The Undaunted Chests ARE Rigged

Alcast · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

get rekt QQers LOL

Baconlad · October 2016

i'd be fkn happy just to get training or divines on my shoulders...need SOMTHING to tide me over till it comes out on golden vendor...i HATE PVE, and have been doing instances for over a week now about 2 a night average...got four selenes and ZERO ice heart...

Malmai · October 2016

Rigged 100% they need to change this i opened 184 chests and i got 2 sturdy (kena, croc) and 1 divine (grothdarr) else was training and prosperus bs...

Solus · October 2016

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

Now before everyone says, "Duh." or "Champ, what are you talking about?" Hear me out for just a moment. You are far more likely to get items with the prosperous and training trait, than any other trait. Some of you already knew this, and some may say it's all RNG. However, the RNG for this particular loot table IS rigged.

I myself opened around 500 keys (on Mac), and around 80% of what I opened was either prosperous or training. Buddies of mine and guildies opened tons of keys as well, and all of which experienced around the same ratio I have, with the majority having prosperous or training gear. I watched a few YouTube videos of people opening chests with their keys, and all of those who I watched ended up having very bad 'luck' with prosperous and training traits appearing. Even @Deltia suffered this, if that means anything. Lol. I don't know if these 2 traits appear so frequently due to the majority of people being below CP cap who play overall, or what. But, things are definitely not 'balanced' in regards to loot table RNG for Undaunted chests.

Note:
I haven't opened any chests on PS4 yet, as the newest changes/patch/update hasn't gone live for console players yet. But, I will definitely post my findings here upon discovering them.

First experience with the new chests:

Kena shoulder - Divines
Warden - prosperous
Veli (heavy) - sturdy
Veli (medium) - impen
Kena medium - training.

I get a random mix of things. But i have really good luck apparently. Picked up all three IC polys in under 20 imperial lock boxes. usually get 5-8 dreugh wax per 200-300 stack. Same with tempering alloys. Idk. Maybe adopt the mindset that no matter what you're happy with what you get. Like i wanted the polys, but I didnt care either way.

Maybe stop trying so hard/wanting to get them and you will get them?

G0ku · October 2016

Maybe it´s weighted the same, but what use does it have if I get freaking 12 shoulders of Lord Warden in divines?

Enslaved · October 2016

I spent some keys myself sinte 1T went live. Must say I did get more prosperous/training shoulders than I expected.. Also, not a singe medium armor selene/kra'gh yet lol

Thornen · October 2016

But without my gold prosperous set and training weapons I get like 8% less gold and xp per mob kill... seriously this *** needs to be deleted from the game asap.

Dubhliam · October 2016

I haven't tested it after One Tamriel, but pre-OT, this is the statistics I got from chests:

It is kinda hard to imagine it was suddenly changed to 80% for two traits.

SlayerTheDragon · October 2016

Training is the most useful trait below level 50 (but pledges are not done for below 50 gear).
Prosperous sucks 24/7/365.

ZOS should just nerf all traits so that for elite min/maxers they still have use, but for everyone else that 0.5% damage increase does not matter.

Ankael07 · October 2016

Im neither saying chests are rigged nor accepting a graphic that looks like its made by paint (I mean no offense Rich).
We need an official release of the drop codes so that we can observe with a third party program.

Solus · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Solution:

If you meet certain prerequisites training (at least) gets taken out of the RNG dice roll.

Prosperous is, in its own right, a really good idea. But the fact that running all impen armor is more profitable than prosperous makes it completely useless. I would personally like to see a buff to this, rather than have it taken out. If prosperous was buffed to a point where running a full set of it actually made you a decent amount of gold i would totally use it.

For me, if i want more CP ill use XP scrolls/ Psyjic drink. I play enough as it is that i dont care about earning cp 'faster'. Im more than half way to 561 anyways. When you reach CP160 training should be off the table. When you do anything Veteran, training should be out. Hard mode especially. Until prosperous is fixed i feel it should be taken off as well. I never use it.

Cherryblossom · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

@ZOS_RichLambert

So based on your figures you can say that they are not Undaunted rewards, as I'm assuming you know no-one wants training or Prosperous shoulders.....

