Ilambris pauldron, is RNG badly balanced?

jssriot

Add me tot he list of people waiting for this heavy shoulder to show up at the Golden. I have spent so many keys trying to get pauldrons. Dozens of epaulets, a couple arm cops. Not one single pauldron.

Radiance

Sometimes I wonder if they have a secret RNG algorithm that changes certain item probability percentages depending on how recently you've received a motif from a lockbox or a prize from crown crates or a specific Item from a WB or Dungeon boss to increase your time spent... For me, I can not for the life of me get a Heavy Troll King Helmet after having run Blessed Crucible countless times, not a single Heavy Helm in the group. I've never played a game so tedious and redundant in my life. Ever...

Etrella

Im completely sure this game is not truly RNG. If you were in ZOS's shoes, wouldn't it make sense to lower the chances on Items that people use or desire most. This will lead players to log in day after day, grind their booty off, until at last you get something. Problem is, being that is still RNG, there is a small chance you will get it on your first try, or even first 3 tries, even if the odds are lowered. This is what makes RNG so complicated.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

aeowulf wrote: »

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

i have 3 of them. and an ax. and a maul. random is random. prolly only ran the craglorn trials like 250 times too.

jssriot wrote: »

Add me tot he list of people waiting for this heavy shoulder to show up at the Golden. I have spent so many keys trying to get pauldrons. Dozens of epaulets, a couple arm cops. Not one single pauldron.

literally the only divines ilambris i have ever got is a heavy ( i stopped looking for one after getting it, only need one). random is random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

you need to support yourself with good evidence or you'll end up believing anything.

see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect and baiscally all of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Decision-making,_belief,_and_behavioral_biases

you need to have a good data set before you can make a claim or at least before you can make a good claim that is not baseless. even on a INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD.

LOL thanks for the Logic 101 class from the Wikipedia articles. I already took that in college tho.

You're asking for evidence that doesn't exist to us. The only people that can truly prove or disprove this are ZoS which they are not going to do.

I am speculating, although i do believe my own speculation. OP posted about RNG in this game so i decided to share my feelings on RNG based on my personal experiences and the personal experiences of others. If you want people to stop posting things on these message boards without a preponderance of evidence then there are like 1001 more threads you gotta go into now and start layin down the law!!!! I got some people on Twitter and facebook i think you need to look at too while you're at it.

Quoting my post and trying to send me to links to entry-level logic level theories is extremely insulting. As if you think that other users on here are un-educated children. Get off your high horse.

as of right now, the the best data we have, straight from the horse's mouth, is that the game is not rigged, https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3425932/#Comment_3425932, see that post.

if you know about anything related to science and actual data driven feedback, you have remove your "feeling" and your " personal experiences" count for jack squat.

aeowulf

i'm suprised no one mentioned the beta luck stat... conspiracy theorists believe it's still present and hard-set on some really old toons.

Me? nah, i'm just lucky (except when it comes to VO daggers and irl betting using money)

I would love to see those same stats on the VO dagger

Saumur11689

If you had played this game at least 3 minutes you'd know RNG is not random, doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

Apache_Kid

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

aeowulf wrote: »

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

i have 3 of them. and an ax. and a maul. random is random. prolly only ran the craglorn trials like 250 times too.

jssriot wrote: »

Add me tot he list of people waiting for this heavy shoulder to show up at the Golden. I have spent so many keys trying to get pauldrons. Dozens of epaulets, a couple arm cops. Not one single pauldron.

literally the only divines ilambris i have ever got is a heavy ( i stopped looking for one after getting it, only need one). random is random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

you need to support yourself with good evidence or you'll end up believing anything.

see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect and baiscally all of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Decision-making,_belief,_and_behavioral_biases

you need to have a good data set before you can make a claim or at least before you can make a good claim that is not baseless. even on a INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD.

LOL thanks for the Logic 101 class from the Wikipedia articles. I already took that in college tho.

You're asking for evidence that doesn't exist to us. The only people that can truly prove or disprove this are ZoS which they are not going to do.

