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Lets play a game (How to control the guild trader market)

  • Tavore1138
    Tavore1138
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    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    @Tavore1138 buying cheap and selling happens on lonely street corners. I merely talking how easily u can manipulate the market. Gold is easily obtainable in eso. In return the market can easily be control, if u have a right amount of funds.

    Supply and demands plays a huge roll in the market. Though even with that, prices can fluctuate even when demand is high. Because each trading hub as its own market, making it alot easier to buy cheap and sell from one hub to another.

    My point is that the 'right' amount of funds would be huge - in the 2 trade guilds I am in over 60 millions worth of gold tempers has shifted in the last 30 days, even guessing that there are maybe 20 serious trade guilds that would extrapolate to 600 million and that is not touching on purple/blue/green mats, runes, herbs, base materials, recipes, motifs and all the other things that sell day in day out in huge numbers. That's PC EU btw.

    Now I'll admit I have no idea how much the big trade guild leads have and whether you could get enough of them to stop trying to outbid each other for front row spots in good locations to sit down and agree to manipulate the markets but it would take a hell of a lot of money and effort to do it and anyone can undercut their pricing via smaller guild sellers anyway.

    Not denying it is possible but suggesting the scale of funds that would be needed make it unlikely - sometimes price fluctuations are just reflecting the ebb and flow of supply and demand and not a conspiracy.
    GM - Malazan
    Raid Leader - Hungry Wolves
    Legio Mortuum
  • Cryptical
    Cryptical
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    10 million
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    Well, since when do you shop at just one hub? Or even at just one kiosk?
    When you shop in your capital city, do you not check all those kiosks? Do you not take a look at the outlaw refuge in that city?
    Is it not said by many that better prices are found at the farther kiosks away from the main hubs?

    I would say that just about everyone travels far and wide across at least their alliance area of tamriel to do their shopping, so the 'herd' is already spread out.

    With 1tamriel that will make a whole-continent herd. The native EP support their hub of mournhold, which is relatively quiet for the AD DC players, because of alliance separation instancing. Soon, the native EP shoppers of mournhold will rub shoulders with the native AD shoppers of the tree and rawl'ka - making the 'herd' bigger.

    We have been in 3 separate fishbowls, AD DC EP. Fish may only grown as big as the bowl. Soon, the bowls will combine and grow, and there will be an economic motivation for guild partnerships to expand control to the other alliance zones. And it is more profitable to make an agreement between competitors to 'go easy' on the competition angle and instead do some price hiking.
    Xbox NA
  • Junipus
    Junipus
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    Tavore1138 wrote: »
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    @Tavore1138 buying cheap and selling happens on lonely street corners. I merely talking how easily u can manipulate the market. Gold is easily obtainable in eso. In return the market can easily be control, if u have a right amount of funds.

    Supply and demands plays a huge roll in the market. Though even with that, prices can fluctuate even when demand is high. Because each trading hub as its own market, making it alot easier to buy cheap and sell from one hub to another.

    My point is that the 'right' amount of funds would be huge - in the 2 trade guilds I am in over 60 millions worth of gold tempers has shifted in the last 30 days, even guessing that there are maybe 20 serious trade guilds that would extrapolate to 600 million and that is not touching on purple/blue/green mats, runes, herbs, base materials, recipes, motifs and all the other things that sell day in day out in huge numbers. That's PC EU btw.

    Now I'll admit I have no idea how much the big trade guild leads have and whether you could get enough of them to stop trying to outbid each other for front row spots in good locations to sit down and agree to manipulate the markets but it would take a hell of a lot of money and effort to do it and anyone can undercut their pricing via smaller guild sellers anyway.

    Not denying it is possible but suggesting the scale of funds that would be needed make it unlikely - sometimes price fluctuations are just reflecting the ebb and flow of supply and demand and not a conspiracy.

