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What happened?

  • Decimus_Rex
    Decimus_Rex
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    ESO achieved that 750,000 by losing far more than that in the first 3 months.

    Further, top as in "good" is an opinion. Top as in "most subscribers" is not.


    Let's see, my Algebra is real rusty

    Your math suggests that we are in the negative integers

    I guess that means I'm not really playing the game

    http://youtu.be/gUyqfUut8lA
  • stevenbennett_ESO
    stevenbennett_ESO
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    I'll also add that the second article is based on Raptr's numbers - which is PC only. Even if you accept Raptr as a valid source of overall PC gaming statistics, they are necessarily skewed against cross platform games like ESO.
  • muhgo
    muhgo
    according to Techage.

    oh, so you mean techage... erm techgage?

    THE TECHGAGE?

    well, never heard of them.
  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    Um… Again, read the articles. That second article is referring to ALL PC games, not just MMOs. Take out the non-MMOs on this list, and ESO is doing pretty well.

    If by falling 15 slots in gameplay in 3 months is "doing pretty well" in your opinion, I am not investing in any companies you work for... or any you invest in.

    Further, the odds of it being in the top 20 for July are pretty much zero, which means it will have followed SWTOR in sliding out of the top 20 by 1 month, despite the fact it has only been out 4 months and SWTOR had been out 42 months before it fell.

  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    ESO achieved that 750,000 by losing far more than that in the first 3 months.

    Further, top as in "good" is an opinion. Top as in "most subscribers" is not.


    Let's see, my Algebra is real rusty

    Your math suggests that we are in the negative integers

    I guess that means I'm not really playing the game

    http://youtu.be/gUyqfUut8lA

    It is possible to currently have 750,000 subscribers and have lost more than 750,000 subscribers, just like it is possible to currently have 1 dollar and have lost 10.

    [Moderator Note: Edited per our rules on Rude and Insulting comments]
    Edited by ZOS_JoanaL on August 7, 2014 12:05AM
  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    I'll also add that the second article is based on Raptr's numbers - which is PC only. Even if you accept Raptr as a valid source of overall PC gaming statistics, they are necessarily skewed against cross platform games like ESO.

    If you have better numbers, by all means we await you posting them.
  • Holycannoli
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    It's based on Raptr. I have and use Raptr.
    In April’s look, we saw Bethesda’s The Elder Scrolls Online enter the charts at number 5, and I quipped, “We’ll see how long it’ll last there.” Well, as it happens, it didn’t last too long at the top. It placed 8 in May, and then dropped to 20 in June.

    I'm also one of the ones who stopped playing in May. I guess a lot of us Raptr users wanted an extended break from the game.
  • Xnemesis
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    Innocente wrote: »
    ESO is actually not a very good MMO.

    * Underdeveloped Features
    * No global AH/Market
    * Phase group lockouts
    * Focus on Single-Player gameplay
    * Poor Crafting systems
    * Major quest defects still in game after 4 months
    * No ability to even setup channels in Chat
    * World is heavily instanced with players funneled into random populations
    * Bugs abound in old and new content

    I have not played Single-Player games since about 2001, and don't play Multi-Player games. Just play MMOs. And really, ESO is not an MMO at all.

    ESO is a Single-Player game with Multi-Player optional content based on a single shard 'Mega-Server' tech that places players into an invisible lobby, then funnels them into an available instance area with a random set of players.

    Just my own opinion, based on my own experience.

    Ok so ill humor you a bit only because I am curious

    * You are very vague, what features are you speaking of?
    * This was by design. I have no problem selling anything and I am sure that the new guild kiosks will help in regards to players who want a more traditional AH.
    * Phase group lockouts. I concur, however they are taking steps to fix this.
    * Errr this one has me confused. You have public dungeons, World bosses, Dolmens, 4 man dungeons, trials, and an adventure zone specifically for group questing. I really don't know what more you want, so please elaborate.
    * Again very vague. The crafting system is pretty deep and time consuming. Just because you think it is a poor system doesn't make it fact. I still would like you to give a real opinion on it though.
    * I have done all three factions quests and haven't had progress blocked but maybe once, and that one time was in coldharbor a month or so after release. If you want to just spam click through quest dialogue, and rush the game sure things might break. For most players, the game and story are enjoyable and quest bugs are far and few between.
    * Minor detail such as nameplates and chat bubbles they may come in the future as an option.
    * Ummm....that's how a megaserver works lol
    * Again vague what bugs do you speak of.

