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Lets play a game (How to control the guild trader market)

Soundwave
Soundwave
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Over the pass couple of months, discussions have risen about guilds trying to control the market. How much would it cost and is it even possible? Everyone has their theories...

P.S. DAMNIT...i wasn't down with the poll option's.
Edited by Soundwave on September 30, 2016 11:43PM

Lets play a game (How to control the guild trader market) 65 votes

10 million
16%
ssewallb14_ESOtimidobserverCh4mpTWViveunAcsvfTravestynoxJailbirdyimdoinkCrypticalBruhItsOver9000GDOFWR420 11 votes
100 million
29%
JsmallsEdenprimeDaraughSunverStilliansadownikLupusdiabolusJaronkingRebornV3xdjs0130SkinzzVangyPandoriiParaNostramEryasBryanonymousspud1639Lumbermill_EmperorL0rd0fAngmar 19 votes
1 billion
53%
hedna123b14_ESOTonnopesceanitajoneb17_ESOinf.toniceb17_ESONifty2gTheDarkRulerkongkimAlnilamEEdziuSneaky-SnurrMarkusTheValiantEasily_LostSolid_MetalAriokoSanLexxypwnsstrikeback1247LightninvashViridisVolpesFleetwoodSmackLadyNalcarya 35 votes
  • Nirnrotten
    Nirnrotten
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    1 billion
    In order to keep key traders, buy out all the goods that are undercutting "market value", and bribe/bully others to do the same? Yeah I think my figure is the most correct if such a thing really is possible.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    In theory if had over a billion u could pay players a 100k a week. Lets say a guild of 100, bid on a trader out in the boonies. Have your members buy out every yellow mat everywhere every day. Then set the price and keep buying mats everyday. Remember to advertise where trader is located in chat.
    Edited by Soundwave on September 30, 2016 11:56PM
  • disintegr8
    disintegr8
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    Who cares?
    Australian on PS4 NA server.
    Everyone's entitled to an opinion.
  • wolfxspice
    wolfxspice
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    disintegr8 wrote: »
    Who cares?

    i care, temp alloys are at 25k+ on xbox na right now, its ridiculous
    I'm a casual now
  • AlnilamE
    AlnilamE
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    1 billion
    It depends on what you mean by "control".

    If you mean hiring all the traders in the towns in the 16 normal zones plus the DLCs (3 more zones), that's about 90 traders. This is not including outlaw refuges and out of town locations.

    You would need:
    - 90 Guilds that have at least 50 people (because that unlocks the Guild Store)
    - Between 500-1.5 million times 90 for bidding, so let's average a million for 90 million in bids.

    That's for one week.

    How long would you like to do this for?
    The Moot Councillor
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    I personally love the idea of guild traders, I have nothing against them. What I am against is how others try to manipulate the market in their favor. Yes I understand u can buy low and sell high. I do it all the time. But its how top traders go the extra mile to control kiosk spots.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    AlnilamE wrote: »
    It depends on what you mean by "control".

    If you mean hiring all the traders in the towns in the 16 normal zones plus the DLCs (3 more zones), that's about 90 traders. This is not including outlaw refuges and out of town locations.

    You would need:
    - 90 Guilds that have at least 50 people (because that unlocks the Guild Store)
    - Between 500-1.5 million times 90 for bidding, so let's average a million for 90 million in bids.

    That's for one week.

    How long would you like to do this for?

    I accidently hit the post button on my phone and couldn't explain it more in depth, sry.

    I more looking at how easy it would be if u have the funds to manipulate the market by controlling items. While other believe its not possible, I beg to differ. Control certain items, u can control the market.
  • alexkdd99
    alexkdd99
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    1 billion
    wolfxspice wrote: »
    disintegr8 wrote: »
    Who cares?

    i care, temp alloys are at 25k+ on xbox na right now, its ridiculous

    Not from this though. This happened once couple months ago, but recently it is just the going rate for upgrade mats.

    When the few people did buy up all the gold upgrade mats the prices normalized after just a couple weeks.

    People are just selling at the going rate for upgrade mats currently.

    Also I would expect the price to see another decent jump when one Tamriel releases.
  • Runs
    Runs
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    AlnilamE wrote: »
    It depends on what you mean by "control".

    If you mean hiring all the traders in the towns in the 16 normal zones plus the DLCs (3 more zones), that's about 90 traders. This is not including outlaw refuges and out of town locations.

    You would need:
    - 90 Guilds that have at least 50 people (because that unlocks the Guild Store)
    - Between 500-1.5 million times 90 for bidding, so let's average a million for 90 million in bids.

    That's for one week.

    How long would you like to do this for?

    To add to this, assuming 90 million was the total... The "Cartel" would have to make 25,714,281,572(over 25 Billion) in sales to break even for the 90 million that was used for bids.
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  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    alexkdd99 wrote: »
    wolfxspice wrote: »
    disintegr8 wrote: »
    Who cares?

    i care, temp alloys are at 25k+ on xbox na right now, its ridiculous

    Not from this though. This happened once couple months ago, but recently it is just the going rate for upgrade mats.