Bryanonymous · October 2016

I would like a game developer or server administrator to officially state that they do not have tools to tweak drop rates at any time, and therefore they do not tweak drop rates all the time... Because it seems like they tweak drop rates all the time. I even left a guild over this argument as they made me feel like a conspiracy theorist. And just so everyone recognizes, a forum moderator is not a developer or server administrator.

IwakuraLain42 · October 2016

Of course the chests (and the rest of the loot system) are "rigged", but not in the way people think they are.
Remember that ESO (as are are all other MMO systems out there which are not P2W) is at it's core nothing more then a gigantic hamster wheel where we all labour to get your favorite gear. As the current iteration (One Tamriel) has no really new content to entertain us we need to be entertained by gathering new toys, which has to last (in average) for 3 months.

So the inclusion of the "useless" traits in most loot tables (training, etc) is just meant to dilute the table to far that we don't have our perfect gear in just 2 weeks. I'm pretty sure that the probabilities for all gear drops are the same (something like 12% per trait).

Julianos · October 2016

Remove prosperous and training from monster sets and VMA weapons obviously no one is using those items for training or to get rich.

Maff · October 2016

My experience with opening chests since 1T on PS4 is the trait RNG is very equal (I don't hoard keys, I use them straight after completion). I have no issues with training and prosperous drops, if they were removed I wouldn't be doing dungeons for long. Because I need to do them frequently to get good drops I built my first PVE only toon and it's been fun.
I do however note I seem to get much more rewards in light than medium or heavy though.

raglau · October 2016

Obviously the chests are 'rigged' as are other drops. They are rigged in favour of the developer to keep you coming back for more, and keep you grinding the same old content in the hopes of getting the 'perfect drop'. The more they can inveigle you to replay existing content, the slower it means ZOS have to deliver genuine new content, and therefore the lower their costs.

Also for subbing players, the longer those players will retain a sub before they do finally exhaust all content and unsubscribe while awaiting the next big DLC.

Dread_Viking · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

you can say that all you want but when you use a 120 key get to Devins and one inpen and the rest is prosperous and training and *** triads we dont believe you

Dubhliam · October 2016

Okay... so I did some testing on the PTS for One Tamriel this time.

A small testing sample, but it does seem to confirm what Rich said.
Around 12% chance for every trait.

Saying that you drop training and prosperous 80% of the time is just simply....
not true.

camknox · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

But why? Who at CP160 needs Training or Prosperous. The only people wearing the traits at high levels are because they are forced to because the trait they would actually use is being forced down the loot table by worthless ones. Your RNG tables are great but as you saw he was also getting equipment in material (light, medium or heavy) on pieces that are clearly intended for use by other types. For example he was getting pieces typically used by heavy armor wearers in Impenetrable trait on light armor. It's not ideal. That alone skews the results of your tables into the complete negative.

Freezoide · October 2016

Although I have to pick up my math in that section again, the distribution of keys of players should just be tested versus a Multinomial distribution. Or heck just even test it with one specific trait versus all other traits and see if it surpasses the Binomial distribution.

If ZOS claims this is RNG with same chances, then the whole looting system is a simple Multinomial Distribution with all chances 12.5% (8 traits right?) and you just check how much probability your distribution has based on this one.

As said before, I have to pick up my math for a solid story to mathematically prove or disprove that their mechanic is distributed equally (and thus a Multinomial distribution) but to get the specific shoulder you want, you have to be quite lucky.

Saying you need a shoulderpiece that Maj al-Ragath drops, you have an 12.5% chance for the trait you want (assuming 8 traits) and a 8.33% (assuming 12 different monster sets) chance for the monsterset you specifically want. That's a roughly 1% for the specific item and trait together.

Using Binomial distribution it means that if you still don't have your specific item after "288" keys, you belong to the group of 5% of the people who is unlucky of having the item. (In other words, after 288 keys, 95% of the gamers will find their specific item; or atleast that is the expected value of say, divine kra'agh shoulder piece).