    Walk away mate, we're firmly in tinfoil territory here.
    The Legendary Nothing
  • Cryptical
    Cryptical
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    10 million
    Junipus wrote: »
    Tavore1138 wrote: »
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    @Tavore1138 buying cheap and selling happens on lonely street corners. I merely talking how easily u can manipulate the market. Gold is easily obtainable in eso. In return the market can easily be control, if u have a right amount of funds.

    Supply and demands plays a huge roll in the market. Though even with that, prices can fluctuate even when demand is high. Because each trading hub as its own market, making it alot easier to buy cheap and sell from one hub to another.

    My point is that the 'right' amount of funds would be huge - in the 2 trade guilds I am in over 60 millions worth of gold tempers has shifted in the last 30 days, even guessing that there are maybe 20 serious trade guilds that would extrapolate to 600 million and that is not touching on purple/blue/green mats, runes, herbs, base materials, recipes, motifs and all the other things that sell day in day out in huge numbers. That's PC EU btw.

    Now I'll admit I have no idea how much the big trade guild leads have and whether you could get enough of them to stop trying to outbid each other for front row spots in good locations to sit down and agree to manipulate the markets but it would take a hell of a lot of money and effort to do it and anyone can undercut their pricing via smaller guild sellers anyway.

    Not denying it is possible but suggesting the scale of funds that would be needed make it unlikely - sometimes price fluctuations are just reflecting the ebb and flow of supply and demand and not a conspiracy.

    Walk away mate, we're firmly in tinfoil territory here.

    It was thought that it was not possible to rig the exhaust tests, then Volkswagen was shown to have done it for years. It was thought that international interest rates were unable to be rigged, but LIBOR has been shown to be manipulated, causing overpricing to happen to the tune of trillions of dollars. People assumed that Wells Fargo was actually growing at the rate it showed on the books, but it turns out the assumption was wrong. These are real world manipulations of systems much more complex than the eso guild trader.

    Many things are assumed to be impossible due to the way a system is set up. But time and ingenuity have shown that when people assume impossibility they just aren't thinking creatively. The poll assumed that it will be done with brute force of millions of gold, when these systems are much more prone to manipulation through deftness. Sort of like how you can hit a baseball out of a park with brute strength and crappy technique, but using good technique it takes a LOT less rite strength. This is why I chose 10 million, because the guild trader system is more vulnerable to pressure-over-time manipulation due to no actual link between the true value of items and their selling price.

    People are assuming that prices at guild traders are not able to be rigged. Is anyone here going to actually claim that it cannot be done, in the face of the real world examples I gave?
    Xbox NA
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    @Cryptical I personally shop everywhere, but that doesn't mean everyone travels. Most players complain about traveling looking for one certain item. Though if your looking for yellow mats, the traders in the boonies usually have really good prices. Lately those have been bought in bunk and place in main capital hub for much higher price.

    @Junipus my tinfoil hat always get great reception when comes to trader market.
    Edited by Soundwave on October 1, 2016 3:11PM
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    Cryptical wrote: »
    Junipus wrote: »
    Tavore1138 wrote: »
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    @Tavore1138 buying cheap and selling happens on lonely street corners. I merely talking how easily u can manipulate the market. Gold is easily obtainable in eso. In return the market can easily be control, if u have a right amount of funds.

    Supply and demands plays a huge roll in the market. Though even with that, prices can fluctuate even when demand is high. Because each trading hub as its own market, making it alot easier to buy cheap and sell from one hub to another.

    My point is that the 'right' amount of funds would be huge - in the 2 trade guilds I am in over 60 millions worth of gold tempers has shifted in the last 30 days, even guessing that there are maybe 20 serious trade guilds that would extrapolate to 600 million and that is not touching on purple/blue/green mats, runes, herbs, base materials, recipes, motifs and all the other things that sell day in day out in huge numbers. That's PC EU btw.