I am speculating, although i do believe my own speculation. OP posted about RNG in this game so i decided to share my feelings on RNG based on my personal experiences and the personal experiences of others. If you want people to stop posting things on these message boards without a preponderance of evidence then there are like 1001 more threads you gotta go into now and start layin down the law!!!! I got some people on Twitter and facebook i think you need to look at too while you're at it.

Quoting my post and trying to send me to links to entry-level logic level theories is extremely insulting. As if you think that other users on here are un-educated children. Get off your high horse.

as of right now, the the best data we have, straight from the horse's mouth, is that the game is not rigged, https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3425932/#Comment_3425932, see that post.

if you know about anything related to science and actual data driven feedback, you have remove your "feeling" and your " personal experiences" count for jack squat.

From 2016?

Yeah sorry every time something gets touched in this game something has the potential to create unintended changes and discrepancies with every single patch because of the spaghetti code. And in that same post they looked at the break-down of someone elses data and just said "well the RNG wasn't kind on this part but it's working heres a chart!" Sorry that doesn't do much for me.

If you knew anything about computers and how then generate random numbers you would know that there is an algorithm that is ran through with a random base value and it gets calculated. If that base value is the same then the RNG will be the same. Or you can have a situation where things the players do, actions, time, all play a factor. Either way it is never TRULY RANDOM. You can say that your chart shows that everything should be random but it never works out close to that. We don't even know how they are generating the values for RNG in this game.

josiahva

Oh, but it is SOOO much easier now with transmute crystals....it used to be literally hundreds of keys before you found the shoulder you were looking for...last night I grabbed a medium Domihaus arm cops for something like 50 keys...took it and transmuted it....before it would have taken me 500 keys to get what I was looking for.

code65536

Saumur11689 wrote: »

If you had played this game at least 3 minutes you'd know RNG is not random, doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

That's your problem. You play the game for 3 minutes, get a few data points, and scream "rigged".

As someone with many hundreds of data points (I've used well over a thousand keys over the past year and a half and have 2.5 thousand keys left in reserve, and I have a custom addon that logs a history of every shoulder that I loot), I guarantee you that it's random.

The problem that you--and many others--have is that you have too few data points. Someone will spend a hundred keys, not get what they want, and then cry that it's rigged. Well, I hate to break it to you, but a hundred keys is nothing. With 12 shoulders, 3 weights, and 8 traits, that's 288 different possibilities. If you ignore the trait and decide to trait change, that's still 36 possibilities if you want a particular shoulder in a particular weight, regardless of the trait. But surely 100 keys--almost thrice the number of possibilities--should be enough, right?

If you do the math, you'll see that there is still a 6% chance that, even after 100 keys, you will not get the shoulder in the weight that you want. Just basic high school math ((35/36)^100). So imagine if there were ten thousand players who want a heavy Ilambris in any trait. 600 of those players will not get a heavy Ilambris within their first 100 keys.

That's just how probability works. No rigging required. Sure, it sucks for those 600 players. And they will probably come to the conclusion, like you, that the game is rigged against them. And they will come to the forums saying "RNG is not random". But, while understandable, that is an irrational and incorrect conclusion borne out of human emotion rather than a sound understanding of mathematics.

I've had shoulders where I spent literally hundreds of key to acquire. And shoulders that I acquired within the first handful of keys. Extremes like this tend to stick more prominently in the human mind, but my logs don't lie--over large sample sizes, the distribution is fair and even. You just gotta remember that "large" here means thousands of data points, not dozens or even hundreds.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

aeowulf wrote: »

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

i have 3 of them. and an ax. and a maul. random is random. prolly only ran the craglorn trials like 250 times too.

jssriot wrote: »

Add me tot he list of people waiting for this heavy shoulder to show up at the Golden. I have spent so many keys trying to get pauldrons. Dozens of epaulets, a couple arm cops. Not one single pauldron.

literally the only divines ilambris i have ever got is a heavy ( i stopped looking for one after getting it, only need one). random is random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

you need to support yourself with good evidence or you'll end up believing anything.

see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect and baiscally all of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Decision-making,_belief,_and_behavioral_biases

you need to have a good data set before you can make a claim or at least before you can make a good claim that is not baseless. even on a INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD.