    ESO is a great casual MMO. It is not hardcore with progressive raiding like rift or wow. It is a different flavor of game. It was widely advertised as an AvAvA PvP game. If you came strictly for the PvE side you might feel underwhelmed, but if you came for the PvP then you are getting every pennies worth. The game is not bad, it is not dying, and it is not going F2P/B2P any time soon. You may or may not like the game, but to call it bad and then make vague statements to justify it is wrong.
  • Korozenn
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    Xnemesis wrote: »
    ESO is a great casual MMO. It is not hardcore with progressive raiding like rift or wow. It is a different flavor of game. It was widely advertised as an AvAvA PvP game. If you came strictly for the PvE side you might feel underwhelmed, but if you came for the PvP then you are getting every pennies worth. The game is not bad, it is not dying, and it is not going F2P/B2P any time soon. You may or may not like the game, but to call it bad and then make vague statements to justify it is wrong.

    Yeah, that part I bolded of your post is a strong "might".

    I'm almost solely focused on PvE at the moment and will go into PvP as soon as I reach my Veteran Ranks on my current character, but the game hasn't left me feeling underwhelmed at all.

    Other than issues I take with phasing and several other bugs that continue to exist with Achievements that will be fixed given some time, the rest of the game is exemplary to me compared to what it started out as back at launch, and especially in comparison to what it was in beta. But it's definitely a mindset that changes from player-to-player that you ask based on their own experiences, in that regard. :smile:

    That's sort of the glory part you take out of video games in comparison to other electronic media. Some aspects of games should appeal to everyone, others may only appeal to niche audiences of people. It's interesting to always see how people take towards different aspects of the game and how MMO games in particular pan out because of that throughout their lifespan. I find that ZeniMax is listening to player feedback very well given their Quakecon 2014 on-stage presentation, so we'll see how things continue to pan out for ESO as the year goes on and implementations like the Justice System are put into place.
    Edited by Korozenn on August 6, 2014 5:29PM
  • Slurg
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    This thread is sad. Anyone who actually read that article about the top 10 list would have seen this:

    "As Polygon notes, Bethesda’s The Elder Scrolls Online hasn’t been around long enough to appear on this list, having just released three months ago."

    Do people only read headlines anymore?

    As for the rest of the wild speculation about this game being an abysmal failure, how about we wait for some actual comparison data to come out before making these judgments?
    Happy All the Holidays To You and Yours!
    Remembering better days of less RNG in all the things.
  • vyndral13preub18_ESO
    vyndral13preub18_ESO
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    Korozenn wrote: »
    Haters gonna hate.

    Numbers speak, and if ESO's subscriber base has anything to say about it, I can guarantee you that games like EVE Online do not have a larger subscriber base at all. In 2013, EVE Online had 500,000 Subs after almost 10 years (it's highest number of Subs ever, mind you) of being out while ESO managed 750,000+ Subs in less than four months.

    As far as top MMOs are concerned, anyone who adds "Best" or "Top" anything is automatically generating an opinion. However, factual information still stands that the #1 most played MMO at this point in time is World of Warcraft and that Elder Scrolls Online isn't far from being #2 if it keeps accelerating at this rate.

    ESO achieved that 750,000 by losing far more than that in the first 3 months.


    Bethesda’s The Elder Scrolls Online hasn’t been around long enough to appear on this list, having just released three months ago. While the game kicked-off with three-quarters of a million subscribers, it doesn’t seem that all of them have stuck with the game, if Raptr’s charts are anything to go by.



    The first quote is yours saying it lost players to get to 750k players. The second is from the article you linked saying ESO started at 750k.

    If you are going to make up numbers and throw them around you should at least use the numbers in the article you linked.

