The RNG Seeding Issue is Grotesque, Grotesque, Seeding, Issue, Issue, Seeding, Issue

sayswhoto

@ZOS_Kevin

Here is a video that could illustrate some of the potential RNG seeding issues people may have been encountering. I've highlighted what I thought were the most obvious cases, but there are some other events that might be relevant too. I won't detail those for now. Here are the obvious ones:

Turn 1 (00:05) - Dreaming Cave replaced with another Dreaming Cave
Turn 3 (00:29) - Three Harvest Seasons appear by Turn 3
Turn 4 (01:21)- The third Harvest Season is bought and replaced with the fourth Harvest Season
Turn 5 (01:55) - Third Dreaming Cove by Turn 5.
(03:21) - Double Pool of Shadows
(03:30) to (03:49) - Followed by double Time Mastery

These times are also in the video description.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE7phhnV7w8&t=1s

I also want to add that my opponent conceded at the end, possibly due to frustration. Watching someone endlessly combo and cycle has been a frustrating aspect of this game. I don't know if anything can be done at this point in ToT (except for a major redesign), but I do want to continue to emphasize that this is an element of the game people might not enjoy.

Personofsecrets

lol at there being all 3 time mastery, stubborn shadow, dreaming cave, and copies of multiple crow cards in the top half of the deck.

One thing that I've been thinking of is that the design team can't possibly not know about this issue. Probably not much that they can do about it.

Personofsecrets

Some how, the TOT deck has more cards than the poker deck but 3 of a kind is just a thing that happens in most games by the 2nd/3rd round.

Personofsecrets

@ZOS_Kevin

I was feeling pretty positive today and have now lost that feeling after going 2nd 6 games in a row in TOT. That second player position HIGHLY contributing to losing 150 points twice for a score of -300 while winning 5 times which gained around 150 points.

I appreciate the 10th anniverssary stream and learning about all that has gone into ESO. It certainly is a massive undertaking. It was cool to see the early state of the game from the old saved video.

Can the RNG seeding issue be fixed? Maybe or maybe not. It could be a highly technical area of the game that is hard to touch. It's easy to maybe even say that most people probably won't notice or be that impacted by the issue and it's hard to change anyhow, so oh well.

But on a number of other issues such as the ranking system and card balance, I feel like the players, especially myself, have given the design team the tools that they need to make a more enjoyable and successful TOT.

The idea was put before me that maybe you all have data which you use to determine whether or not you should change those more easily fixed issues. And that may sometimes be a valid idea.

But I will push back on that idea with another thought that some things are so wrong that data or philosophy or whatever would be just an excuse used, a justification, for not changing such things that are so blatantly and obviously wrong.

I certainly don't have an optimistic view for any of the changes that I discuss in this message. That's just who I am - an often overly gloomy person regarding the outlook of anything. But I wasn't always dispirited about the prospects of TOT. And please prove my current self wrong.

Again, you have the tools.

There is this thread.

There are recent threads regarding a few bugs and I know for a fact that you all have been dilligent about some of these.

There is the below linked thread regarding balance and a number of other game aspects.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/640875/evaluating-the-2023-state-of-the-game-and-suggestions#latest

For crying out loud, change Pounce and Profit/Grand Larceny. Easy access to 8 gold by the second rould is so obviously wrong that it's right up their with the "thou shall nots."

Personofsecrets

Feel welcome to message me. I once mentioned in a critical way how many TOT changes even go without patch notes. We are in the age of information and communication is easier than ever before. That doesn't mean that it is without it's difficulties, but remember that I'm here for YOU.

sayswhoto

@ZOS_Kevin

I know we keep bothering you on this subject, but I think this will be my last video to highlight the RNG issue.

Every time I buy a card, my opponent gets a Customs Seizure (3 times in a row).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUidqR3YXRo

Seraphayel

You know what I find more disturbing? Playing several matches against the same opponent in a row and it’s either you or the enemy going second each turn. How likely is that? I just had four matches against the same enemy and I went second four times. And then I continued to play six more games and in each of them I went second again. Hello? Sorry, but something is broken.

Guess how many Crow games those have been? 6. Guess how many of these games I’ve lost? 6. And another two on top of that. Going second 10 times in a row, losing 8 of them.

Personofsecrets

I initially pointed out the seeding issue of 1st/2nd player since for a very long time I was going first the vast majority of my games. It seems like something has changed since I did begin to notice long chains of going second.