    When the few people did buy up all the gold upgrade mats the prices normalized after just a couple weeks.

    People are just selling at the going rate for upgrade mats currently.

    Also I would expect the price to see another decent jump when one Tamriel releases.

    On the console side with many different games coming out this holiday I can see prices fluctuate a lot. 30 to 40k is probably possible. Sry Xbox users...
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    @Runs is 25 billion in a week in sales even possible.
  • silvereyes
    silvereyes
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    Soundwave wrote: »
    @Runs is 25 billion in a week in sales even possible.

    I would say not right now. Typical rawlkha sales for the biggest guilds are in the 100mil+ range. Even if every kiosk in the game had those numbers, it still would not be even half of 25 bil.
    Edited by silvereyes on October 1, 2016 2:48AM
  • silvereyes
    silvereyes
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    alexkdd99 wrote: »
    People are just selling at the going rate for upgrade mats currently.
    This. Console needs more farmers, hirelings, and writ crafters would be my guess. Too many patches in a row with major changes to bis gear has demand sky high.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    So controlling guild traders wouldn't be the best option at controlling the market. Another theory is a trader cartel, in theory it could cause problems. Though one rich mofo could cause some major strife, by basically controlling the flow of high end mats.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    silvereyes wrote: »
    alexkdd99 wrote: »
    People are just selling at the going rate for upgrade mats currently.
    This. Console needs more farmers, hirelings, and writ crafters would be my guess. Too many patches in a row with major changes to bis gear has demand sky high.

    The problem with console in the coming months, bf1, final fantasy 15, cod (sadly), gears of war 4 Xbox and titanfall. These all will reduce population and will cause some stress on the market. The dedicated will be around, but floaters will not else where. Especially the farmers...
  • RebornV3x
    RebornV3x
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    100 million
    you don't even have to buyout all the guild traders all you have to do is just have one guild trader and just buy out every guilds most valuable items and resell them at a higher price which is what is happening on Xbox One NA currently theres a group of individuals that have been going around buying up all yellow upgrade mats and reselling them for a higher price thats why prices for temps are out of control
    Xbox One - NA GT: RebornV3x
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  • AmberLaTerra
    AmberLaTerra
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    1 billion
    this number is actually pretty low as controlling all the hot spot traders, and buying up any items they undercut the prices would blow through that in about 10 weeks or so.

    However on the other side of the coin as little as 10 million could easily price manipulate a global auction house.

    So let's see which is better, a system that even the ultra rich could only manipulate for a few weeks, or one that even the semi rich could manipulate forever?

    Yeah the trader system is the way to go clearly as it is better for prices in the long run for everyone. In a global auction house you could easily see 50-75k tempering alloys withing a week or two of introduction.
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  • Bryanonymous
    Bryanonymous
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    100 million
    These things are not done by individuals, but by likeminded groups of leaders who are dedicated towards economic conquest. 100 million would be enough to get started, however it's the sustained profits that keep it going.
  • Viveun
    Viveun
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    10 million
    You could theoretically manipulate a specific segment of the market without great personal wealth. Just takes a lot of time, constant flipping, and coordination with others.

    When the obvious collusion happened a month and a half ago, the market quickly stabilized itself. Tempers shot up to 20k for a week, then fell back down to 16-17k within two weeks. That being said, I don't blame the current state of the Xbox market on this same conspiracy. Mostly because the price hikes we're experiencing right now isn't just confined to yellow upgrade mats. It's across the board on all repeat consumables. Alchemy reagents have inflated at a rate far higher than tempers (Bugloss shot up from 150 to 300-500, for example). Perfect roe is hitting 20k. Ambrosias have gone up from 3.5 to 5+ - despite the disappearing grind from lvl 50 to CP 160. Kutas have steadily recovered from 7-8k back up to 11-13k. Potions are through the roof.

    I'd wager this is more so a case of hyper inflation. Not saying it's not being perpetuated by the wealthy few, but I'd take the tinfoil hats off and accept that MMO markets are historically susceptible to this kind of market shift.
    Edited by Viveun on October 1, 2016 7:13AM
  • Altaire
    Altaire
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    2 dollar, and I still feel I'm getting rip-off
  • jedtb16_ESO
    jedtb16_ESO
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    Viveun wrote: »
    You could theoretically manipulate a specific segment of the market without great personal wealth. Just takes a lot of time, constant flipping, and coordination with others.

    When the obvious collusion happened a month and a half ago, the market quickly stabilized itself. Tempers shot up to 20k for a week, then fell back down to 16-17k within two weeks. That being said, I don't blame the current state of the Xbox market on this same conspiracy. Mostly because the price hikes we're experiencing right now isn't just confined to yellow upgrade mats. It's across the board on all repeat consumables. Alchemy reagents have inflated at a rate far higher than tempers (Bugloss shot up from 150 to 300-500, for example). Perfect roe is hitting 20k. Ambrosias have gone up from 3.5 to 5+ - despite the disappearing grind from lvl 50 to CP 160. Kutas have steadily recovered from 7-8k back up to 11-13k. Potions are through the roof.

