Population shrinking, PLEASE do something

YandereGirlfriend

Personofsecrets wrote: »

manukartofanu wrote: »

The topic has practically died out. Meanwhile, according to Steam statistics for November, ESO has hit a 7-year low in activity. Considering the game's age, these are nearly all-time lows in its history. But the discussion somehow started in a thread about lags.
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8229312/#Comment_8229312

The number doesn't seem that much lower. We are down, through Steam numbers, only a couple of thousand players considering the quarter that we are in. The 2020 growth was obviously unsustainable.

We also don't necessarily know what non-steam numbers look like. Maybe they are fine.

Steam is still a sufficiently large sample to surface trends and there is no behavioral difference between Steam and non-Steam users on PC.

Consoles might have been a different story when ESO was basically the only MMO that could be played but console players now have a ton of new options that didn't exist back in the day.

TLDR; If it shows up on Steam then it's a trend that IS happening in the game.

Udrath

It’s good they’re working on a new IP considering ESO started development in like 2008 or something. This game is old and gone through to many changes, and if anything they have tons of player data from all their tests/changes to make a great game.

colossalvoids

Udrath wrote: »

It’s good they’re working on a new IP considering ESO started development in like 2008 or something. This game is old and gone through to many changes, and if anything they have tons of player data from all their tests/changes to make a great game.

Or to make the same mistakes, like making a game revolving around crown store. Being honest their development cycles aren't getting me excited for anything they might work on, especially if that's a completely new IP.

INM

colossalvoids wrote: »

Or to make the same mistakes, like making a game revolving around crown store. Being honest their development cycles aren't getting me excited for anything they might work on, especially if that's a completely new IP.

Same, I won't touch another ZoS' project ever. How they managed ESO is a crime,

Jaraal

Udrath wrote: »

It’s good they’re working on a new IP considering ESO started development in like 2008 or something. This game is old and gone through to many changes, and if anything they have tons of player data from all their tests/changes to make a great game.

Conversely, inability or unwillingness to fix chronic problems that have been around for years, combined with silence about such issues will affect any company's reputation, and give potential customers reason to avoid future offerings from such companies.

If you take your used car to a mechanic, and he is unable to repair it, or even tell you what's wrong with it.... how likely are you to take your brand new car to the same mechanic for service?

HazierBlue

manukartofanu wrote: »

The topic has practically died out. Meanwhile, according to Steam statistics for November, ESO has hit a 7-year low in activity. Considering the game's age, these are nearly all-time lows in its history. But the discussion somehow started in a thread about lags.
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8229312/#Comment_8229312

Uh oh.. you mentioned Steam. Prepare to get lectured about Steam being inaccurate and unrepresentative of the health of the game.

OtarTheMad

manukartofanu wrote: »

The topic has practically died out. Meanwhile, according to Steam statistics for November, ESO has hit a 7-year low in activity. Considering the game's age, these are nearly all-time lows in its history. But the discussion somehow started in a thread about lags.
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8229312/#Comment_8229312

I think that’s normal. Right now ESO has no new content until Q1 of 2025, and even that is just two dungeons so it won’t appeal to everyone.

Meanwhile we got a new Dragon Age game, Throne and Liberty, Enshrouded just released a new update, Avowed is around the corner etc. We’ll see dips. The recent High Isle event was pretty active though. Was doing vents at 11pm or so on a random weekday and TONS of players were doing them.

Personofsecrets

Rkindaleft wrote: »

It is true we don’t have complete information, but I primarily do trials and I’ve never seen the population and participation level there as small as it is now. Whether it’s caused by bad updates or performance issues or both, I’ve seen so many people I know stop doing trials or playing altogether and there’s hardly anyone new coming in to replace them (at that level at least).

I've been looking to tank for quite a while now. It doesn't really seem like groups are hurting for one. That's my anecdote.

colossalvoids

Personofsecrets wrote: »

Rkindaleft wrote: »

It is true we don’t have complete information, but I primarily do trials and I’ve never seen the population and participation level there as small as it is now. Whether it’s caused by bad updates or performance issues or both, I’ve seen so many people I know stop doing trials or playing altogether and there’s hardly anyone new coming in to replace them (at that level at least).

I've been looking to tank for quite a while now. It doesn't really seem like groups are hurting for one. That's my anecdote.