LOL thanks for the Logic 101 class from the Wikipedia articles. I already took that in college tho.

You're asking for evidence that doesn't exist to us. The only people that can truly prove or disprove this are ZoS which they are not going to do.

I am speculating, although i do believe my own speculation. OP posted about RNG in this game so i decided to share my feelings on RNG based on my personal experiences and the personal experiences of others. If you want people to stop posting things on these message boards without a preponderance of evidence then there are like 1001 more threads you gotta go into now and start layin down the law!!!! I got some people on Twitter and facebook i think you need to look at too while you're at it.

Quoting my post and trying to send me to links to entry-level logic level theories is extremely insulting. As if you think that other users on here are un-educated children. Get off your high horse.

as of right now, the the best data we have, straight from the horse's mouth, is that the game is not rigged, https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3425932/#Comment_3425932, see that post.

if you know about anything related to science and actual data driven feedback, you have remove your "feeling" and your " personal experiences" count for jack squat.

From 2016?

Yeah sorry every time something gets touched in this game something has the potential to create unintended changes and discrepancies with every single patch because of the spaghetti code. And in that same post they looked at the break-down of someone elses data and just said "well the RNG wasn't kind on this part but it's working heres a chart!" Sorry that doesn't do much for me.

If you knew anything about computers and how then generate random numbers you would know that there is an algorithm that is ran through with a random base value and it gets calculated. If that base value is the same then the RNG will be the same. Or you can have a situation where things the players do, actions, time, all play a factor. Either way it is never TRULY RANDOM. You can say that your chart shows that everything should be random but it never works out close to that. We don't even know how they are generating the values for RNG in this game.

yes, it is from 2016. that doesn't change the fact that that is the best data we have and there is no reason to think that it has changed. zos would be in a giant storm of bad PR if they ever did weight one trait over another (which would be the problem, not the Pseudorandom number generator that you keep going on about, because as you said, computers can't really generate a true "random" number). whatever way zos generates the "randomness" you can see that it does a good enough job that from that chart that is provided, that it evens out on a large enough scale, ie 100s of thousands.

basically everything you have said boils down, my precious fee fees are the most important thing and tell me i am right. you give no data to back them up. i have provided some. you have nothing but first or second hand accounts. i am open to the chance that i am wrong but you have given me nothing to change my mind. or anyones.

code65536

Apache_Kid wrote: »

If you knew anything about computers and how then generate random numbers you would know that there is an algorithm that is ran through with a random base value and it gets calculated. If that base value is the same then the RNG will be the same. Or you can have a situation where things the players do, actions, time, all play a factor. Either way it is never TRULY RANDOM. You can say that your chart shows that everything should be random but it never works out close to that. We don't even know how they are generating the values for RNG in this game.

As a computer scientist, I know exactly how PRNG works. And comments like yours demonstrate that you don't really understand how they work. You understand enough to lend credence to your theory, but not enough to realize how silly it sounds.

Apache_Kid

code65536 wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

If you knew anything about computers and how then generate random numbers you would know that there is an algorithm that is ran through with a random base value and it gets calculated. If that base value is the same then the RNG will be the same. Or you can have a situation where things the players do, actions, time, all play a factor. Either way it is never TRULY RANDOM. You can say that your chart shows that everything should be random but it never works out close to that. We don't even know how they are generating the values for RNG in this game.

As a computer scientist, I know exactly how PRNG works. And comments like yours demonstrate that you don't really understand how they work. You understand enough to lend credence to your theory, but not enough to realize how silly it sounds.

