ZOS Claims to Use "Hard Data" for Balancing

Dagoth_Rac · September 2016

What the devs and most players see:

What the absolute best PvP players see:

Notice how the small differences become exaggerated when only looking at the extreme far end of the data? That is what is happening here. The differences between the different armor types are actually quite small. But even a small advantage is a huge deal when fighting the best players in the game. When you are a top PvP player, and you are going on streaks of 75 kills versus 3 deaths, those 3 deaths are probably not from some scrub n00b who got lucky. It is probably from another really good player. And really good players know how to take advantage of even the slightest differences.

The large amount of customization you can do with classes and races and gear is a big appeal in an RPG. It gives you an enormous amount of flexibility and setup choices. But when there are thousands and thousands of ways to build out and gear your character, some are going to be better than others. And a build that is even just a little bit better can be a daunting weapon in the hands of a really good player.

xellink · September 2016

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

The large amount of customization you can do with classes and races and gear is a big appeal in an RPG. It gives you an enormous amount of flexibility and setup choices. But when there are thousands and thousands of ways to build out and gear your character, some are going to be better than others. And a build that is even just a little bit better can be a daunting weapon in the hands of a really good player.

We are the 99%...

To be fair, lag in cyro, non organised pvp, zerg-rush, broken skill mechanics, etc are more likely to get you killed than player skill.

GoldenKitsune · September 2016

There are some thing I noticed after reading the whole threat and I would like to take up one more small piece of it. Native language isn't English so bear with me.

Everyone is discussing the ways that how the data analysis can be made more accurate or why it isn't.
For it to be accurate the problem with the fps/latency issues needs to be addressed so everyone (the players) can have an easier time actually gathering data. (Those who are experienced and know a thing or two about how managing an MMO works or started to learn how it works from experience they had so far and how/why things change or willing to learn at least.)

The second problem with people having a certain image depending on what race/class they play etc is not because they played other MMO's. It because they didn't.
I bet most of the players of the game started playing the game thanks to the previous installments, which of course were not MMOs. This game got advertised because it was ''just like a tes game'' so that promise attracted a portion of the 5mil people that got the game in the first place. Like myself. I may as well just be biased but just a thought to consider.

The devs are engaging in conversation so that is a step forward rather than us knowing nothing. Though some might argue against the notion weather from negative response or that we are not entitled to an explanation.... The conversation needs to be more detailed imo so we can talk on it and pin point some key elements that are being debated. So far most of the comments have been respectful and mature so I'II dare assume we can manage that.

Another thing I agree is that the updates for both pve and pvp needs to be separate. I don't know if that's possible or even if it that Zos would consider doing it. They are both (pve&pvp) their own thing. They function differently. That's why there are so many difference in opinion about an ability update, because it effects both sides, while an update might be good for one side it may not be that good for the other in a different circumstance.

There just is no need to lash out like the game is in a desperate situation and they'II ''pull the plug'' or that it is perfect and those who don't like it needs to leave. I started playing it February 2015 and I would very much like to continue playing it for years. So there needs to be ''hard data'' shared with public or made a thorough research on it that the problems can get fixed rather then ''patched'' and hope nothing happens until it does.

Peace.
(I would also very much like to see a more responsive Support so that no one is left in a tight spot.)

RAGUNAnoOne · September 2016

One of the issues is that hard data can only get you so far if they don't have people actively exploring the game to reinforce or disproove that data then it is like not accounting for taxes in your finances

smacx250 · September 2016

Particularly from the PvP and end-game PvE side, what we do not see, and which ZOS probably sees quite largely, is the overall character demographics. For example, for quite some time stam was really ignored and not well supported in the game. The majority of players naturally ended up focused on magicka based characters. Remember Elder Skirts or Elder Staffs Online? Given all the effort spent by ZOS on stam as of late (due to player dissatisfaction with having to play with LA and/or staffs), ZOS seeks to balance the overall character demographic of mag/stam. The competitive part of the playerbase is very keen on imbalance and is quick to shift. So as ZOS adjusts the stam/magicka power balance to bring the character demographics into equality, the competitive playerbase shifts very quickly and sees the new imbalance as a lasting, inexplicable imbalance, while the overall character base is less aware, and is only gradually shifting. The current power imbalance is likely all part of the overall plan, and not stupidity or an innate preference for one way vs the other. It's just that your may be part of the crowd that is most in tune with balance and is the most agile to adapt to the change. Give it time, and the balance will change as the overall player base eventually does (power in inverse relation to the characterbase). At least, that is what I keep telling myself!