Don't think much anecdotal evidences are needed at this point as a lot of older active players that were doing endgame and endgame'ish content are clearly seeing it, or are left already themselves.

Elsonso

colossalvoids wrote: »

Udrath wrote: »

It’s good they’re working on a new IP considering ESO started development in like 2008 or something. This game is old and gone through to many changes, and if anything they have tons of player data from all their tests/changes to make a great game.

Or to make the same mistakes, like making a game revolving around crown store. Being honest their development cycles aren't getting me excited for anything they might work on, especially if that's a completely new IP.

This new IP is being developed in a completely different gaming landscape. Just based on other games in the industry, it has a chance to fail immediately out of the gate, if it is not cut before it even releases. Emphasis at many large studios and studio conglomerates recently seem to be creating games that have other priorities above being fun to play. Those games don't seem to be attracting a lot of revenue.

We are seeing IPs being torn down, studios failing and being closed, and even larger gaming conglomerates suffering because they cannot reliably make games that enough people want to play.

ESO is no stranger to this, and my feeling is that the last year or so has seen a lot less emphasis by ZOS on making the game fun and attractive. I can see they are trying, but it is like they are shooting at the target with their eyes closed. They seem focused on grinds and cash shop, and neither of those things are particularly fun.

If the population is shrinking, I figure that is why.

colossalvoids

Elsonso wrote: »

colossalvoids wrote: »

Udrath wrote: »

It’s good they’re working on a new IP considering ESO started development in like 2008 or something. This game is old and gone through to many changes, and if anything they have tons of player data from all their tests/changes to make a great game.

Or to make the same mistakes, like making a game revolving around crown store. Being honest their development cycles aren't getting me excited for anything they might work on, especially if that's a completely new IP.

This new IP is being developed in a completely different gaming landscape. Just based on other games in the industry, it has a chance to fail immediately out of the gate, if it is not cut before it even releases. Emphasis at many large studios and studio conglomerates recently seem to be creating games that have other priorities above being fun to play. Those games don't seem to be attracting a lot of revenue.

We are seeing IPs being torn down, studios failing and being closed, and even larger gaming conglomerates suffering because they cannot reliably make games that enough people want to play.

ESO is no stranger to this, and my feeling is that the last year or so has seen a lot less emphasis by ZOS on making the game fun and attractive. I can see they are trying, but it is like they are shooting at the target with their eyes closed. They seem focused on grinds and cash shop, and neither of those things are particularly fun.

If the population is shrinking, I figure that is why.

I at least hope it's obvious to them also. Actually, seeing their actions just nevermind.

Tariq9898

There's already a thread for what I'm about to say. But I'm just gonna touch upon it real quick.

For me, the biggest issue is how braindead easy the Overland is. I tried getting my friends to play and they all said it's too easy... There's no sense of challenge and therefore, it's not very engaging. Adding a difficulty option would not only benefit the storytelling, it'll also improve the QoL.

It's not good QoL if new players have to play 100 hours to get to the challenging stuff.

Elvenheart

I think the issue with the population shrinking could be fixed if they would take the Fabled Brewmasters out of the Infinite Archive.

INM

OtarTheMad wrote: »

Meanwhile we got a new Dragon Age game, Throne and Liberty, Enshrouded just released a new update, Avowed is around the corner etc. We’ll see dips. The recent High Isle event was pretty active though. Was doing vents at 11pm or so on a random weekday and TONS of players were doing them.

Do you really believe in it? There are a ton of games released through the year, through the every year, trying to tie the obvious trend of multiple years to seasonal events that happen every year is just pure coping. Why do other games not experience this "everyone is playing a hot release/on vacation/in school/celebrating Christmas/Easter etc."?

Elsonso

INM wrote: »

OtarTheMad wrote: »

Meanwhile we got a new Dragon Age game, Throne and Liberty, Enshrouded just released a new update, Avowed is around the corner etc. We’ll see dips. The recent High Isle event was pretty active though. Was doing vents at 11pm or so on a random weekday and TONS of players were doing them.

Do you really believe in it? There are a ton of games released through the year, through the every year, trying to tie the obvious trend of multiple years to seasonal events that happen every year is just pure coping. Why do other games not experience this "everyone is playing a hot release/on vacation/in school/celebrating Christmas/Easter etc."?

I am sure that a lot of games experience that. Live service games are vulnerable to other live service games, holidays, vacations, etc, in a way that single player games are not. Cyclical player numbers are probably not unusual.