    Edited by vyndral13preub18_ESO on August 6, 2014 5:33PM
  • Xnemesis
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    Korozenn wrote: »
    Xnemesis wrote: »
    ESO is a great casual MMO. It is not hardcore with progressive raiding like rift or wow. It is a different flavor of game. It was widely advertised as an AvAvA PvP game. If you came strictly for the PvE side you might feel underwhelmed, but if you came for the PvP then you are getting every pennies worth. The game is not bad, it is not dying, and it is not going F2P/B2P any time soon. You may or may not like the game, but to call it bad and then make vague statements to justify it is wrong.

    Yeah, that part I bolded of your post is a strong "might".

    I'm almost solely focused on PvE at the moment and will go into PvP as soon as I reach my Veteran Ranks on my current character, but the game hasn't left me feeling underwhelmed at all.

    I do agree it is a big MIGHT, because I am enjoying myself as well I have just started a few quest in craiglorn and am about 70% away from VR12. If I could change anything it would be the grinding. Its hard to find a group to do questing with when everyone wants to just grind to VR12. If people just stepped back and played the game the way it was designed I think the experience for everyone would be much more enjoyable.
  • Royalroacho
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    Wah stop making more of these posts! The more posts about how a game is failing there are, the more people believe it without personally investigating it, which in turn causes more of these posts to proliferate...it's like this all over again-
    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_Plague_of_1518

    Also, you can find different versions of these lists on the forums on any of those games on the top ten. Theyre under posts titled "why this game is failing" or something similar.
  • arena25
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    Ok, that's my cue to hide under the drapes for an hour.
    If you can't handle the heat...stay out of the kitchen!
  • Nocturnalis
    Nocturnalis
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    In April’s look, we saw Bethesda’s The Elder Scrolls Online enter the charts at number 5, and I quipped, “We’ll see how long it’ll last there.” Well, as it happens, it didn’t last too long at the top. It placed 8 in May, and then dropped to 20 in June. Unless there’s a bit of a resurgence of players, it looks like July’s report will see it drop off of the chart.

    ...

    The hit MMO WildStar has made its debut this month as well, taking over Minecraft‘s number 6 position.

    ...

    and also see if WildStar fares better than ESO (hopefully it will).

    The author of this article seems slightly biased...

    I would also ask what is the install base and demographics of Raptr? The company claims 17 million users. Is this 13 - 18 year olds? ...18-24 year olds?

    ESO seems to be aimed at an older demographic, and various threads in forums and reddit seem to indicate a population that is shifted towards 25 year olds and older. So it could be a case of the 18 - 25 y.o. crowd tried it out and it didn't appeal to them, as ESO is more of a casual experience than they are looking for. I think that would largely skew the results of their list as the rest of the games on the list seem to cater to a younger crowd.

    Also consider that June ended the free month of ESO, so many dropped off after deciding that a monthly fee/ the game wasn't worth it. This happens with the end of most trial periods. Also Wildstar only has a strong showing on the list due to June being their trial month. Based on forum posts since the end of WS's trial periods there are complaints of empty servers etc...

    I think though, that ZOS was initially slow on their response to bugs and exploits, this could of saved many subs for them. Also it seems like the programmers/ QA department where still in the process of learning the ESO game engine at this point. The game basically wasn't ready for launch and they should have postponed till Trials/ Dyes and Justice system were finished. It would have been a much more well rounded release. They will get their second chance at console launch (though I question if console players are really interested in an MMO).

    That's what I think happened. (I might be biased for ESO... balance the scales.)
  • Aenra
    Aenra
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    you need to practice employing your gray matter a touch more

    1) you start a list contrasting single and massively player games with one another, something is wrong with your site.

    2) that's 'a' site publishing 'a' list that is "said" to be the result from the data companies have sent them themselves. Emphasis on "said"

    3) said list denotes income, not sub revenue. I will not insult you further by assuming you are unable to understand the distinction between the two

    4) said list is presumably on a world wide scale. Some MMOs -do- have publishers in China, Russia and Japan (apart from the US and EU), some do not. Making said comparison even more unintelligent.

    but here you are, doing your thing anyway. About a week since they posted that dumb thing on top of that..

