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[THANKS ZOS] Rarest item in next DLC - 7,5 MONTHS to get ONE

  • Draxys
    Draxys
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    BEZDNA wrote: »
    NerfPlease wrote: »
    @BEZDNA in my tests single purple jewerly i got from 3624 mails
    its 36.240.000 ap
    so or you kinda lucky, or you lied, or they changed chances in todays patch

    or you need to open more mails, not only 1533, to clear the results

    Vicious Deaf

    lawl
    2013

    rip decibel
  • Draxys
    Draxys
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    Holy-Dope wrote: »
    Sharee wrote: »
    I don't really care all that much. If it drops, great, if it doesn't, i'll just keep using my old set. At least cyro won't be flooded with everyone using the new sets from day one.

    Expect to see HIGH on Alchemist DOPE set NB Gankers from the day1. yeah,you guessed it right...it's coming....and it's bad....

    Once magicka NBs get vicious + alchemist, hope everyone has magelight slotted bc it's gonna get messy
    Edited by Draxys on March 1, 2016 9:51AM
    2013

    rip decibel
  • Holy-Dope
    Holy-Dope
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    BEZDNA wrote: »
    Holy-Dope wrote: »
    Well, the screenshot of Gold jewelry was uploaded by me not OP in another post. And second if you'd see other jewelries are as well gold. This came from the weekly rewards or pvp rewards, something i can;t remember as it was not me who received it but another guildy of mine...so keep an eye out, those ring monsters do exist....

    I know, i made that screenshot and it's my inventory out there on picture. Since I'm not a member of Sigma Draconis and don't think i ever saw you in game, i have to ask you - how did you got that screenshot? I just want to understand how something that i posted in What's Up chat for internal use of my guildies, made his way up to official forum, and who is that person who made it happen.

    Well... who did u share ur screenshot with on WA shared it with Sigma WA and you can fill the rest of gaps....
    DC- Holy DOPE, Altmer Nightblade
    (And many those who did not make it to the end R.I.P.)

  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    BEZDNA wrote: »
    Holy-Dope wrote: »
    Well, the screenshot of Gold jewelry was uploaded by me not OP in another post. And second if you'd see other jewelries are as well gold. This came from the weekly rewards or pvp rewards, something i can;t remember as it was not me who received it but another guildy of mine...so keep an eye out, those ring monsters do exist....

    I know, i made that screenshot and it's my inventory out there on picture. Since I'm not a member of Sigma Draconis and don't think i ever saw you in game, i have to ask you - how did you got that screenshot? I just want to understand how something that i posted in What's Up chat for internal use of my guildies, made his way up to official forum, and who is that person who made it happen.

    @BEZDNA who cares?

    and what if you figure out who posted your screenshot - what you will do with that person - kill him?
  • BEZDNA
    BEZDNA
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    BEZDNA wrote: »
    Holy-Dope wrote: »
    Well, the screenshot of Gold jewelry was uploaded by me not OP in another post. And second if you'd see other jewelries are as well gold. This came from the weekly rewards or pvp rewards, something i can;t remember as it was not me who received it but another guildy of mine...so keep an eye out, those ring monsters do exist....

    I know, i made that screenshot and it's my inventory out there on picture. Since I'm not a member of Sigma Draconis and don't think i ever saw you in game, i have to ask you - how did you got that screenshot? I just want to understand how something that i posted in What's Up chat for internal use of my guildies, made his way up to official forum, and who is that person who made it happen.

    @BEZDNA who cares?

    and what if you figure out who posted your screenshot - what you will do with that person - kill him?

    I do and plenty other ppl who don't want their private talks to become public. That screenshot is not harmful, but the fact that information from private chat made it's way up to official forum, is vary frightening, i hope you can understand such simple thing. Nothing criminal, but we'll find a way to deal wit that person.
  • Lorkhan
    Lorkhan
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    BEZDNA wrote: »
    NerfPlease wrote: »
    BEZDNA wrote: »
    Holy-Dope wrote: »
    Well, the screenshot of Gold jewelry was uploaded by me not OP in another post. And second if you'd see other jewelries are as well gold. This came from the weekly rewards or pvp rewards, something i can;t remember as it was not me who received it but another guildy of mine...so keep an eye out, those ring monsters do exist....