    Now I'll admit I have no idea how much the big trade guild leads have and whether you could get enough of them to stop trying to outbid each other for front row spots in good locations to sit down and agree to manipulate the markets but it would take a hell of a lot of money and effort to do it and anyone can undercut their pricing via smaller guild sellers anyway.

    Not denying it is possible but suggesting the scale of funds that would be needed make it unlikely - sometimes price fluctuations are just reflecting the ebb and flow of supply and demand and not a conspiracy.

    Walk away mate, we're firmly in tinfoil territory here.

    It was thought that it was not possible to rig the exhaust tests, then Volkswagen was shown to have done it for years. It was thought that international interest rates were unable to be rigged, but LIBOR has been shown to be manipulated, causing overpricing to happen to the tune of trillions of dollars. People assumed that Wells Fargo was actually growing at the rate it showed on the books, but it turns out the assumption was wrong. These are real world manipulations of systems much more complex than the eso guild trader.

    Many things are assumed to be impossible due to the way a system is set up. But time and ingenuity have shown that when people assume impossibility they just aren't thinking creatively. The poll assumed that it will be done with brute force of millions of gold, when these systems are much more prone to manipulation through deftness. Sort of like how you can hit a baseball out of a park with brute strength and crappy technique, but using good technique it takes a LOT less rite strength. This is why I chose 10 million, because the guild trader system is more vulnerable to pressure-over-time manipulation due to no actual link between the true value of items and their selling price.

    People are assuming that prices at guild traders are not able to be rigged. Is anyone here going to actually claim that it cannot be done, in the face of the real world examples I gave?

    Its all about having advantage over your competitor even if its wrong or right, it all comes down to making a profit. If a profit doesn't a emerge, what the point to keep doing? In eso, its points to have a lot of gold and nothing to spend it on.
  • jedtb16_ESO
    jedtb16_ESO
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    Cryptical wrote: »
    Junipus wrote: »
    Tavore1138 wrote: »
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    @Tavore1138 buying cheap and selling happens on lonely street corners. I merely talking how easily u can manipulate the market. Gold is easily obtainable in eso. In return the market can easily be control, if u have a right amount of funds.

    Supply and demands plays a huge roll in the market. Though even with that, prices can fluctuate even when demand is high. Because each trading hub as its own market, making it alot easier to buy cheap and sell from one hub to another.

    My point is that the 'right' amount of funds would be huge - in the 2 trade guilds I am in over 60 millions worth of gold tempers has shifted in the last 30 days, even guessing that there are maybe 20 serious trade guilds that would extrapolate to 600 million and that is not touching on purple/blue/green mats, runes, herbs, base materials, recipes, motifs and all the other things that sell day in day out in huge numbers. That's PC EU btw.

    Now I'll admit I have no idea how much the big trade guild leads have and whether you could get enough of them to stop trying to outbid each other for front row spots in good locations to sit down and agree to manipulate the markets but it would take a hell of a lot of money and effort to do it and anyone can undercut their pricing via smaller guild sellers anyway.

    Not denying it is possible but suggesting the scale of funds that would be needed make it unlikely - sometimes price fluctuations are just reflecting the ebb and flow of supply and demand and not a conspiracy.

    Walk away mate, we're firmly in tinfoil territory here.

    It was thought that it was not possible to rig the exhaust tests, then Volkswagen was shown to have done it for years. It was thought that international interest rates were unable to be rigged, but LIBOR has been shown to be manipulated, causing overpricing to happen to the tune of trillions of dollars. People assumed that Wells Fargo was actually growing at the rate it showed on the books, but it turns out the assumption was wrong. These are real world manipulations of systems much more complex than the eso guild trader.

    Many things are assumed to be impossible due to the way a system is set up. But time and ingenuity have shown that when people assume impossibility they just aren't thinking creatively. The poll assumed that it will be done with brute force of millions of gold, when these systems are much more prone to manipulation through deftness. Sort of like how you can hit a baseball out of a park with brute strength and crappy technique, but using good technique it takes a LOT less rite strength. This is why I chose 10 million, because the guild trader system is more vulnerable to pressure-over-time manipulation due to no actual link between the true value of items and their selling price.