ESO players have had this obsession with "it'll be dead any moment now" for the last 10 years. It is sort of the "thing". I think it is because so many players see some sort of potential in the game that ZOS has never taken advantage of, so the players assume that means the game will die. I do not think they are necessarily wrong. It is just a slow process. I don't think that ZOS is the studio that can make ESO more successful than it currently is. I do think they are a studio that can manage the decline and drag out the game a few more years.

As for the "competition"... I don't think Veilguard is a danger to any game but itself. It is probably not stealing players from anything else.

I fear that Avowed is going to be the next big AAA game failure. The recent dev meltdown certainly didn't help. I would not want to be working there because I would be afraid that it will be the next studio that XBox shutters. I am not expecting it to steal players from other games.

Throne and Liberty and New World are probably the biggest threats to ESO. Throne and Liberty has been trending down since October, and while it has leveled off some, I think it is still trending down. New World is down in the basement with ESO.

I just think that maybe the era of live service games might be waning. Players will settle on the one they like, but I doubt most of them will be the cash cows that the studios are expecting. The studios that can manage expenses enough to make the game profitable, and escape the corporate mandates, will be able to keep their games open. I think ZOS can do that, but I question whether XBox has the patience and tolerance.

moderatelyfatman

Elsonso wrote: »

INM wrote: »

OtarTheMad wrote: »

Meanwhile we got a new Dragon Age game, Throne and Liberty, Enshrouded just released a new update, Avowed is around the corner etc. We’ll see dips. The recent High Isle event was pretty active though. Was doing vents at 11pm or so on a random weekday and TONS of players were doing them.

Do you really believe in it? There are a ton of games released through the year, through the every year, trying to tie the obvious trend of multiple years to seasonal events that happen every year is just pure coping. Why do other games not experience this "everyone is playing a hot release/on vacation/in school/celebrating Christmas/Easter etc."?

I am sure that a lot of games experience that. Live service games are vulnerable to other live service games, holidays, vacations, etc, in a way that single player games are not. Cyclical player numbers are probably not unusual.

ESO players have had this obsession with "it'll be dead any moment now" for the last 10 years. It is sort of the "thing". I think it is because so many players see some sort of potential in the game that ZOS has never taken advantage of, so the players assume that means the game will die. I do not think they are necessarily wrong. It is just a slow process. I don't think that ZOS is the studio that can make ESO more successful than it currently is. I do think they are a studio that can manage the decline and drag out the game a few more years.

As for the "competition"... I don't think Veilguard is a danger to any game but itself. It is probably not stealing players from anything else.

I fear that Avowed is going to be the next big AAA game failure. The recent dev meltdown certainly didn't help. I would not want to be working there because I would be afraid that it will be the next studio that XBox shutters. I am not expecting it to steal players from other games.

Throne and Liberty and New World are probably the biggest threats to ESO. Throne and Liberty has been trending down since October, and while it has leveled off some, I think it is still trending down. New World is down in the basement with ESO.

I just think that maybe the era of live service games might be waning. Players will settle on the one they like, but I doubt most of them will be the cash cows that the studios are expecting. The studios that can manage expenses enough to make the game profitable, and escape the corporate mandates, will be able to keep their games open. I think ZOS can do that, but I question whether XBox has the patience and tolerance.

The thing that gets me is that Guild Wars 2 is 2 years older than ESO, Final Fantasy 14 came out in 2010 and World of Warcraft is 20 years old. While these MMOs show their age, they still give the impression of a spritely middle age rather than that of sickly decline. If you go to the General Forums of these games, the number of posts discussing the game are still fairly lively and not just complaints.

I just can't see PvP numbers recovering: a number of my PvP guildies have moved over to T&L and New World. Connections permitting, they log into ESO once a week to help the guild out with Trials but otherwise no longer PvP in ESO. Their reason is simply that they expect their combat skills to actually work in combat when they activate them as a minimum standard in a game. I do not think that these PvPers are going to come back any time soon until the same is true for ESO and even in the unlikely event that it does happen, ESO will still have to win them back from their new homes. I also don't see PvP as attractive enough to draw in decent numbers of new players when there are better options out there.