    I know, i made that screenshot and it's my inventory out there on picture. Since I'm not a member of Sigma Draconis and don't think i ever saw you in game, i have to ask you - how did you got that screenshot? I just want to understand how something that i posted in What's Up chat for internal use of my guildies, made his way up to official forum, and who is that person who made it happen.

    @BEZDNA who cares?

    and what if you figure out who posted your screenshot - what you will do with that person - kill him?

    I do and plenty other ppl who don't want their private talks to become public. That screenshot is not harmful, but the fact that information from private chat made it's way up to official forum, is vary frightening, i hope you can understand such simple thing. Nothing criminal, but we'll find a way to deal wit that person.

    lol.
    welcome, this is internet
  • Messy1
    Messy1
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    OMG they just created a huge lag problem again . . . I can see it now . . 20 EP all geared with vicious death sets steamrolling into a group of noobs making everyone explode around them and dropping 20 meteors at once . . . our screens will look like this

    explosion.jpg
  • Sharee
    Sharee
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    Messy1 wrote: »
    OMG they just created a huge lag problem again . . . I can see it now . . 20 EP all geared with vicious death sets steamrolling into a group of noobs making everyone explode around them and dropping 20 meteors at once . . . our screens will look like this

    explosion.jpg

    If a group geared like you said does what you said, then the fight will be over in 3 seconds. I don't think this will create any huge lag problems. Shorter fights = less strain on the server.
  • Messy1
    Messy1
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    Sharee wrote: »
    Messy1 wrote: »
    OMG they just created a huge lag problem again . . . I can see it now . . 20 EP all geared with vicious death sets steamrolling into a group of noobs making everyone explode around them and dropping 20 meteors at once . . . our screens will look like this

    explosion.jpg

    If a group geared like you said does what you said, then the fight will be over in 3 seconds. I don't think this will create any huge lag problems. Shorter fights = less strain on the server.

    . . . But . . . exploding people!!
  • Duiwel
    Duiwel
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    ITT OP thinks his RNG luck is relevant to everyone and it's set in stone.

    News flash OP, Sypher was doing a random video about sets while he was just showcasing the vendors in PvP vicious death jewellery was on sale ( purp ).

    Your argument is really invalid because RNG!

    You want proper stats let 10 people do this and get an average, one person is not good enough for stats.

    1 person can do damage or healing stats, stuff like that but not drops come on!
    @Duiwel:
    Join ORDER OF SITHIS We're recruiting! PC EU

    "Dear Brother. I do not spread rumours. I create them..."
  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    Duiwel wrote: »
    ITT OP thinks his RNG luck is relevant to everyone and it's set in stone.

    News flash OP, Sypher was doing a random video about sets while he was just showcasing the vendors in PvP vicious death jewellery was on sale ( purp ).

    Your argument is really invalid because RNG!

    You want proper stats let 10 people do this and get an average, one person is not good enough for stats.

    1 person can do damage or healing stats, stuff like that but not drops come on!

    10500 attempts is more relevant and less RNGish than few attempts from stream
    you point is invalid

    but yes more attempts - cleaner result
    ive done with testings because i know the average chances now, it takes awhile to pickup so huge amount of mails even with the addon and two acocunts at the same time, as i did
  • joshisanonymous
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    Your tests aren't completely meaningless, but they definitely don't show the actual probability that an item will drop.

    Basically, you calculated how often these items dropped for you in this one instance, but that's all you did. If an item dropped for you 3% of the time, it could still have a drop rate of 8% for example, if it's set up as a simple probabillity. Probabilities refer to how likely something will happen in every single instance. So, whenever you open a piece of mail, there's an 8% chance (in my hypothetical scenario) that what you're going for will drop, but that doesn't mean the next time you open a piece of mail you're any more likely to get the item. There's still an 8% chance every single time, meaning you could open 5,000 pieces of mail and not get what you want because you simply got unlikely every time. The likelihood that you will eventually get something does go up as you open more and more in a sense, but that's a different probability from the likelihood that something will drop in general, and if I remember correctly from statistics class, it's something that starts to factor in more so as the number of attempts approaches infinity, not 50, 100, or 1000.