    People are assuming that prices at guild traders are not able to be rigged. Is anyone here going to actually claim that it cannot be done, in the face of the real world examples I gave?

    hmm.... to truly corner the market one would also have to corner the means of production. possible?

    i'm not sure who it is you think was claiming that the real world examples you gave were impossible.

    the whole point about an effective cartel is that it needs to control the means of production and distribution. so, speaking as a farmer of all things in game, i am wondering just how my activities would be controlled by a guild. i am also, reasonably, sure that there a many other players who operate in a similar manner.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    Controlling rare material thats a big gamble, I wouldn't take it with the current rng system in place.
  • Cryptical
    Cryptical
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    10 million
    hmm.... to truly corner the market one would also have to corner the means of production. possible?

    i'm not sure who it is you think was claiming that the real world examples you gave were impossible.

    the whole point about an effective cartel is that it needs to control the means of production and distribution. so, speaking as a farmer of all things in game, i am wondering just how my activities would be controlled by a guild. i am also, reasonably, sure that there a many other players who operate in a similar manner.
    We aren't talking about cornering the market. We are talking about manipulating it.

    To be the dominant power in the market if product X one need only control a significantly larger share of the flow of that product than anyone else.

    No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up tempers, if you control the store then the tempers will come to you.

    No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up all the store spaces, if the great majority of people hit a certain 15ish stores then those 15 are where the money is - where the money flows through.

    And if the farther-afield stores take their cues from the 15 most busy stores, then any manipulation that happens in those 15 will have a domino ripple effect outward throughout the remaining.

    So price manipulation in the 15 stores of, for example, Elden root and rawl'ka would ripple out through the rest of the system.
    Xbox NA
  • jedtb16_ESO
    jedtb16_ESO
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    Cryptical wrote: »
    hmm.... to truly corner the market one would also have to corner the means of production. possible?

    i'm not sure who it is you think was claiming that the real world examples you gave were impossible.

    the whole point about an effective cartel is that it needs to control the means of production and distribution. so, speaking as a farmer of all things in game, i am wondering just how my activities would be controlled by a guild. i am also, reasonably, sure that there a many other players who operate in a similar manner.
    We aren't talking about cornering the market. We are talking about manipulating it.

    To be the dominant power in the market if product X one need only control a significantly larger share of the flow of that product than anyone else.

    No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up tempers, if you control the store then the tempers will come to you.

    No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up all the store spaces, if the great majority of people hit a certain 15ish stores then those 15 are where the money is - where the money flows through.

    And if the farther-afield stores take their cues from the 15 most busy stores, then any manipulation that happens in those 15 will have a domino ripple effect outward throughout the remaining.

    So price manipulation in the 15 stores of, for example, Elden root and rawl'ka would ripple out through the rest of the system.

    no.

    everyone trading, to an extent, manipulates the market.

    and you say 'No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up tempers, if you control the store then the tempers will come to you' this is not coherent.

    again controlling the flow means you have to control the farmers... i think that would be akin to herding cats.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    @jedtb16_ESO the problem with controlling the farming is guild traders. To many variables and out comes to control them. An auction house would make it easier though. For instance I am farmer and to afford me u would have pay me an hourly rate for farming and since u can manipulate the market easily, hourly rate can vary from one capital to another.

    @Cryptical while dude above makes a good argument base on the farming aspect of eso. Rare material concept of eso is too dependent on the rng system. Making it difficult to control the farmers.
  • jedtb16_ESO
    jedtb16_ESO
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    Soundwave wrote: »
    @jedtb16_ESO the problem with controlling the farming is guild traders. To many variables and out comes to control them. An auction house would make it easier though. For instance I am farmer and to afford me u would have pay me an hourly rate for farming and since u can manipulate the market easily, hourly rate can vary from one capital to another.