I am no computer scientist. However as you stated above, the way that these numbers are supposedly generated certain players could spend 1000 keys and not get the item that they need. This is a problem. Even if ZoS didn't actually weight stuff differently, you cannot achieve true randomness with this approach to loot. I've discussed this with people who are more informed on the subject than me at length such as yourself. This is why the game needs a sort of token system where after running a piece of content a certain number of times you get a voucher for a piece of gear from that specific loot-table. This system of RNG leaves certain players in a situation where they could literally never get the drop they need because they are on the bad end of an RNG curve. You say that you have data points saved up that proves the shoulder drop rate is completely random but someone else with your add-on collecting data might say something different. Maybe your sample size isn't high enough. And if you are completely right the system IS rigged for certain players because of the way the system is designed.

lucky_Sage

really every other one I get is ilambris maybe more

Apache_Kid

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

aeowulf wrote: »

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

i have 3 of them. and an ax. and a maul. random is random. prolly only ran the craglorn trials like 250 times too.

jssriot wrote: »

Add me tot he list of people waiting for this heavy shoulder to show up at the Golden. I have spent so many keys trying to get pauldrons. Dozens of epaulets, a couple arm cops. Not one single pauldron.

literally the only divines ilambris i have ever got is a heavy ( i stopped looking for one after getting it, only need one). random is random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

RNG in this game is not random at all. Things are weighted in ways we can't even see.

i am going to need to see the receipts on that statement, otherwise, what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I don't have any empirical evidence. Also this is not a court of law so the rules of "evidence" do not apply the same way here on this INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD as in other places.

There are odd things in this game. When I farm certain dungeons, the same drops seem to appear over and over and over. Doing blackheart haven? 20-30% of the time the last boss will drop a bone-pirate resto staff. Doing Darkshade Caverns? Feels like most of the time final boss drops an automaton inferno staff. I've gotten 10's of each of these.

There was a thread up here a while back where someone had forced the lock on 1000 chests and recorded their results and they found out that the percentage of successful forces was much less than advertised.

While we only have anecdotal evidence, we have much of it, from my own experiences, and those experiences of other players on here and those who i have spoken with in-game.

So yeah, I feel like i can assert my feelings about RNG on this game on the message boards. Thanks for your concern about "receipts" tho.

you need to support yourself with good evidence or you'll end up believing anything.

see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect and baiscally all of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Decision-making,_belief,_and_behavioral_biases

you need to have a good data set before you can make a claim or at least before you can make a good claim that is not baseless. even on a INTERNET MESSAGE BOARD.

LOL thanks for the Logic 101 class from the Wikipedia articles. I already took that in college tho.

You're asking for evidence that doesn't exist to us. The only people that can truly prove or disprove this are ZoS which they are not going to do.

I am speculating, although i do believe my own speculation. OP posted about RNG in this game so i decided to share my feelings on RNG based on my personal experiences and the personal experiences of others. If you want people to stop posting things on these message boards without a preponderance of evidence then there are like 1001 more threads you gotta go into now and start layin down the law!!!! I got some people on Twitter and facebook i think you need to look at too while you're at it.

Quoting my post and trying to send me to links to entry-level logic level theories is extremely insulting. As if you think that other users on here are un-educated children. Get off your high horse.

as of right now, the the best data we have, straight from the horse's mouth, is that the game is not rigged, https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3425932/#Comment_3425932, see that post.

if you know about anything related to science and actual data driven feedback, you have remove your "feeling" and your " personal experiences" count for jack squat.

From 2016?

Yeah sorry every time something gets touched in this game something has the potential to create unintended changes and discrepancies with every single patch because of the spaghetti code. And in that same post they looked at the break-down of someone elses data and just said "well the RNG wasn't kind on this part but it's working heres a chart!" Sorry that doesn't do much for me.