    All that is to say, the sitaution may be nowhere near as dire as you're suggesting. It's really hard to know.
    Fedrals Hlanu
    Dunmer Nightblade of the Ebonheart Pact

  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    ok i get it, i think my mistak is in this

    all sets has the same chances, but i calculated only one set
    i think i need to sum all 6 % or purple rings and divide them to get average value

    omw
  • joshisanonymous
    joshisanonymous
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    ok i get it, i think my mistak is in this

    all sets has the same chances, but i calculated only one set
    i think i need to sum all 6 % or purple rings and divide them to get average value

    omw

    No that's not really the problem.
    Fedrals Hlanu
    Dunmer Nightblade of the Ebonheart Pact

  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    but the result will be more closer to the TRUTH
  • joshisanonymous
    joshisanonymous
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    ok i get it, i think my mistak is in this

    all sets has the same chances, but i calculated only one set
    i think i need to sum all 6 % or purple rings and divide them to get average value

    omw

    Maybe I should put it this way:

    Imagine an 80 year old man has been playing the lottery every day since he was 20 and has never won. Does that mean that tomorrow he'll win the lottery? No, because the chance that he will win remains the same every single time. He'll probably convince himself that he's gonna win tomorrow, that's probably why he's been playing every day for 60 years, but he is no more likely to win than when he was 20.
    Fedrals Hlanu
    Dunmer Nightblade of the Ebonheart Pact

  • WitchyWarrior
    WitchyWarrior
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    ok i get it, i think my mistak is in this

    all sets has the same chances, but i calculated only one set
    i think i need to sum all 6 % or purple rings and divide them to get average value

    omw

    Maybe I should put it this way:

    Imagine an 80 year old man has been playing the lottery every day since he was 20 and has never won. Does that mean that tomorrow he'll win the lottery? No, because the chance that he will win remains the same every single time. He'll probably convince himself that he's gonna win tomorrow, that's probably why he's been playing every day for 60 years, but he is no more likely to win than when he was 20.

    That analogy made me sad :(
  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    0.029% - alot better now!

    not a year, but only 224 days
  • joshisanonymous
    joshisanonymous
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    ok i get it, i think my mistak is in this

    all sets has the same chances, but i calculated only one set
    i think i need to sum all 6 % or purple rings and divide them to get average value

    omw

    Maybe I should put it this way:

    Imagine an 80 year old man has been playing the lottery every day since he was 20 and has never won. Does that mean that tomorrow he'll win the lottery? No, because the chance that he will win remains the same every single time. He'll probably convince himself that he's gonna win tomorrow, that's probably why he's been playing every day for 60 years, but he is no more likely to win than when he was 20.

    That analogy made me sad :(

    Don't play the lottery then. ;) (It's mostly a tool the state uses to rob poor people of their money.)
    Fedrals Hlanu
    Dunmer Nightblade of the Ebonheart Pact

  • willymchilybily
    willymchilybily
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    @joshisanonymous

    if probability follows a bell distribution there will be outliers sure. but the more tests op does. even if he began as an outlier the more likely it is he will approach the actual drop chance.

    As you say yourself every times he opens the chance is the same so whether he opens 700 mails or 7 people open 100 mails the accuracy of the results will be the same.

    whether your 80 year old played the lottery everyday for 60 years or 60 twenty year olds played the lotto every day for one year. the odds of winning in that time would be the same. Though statistics would also claim he would be better buying 2 sets of numbers/tickets every other day for the same investment per annum.

    Boy do I hate statistics its all nonsense
    PSN - WarpPigeon - Guild: TheSyndicate - EU, Ebonheart Pact
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  • hrothbern
    hrothbern
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    ok i get it, i think my mistak is in this

    all sets has the same chances, but i calculated only one set
    i think i need to sum all 6 % or purple rings and divide them to get average value

    omw

    Maybe I should put it this way:

    Imagine an 80 year old man has been playing the lottery every day since he was 20 and has never won. Does that mean that tomorrow he'll win the lottery? No, because the chance that he will win remains the same every single time. He'll probably convince himself that he's gonna win tomorrow, that's probably why he's been playing every day for 60 years, but he is no more likely to win than when he was 20.

    That analogy made me sad :(

    Don't play the lottery then. ;) (It's mostly a tool the state uses to rob poor people of their money.)