A bigger issue is the brain drain: in my GW2 guild there are a large number of long time players who can support me. I have been playing GW2 for about 800 hours and in the Trials I am still the most junior member. There are multiple players running with me that have put in excess of 5k hours into that game who can give me advice on what I'm doing wrong. This was also true in ESO 4-5 years ago but no longer the case now. Also look at the content creators such as Alcast or Nefas who are pulling back from creating guides. Without this part of the community, we will start losing the ability to finish endgame content and ZOS will be forced to dumb down the game further so new players can play the game.

colossalvoids

Elsonso wrote: »

INM wrote: »

OtarTheMad wrote: »

Meanwhile we got a new Dragon Age game, Throne and Liberty, Enshrouded just released a new update, Avowed is around the corner etc. We’ll see dips. The recent High Isle event was pretty active though. Was doing vents at 11pm or so on a random weekday and TONS of players were doing them.

Do you really believe in it? There are a ton of games released through the year, through the every year, trying to tie the obvious trend of multiple years to seasonal events that happen every year is just pure coping. Why do other games not experience this "everyone is playing a hot release/on vacation/in school/celebrating Christmas/Easter etc."?

I just think that maybe the era of live service games might be waning.

To me it's you either have a strong heritage (wow, ff, gw) or you're a really strong title for people to see a potential, slops are starting to not cut it for people after "breakthrough" games like elden ring, baldurs gate etc. as people do expect quality and care from the developers. We can clearly see even major franchises not being able to sustain just on their past grace while delivering absolute garbage even by modern standards.

alternatelder

INM wrote: »

OtarTheMad wrote: »

Meanwhile we got a new Dragon Age game, Throne and Liberty, Enshrouded just released a new update, Avowed is around the corner etc. We’ll see dips. The recent High Isle event was pretty active though. Was doing vents at 11pm or so on a random weekday and TONS of players were doing them.

Do you really believe in it? There are a ton of games released through the year, through the every year, trying to tie the obvious trend of multiple years to seasonal events that happen every year is just pure coping. Why do other games not experience this "everyone is playing a hot release/on vacation/in school/celebrating Christmas/Easter etc."?

Actually this same thing happens with a lot of games during events, school, vacation times, lol, that's not "coping". You can look at the "reliable" steam counts to even see the rises and dips coincide with chapter releases and events.

DanteTheDeviant

Just came back. Left earlier this year because of the horrible anniversary event that made me burn out after spending over 8 days of grinding just to get a single staff skin, and not having enough time to get any of the others, in addition to the continued neglect of the necromancer class. My thoughts so far:

• Spell skins are awesome, but the one in the store is overpriced.
• Necromancer changes finally are good and playing the class doesn't feel like self harm.
• Just started the spell crafting stuff, so far its okay, though it looks like it'll be somewhat of a grind.
• New zone storyline is off to a very slow/disconnected start from where it ended last year, but hoping it'll pick up in speed.
• New battelgrounds I haven't tried, but it sounds fun/promising.
• Old chapter content like jewelry crafting and the warden class should be part of base game by now, there's really no excuse for keeping it pay-walled this long. It makes the barrier to entry too high for new and returning players/meaning less people gonna play the game.

So far the changes are 7/10 for me. Enough to keep me entertained and for me to renew my 365-day plus membership.

Rogue_Coyote

Another major sore point among some players is the predictable process of introducing something "amazing" and "must have" to sell chapter expansions, only to completely gut said awesome item or set a few months later, if that. Costing players time, energy, and materials.

XSTRONG

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

Jaraal

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

They definitely seem to be cutting back on features. Maintenance mode is getting closer every day.

manukartofanu

Rogue_Coyote wrote: »

Another major sore point among some players is the predictable process of introducing something "amazing" and "must have" to sell chapter expansions, only to completely gut said awesome item or set a few months later, if that. Costing players time, energy, and materials.

They introduced the arcanist a year and a half ago. It's still OP, but it doesn't seem to help the game much.

moderatelyfatman

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

This is extremely worrying when an entertainment company stops doing their major public relation events. I got the feeling we're on the cusp of some upcoming major announcements that will not be good in the short term.

Elsonso

moderatelyfatman wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

This is extremely worrying when an entertainment company stops doing their major public relation events. I got the feeling we're on the cusp of some upcoming major announcements that will not be good in the short term.

I agree. The wrap up note later this month and the January announcements don't feel like they are going to be good news.