Pandorii · September 2016

What are the chances that the percentage breakdown of players wearing LA, MA, and HA are the same for the entire population in PC NA and only in PvP? They're literally both at 32% HA, 33% LA, and 35% MA. Could it be that the data points are the same for both categories?

I love the idea of having devs share data like this - as an indirect attempt to justify or explain their decisions. I want to be nice so that they will provide more, I really do... However, I'd rather see words than data, because I'm also of the camp that data is meaningless without context. Unfortunately, this descriptive data is not sufficient to prove that HA is not out-performing MA and LA (typical DPS sets). It would take a more complex analysis involving comparison of sets with different series of buffs and foods, etc. Just because more people 'prefer'/are wearing MA and LA than HA does not mean that it's not performing better than them. It could just be that people haven't gotten around to switching yet. Ok... it could be a gajillion reasons. I won't try to speculate.

Data is so fun though.

Wish I could play with ESO data.

Dredlord · September 2016

Thelon wrote: »

ZOS_GinaBruno wrote: »

Feedback from everyone is one very important part, but we also look at hard data and how a change would affect every other part of the game.

Honestly Gina, I've enjoyed many conversations with you and various Devs since Beta. But the claim that you're using "hard data" to determine the affects of various changes is laughable considering the current state of your game.

*****

What hard data did you examine when balancing the CP system? Do passives like unchained look balanced to you?

What hard data did you examine when implementing Battle Spirit, especially in relation to class defining skills like Dragon Blood?

What hard data did you use when implementing a no CP campaign? Did you adjust Streak / Dodge penalties to compensate for 0 CP PvP?

What hard data did you use when implementing crutch sets like Shield breaker? Did you adjust this set after nerfing sorc shields?

What hard data did you use when setting shield duration at 6 seconds? Are your matrices showing an acceptable number of MagSorcs in Cyrodiil?

What hard data did you use when implementing proc sets like Valendrith and Viper? Do you feel these sets increase or decrease the importance of player skill in ESO?

What hard data did you use when buffing heavy armor? If your data is reliable and / or your ability to interpret this data is satisfactory, why are HA sets like Black Rose so popular among damage dealers?

What hard data did you use when buffing Soul Assault? Is another long-range, undodgeable beam encouraging or discouraging smart counter-play in ESO's PvP?

What hard data did you use that allowed gap closers to exist in their current state? Has banning players for using a mechanic you developed helped to address the underlying mechanical issues?

What hard data did you use to balance Masters and Maelstrom weapons for Magicka and Stamina users? Do you feel that Magicka users benefit from their vMA weapons as much as Stamina users do from theirs?

What hard data did you use when deciding that multiple poisons should apply on one person? Do you feel zerglings need additional advantages to be successful in 20 v 2 situations?

What hard data did you use when implementing Rally and Vigour? Do you feel stam builds need a burst heal from their offensive weapon (Rally) and a passive heal (Vigour) whose ticks surpasses a DKs burst heal?

What hard data did you use when deciding that Bound Armor would remain a toggle? That Storm Atronach would be the only Atronach in the game that can be CC'd?

What hard data did you reference that led you to decide that Streak should be the only CLASS DEFINING SKILL in the game that punishes the user for casting it more than once? Why is the same not true for other class defining skills like cloak, BoL and Wings?