If you knew anything about computers and how then generate random numbers you would know that there is an algorithm that is ran through with a random base value and it gets calculated. If that base value is the same then the RNG will be the same. Or you can have a situation where things the players do, actions, time, all play a factor. Either way it is never TRULY RANDOM. You can say that your chart shows that everything should be random but it never works out close to that. We don't even know how they are generating the values for RNG in this game.

yes, it is from 2016. that doesn't change the fact that that is the best data we have and there is no reason to think that it has changed. zos would be in a giant storm of bad PR if they ever did weight one trait over another (which would be the problem, not the Pseudorandom number generator that you keep going on about, because as you said, computers can't really generate a true "random" number). whatever way zos generates the "randomness" you can see that it does a good enough job that from that chart that is provided, that it evens out on a large enough scale, ie 100s of thousands.

basically everything you have said boils down, my precious fee fees are the most important thing and tell me i am right. you give no data to back them up. i have provided some. you have nothing but first or second hand accounts. i am open to the chance that i am wrong but you have given me nothing to change my mind. or anyones.

I'm not saying they necessarily weight things over one another (even though its possible) but rather that the way that RNG works is that it can never TRULY be random. This RNG system creates outliers where certain players will never get the drop they need which is why the game needs a form of a token system which is my overall point with this. Run a piece of content enough (a lot) of times and get a voucher for an item from the loot-table. Yeah the RNG might be equal and weighted for alot of people, maybe even a strong majority, but this system puts many other players in a bad situation on the far end of an RNG curve. This has nothing about my "precious fee fees" but you are so condescending as a person its increasingly insulting.

code65536

Apache_Kid wrote: »

but rather that the way that RNG works is that it can never TRULY be random. This RNG system creates outliers where certain players will never get the drop they need

Do you realize how ridiculously contradictory that sounds? Either something is truly random. Or there are no outliers. Pick one. You can't have both.

The feature of a truly random system is that there will be outliers. If there were no outliers, then that's when you can say that the system is not random!

Your main complaint is that the system really is random. What's bewildering is that you then accuse the system of not being random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

which is why the game needs a form of a token system

And I agree. I've long argued for the necessity of a token system. And we got one last patch: it's called transmutation. It's a token system, under the thin façade of crafting. Might not be the perfect token system. But that's what it is.

Apache_Kid

code65536 wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

but rather that the way that RNG works is that it can never TRULY be random. This RNG system creates outliers where certain players will never get the drop they need

Do you realize how ridiculously contradictory that sounds? Either something is truly random. Or there are no outliers. Pick one. You can't have both.

The feature of a truly random system is that there will be outliers. If there were no outliers, then that's when you can say that the system is not random!

Your main complaint is that the system really is random. What's bewildering is that you then accuse the system of not being random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

which is why the game needs a form of a token system

And I agree. I've long argued for the necessity of a token system. And we got one last patch: it's called transmutation. It's a token system, under the thin façade of crafting. Might not be the perfect token system. But that's what it is.

I was talking as if we are going off the assumption that RNG is working as intended when i said that there are outliers. I decided to continue the conversation like this because yes I don't have any hard data as proof as my loot history cannot be collected by add-ons on Xbox. I wish it were because I would have some great numbers for ya. I still don't necessarily believe that to be so but rather if we are assuming you are correct which yeah is very possible. And then these outliers create problems because these outliers are actual players, not just numbers, real people, who cannot progress further in the game because they are stuck repeating the same content over and over and over.

Yeah transmutation is a great step forward. However it doesn't solve the real issue because you need the drop first to transmute it. Transmutation is probably the best we are going to get however. I don't see them taking it a step further after making a whole new system and only having it revolve around the traits. When you think about farming gear in good traits pre-transmutation and think about how many different RNG checks you would have to go through to get the right item from the right set in the right trait its actually madness and I can't believe I ever did it.

code65536

Apache_Kid wrote: »

code65536 wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

but rather that the way that RNG works is that it can never TRULY be random. This RNG system creates outliers where certain players will never get the drop they need

Do you realize how ridiculously contradictory that sounds? Either something is truly random. Or there are no outliers. Pick one. You can't have both.

The feature of a truly random system is that there will be outliers. If there were no outliers, then that's when you can say that the system is not random!

Your main complaint is that the system really is random. What's bewildering is that you then accuse the system of not being random.

