays?

The damage is already done

Dubhliam · March 2018

There are 12 different shoulders in that particular chest.
If you are looking for a particular weight, multiply by 3, making that 36 different options.
If that is still not enough, and you really want that exact trait, mutiply that with 8, resultiong in 288 different shoulders in a single chest.

It does not take a genius to tell you that you would need more than 100 keys on average to get what you want.

My advice? Take the first shoulder you get and transmute it.
You can always farm the helmet in the weight you need, which you can then also transmute.

Apache_Kid · March 2018

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO · March 2018

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

you need to support yourself with good evidence or you'll end up believing anything.

see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect and baiscally all of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Decision-making,_belief,_and_behavioral_biases

you need to have a good data set before you can make a claim or at least before you can make a good claim that is not baseless. even on a INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD.

Apache_Kid · March 2018

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

you need to support yourself with good evidence or you'll end up believing anything.

see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect and baiscally all of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Decision-making,_belief,_and_behavioral_biases

you need to have a good data set before you can make a claim or at least before you can make a good claim that is not baseless. even on a INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD.

LOL thanks for the Logic 101 class from the Wikipedia articles. I already took that in college tho.

You're asking for evidence that doesn't exist to us. The only people that can truly prove or disprove this are ZoS which they are not going to do.

I am speculating, although i do believe my own speculation. OP posted about RNG in this game so i decided to share my feelings on RNG based on my personal experiences and the personal experiences of others. If you want people to stop posting things on these message boards without a preponderance of evidence then there are like 1001 more threads you gotta go into now and start layin down the law!!!! I got some people on Twitter and facebook i think you need to look at too while you're at it.

Quoting my post and trying to send me to links to entry-level logic level theories is extremely insulting. As if you think that other users on here are un-educated children. Get off your high horse.

umagon · March 2018

Saoghal wrote: »

So, in resume, I've doing pledges everyday for about a week now even with other characters too in hope to get a Ilambris Pauldron for my magsorc in Giliron the red beard's undaunted chest, yet, nothing at all. Is it normal? I've heard about some other people who said that they get it pretty often, so why am I not getting any?

Typically, when dealing with gambling the odds of you getting a desirable outcome remain the same no matter how many times you pull the handle. I would not waste time stacking keys and definitely do not waste your time with vet mode. ZOS would like you to think that having more keys equates to better odds but that is not how randomly generated number systems work. Things like vet mode do not enhance your chances of getting the desirable outcome. Stick with normal mode for fast clears to minimize wasting time. Don’t drink ZOS’ “the more keys you have the better” kool-aid.

aeowulf · March 2018

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

Asardes · March 2018

Each chest contains 12 possible sets, each of it comes in every possible trait. So the chance of getting the right set and weight combo is 1/36, while the chance of not getting it is 35/36 = 97.2%. Since the probability of each extraction is independent, the total probability of a sequence of consecutive N extractions not producing the sought for item is 0.972^N. Using this formula, the chance of spending 30 keys and not getting an Ilambris pauldron is around 43%. So, considering the odds, OP is not particularly unlucky.

aeowulf · March 2018

yeah, tbh those things have a work round anyway - can just wait for the golden vendor and buy the one you want. No biggy.

I can also show mathematically how some sets could appear more or less often than others... Not to a degree that we mere humans would notice though, so for all intents and purposes, it's roughly right. But of course, it would depend on how ZoS did their maths:

In the case of shoulders, one would hope a number between 1 & 36 was calculated and applied directly to a lookup table of 36 items. However it's entirely possible a number between 1 & 100 is generated and a rounded up of 1/36 is used. To highlight this, 1/36 = 0.027 recurring. Converted into %, this may get rounded up to 2.8%, or 2.78%, or 2.778% etc. Using the most extreme rounding error 35* 2.8 = 98%, leaving the chance of the last item significantly lower at around 2%. But it's WAY more complex that this, there are sets in there we don't see. Giant Spider helm anyone?

This is roughly my theory for VO daggers. Daggers don't feel like they drop less (or I may not actively look out for them, I will from now on), nor do other VO items. Daggers are the last item on the smithing list, so it stands to reason they may also be the last item on the weapon loot list look up. There is mathematically a 1/6 chance this set the last in the loot list, or it is if the loot is listed alphabetically. We could easily be seeing a rounding error affecting VO daggers, highlighted by pretty much every stamblade wanting them.

Or it might just be my (and a lot of guilds over the years) bad luck.

Back to shoulders: Good irl mate got the two shoulders he wanted in perfect traits with... 3 keys. Had I not been there, I would not have believed it.