Obviously we can expect chains of going first or second in a random system. What I don't seem to experience anywhere near as much as chains of going first or second are long chains of going back and forth between first and second. Maybe I'm not noticing this type of RNG since I'm looking for other extremes, but it genuinely seems to not happen as much.

sayswhoto

I'm bumping this thread back since this is an important topic that can greatly affect ToT games. There should be enough screenshot and video evidence in this thread to at least suspect an RNG issue.

I'll summarize what could be possible implications of this and after that will leave it up to the ToT forum community if they still want to highlight this subject.

If the possibility of drawing multiples of the same card is disproportionately greater (most of these everyone is aware of):

• Combo heavy decks like Crow become even stronger as you can more easily chain multiple combo cards.
• Power generating strategies like Orgnum+Pelin, Midnight Raid, and Pelin are also enhanced since power cards can be accumulated with greater frequency. This can easily lock out a game if acquired early.
• Turn one player is favored even more as they usually have the initiative to buy cards. An example would be getting around 10 gold on Turn 1 with the Hlaalu 1 gold card and two Ebony/Kwawa Mines.
• Trying to control the tavern with card replacement becomes less effective and this reduces the ability for a player to regain the lead.

Duplicates might also happen in more subtle ways. Here are some events to consider as examples:

• If I bought X amount of cards, what is the probability my hand keeps getting 5 one gold coins? This basically skips a turn in the mid to late game since it is so ineffective compared to playing other cards. For this reason, I actually think Pelin/Red Eagle+Psijic can be better than Orgnum+Pelin. Missing power generation opportunities is devastating to low economy power rush deck combos.
• Similarly, if i have X amount of cards and Y amount of Bewilderment cards, what is the probability my hand keeps getting filled with Bewilderment cards?
• What is the probability one Patron's card keeps showing up more so than the other Patrons picked? Example, why are there so many Crow cards in the top portion of the tavern?

I want to also suggest some deck combo's to help mitigate these issues:

• As the second turn player, Rahjin+Almalexia could would work well as a defensive strategy. This is mainly for the ability to deny strong turn one cards picks with Almalexia's patron power along with diluting combo potential with Rahjin's patron power. These are both easily accessible and do not rely on card draw (less variation). As an example, even if the Turn one player gets Grand Larceny/Pounce and Profit on Turn One, the card has a good chance of being denied one or two turns with Almalexia's patron power. Almalexia cards also provide some deck cycling. All these capabilities help to mitigate some of the possible RNG issues mentioned above.
• As the first turn player, it might be a good idea to replace the Orgnum+Pelin strategy with Peiln+Psijic. The cycling of Psijic cards will reduce the chance of having too many 1 gold cards appear, assuming there is an RNG issue that increases this occurrence more than it would appear from pseudorandom probabilities. Crow+Red Eagle should continue to work as well.

maxxiestackhouse

Haven’t played in 3 weeks as Anniversary Event. First game back while I was eating dinner.

I hit 48 opponent 34…. Should be a win… NOPE!

The Tavern gave him 3 Ebony Mines, 3 extra Patron contract cards……

He got me down to 43 with Rajin and they ended up on 46…. I didnt even bother playing my next hand I just quit.

I’m so done with ToT it can go F itself.

Seraphayel

Funny enough the day I stopped playing ToT after the anniversary my mood from playing ESO just increased. I didn’t know how frustrating and outright demotivating playing a dozen ToT matches per day was for my overall mood. My mood the whole day just became better because having some of these weird random matches being lost to pure luck or RNG issues was dragging me down more than I could have imagined. Sounds crazy, but it really is like that. Not playing ToT for several days now while playing ESO the same and I just feel… better.

Personofsecrets

Seraphayel wrote: »

Funny enough the day I stopped playing ToT after the anniversary my mood from playing ESO just increased. I didn’t know how frustrating and outright demotivating playing a dozen ToT matches per day was for my overall mood. My mood the whole day just became better because having some of these weird random matches being lost to pure luck or RNG issues was dragging me down more than I could have imagined. Sounds crazy, but it really is like that. Not playing ToT for several days now while playing ESO the same and I just feel… better.

TOT is absolutely toxic and because of the random elements.

sayswhoto

Glad this thread is getting some attention again, and it should a be a reference for future rounds of ToT players. I skimmed through the posts of this forum, and it seems like each new round of ToT players has to rediscover these issues though yet another cycle of frustration. If this is more than a RNG seeding issue and is an actual intentional system, then this is extremely exploitative.

I know I still have much to improve playing ToT, but each game can't be such an uphill battle. Going second all the time and having my opponent be handed the cards needed to win.