*****

I hope you understand why the community might have a tough time understanding your use of "hard data." The current state of ESO leads me to believe that either:

a) you don't use hard data, or
b) you do use hard data, but lack the competence to use it effectively, or
c) you do use hard data and have the competence to use it effectively, but lack the monetary incentive to do so

"Men are more important than tools. If you don't believe so, put a good tool into the hands of a poor workman."
- John J. Bernet

Almost all good changes in the context of the game at the time.

Judging by the extent and variety of your concerns this looks like a L2P problem.

Khaos_Bane · September 2016

FENGRUSH wrote: »

Khaos_Bane wrote: »

FENGRUSH wrote: »

Khaos_Bane wrote: »

FENGRUSH wrote: »

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

I probably shouldn't respond to such a post, but gotta jump in. We do use data and compare that to player feedback and our own experiences on live. Players always assume that what they see is what everyone is doing... that is a very dangerous assumption. Let's take a more detailed look at question #7... (even though its trolly)

"What hard data did you use when buffing heavy armor? If your data is reliable and / or your ability to interpret this data is satisfactory, why are HA sets like Black Rose so popular among damage dealers?"

Note: I'm only using NA PC data for a quick example... I don't have the time to wait for the report to parse all 180+ GB of data for all platforms.

Current armor bias of ALL players on NA PC:

Current armor bias of ONLY PVP players on NA PC

.. and now just for fun, here's the bias of all PVP players on NA PC with 501+ CP.

So in general, heavy isn't as popular as everyone thinks in PVP, especially at the higher end CP. The changes to heavy armor have swung things much closer to what I would call overall parity than ever before. There is still room for improvement however, especially when we start digging into things like class armor bias breakdowns. (i.e. - DK generally prefer heavy over all other armor types...etc)

Can we get a graph of players who die to jesus beam vs anything else?

Is this what you are struggling with now @FENGRUSH ? First it was the OP healing, not it's RD? Something is always getting in your way !

Healing is still crazy across the boards - its just the fact that you can burst better now. People who know how to build their char can still deal pretty well with it.

Hey man, I just watch your stream and do enjoy it sometimes. You just used to *** about healing a lot. WTH do you think a build made for healing is supposed to do ? I have to admit, I would enjoy healing through your STORC in PvP, just to know you are raging.

Its really not a simple issue of nerf <X>. Its a bunch of stuff. I bitched about healing more when the best ult I had was a meteor that hit for 4-5k on a permablocking templar that didnt run out of mana. The thing thats majorly changed is my ult isnt complete garbage and penetration is more in line to allow bursting.

Healing is still crazy, stam or mag. So is damage. Not going into it on this thread.

Fair enough @FENGRUSH . My two favorite classes to play have always been MAG Templar and MAG Sorc. I am sick to death of @Wrobel nerfing them constantly. It just gets old, tiring, and makes the game less fun when you are constantly concerned about what @Wrobel will do next. Right now I think the MAG Templar is in a pretty good place but @Wrobel is always lurking. Just when you think a class is fun to play @Wrobel comes in a makes it less fun. Surge, streak, bubbles, etc...

Anyway, I hope @Wrobel is done messing with our house.

Idinuse · September 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

I probably shouldn't respond to such a post, but gotta jump in. We do use data and compare that to player feedback and our own experiences on live. Players always assume that what they see is what everyone is doing... that is a very dangerous assumption. Let's take a more detailed look at question #7... (even though its trolly)

"What hard data did you use when buffing heavy armor? If your data is reliable and / or your ability to interpret this data is satisfactory, why are HA sets like Black Rose so popular among damage dealers?"

Note: I'm only using NA PC data for a quick example... I don't have the time to wait for the report to parse all 180+ GB of data for all platforms.

Current armor bias of ALL players on NA PC:

Current armor bias of ONLY PVP players on NA PC

.. and now just for fun, here's the bias of all PVP players on NA PC with 501+ CP.