    @Cryptical while dude above makes a good argument base on the farming aspect of eso. Rare material concept of eso is too dependent on the rng system. Making it difficult to control the farmers.

    the traders have no influence over the farmers.

    i am a farmer... i can sell without a guild.

    an auction house makes manipulating/cornering a market ridiculously easy.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @jedtb16_ESO the problem with controlling the farming is guild traders. To many variables and out comes to control them. An auction house would make it easier though. For instance I am farmer and to afford me u would have pay me an hourly rate for farming and since u can manipulate the market easily, hourly rate can vary from one capital to another.

    @Cryptical while dude above makes a good argument base on the farming aspect of eso. Rare material concept of eso is too dependent on the rng system. Making it difficult to control the farmers.

    the traders have no influence over the farmers.

    i am a farmer... i can sell without a guild.

    an auction house makes manipulating/cornering a market ridiculously easy.

    For a price I would be someone farming ***, 200k an hour I could be influence.

    I could manipulate the market on Xbox na just with 10 million. Just gotta buy everything yellow everyday until u have no gold left. Then wait for people to restock, market would rise and then resell your merchandise in stacks of 8 on five differs traders. Dont even have to touch anything else, yellow mats is the true currency of tamriel.
  • jedtb16_ESO
    jedtb16_ESO
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    Soundwave wrote: »
    Soundwave wrote: »
    @jedtb16_ESO the problem with controlling the farming is guild traders. To many variables and out comes to control them. An auction house would make it easier though. For instance I am farmer and to afford me u would have pay me an hourly rate for farming and since u can manipulate the market easily, hourly rate can vary from one capital to another.

    @Cryptical while dude above makes a good argument base on the farming aspect of eso. Rare material concept of eso is too dependent on the rng system. Making it difficult to control the farmers.

    the traders have no influence over the farmers.

    i am a farmer... i can sell without a guild.

    an auction house makes manipulating/cornering a market ridiculously easy.

    For a price I would be someone farming ***, 200k an hour I could be influence.

    I could manipulate the market on Xbox na just with 10 million. Just gotta buy everything yellow everyday until u have no gold left. Then wait for people to restock, market would rise and then resell your merchandise in stacks of 8 on five differs traders. Dont even have to touch anything else, yellow mats is the true currency of tamriel.

    only if no-one else is farming
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    See thats the problem with console right now, supply is down because farmers aren't farming.

    But even with farmers, its easier to control the market; more supplies. It just going cost a lot of gold to keep it going. Thats y we r playing this game in the first place.
  • Cryptical
    Cryptical
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    10 million
    Cryptical wrote: »
    hmm.... to truly corner the market one would also have to corner the means of production. possible?

    i'm not sure who it is you think was claiming that the real world examples you gave were impossible.

    the whole point about an effective cartel is that it needs to control the means of production and distribution. so, speaking as a farmer of all things in game, i am wondering just how my activities would be controlled by a guild. i am also, reasonably, sure that there a many other players who operate in a similar manner.
    We aren't talking about cornering the market. We are talking about manipulating it.

    To be the dominant power in the market if product X one need only control a significantly larger share of the flow of that product than anyone else.

    No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up tempers, if you control the store then the tempers will come to you.

    No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up all the store spaces, if the great majority of people hit a certain 15ish stores then those 15 are where the money is - where the money flows through.

    And if the farther-afield stores take their cues from the 15 most busy stores, then any manipulation that happens in those 15 will have a domino ripple effect outward throughout the remaining.

    So price manipulation in the 15 stores of, for example, Elden root and rawl'ka would ripple out through the rest of the system.

    no.

    everyone trading, to an extent, manipulates the market.

    and you say 'No need to go out and spend effort / capital to buy up tempers, if you control the store then the tempers will come to you' this is not coherent.

    again controlling the flow means you have to control the farmers... i think that would be akin to herding cats.