Rkindaleft

Elsonso wrote: »

moderatelyfatman wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

This is extremely worrying when an entertainment company stops doing their major public relation events. I got the feeling we're on the cusp of some upcoming major announcements that will not be good in the short term.

I agree. The wrap up note later this month and the January announcements don't feel like they are going to be good news.

I'm starting to question if the time is in sight where they're going to announce that new chapters aren't going to be annual, or something else. I seriously doubt chapter content (quests and the trial) is ready to stop entirely but it might not happen every year. The content tide has started to go out and has taken the ship out with it, so to speak. That much has been obvious as soon as they changed how the Q3 and Q4 updates work to be more QoL and fixes based and with the reduction of this years' chapter content.

moderatelyfatman

Rkindaleft wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

moderatelyfatman wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

This is extremely worrying when an entertainment company stops doing their major public relation events. I got the feeling we're on the cusp of some upcoming major announcements that will not be good in the short term.

I agree. The wrap up note later this month and the January announcements don't feel like they are going to be good news.

I'm starting to question if the time is in sight where they're going to announce that new chapters aren't going to be annual, or something else. I seriously doubt chapter content (quests and the trial) is ready to stop entirely but it might not happen every year. The content tide has started to go out and has taken the ship out with it, so to speak. That much has been obvious as soon as they changed how the Q3 and Q4 updates work to be more QoL and fixes based and with the reduction of this years' chapter content.

My gut feeling is that Microsoft has been watching things slide over the last 2 years and has finally dropped the hammer. ZOS will announced a major company restructure and that ESO will not be having a new chapter next year but will be working on bug fixing and QoL features.

If this is true then it will be a lean year for players but this time there might be a chance of very real change for the better. Fingers and toes crossed.

WolfieVZ

Zos could get at least 1 player back by giving me a toggle for the "sustainability" features on console, I get sick just opening writ boxes.

I_killed_Vivec

Rkindaleft wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

moderatelyfatman wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

This is extremely worrying when an entertainment company stops doing their major public relation events. I got the feeling we're on the cusp of some upcoming major announcements that will not be good in the short term.

I agree. The wrap up note later this month and the January announcements don't feel like they are going to be good news.

I'm starting to question if the time is in sight where they're going to announce that new chapters aren't going to be annual, or something else. I seriously doubt chapter content (quests and the trial) is ready to stop entirely but it might not happen every year. The content tide has started to go out and has taken the ship out with it, so to speak. That much has been obvious as soon as they changed how the Q3 and Q4 updates work to be more QoL and fixes based and with the reduction of this years' chapter content.

I have a feeling this might be the case. I think their new masters (Microsoft) have come in and asked how the game can be monetized without significant expenditure - they can see a vast game that most people go through once and then completely abandon. 1T and things like surveys encouraged people to go back to "starter" zones a bit more... endeavours had a minor impact (and maybe encouraged people into PvP on occasion).

The game now seems to concentrate on events to get us back into specific zones we might not revisit... Golden Pursuits looks to go even further, taking people into PvP, trials and dungeons. Encouraging people to be happy with what we already have... "Oooo look, a new event!".

I'm not an accountant but I bet someone said something like "Remonetize historic assets".

Elsonso

Rkindaleft wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

moderatelyfatman wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

No anniversary event in US, the game is going rapidly downhill, I will be suprised if they even support this game in 2 years or so

This is extremely worrying when an entertainment company stops doing their major public relation events. I got the feeling we're on the cusp of some upcoming major announcements that will not be good in the short term.

I agree. The wrap up note later this month and the January announcements don't feel like they are going to be good news.

I'm starting to question if the time is in sight where they're going to announce that new chapters aren't going to be annual, or something else. I seriously doubt chapter content (quests and the trial) is ready to stop entirely but it might not happen every year. The content tide has started to go out and has taken the ship out with it, so to speak. That much has been obvious as soon as they changed how the Q3 and Q4 updates work to be more QoL and fixes based and with the reduction of this years' chapter content.

I would not be surprised if they announced that the 2025 Chapter would be the last one, at least for a while, or that the 2025 Chapter would be canceled, or postponed, so they can focus the studio attention on New Game and New Game launch. Every day, we get closer to New Game announce.

I do think that will have a very dire impact on ESO daily player numbers, if they dial back ESO development any further. People are only going to show up for so long to do content reheats (Golden Pursuits and Events).