    Pride, honour and purity
  • jonboy56267ub17_ESO
    Here is a link to the original article (or what it claims to be the original article):

    superdataresearch.com/blog/us-digital-games-market/

    And if you scroll down here is a section of that article:
    WILDSTAR AND ELDER SCROLLS ONLINE CHALLENGE STATUS QUO

    When Bethesda Softworks released Elder Scrolls Online, the industry took notice as the publisher fearlessly announced a subscription model, rather than going free-to-play like its direct competitor Guild Wars 2 (NCsoft). So far, a subscriber base of 772,374 (June) indicates that its strategy is working. And perhaps its because of this that NCsoft released its own subscription-based title, Wildstar, over one month ago. As the initial purchase included a free first month, NCsoft is about to find out how strong the demand for sci-fi action really is. Traditionally, sci-fi styled MMOs tend to generate three times as much in monthly revenue compared to fantasy-based titles. And the early signs are good. According to Carbine, the game has so far seen “four to five times” as many concurrent users than during its open beta stage. Combined with NCsoft’s expertise, having four titles in the worldwide top 10 for subscription-based MMOs last year, Wildstar is a strong contender in the current market.”
  • Elsonso
    Elsonso
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    This is one of those websites that takes a very specific data set and attempts to generalize it to a larger community based on the premise that (1) they have enough of a sample size to represent a larger community and (2) that their community has the same cross-section as the larger community.

    Specifically, this is all about people who run the Raptr spyware and what games they play.

    It is very accurate in how it portrays Raptr users but not so much when it comes to everyone else.

    It might be worth noting that Elder Scrolls Online is down in the bottom 50 of the current Top 100 on Steam and is at 2000 players today. While it is below Rift (2500 players today) it is well above World of Warcraft and Wildstar, which apparently no one is playing anymore.
    XBox EU/NA:@ElsonsoJannus
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    PSN NA/EU: @ElsonsoJannus
    Total in-game hours: 11321
    X/Twitter: ElsonsoJannus
  • Armitas
    Armitas
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    ESO achieved that 750,000 by losing far more than that in the first 3 months.

    Further, top as in "good" is an opinion. Top as in "most subscribers" is not.


    Let's see, my Algebra is real rusty

    Your math suggests that we are in the negative integers

    I guess that means I'm not really playing the game

    http://youtu.be/gUyqfUut8lA

    NagARUwsQdmpnwiVHiw9_TrashMyComputer_zps8c9a7ace.gif
    Retired.
    Nord mDK
  • Slurg
    Slurg
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    Does the OP care to post any more irrelevant articles or misinterpreted data for us to review?

    Multiple people have stated the first article excludes ESO from the rankings because it's too new.

    Multiple people have stated the 2nd article measures a small subset of users of all PC games, not specific to MMOs.

    The OP keeps insisting this is relevant and it's just not. The relevant data do not appear to be available at this point.

    My conclusion is we're being trolled.
    Happy All the Holidays To You and Yours!
    Remembering better days of less RNG in all the things.
  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    Aenra wrote: »
    you need to practice employing your gray matter a touch more

    1) you start a list contrasting single and massively player games with one another, something is wrong with your site.

    2) that's 'a' site publishing 'a' list that is "said" to be the result from the data companies have sent them themselves. Emphasis on "said"

    3) said list denotes income, not sub revenue. I will not insult you further by assuming you are unable to understand the distinction between the two

    4) said list is presumably on a world wide scale. Some MMOs -do- have publishers in China, Russia and Japan (apart from the US and EU), some do not. Making said comparison even more unintelligent.

    but here you are, doing your thing anyway. About a week since they posted that dumb thing on top of that..

    You got better, go ahead and post it.
  • daneyulebub17_ESO
    daneyulebub17_ESO
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    So far, a subscriber base of 772,374 (June) indicates that its strategy is working. And perhaps its because of this that NCsoft released its own subscription-based title, Wildstar, over one month ago. As the initial purchase included a free first month, NCsoft is about to find out how strong the demand for sci-fi action really is. Traditionally, sci-fi styled MMOs tend to generate three times as much in monthly revenue compared to fantasy-based titles.