I want to reiterate this example:

• Everytime I buy a card my opponent gets a Customs Seizure; 3 times in a row.
• This is fairly early in the game, very close to the start. So there are about 100 or so cards in the tavern if I'm not mistaken.
• Customs Seizure is an incredibly strong card right now (acquire up to a 6 cost card). It's even stronger when someone gets three of them this early. A strong early economy is also a great way to beat the Orgnum+Pelin strategy I was trying to practice.

The icing on the cake is that toward the end my opponent uses a Customs Seizure to get another Customs Seizure.
https://youtu.be/uUidqR3YXRo

Personofsecrets

Just yesterday I had to complain to an opponent after the seeding issue that seemed to happen. Two midnight raids are in the EARLY tavern, so obviously we both have to take one. The third one shows up, still early, and the opponent buys it. They also get two Time Mastery which is extremely effective in this situation.

Most notably is that despite the opponents taking of power cards, they are still able to threaten a potential future turn with 8 gold which would allow them to buy a Rally that is sitting in the tavern.

Not only is there seemingly the seeding issue, but players with explosive starts can keep growing and have reasonable chances at getting 8 cost cards. That is to say that there seems to be an RNG issue and there definitely is a game balance issue.

Seraphayel

Seraphayel wrote: »

Funny enough the day I stopped playing ToT after the anniversary my mood from playing ESO just increased. I didn’t know how frustrating and outright demotivating playing a dozen ToT matches per day was for my overall mood. My mood the whole day just became better because having some of these weird random matches being lost to pure luck or RNG issues was dragging me down more than I could have imagined. Sounds crazy, but it really is like that. Not playing ToT for several days now while playing ESO the same and I just feel… better.

Just to reiterate on this… I decided to play ToT again to try and rank up a bit before the month is over. After 18 matches of which 12 were lost I was 60 places off worse than I was before (fell out of the Top 100). Some of those losses were for sure my fault, but some of them were so absurd that I just had to shake my head.

One scenario: I was at 74, opponent at 54, I would have definitely won in the next round. Opponent had one power card that was the 6 coin Mora card. What happened next? Opponent pulls two Mora contracts in succession and just finishes the round with 81 points. This was the only possible option for him to win. And it happened.

Another scenario happened with Druid. I went second, opponent bought an agent. I bought a card, don’t remember which. What pops up next? Forest Wraith. Opponent buys it. Next round I bought another card for 2 coins. What pops up next? Forest Wraith. Opponent buys Wraith. By round three opponent had two Forest Wraiths and a Druid agent active. I had zero cards with power. I conceded the match after he bought the second Wraith. I had absolutely no chance to do anything and the match would have become unbearable for me anymore. The loss was guaranteed, I just saved myself some time by conceding.

My entire mood today was miserable due to ToT. It really do be like that. I think I’m done with it for a very, very, very long time. The massive frustration is just not worth it.

El_Borracho

@Seraphayel this scenario happens more often than it should. If you're lucky, when the tavern goes "agent heavy," the tavern usually throws out more Black Sacrament or Ambush cards. Usually, being the operative word, because in situations you have described, the opposite happens and no agent-destroying cards pop up. If you are not running Rajhin or Celarus, it gets out of control really fast. To the point you are confronted with two unwinnable options: (1) use what power you have to eliminate the agents, or (2) pray you can get cards to match. The second rarely occurs and the first puts you in a hole you normally can not recover from.

I had a match today where my opponent and I both bought Warrior Wave on our first turns. He went first and then he got another Warrior Wave on his second turn. And wouldn't you know, on turn 3, both Warrior Waves showed up in his hand at the same time as Ansei's Victory in the tavern. I'm sorry, but this is the equivalent of hitting on 19, getting an ace, then hitting on 20 and getting another ace.

Oh, and what were my options? 3 Ragpickers, a Harvest Season, and Grand Oratory, and wouldn't you know it, after taking a bucket to trim my hand, Ansei's. With no recourse. Sigh.

Personofsecrets

Had another one of the double delmene contracts in the starting tavern again. Another couple matches of 3 philanthropy in the early game too!

Personofsecrets

Buy Prophesy, Prescience appears

Opponent buys Philantrhopy and Lessons

Burn two cards in the Tavern with my Prophesy and Philanthropy and Lessons appear

Forced to buy those two cards and two Dreaming Caves appear, opponent with the initiative

Wow, what a great game

Luke_Flamesword

I think that RNG code is bugged in this game. You all remember anniversary event - how it's possible that we have many players who dropped style pages in 3-15 turns and so many with HUNDREDS times and no luck? With normal rng it should be like this - lucky player gets things with 1-5 draws, unlucky with 40-50. I can believe that couple players had really bad luck and need hundreds tries, but not half of playerbase. How it's possible that it took me only something like 10 hours for all 5 pages nad some people done it for 3 weeks without success? It's too big disproportion to be just a normal RNG.