So in general, heavy isn't as popular as everyone thinks in PVP, especially at the higher end CP. The changes to heavy armor have swung things much closer to what I would call overall parity than ever before. There is still room for improvement however, especially when we start digging into things like class armor bias breakdowns. (i.e. - DK generally prefer heavy over all other armor types...etc)

Thank you for this Rich. On a similar but different note, is there any reason, (or someone in house that could explain), why Templars are shown with Heavy Armor and a 2H Axe in the creation screen preview with armor and Veteran gear on? Were Templars supposed to be a balanced class with bias to HA and 2H (ergo "Balanced Warrior WD only passive") or is it just a random set and weapon choice still in game since beta or alpha? =D

Jade1986 · September 2016

Armor is probably the easiest thing to balance. I would like to see skill / build charts, and armor sets instead.

jcasini222ub17_ESO · September 2016

Awesome post @ZOS_RichLambert . While you took the time to do that would you be so kind to shed any insight on resolutions to the health desync problems in Cyro?

Also if your data is having problems for more than four hours you should call the empiricist.

Nifty2g · September 2016

LegacyDM wrote: »

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

I probably shouldn't respond to such a post, but gotta jump in. We do use data and compare that to player feedback and our own experiences on live. Players always assume that what they see is what everyone is doing... that is a very dangerous assumption. Let's take a more detailed look at question #7... (even though its trolly)

"What hard data did you use when buffing heavy armor? If your data is reliable and / or your ability to interpret this data is satisfactory, why are HA sets like Black Rose so popular among damage dealers?"

Note: I'm only using NA PC data for a quick example... I don't have the time to wait for the report to parse all 180+ GB of data for all platforms.

Current armor bias of ALL players on NA PC:

Current armor bias of ONLY PVP players on NA PC

.. and now just for fun, here's the bias of all PVP players on NA PC with 501+ CP.

So in general, heavy isn't as popular as everyone thinks in PVP, especially at the higher end CP. The changes to heavy armor have swung things much closer to what I would call overall parity than ever before. There is still room for improvement however, especially when we start digging into things like class armor bias breakdowns. (i.e. - DK generally prefer heavy over all other armor types...etc)

Thanks for posting this. I do have some feedback.

1. Saying things like "I probably shouldn't respond to such a post." Is not a healthy start to facilitating communication. The op is visibly frustrated. Your response creates more of a divide between the players and devs and supports the lack of transparency. Let's be mature about this. Not belittle your frustrated player base.

2. You probably shouldn't be using your own experiences to implement balance. If you enjoy the game and have a favorite character your going to be biased. That's dangerous for a dev to have that kind of power. Zos should have unbiased QA play testers. Play testers would provide honest unbiased feedback.

3. This is the kind of transparency this community has been craving for. Why have you guys withheld this type is data for years? Recommend you provide weekly or bi-weekly "hard data" feedback. That would really help stop assumptions from the community and help you guys be more transparent.

They are human too, you know that?

DHale · September 2016

jcasini222ub17_ESO wrote: »

Awesome post @ZOS_RichLambert . While you took the time to do that would you be so kind to shed any insight on resolutions to the health desync problems in Cyro?

Also if your data is having problems for more than four hours you should call the empiricist.

Most health de syncs are caused by add ons for the pc users turn them off unless absolutely critical. So that is not going to get fixed.

jcasini222ub17_ESO · September 2016

@DHale I never played with add-ons. Just from a healer perspective they were very prevalent when some lag occurred. A lot of the times it occurred when shielding and healing were taking place.

Just trying to see if it's different now then 6 months ago. Also note in the groups I was in people would experience desyncs whether they were using add-ons or not, good piece of info though.

GrumpyDuckling · September 2016

anitajoneb17_ESO wrote: »

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

It has to be. I play on 2 platforms, and have seen way more stamina users than magicka users. Way more. And even then with magicka users, I see way more people wearing AND suggesting heavy armor usage than light armor usage. Not to mention the numerous amount of discussions both in-game and here on the forums that support the claim(s) of stamina builds outperforming magicka builds (and being used more). So my question is, when was this data pulled? Where are the time stamps?