    A bit confusing--makes it sound like NCsoft turned on a dime and went with subscriptions somehow due to ESO doing well with that model--not the case at all.

    Also--wonder where they got the sci-fi MMOs "traditionally" generate 3 times as much as fantasy ones??? Even without WoW being considered, that just sounds... dubious.
    This message confirms that you have successfully cancelled your subscription to The Elder Scrolls Online. You will no longer be charged for a subscription on a recurring basis, and your access to the game will expire at the end of your current subscription cycle.

    We're sad to see you go now, but we'll be happy to welcome you back at any time! Whenever you're ready to come back, your characters will be waiting for you, just like you left them. You can return anytime by resubscribing on the Manage Subscription page on your Elder Scrolls Online account.

    Please print this email and keep it for your records.
  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    This is one of those websites that takes a very specific data set and attempts to generalize it to a larger community based on the premise that (1) they have enough of a sample size to represent a larger community and (2) that their community has the same cross-section as the larger community.

    Specifically, this is all about people who run the Raptr spyware and what games they play.

    It is very accurate in how it portrays Raptr users but not so much when it comes to everyone else.

    It might be worth noting that Elder Scrolls Online is down in the bottom 50 of the current Top 100 on Steam and is at 2000 players today. While it is below Rift (2500 players today) it is well above World of Warcraft and Wildstar, which apparently no one is playing anymore.

    I do hope that was an attempt at humor. Steam can only measures games played that were sold via Steam. As such, it isn't a very good indicator unless compared to its own numbers over time--i.e. if you were to look at 3,000 Steam users last month, and 2,000 this month, that would be an indicator one could extrapolate to overall trends.

    However, the problem with that would be a lot of people will be leaving at the end of the their one month after purchasing via Steam.
  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    Slurg wrote: »
    Does the OP care to post any more irrelevant articles or misinterpreted data for us to review?

    Multiple people have stated the first article excludes ESO from the rankings because it's too new.

    Multiple people have stated the 2nd article measures a small subset of users of all PC games, not specific to MMOs.

    The OP keeps insisting this is relevant and it's just not. The relevant data do not appear to be available at this point.

    My conclusion is we're being trolled.

    Your conclusion is based upon frustration with the fact that your Google search has yet to turn up any numbers that indicate anything other than ESO is already in a hard decline.

    No one can find positive numbers because there are no positive numbers for this game. Bethesda is keeping the actual subscription numbers a tight secret, but all external metrics show a downward spiral.

    Also, just to dispel the "naysayer" and "troll" arguments, overall I like the game. I am one of the few members of my guild (several hundred person permanent guild) who are still playing it. By the time early access was over, my guild had over 100 regular members who were playing.

    There are maybe 5 of us left. Out of over 100 that pre-ordered. That is a 95% attrition rate.

    But, for me, the game is like playing Skyrim with zone chat and the occasional assist from another player. The wife and I play together, and it is fun, if a little too easy.

    So, back to the subject at hand--anyone else have other ideas as to why this game started so strong, and plummeted so fast?
    Edited by d.crosgrove_ESO on August 6, 2014 7:36PM
  • vyndral13preub18_ESO
    vyndral13preub18_ESO
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    This is one of those websites that takes a very specific data set and attempts to generalize it to a larger community based on the premise that (1) they have enough of a sample size to represent a larger community and (2) that their community has the same cross-section as the larger community.

    Specifically, this is all about people who run the Raptr spyware and what games they play.

    It is very accurate in how it portrays Raptr users but not so much when it comes to everyone else.

    It might be worth noting that Elder Scrolls Online is down in the bottom 50 of the current Top 100 on Steam and is at 2000 players today. While it is below Rift (2500 players today) it is well above World of Warcraft and Wildstar, which apparently no one is playing anymore.