Apache_Kid wrote: »

which is why the game needs a form of a token system

And I agree. I've long argued for the necessity of a token system. And we got one last patch: it's called transmutation. It's a token system, under the thin façade of crafting. Might not be the perfect token system. But that's what it is.

I was talking as if we are going off the assumption that RNG is working as intended when i said that there are outliers. I decided to continue the conversation like this because yes I don't have any hard data as proof as my loot history cannot be collected by add-ons on Xbox. I wish it were because I would have some great numbers for ya. I still don't necessarily believe that to be so but rather if we are assuming you are correct which yeah is very possible. And then these outliers create problems because these outliers are actual players, not just numbers, real people, who cannot progress further in the game because they are stuck repeating the same content over and over and over.

Yeah transmutation is a great step forward. However it doesn't solve the real issue because you need the drop first to transmute it. Transmutation is probably the best we are going to get however. I don't see them taking it a step further after making a whole new system and only having it revolve around the traits. When you think about farming gear in good traits pre-transmutation and think about how many different RNG checks you would have to go through to get the right item from the right set in the right trait its actually madness and I can't believe I ever did it.

Sure, the outliers are problems. Which is why a truly random system--which is what ESO has--is unfair in the sense that players are not rewarded for merit. It is, however, fair in the sense that there is no rigging or tipping the scales or anything like that. It all depends on how you define "fair".

Or, to put it another way, the system is fair in the sense that the dice being rolled is a fair, unweighted dice. There is no conspiracy against the player. There is no reason to believe that the results are anything but random. Unfortunately, much of this thread is filled with people with tinfoil hats claiming that it's not random or that there is some sort of nefarious conspiratorial bias from ZOS to screw players. Yes, there will be outliers of people getting screwed. But that's what luck is.

The correct avenue of discussion isn't to chase some ludicrous claim of "RNG isn't random", it's to ask the question, "Is random luck an appropriate and fair way to reward players?" That's more of an abstract question of principles.

So, no, I don't think luck is a particularly good way to reward merit. But luck is the system that we have, and as far as whether that luck is truly blind and the dice being rolled is fair and unweighted, yes, it is.

Saoghal

"Is random luck an appropriate and fair way to reward players?" hell no... I'm done, really done, *** this game... been doing pledges for two weeks now and still no Ilambris, but he I got Pirate set, Grothdarr set & Selene set shoulders a lot....sorry for the language but I'm pissed....it's not fun at all, you buy for a game that is not fun is...well no fun!

Saoghal

I mean, if there's some parts are are rarer to get then others, ZOS should outright tell us the odds or tell us if the chest truly are 100% random at least I'll know what i'm getting into instead of grinding for weeks and weeks for nothing....

Undefwun

Tried to gets zaan’s recently. 20 keys. I did get it, but got like 12-14 lord warden in like every combo possible

As for RNG I’m general. Around 50 mMOL runs. Seen 2 MD Inferno and 2 MD Lightning drop. Never for me.

starkerealm

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

aeowulf wrote: »

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

i have 3 of them. and an ax. and a maul. random is random. prolly only ran the craglorn trials like 250 times too.

I've got 2, a pair of swords. I've run the Crag trials less than 50 times total. Probably less than 20, if I'm being brutally honest about how often I actually go in there.

kromegas

20 keys- no Zaan. Got the helm in medium and heavy though...


Waiting....

Jarryzzt

I, for one, prefer to imagine that every time I use an Undaunted key, a signal goes out to a specially trained Zenimax associate - who may or may not be, in fact, a highly intelligent chimpanzee masquerading as a white collar office worker - which individual thoroughly reviews my in-game account and character history, preferred equipment loadouts and latest damage parses, and hand-selects the specific combination of set, weight and traits for the shoulders I am about to receive that is bound to cause me the greatest conceivable amount of annoyance. It makes me feel special to think this person exists. Loved, even.