When supplying statistics of groups, it's very important to supply date stamps. That way the reviewer can see when the data was collected/compiled, and judge for themselves whether or not the said data in question holds relevance. The graph provided lacks so much detail, it's somewhat humorous.

I can be silly and say, "Bruh." frequently — but dude... Math is my waifu. It's what I excel at, which is why I went with programming as a child. I'm a grown man now, and still adore it and do it for a living. So when I see things involving math of some sort, I go bananas. Especially statistics.

Errr... Bruh....
You're aware Rich was just sharing some insight with us ? Not submitting a study to the "Science" board for review ? Because, I'm sure, if he had provided the date stamps, you'd have found something else to nitpick and cirticize and justify that your personal experience in the game is more reliable than quantitative data ... ? Wouldn't you ?

Your response scares me and I'm shocked so many people agree with you.

You're advocating for less information and want other people to do the same. You can go ahead and take everything you see as "reliable... quantitative data" but the fact remains that without more information, that data is useless.

We don't know when that data was pulled. You should be questioning that before you decide to believe it.

Lord_Eomer · September 2016

Well, i show some respect to developers and agreed with their approach.

There is no doubt they are planning best for ESO success.

Tan9oSuccka · September 2016

The Dev takes the time to reply to a wall of text post and people are questioning the data provided?

"Time stamp!!"

Really? Get a grip.

vyndral13preub18_ESO · September 2016

Lord_Dexter wrote: »

Well, i show some respect to developers and agreed with their approach.

There is no doubt they are planning best for ESO success.

I just hope they are planning some new content after one tameriel. Because by the time the dlc after one tam is done it will have been 6ish months with no real content. If housing hits then and that is all add another 3 months and you are looking at 9ish months with no new content.

If we go that long with no new content i hope they pull in a whole lot of new players because they are going to loose a bunch to boredom.

But who knows maybe they will slip something in there between.

Spearblade · September 2016

vyndral13preub18_ESO wrote: »

Lord_Dexter wrote: »

Well, i show some respect to developers and agreed with their approach.

There is no doubt they are planning best for ESO success.

I just hope they are planning some new content after one tameriel. Because by the time the dlc after one tam is done it will have been 6ish months with no real content. If housing hits then and that is all add another 3 months and you are looking at 9ish months with no new content.

If we go that long with no new content i hope they pull in a whole lot of new players because they are going to loose a bunch to boredom.

But who knows maybe they will slip something in there between.

Many games have new content/expansion once annually. People may leave for a lil, but they generally come back.

ESO is far more steady with new/game-changing content.

EsoRecon · September 2016

wow. bravo. 10/10. perfect.

IxskullzxI · September 2016

Lord_Dexter wrote: »

Well, i show some respect to developers and agreed with their approach.

There is no doubt they are planning best for ESO success.

No they aren't. They are planning for more money. That's why they prioritize dlc and put balancing on the back burner for a year at a time.

Armitas · September 2016

Many of us PvPers are quite pleased with wheelers involvement in pvp and communication however we feel his role is far too limited. At the same time a lot of us feel betrayed by the combat team at every pass. Is there any way we can buff Wheeler to play a more active role in class development? And pay him for it of course. I get this feeling that he is far too under utilized.

I think at the very least any set ideas or class ability changes should have to pass by his desk for comment.

GrumpyDuckling · September 2016

Tan9oSuccka wrote: »

The Dev takes the time to reply to a wall of text post and people are questioning the data provided?

"Time stamp!!"

Really? Get a grip.

In a game that receives so many updates and changes time stamps are essential for accurate information. Not sure why you would want to take the data in the dev's post as 100% fact without having all the necessary information.

Your argument of "Get a grip" doesn't make sense. Give players a reason why they should believe everything a dev says? Just because he works for ZOS doesn't make him impervious to errors or always right.

Your're advocating for less information that would only strengthen the dev's claim about heavy armor if truthfully provided - how does that make any sense?