Long story short with the exact chance; it means that 5% of the players are still unlucky, even after 288 keys. That's 1 out of 20 players! Assuming ESO has quite some players, it's to be expected a forumpost like this would start.

I have to admit, Deltia is rather exceptional with the rate of divine drop (the chance he had just roughly 8% divine over 250 throws is a 1 out of 200 people) but then again, an 1 out of 200 situation with this big playerpool? It's not that just 100 people are playing this game. I'm not suprised.

@ZOS_RichLambert or any working member of ZOS actually; can you simply confirm the looting system is based on a Multinomial Distribution with equal chances on traits & set items? Then this lazy gaming mathematician is happy that his math-background isn't completely gonerino ^^

P.S. Unless there are atleast 100 people writing down every item that they've got up till +300 keys, I doubt it's hard to make any claim if this system is rigged or not. Or ofcourse 1 player should get over +288 keys * 100 = +/-29k keys cause then he/she can speak for 100 people, which I would say, is a nice sample of this looting experiment.

Dubhliam · October 2016

Freezoide wrote: »

Although I have to pick up my math in that section again, the distribution of keys of players should just be tested versus a Multinomial distribution. Or heck just even test it with one specific trait versus all other traits and see if it surpasses the Binomial distribution.

If ZOS claims this is RNG with same chances, then the whole looting system is a simple Multinomial Distribution with all chances 12.5% (8 traits right?) and you just check how much probability your distribution has based on this one.

As said before, I have to pick up my math for a solid story to mathematically prove or disprove that their mechanic is distributed equally (and thus a Multinomial distribution) but to get the specific shoulder you want, you have to be quite lucky.

Saying you need a shoulderpiece that Maj al-Ragath drops, you have an 12.5% chance for the trait you want (assuming 8 traits) and a 8.33% (assuming 12 different monster sets) chance for the monsterset you specifically want. That's a roughly 1% for the specific item and trait together.

Using Binomial distribution it means that if you still don't have your specific item after "288" keys, you belong to the group of 5% of the people who is unlucky of having the item. (In other words, after 288 keys, 95% of the gamers will find their specific item; or atleast that is the expected value of say, divine kra'agh shoulder piece).

Long story short with the exact chance; it means that 5% of the players are still unlucky, even after 288 keys. That's 1 out of 20 players! Assuming ESO has quite some players, it's to be expected a forumpost like this would start.

I have to admit, Deltia is rather exceptional with the rate of divine drop (the chance he had just roughly 8% divine over 250 throws is a 1 out of 200 people) but then again, an 1 out of 200 situation with this big playerpool? It's not that just 100 people are playing this game. I'm not suprised.

@ZOS_RichLambert or any working member of ZOS actually; can you simply confirm the looting system is based on a Multinomial Distribution with equal chances on traits & set items? Then this lazy gaming mathematician is happy that his math-background isn't completely gonerino ^^

P.S. Unless there are atleast 100 people writing down every item that they've got up till +300 keys, I doubt it's hard to make any claim if this system is rigged or not. Or ofcourse 1 player should get over +288 keys * 100 = +/-29k keys cause then he/she can speak for 100 people, which I would say, is a nice sample of this looting experiment.

Give this guy a medal.

Oh, and btw...
You forgot to calculate the weight into the equation.
People often chase a specific shoulder meaning a specific set, with a specific trait in a specific weight.

So if a person would spend all his keys on just one chest, his chances to obtain a specific item from that chest is 1:288.
In other words 0.35%
Or 1,04% for a specific set with a specific trait, regardless of weight.

When people get this fact into their thick skull, maybe they'll realize they need to stop whining on the forum and start farming Keys all day every day.

Salovodka · October 2016

hayaschwarz · October 2016

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

Now before everyone says, "Duh." or "Champ, what are you talking about?" Hear me out for just a moment. You are far more likely to get items with the prosperous and training trait, than any other trait. Some of you already knew this, and some may say it's all RNG. However, the RNG for this particular loot table IS rigged.