    Selling hope and dreams to the masses is and always has been a successful business concept ;)

    The English queen Elisabeth the first used it instead of impopular taxes to build her first big war fleet.
    At the same time the Dutch VOC, the first limited liability company in the world, used it to raise funds for her merchant fleet
    Karl Marx described religion as opium for the people
    Politicians have a lot of staff doing the groundwork to sell the best dreams

    and into todays secularised world the state controls it directly or through taxes




    Edited by hrothbern on March 1, 2016 3:18PM
    "I still do not understand why I followed the advice of Captain Rana to bring the villagers of Bleakrock into safety. We should have fought for our village and not have backed down, with our tail between our legs.
    Now my home village is in shambles, the houses burning, the invaders feasting.
    I swear every day to Shor that after Molag Bal has been defeated, I will hunt down the invaders and restore peace in Bleakrock and drink my mead with my friends at the market place".
  • joshisanonymous
    joshisanonymous
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    @joshisanonymous

    if probability follows a bell distribution there will be outliers sure. but the more tests op does. even if he began as an outlier the more likely it is he will approach the actual drop chance.

    As you say yourself every times he opens the chance is the same so whether he opens 700 mails or 7 people open 100 mails the accuracy of the results will be the same.

    whether your 80 year old played the lottery everyday for 60 years or 60 twenty year olds played the lotto every day for one year. the odds of winning in that time would be the same. Though statistics would also claim he would be better buying 2 sets of numbers/tickets every other day for the same investment per annum.

    Boy do I hate statistics its all nonsense

    Yes, that's why I said it's not completely meaningless, but I believe it would take many many more trials than a few thousand to determine that. It's been a while since I've taken a statistics course, though, so I could be wrong.
    Fedrals Hlanu
    Dunmer Nightblade of the Ebonheart Pact

  • RatedChaotic
    RatedChaotic
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    One thing that really hate in this game is the campaign rewards. I pvped every day for hours a day just to look and see that people had millions of AP earned. Like I will ever get any of those rewards with pvp so laggy and peeps with their AP exploits.

    Edited by RatedChaotic on March 1, 2016 5:15PM
  • Refuse2GrowUp
    Refuse2GrowUp
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    The RNG in this game is beyond atrocious. While I agree that certain sets/jewelry shouldn't be too easy to obtain, helm drops rates and set drop rates are beyond abysmal. Let's hope that these are just PTS codes and they will increase the drop rates some for live
    PS4 NA Server

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  • Daraugh
    Daraugh
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    I opened about 60 mails before getting bored of opening mails. All of the Vicious Death items that are in this screenshot came out of those ~60 rewards for the worthy. There were drops from all of the pvp sets of course, but I just focused on this one to see if the rng was really that abysmal.

    6KtUwku.png
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    May all beings have happiness
    May they be free from suffering
    May they find the joy that has never known suffering
    May they be free from attachment and hatred
  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    Sharee wrote: »
    I don't really care all that much. If it drops, great, if it doesn't, i'll just keep using my old set. At least cyro won't be flooded with everyone using the new sets from day one.

    this set - VD - easy obtainable in blue quality in day one from mails
    just without jewerly

    jewerly will be the pain, but you can gather full set as i told without em
  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    i reveal my method:

    i used BETA version of JunkIt addon, with new feature to destroy any items you want, if you setup it right
    so all items except jewerly will be autodestroyed on pickup

    also i used PostMaster Altered to pick up all mails with one button

    the mails arriver by 108 at once
    and 511 in total for a hero from template on PTS
    so i need change location 4 times and pickup all mails with addon
    Edited by NerfPlease on March 1, 2016 8:26PM
  • NerfPlease
    NerfPlease
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    NerfPlease wrote: »
    MY TESTS


    10659 mails was opened
    307 jewerly was looted - its 2.88% chance
    37 purple jewerly was looted - its 0.34% chance
    156 rings was looted - its 1.46% chance
    137 blue rings was looted - its 1.28% chance
    19 purple rings was looted - its 0.17% chance
    2 purple Vicious Death rings was looted - its 0.018% chance
    4 purple Marksman rings was looted - its 0.037% chance
    4 purple Fury rings was looted - its 0.037% chance
    4 purple Leki's rings was looted - its 0.037% chance
    5 purple Fasalla's Guile rings was looted - its 0.046% chance
    0 purple Transmutation rings was looted - its unknown chance
    my speculation is - all sets has the same chances, lets calculate the average
    19/6=3.16 purple rings of any set - its 0.029% chance

    How do these rates have anything to do with upcoming changes to live server? Everything will be much, much more rare. They gave us these mails with 100% set item drops so we could test the gear. On live server you will probably be lucky if you get even one blue set item out of hundreds of rewards for the worthy, and it will likely be something useless like Marksman ice staff.

    you right, i mentinoed it in the last part of the post
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