    I do hope that was an attempt at humor. Steam can only measures games played that were sold via Steam. As such, it isn't a very good indicator unless compared to its own numbers over time--i.e. if you were to look at 3,000 Steam users last month, and 2,000 this month, that would be an indicator one could extrapolate to overall trends.

    However, the problem with that would be a lot of people will be leaving at the end of the their one month after purchasing via Steam.

    I agree, your limited sample size of data, is much more compelling then his limited sample size of data...

    I was really impressed with the is this an attempt at humor. That made me laugh, and really sold it for me.
  • Elsonso
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    I do hope that was an attempt at humor. Steam can only measures games played that were sold via Steam.

    Of course. It would been better if Steam had not just released a version of ESO, but yeah, my point is that when you take a microscopic subset of a population that may not even represent a true cross section of customer participation, you end up with numbers like what I posted for Steam.

    If Zenimax gave 30 days free to each of us who who ran Raptr's software, ESO would rank much higher in the next Raptr survey. Those numbers would also not reflect the true customer participation.

    Again, the point is that if the microscopic sample size does not mirror the larger population, the numbers are meaningless.
    XBox EU/NA:@ElsonsoJannus
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    Total in-game hours: 11321
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  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    I do hope that was an attempt at humor. Steam can only measures games played that were sold via Steam.

    Of course. It would been better if Steam had not just released a version of ESO, but yeah, my point is that when you take a microscopic subset of a population that may not even represent a true cross section of customer participation, you end up with numbers like what I posted for Steam.

    If Zenimax gave 30 days free to each of us who who ran Raptr's software, ESO would rank much higher in the next Raptr survey. Those numbers would also not reflect the true customer participation.

    Again, the point is that if the microscopic sample size does not mirror the larger population, the numbers are meaningless.

    Not entirely correct. A sample size of as few as fifty can be used to demonstrate trends for groups of thousands with a reliability has high as 95%. And while it is true to say that IF Raptr had done X Then Y would not be valid," the fact remains that as Raptr has not done X, it is pointless to discuss X affecting Y.

    One can argue that perhaps Raptr is not truly spot-on, as it is used by people who are into such things, and as someone else pointed out, perhaps ESO is falling into a niche for older casual gamers.

    If so, the question remains why it failed to attract mainstream gamers, and is becoming an Eve-like niche game. when it is clear it was being marketed for the mainstream gamers.

    I do agree that Steam's low numbers for ESO are indicative of a problem, but the comparison must either be ESO with itself over time, or ESO compared to other Steam titles that are sold both via Steam and independently. However, the latter suffers from other variables sneaking in, such as what is the predominant method of sales for each title(s).
  • Nylan
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    I don't play anyone of those games that are listed ahead of ESO, so as far as im concerned, the list is irrelevant.
  • d.crosgrove_ESO
    d.crosgrove_ESO
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    This is one of those websites that takes a very specific data set and attempts to generalize it to a larger community based on the premise that (1) they have enough of a sample size to represent a larger community and (2) that their community has the same cross-section as the larger community.

    Specifically, this is all about people who run the Raptr spyware and what games they play.

    It is very accurate in how it portrays Raptr users but not so much when it comes to everyone else.

    It might be worth noting that Elder Scrolls Online is down in the bottom 50 of the current Top 100 on Steam and is at 2000 players today. While it is below Rift (2500 players today) it is well above World of Warcraft and Wildstar, which apparently no one is playing anymore.

    I do hope that was an attempt at humor. Steam can only measures games played that were sold via Steam. As such, it isn't a very good indicator unless compared to its own numbers over time--i.e. if you were to look at 3,000 Steam users last month, and 2,000 this month, that would be an indicator one could extrapolate to overall trends.

    However, the problem with that would be a lot of people will be leaving at the end of the their one month after purchasing via Steam.

    I agree, your limited sample size of data, is much more compelling then his limited sample size of data...

    I was really impressed with the is this an attempt at humor. That made me laugh, and really sold it for me.

    You need to look up the word "humor". Humor can also be delivered via irony and sarcasm. LordRichter caught my meaning even if it was beyond your ken.
    Edited by d.crosgrove_ESO on August 6, 2014 8:47PM
This discussion has been closed.