I myself opened around 500 keys (on Mac), and around 80% of what I opened was either prosperous or training. Buddies of mine and guildies opened tons of keys as well, and all of which experienced around the same ratio I have, with the majority having prosperous or training gear. I watched a few YouTube videos of people opening chests with their keys, and all of those who I watched ended up having very bad 'luck' with prosperous and training traits appearing. Even @Deltia suffered this, if that means anything. Lol. I don't know if these 2 traits appear so frequently due to the majority of people being below CP cap who play overall, or what. But, things are definitely not 'balanced' in regards to loot table RNG for Undaunted chests.

Note:
I haven't opened any chests on PS4 yet, as the newest changes/patch/update hasn't gone live for console players yet. But, I will definitely post my findings here upon discovering them.

The RNG in the whole game is cancerous, and I don’t care what ZOS says about this matter, as obviously most people aren’t getting what they want/need!
And those Undaunted Chests are ofc one of the worst nightmares! I opened over 300 Keys to get Grothdar with divines, and I still don’t have one, and I still didn’t open any Keys from the other two chests, so go figure! And again, whatever ZOS say or think they want to convince us, I got more than half of the drops from those chests in prosperous and training….
For ZOS I am assuming it means business, the more we need to farm keys and run dungeons, the longer we need to finish specific content and to get the gear sorted, but afterall it is ZOS-Logic! In reality, people either get deeply frustrated and leave the game, or just stop caring and move on to something else in the game. Which in both scenarios isn’t helping…
I mean it was nice and all that ZOS remodeled the traits to have more use in the game, but for endgame content why the hell are we having prosperous and training! Who is the sane generous in ZOS who though “oh, those people playing the endgame content would loooove to have training trait to level their abailities, and ofc prosperous to 8,5% more gold on legendary upgraded piece”. Well newsflash geniuses, upgrading one piece of gear to legendary costs 60k-80k gold in game, so for one piece I must loot about 1.000.000 gold to cover the cost of upgrading one piece, to be useless for me in all aspects of the game, great gob ZOS!

Dubhliam · October 2016

Salovodka wrote: »

Lol, if you're trying to be funny, you should make a chart from scratch, that way you'll at least have a chart with matching percentages.

Bryanonymous · October 2016

Salovodka wrote: »

My experience with these chests feels exactly like this both before and after the update. However, I do notice this chart is actually a shopped copy of the original, and the numbers don't add up. :P

SkylarkX · October 2016

IwakuraLain42 wrote: »

Of course the chests (and the rest of the loot system) are "rigged", but not in the way people think they are.
Remember that ESO (as are are all other MMO systems out there which are not P2W) is at it's core nothing more then a gigantic hamster wheel where we all labour to get your favorite gear. As the current iteration (One Tamriel) has no really new content to entertain us we need to be entertained by gathering new toys, which has to last (in average) for 3 months.

So the inclusion of the "useless" traits in most loot tables (training, etc) is just meant to dilute the table to far that we don't have our perfect gear in just 2 weeks. I'm pretty sure that the probabilities for all gear drops are the same (something like 12% per trait).

God forbid players should get to enjoy the majority of the time between patches rather than spend their time grinding.

hayaschwarz · October 2016

Dubhliam wrote: »

Okay... so I did some testing on the PTS for One Tamriel this time.

A small testing sample, but it does seem to confirm what Rich said.
Around 12% chance for every trait.

Saying that you drop training and prosperous 80% of the time is just simply....
not true.

On how many keys did you base your Experiment, from what I counted to you had about 150 keys, which doesn't make your Experiment valid or true!
Besides the RNG of the Drops is still affected by the 12 different shoulders in 3 different weights, which drops the Chance of obtaining the specific peice in specific trait and weight to almost 0,33%! And that's realistically the number to get what I am looking for!

Salovodka · October 2016

Bryanonymous wrote: »

My experience with these chests feels exactly like this both before and after the update. However, I do notice this chart is actually a shopped copy of the original, and the numbers don't add up. :P

master paint 80 lvl

Lord_Eomer · October 2016

If i got my all sets then PVE dungeons will be meaningless to run..

Its giving me a purpose to run, I already have VO, Aethar and Yakuda gear. I am not now rjnnif trials at all because New sets are not good and drops in blue (normal).

Trials are pretty much dead for me, dungeons are back with 1 tam update..