    Not coherent? You don't understand the idea of many flows converging into one bottleneck? Are you serious?

    If you wanted to choke the flow of Florida orange juice, would you hire 50k people to around to all the trees in Florida or would you hire 1k people to patrol the roads at the border?

    Same concept, if you want to choke the flow of some big commodity in tamriel, would you try to go around to a the farmers or would you go to the places that the farmers will use to move the product: the trader kiosk?

    It's not a hard concept.

    Another fatal flaw the trader-defenders have is they overestimate how much pressure must be applied in order to get a commodity to start a curve upward. I'll give a real world example. Yellow materials and oil are both consumable products. They are farmed and as they enter the marketplace they travel through bottleneck areas. For mats, the areas are the trading hubs, and you seem to think that a manipulator must control everything before manipulation can happen. In reality, the segment needed is much smaller. Example, about 15% of the marketplace has oil moving through the strait of Hormuz. There is no bigger bottleneck on the planet, manipulating oil flow through just that spot will still not touch the other 85% of oil. Yet, 15% is so large that the USA has assassinated foreign officials over that mere 15%. Mossadeq.

    You don't know basic bottlenecks, so you didn't really have a clue about how the guild traders are the bottleneck in tamriel's economy. And you have no perception of what counts as 'enough' or 'negligible' pressure at that bottleneck to manipulate prices. So you really have nothing constructive to add to this conversation.
    Xbox NA
  • jedtb16_ESO
    jedtb16_ESO
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    ✭✭
    Soundwave wrote: »
    See thats the problem with console right now, supply is down because farmers aren't farming.

    But even with farmers, its easier to control the market; more supplies. It just going cost a lot of gold to keep it going. Thats y we r playing this game in the first place.

    hey bud.... i think we are saying much the same thing from different directions.

    how about we call it an honourable draw?
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
    ✭✭✭
    1 billion
    Soundwave wrote: »
    See thats the problem with console right now, supply is down because farmers aren't farming.

    But even with farmers, its easier to control the market; more supplies. It just going cost a lot of gold to keep it going. Thats y we r playing this game in the first place.

    hey bud.... i think we are saying much the same thing from different directions.

    how about we call it an honourable draw?

    I am farmer at heart, its relaxing to me. But i also agree u can control the market by cutting off the supply and controlling the demand. Forcing price to rise in your favor. Like @Cryptical stated bottleneck, its something that is happening on console as we speak.

    For me I just prefer to play the guild trader market, I find everything in game just blah anymore.
  • disintegr8
    disintegr8
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    wolfxspice wrote: »
    disintegr8 wrote: »
    Who cares?

    i care, temp alloys are at 25k+ on xbox na right now, its ridiculous
    If you cannot be bothered going and getting them yourself, you have to pay the market rate. The person selling them was able to get them and so can you. There are also plenty of ways to make/earn gold to pay for them but it looks like you probably don't want to do that either.


    Australian on PS4 NA server.
    Everyone's entitled to an opinion.
  • Cryptical
    Cryptical
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    10 million
    i am a farmer... i can sell without a guild.

    Yes you can sell without a guild.

    But you can't reach people 24/7 without a guild.
    You can't reach people while sleeping.
    You can't reach people while at work.
    You can't reach people while doing the undaunted pledges.
    You can't reach people while running around doing the farming.

    Let's point that one out again: the farmer cannot walk around the crowd selling while out doing the farming.

    The guild is the enabler that carries your product to the masses while you are doing other things. And that is why the guild trader is the bottleneck that the manipulators take advantage of.

    Don't think the kiosk is all that important? Try doing your selling without one.
    Edited by Cryptical on October 1, 2016 11:28PM
    Xbox NA
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    So 10m u can make impact
    100m u manipulate the market in your favor
    1 billion might be overkill
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