PurifedBladez · September 2016

A lot of the people I fight are wearing heavy armor these days.. hell if I was a meta player I would of already made the switch to heavy. My exact build can be pretty much transfer over to heavy and be better lol and to incorporate some of the HA dps sets my build would only be stronger. @ZOS_RichLambert

When I PVP I don't run into the amount of light armor wearers you are saying. Probably more like 40% HA 40% MA 20% LA.

cjthibs · September 2016

PurifedBladez wrote: »

When I PVP I don't run into the amount of light armor wearers you are saying. Probably more like 40% HA 40% MA 20% LA.

Anecdotes =/= Evidence.

xellink · September 2016

PurifedBladez wrote: »

When I PVP I don't run into the amount of light armor wearers you are saying. Probably more like 40% HA 40% MA 20% LA.

thats because they are in stealth and hittng from range.

PurifedBladez · September 2016

cjthibs wrote: »

PurifedBladez wrote: »

When I PVP I don't run into the amount of light armor wearers you are saying. Probably more like 40% HA 40% MA 20% LA.

Anecdotes =/= Evidence.

Just a discussion.

Notice Rich says some of the data they collect is from them playing live. Guaranteed topics of change have been brought up like this lol.. not that it's a good thing.

xellink wrote: »

PurifedBladez wrote: »

When I PVP I don't run into the amount of light armor wearers you are saying. Probably more like 40% HA 40% MA 20% LA.

thats because they are in stealth and hittng from range.

No its not lol.

cjthibs · September 2016

PurifedBladez wrote: »

cjthibs wrote: »

PurifedBladez wrote: »

When I PVP I don't run into the amount of light armor wearers you are saying. Probably more like 40% HA 40% MA 20% LA.

Anecdotes =/= Evidence.

Just a discussion.

Notice Rich says some of the data they collect is from them playing live. Guaranteed topics of change have been brought up like this lol.. not that it's a good thing.

Fair enough. I assume that's why he threw in this:

Players always assume that what they see is what everyone is doing... that is a very dangerous assumption.

He's admitting that we're all biased, but that it's important to not make decisions that way.

I conduct a lot of this type of monitoring as well, in the realm of network security rather than video games, but all too often I'm surprised by what people are actually doing rather than what it appears they are doing.

I certainly applaud @ZOS_RichLambert for releasing some of this, and personally would like to see more, I don't think it's a good discussion, certainly not a productive discussion, to have with players. The vocal minority will not understand what they are seeing, dismiss it based on their own personal biases, or just refuse to acknowledge it because 'they know better.' These people are self-proclaimed 'experts' and 'theory-crafters' after all, what would those bumbling devs know about it.

I can only imagine the glorious dashboards of statistics these guys are looking at day-in-day-out, and it makes the analytical nerd in me jealous. When it seems like they are making odd decisions, it's more than likely that they have the right idea, especially then, because they are seeing data that even the best theory-crafter out there couldn't even dream of having access to.

There are changes that I personally don't agree with, of course, and I do give feedback when I think it's necessary, but I know enough to know that no amount of feedback from one guy is going to trump the analysis these guys have in front of them. Nor should it.

Tan9oSuccka · September 2016

GrumpyDuckling wrote: »

Tan9oSuccka wrote: »

The Dev takes the time to reply to a wall of text post and people are questioning the data provided?

"Time stamp!!"

Really? Get a grip.

In a game that receives so many updates and changes time stamps are essential for accurate information. Not sure why you would want to take the data in the dev's post as 100% fact without having all the necessary information.

Your argument of "Get a grip" doesn't make sense. Give players a reason why they should believe everything a dev says? Just because he works for ZOS doesn't make him impervious to errors or always right.

Your're advocating for less information that would only strengthen the dev's claim about heavy armor if truthfully provided - how does that make any sense?

Come now. Why would he go out of his way to post data from 2014?

He provided data, and people lost their mind because it didn't correspond with their conceived observations.

That is quite insulting to them, and probably why they stay out of threads like this.

NoRagret · September 2016

That's an awful lot of assumptions over a 27 word ambiguous response.