I have similar experience with Infinite Archive. In first weeks I got so many leads, furnitures, etc. - now I get mostly trash for 90% of time. Sometimes I have couple runs in a row without a single lead!

I had many experiences like this in past - you farm something and usually it take 1-5 tries to get reward but some day it's just impossible - you do it 30 times and nothing. Ot forcing chests - you have 85% of success so how high is propability for failure 4-5 times in a row? Very, very small, but it happens - maybe not very often, but more often than it should be.

Personofsecrets

Luke_Flamesword wrote: »

I think that RNG code is bugged in this game. You all remember anniversary event - how it's possible that we have many players who dropped style pages in 3-15 turns and so many with HUNDREDS times and no luck? With normal rng it should be like this - lucky player gets things with 1-5 draws, unlucky with 40-50. I can believe that couple players had really bad luck and need hundreds tries, but not half of playerbase. How it's possible that it took me only something like 10 hours for all 5 pages nad some people done it for 3 weeks without success? It's too big disproportion to be just a normal RNG.

I have similar experience with Infinite Archive. In first weeks I got so many leads, furnitures, etc. - now I get mostly trash for 90% of time. Sometimes I have couple runs in a row without a single lead!

I had many experiences like this in past - you farm something and usually it take 1-5 tries to get reward but some day it's just impossible - you do it 30 times and nothing. Ot forcing chests - you have 85% of success so how high is propability for failure 4-5 times in a row? Very, very small, but it happens - maybe not very often, but more often than it should be.

I can point to the monster helmet farms being like that too. I can't remember the last time I got one. Was always the case of going to farm with a group, one person get's multiple mask style page drops, and the others don't get one.

Seraphayel

All of ToT is a mess. On PlayStation EU the new ranked league hasn’t even begun yet. I opened a topic for this, maybe you can keep it bumped too, because ZOS isn’t answering:

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8106730#Comment_8106730

Can you imagine having leaderboards for ToT and then the league that usually should start at the 1st of each month hasn‘t started on the 5th yet? We didn’t even get the rewards for our ranking from April yet, it’s just a mess.

El_Borracho

@Luke_Flamesword without a doubt. Still seeing the crazy 3-of-a-kind cards popping up in the tavern. Have also noticed that the NPCs have developed a pattern of picking their patrons, but on a weekly basis. Only speaking as to the "Cards Across the Continent" NPCs, but last week (Tuesday to Monday for game purposes) the NPCs were all over Hlaalu and Pelin. Almost every game featured Hlaalu. After seeing this for a couple days in a row, I would immediately quit the game and see what the NPC would pick the next game. Hlaalu and X four times in a row before switching to Pelin and Orgnum. Quit again and back to Hlaalu.

This week, its all about Almalexia. Its been annoying as I hate that deck without the wonky RNG thrown in with those agents. It all seems to track that the RNG feels like it gets stuck in loop. Heck, with the crates in the daily rewards, I've got the same ornamentation 3 days in a row

Seraphayel

Do I need to say more? I think my opponent ended up with 30-40 coin that round.

Seraphayel

Did someone recognize how often you have losing streaks when you’re constantly going second? I just went second five times in a row and I lost all five matches.

One of them was another I am 25 power ahead but give my opponent three patron usages in that round and hand them the win by doing basically nothing. I love this.

Really the minute I started playing ranked ToT again my ESO experience just became miserable again.

Personofsecrets

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It would be nice if the game was fixed.

Personofsecrets

@ZOS_Kevin Sorry to be a pester, but can you confirm or deny anything regarding the repeat card theory?

El_Borracho

Its getting to the point where ToT is just not fun to play. Games that stood out from last night, in that they were beyond the typical "3 of a kind" in the tavern sillines:

Game 1: NPC got 3 Forest Wraiths in a row. Zero Black Sacrament or Ambush cards in the entire game

Game 2: NPC played his SINGLE Conquest card 3 hands in a row, despite not eliminating any cards from his 12 card hand, without Celarus or any other way to reshuffle his SINGLE Conquest card back to the top. Every single time it was accompanied by Way of the Sword

Game 3: My personal favorite from yesterday. NPC, going second, got his base Hlaalu card plus 4 coins, and started the game by getting Kwama Egg Mine followed THREE Ebony Mines which were followed by TWO Currency Exchanges, an Unfathomable Secrets, and Rajhin agent spam, of course. All in one turn. To start the game.

What's the point when this happens? Its an immediate BUH BYE rage quit.