---

Also, I cannot believe this thread is still going. Note to self - necro it six months from now, just for the hell of it.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

starkerealm wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

aeowulf wrote: »

@Lightspeedflashb14_ESO - yes I'd love to completely agree with you, and logically you are correct, atleast in a perfect world scenario. But I have three words for you:

Vicious Ophidian Dagger

I don't think 'Ilambris pauldron' was the best example of poor RNG in ESO.

I actually know a bit about computer generated RNG, enought to know that unless ZoS are using HSM's or something similar (and they won't be) what is referred to as RNG is actually just NG, number generation that appears vaguely random. Probably from libraries where under certain circumstances certain numbers are not as common when the sample size is large enough. All this crypto hacking, sha1 depreciation etc - some is due to poor crypto libraries/random number generation/etc. (Still mostly down to human stupidity tho)

i have 3 of them. and an ax. and a maul. random is random. prolly only ran the craglorn trials like 250 times too.

I've got 2, a pair of swords. I've run the Crag trials less than 50 times total. Probably less than 20, if I'm being brutally honest about how often I actually go in there.

I actually have a sharpened sword too that I forgot about, and I had a sharpened dagger too, both from when sharpened was king and you couldn't transmute.

Saoghal wrote: »

I mean, if there's some parts are are rarer to get then others, ZOS should outright tell us the odds or tell us if the chest truly are 100% random at least I'll know what i'm getting into instead of grinding for weeks and weeks for nothing....

The only evidence that we have, I already posted in this thread. There is not any weight to one piece over another. It is all RNG. Or at least as rng as a computer can do.

Just to clarify as well. True randomness means that you COULD be grinding for weeks and weeks and still get nothing. No weighting needed.

@code65536 I have a custom addon that logs a history of every shoulder that I loot

Great write up and could you publish this add-on for the rest of us, I would really like to have it. Maybe somehow do a upload of them too, like that one addon that tracks crown crates?

frausty

Saoghal wrote: »

So, in resume, I've doing pledges everyday for about a week now even with other characters too in hope to get a Ilambris Pauldron for my magsorc in Giliron the red beard's undaunted chest, yet, nothing at all. Is it normal? I've heard about some other people who said that they get it pretty often, so why am I not getting any?

Got them twice in the last week. And they will sit gathering dust in the bank forever as I want epaulets. But random means random. It's the same reason I've never won the guild raffle despite putting in a good chunk of gold every week.

teiselaise

I haven't gotten scourge, probably never will, have done hundreds upon hundreds of chests

SaintSubwayy

well for undauntedshoulders the RNG table is just way to big IMO.

3 different weights
8 different traits
12/8/12 different sets in the chests

so you have a chance of 1 in 288 in non DLC chests to get what you want (Glirion and Raj)
and a cahce of 1 in 192 for DLC chests.

and even if you use 288 keys on a chest, its not guaranteed that you get what you want, since its not taking into account how many keys you used, nor what you got before.

IMO there should be a Chest in each vet dungeon (at the end) which holds the shoulder from this dungeon.
you can open the chest as often as you want while you're in the Dungeon.
Shoulders dropped should be tradeable for 2 hrs with the ppl you ran the dungeon with, (not the ppl who where in the dungeon when you looted the chest.)

jaschacasadiob16_ESO

Karma is a beach.

Saoghal

SaintSubwayy wrote: »

well for undauntedshoulders the RNG table is just way to big IMO.

IMO there should be a Chest in each vet dungeon (at the end) which holds the shoulder from this dungeon.
you can open the chest as often as you want while you're in the Dungeon.
Shoulders dropped should be tradeable for 2 hrs with the ppl you ran the dungeon with, (not the ppl who where in the dungeon when you looted the chest.)

On that I agree, there should be a mechanism like this or something else to give an alternative if the RNG odds are not at all at your favor as so to make the grinding a little more rewarding. I know there's the "gold" vendor in Cyrrodil every week-end that could potentially sell it, but I could wait many months before it's available to purchase one week-end as the sold stuff change every week.

Saoghal

Almost been grinding it for a month now...still NO Illambris....