    I'd wager this is more so a case of hyper inflation. Not saying it's not being perpetuated by the wealthy few, but I'd take the tinfoil hats off and accept that MMO markets are historically susceptible to this kind of market shift.

    agree with this ^

    plus it depends on the supply. if people are not farming and doing writs there is not so much stuff available so the prices will rise. the solution is in your hands...
  • Elmour0Fudd
    Elmour0Fudd
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    Soundwave wrote: »
    AlnilamE wrote: »
    It depends on what you mean by "control".

    If you mean hiring all the traders in the towns in the 16 normal zones plus the DLCs (3 more zones), that's about 90 traders. This is not including outlaw refuges and out of town locations.

    You would need:
    - 90 Guilds that have at least 50 people (because that unlocks the Guild Store)
    - Between 500-1.5 million times 90 for bidding, so let's average a million for 90 million in bids.

    That's for one week.

    How long would you like to do this for?

    I accidently hit the post button on my phone and couldn't explain it more in depth, sry.

    I more looking at how easy it would be if u have the funds to manipulate the market by controlling items. While other believe its not possible, I beg to differ. Control certain items, u can control the market.

    and would be fairly simple if your the only guild doing this, but as that will never happen because there are quite a few trader guild's.
    if you wanted to really mess things up just go for all the top level materials,
    but again same applies.

    it's seen in RL and the game mimics this but in a much more limited way.

    but as i'm new to the game type and am still learning, take anything said with that in mind.
    all I can say is that my opinion is formed from direct experience in game, and the issues observed.
    so is a little limited but honest, and all advice is useful good or bad

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  • Tavore1138
    Tavore1138
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    Control the spice and you control the universe?

    I think you'd need serious gold to do this if it is even possible at all - most of the market variations we see can normally be explained by current or upcoming changes made by ZoS (i.e. general rise in mat prices after crafting bags dropped... why? because more people are simply sitting on their mats instead of selling them to clear bank/inventory space) or the results of exploits (i.e. the dropping of prices of all survey gatherable mats when the map exploit was going on).

    I'm sure that trade wars are being fought between guilds and groups of guilds and I am sure that people with lots of cash will buy cheap and sell for more if they can but the sheer scale and number of transactions makes it very hard for a single group to actually control the market...

    /the spice must flow...
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  • Cryptical
    Cryptical
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    10 million
    Naysayers are not taking into consideration that people are like herd animals - get a (relative) few moving in a direction and those around them also move. Keep the movement going, and the entire herd changes location.

    Look at prices, how they congregate around a 'location'. Pc can see this right on their screen with historical mm add on data. Get some people to make a noticeable movement higher, watch others who can see that movement also move higher, and the entire herd starts to move to higher prices.

    A mere 10 million can do this, with a handful of people, because location in a major trading hub will make their price movements noticeable to many others.
    Xbox NA
  • LegendaryArcher
    LegendaryArcher
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    AlnilamE wrote: »
    You would need:
    - 90 Guilds that have at least 50 people (because that unlocks the Guild Store)
    - Between 500-1.5 million times 90 for bidding, so let's average a million for 90 million in bids.

    You're very far off. That's maybe Reaper's March prices, or other places where no one goes unless they're looking for that one very expensive item. But few end-game players will go to Reaper's just to buy potions or mats.

    Undaunted zone bids are somewhere around 4 - 5M. If you want a well-positioned trader, like Atin in Wayrest, that's easily 8M.

    You don't wanna know how much guilds bid in Craglorn to stay where they are. And yes, *cough* *Cartel* *cough*

    Talking about PC EU here.
    Edited by LegendaryArcher on October 1, 2016 11:56AM
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  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    @Cryptical u make a valid point, although thats just one hub. Does the herd affect other market hubs around tamriel or just that one.

    @Tavore1138 buying cheap and selling happens on lonely street corners. I merely talking how easily u can manipulate the market. Gold is easily obtainable in eso. In return the market can easily be control, if u have a right amount of funds.

    Supply and demands plays a huge roll in the market. Though even with that, prices can fluctuate even when demand is high. Because each trading hub as its own market, making it alot easier to buy cheap and sell from one hub to another.
  • Soundwave
    Soundwave
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    1 billion
    AlnilamE wrote: »
    You would need:
    - 90 Guilds that have at least 50 people (because that unlocks the Guild Store)
    - Between 500-1.5 million times 90 for bidding, so let's average a million for 90 million in bids.

    You're very far off. That's maybe Reaper's March prices, or other places where no one goes unless they're looking for that one very expensive item. But few end-game players will go to Reaper's just to buy potions or mats.

    Undaunted zone bids are somewhere around 4 - 5M. If you want a well-positioned trader, like Atin in Wayrest, that's easily 8M.

    You don't wanna know how much guilds bid in Craglorn to stay where they are. And yes, *cough* *Cartel* *cough*

    Talking about PC EU here.

    I think removing guild bids and adding a drop menu for multiple guilds in one location kiosk would stop the rumor trader cartels.
  • TequilaFire
    TequilaFire
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    On the gold mats issue, all ZOS would have to do is increase the drop rate for a while to normalize the market.
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