Update 35; Good or Bad? (over 11,000 votes)

merpins

TinyDragon wrote: »

sabresandiego_ESO wrote: »

These polls don’t mean much. It’s biased nonsense. The only thing that means anything is what their revenue numbers are and what they look like compared to expected values. I like the patch and will be buying a crown item to show my support

Exactly; it's amazing to see people say this is absolutely not a vocal minority, when all the forum posts are about the same total votes - 250-300. Seems likely to me it's the same people, up in arms.

Saying 11,000 people voted seems quite far fetched. Totals votes, not total players.

You can calculate the accuracy of a survey or poll based on the sample size. The largest single sample size is around 5,000 votes. Even if 20% of those votes are repeats (on a youtube poll meaning people would need to switch accounts to do so, which is unlikely at this kind of scale), it would still be a sample size of 4,000. Based on a sample of that size, the accuracy of the poll has less than a 3% margin for error. Since we're all from the same community, that being people that play ESO, there shouldn't be much, if any, discrepancy between players that watch Skinny Cheeks and participated in his poll, and players that don't and didn't.
With that in mind, taking into account the unlikely scenario that 1,000 votes were repeats, based on his poll results alone, the maximum number of people on his poll that would vote "Yes" is 13%. If you don't take into account that unlikely scenario, the maximum number of people that could vote yes would be 9%, with the minimum being 3%, and the maximum people that could vote "No" is 79%, with a low end of 73%. Statistically, more people are indifferent about the changes than actually like the changes, and the number of people that dislike the changes when compared directly to the number of people that like them is 87.5% are against, with 12.5% in favor.

So... I don't think this is biased, based on statistics and math.

Dr_Con

The polls themselves are flawed in their wording, kind of like how people say certain "fake news" networks gather data. In any event, a lot of what is coming has been needed for a while, and they adjusted veteran bosses to compensate. I don't really have a huge issue with this.

I think the white elephant in the room is stuff like cyrodiil and what they aren't telling us about how the changes impact performance.
Another issue is the scoring system and how this will be impacted (for vet content)

TinyDragon

merpins wrote: »

Since we're all from the same community, that being people that play ESO, there shouldn't be much, if any, discrepancy between players that watch Skinny Cheeks and participated in his poll, and players that don't and didn't.

So... I don't think this is biased, based on statistics and math.

I missed that SkinnyCheeks had +5000 votes- I should've been more detail focused. I don't think that's the same amount of people re-voting. I made it clear that I was talking about forum posts specifically.

But the first point you have there is purely your opinion, not based on statistics or math. You have no evidence that this 5000 sample is representative. All ESO players do not play the same content, play the same amount, have the same goals, understand the game the same etc etc.

In fact, I strongly believe it wouldn't be representative. ESO has a huge casual player base, and the majority aren't engaging
with content creators. People engaging with SkinnyCheeks content, in my opinion, would be looking for content to help them understand the patch, or already have a pre-formed opinion that U35=bad and are looking to express that (so you're gettingnon-response bias because the people participating feel strongly about it. Those petitions have been shared in discords I'm in, but I've yet to see how someone outside the end game raiding community would access them).

boi_anachronism_

It's crazy that people don't understand that if a lot of the end game leaves it has a huge trickle down effect. The knowledge leaves with them, training guilds disband. Content creators are saying they won't post builds. Anyone trying to get into trials is going to be absolutely handicapped by this. There is more to it then just a couple hundred people leaving. Most of my guilds had 50+ players. Countless guilds are going through this. Esou lost a massive portion of their raid leads. The tank club is focusing on other games. This had wider reaching consequences then I think people realize. It's not a vaccum.

ZeroDPS

boi_anachronism_ wrote: »

It's crazy that people don't understand that if a lot of the end game leaves it has a huge trickle down effect. The knowledge leaves with them, training guilds disband. Content creators are saying they won't post builds. Anyone trying to get into trials is going to be absolutely handicapped by this. There is more to it then just a couple hundred people leaving. Most of my guilds had 50+ players. Countless guilds are going through this. Esou lost a massive portion of their raid leads. The tank club is focusing on other games. This had wider reaching consequences then I think people realize. It's not a vaccum.

+1

merpins

TinyDragon wrote: »

But the first point you have there is purely your opinion, not based on statistics or math. You have no evidence that this 5000 sample is representative. All ESO players do not play the same content, play the same amount, have the same goals, understand the game the same etc etc.

In fact, I strongly believe it wouldn't be representative. ESO has a huge casual player base, and the majority aren't engaging
with content creators. People engaging with SkinnyCheeks content, in my opinion, would be looking for content to help them understand the patch, or already have a pre-formed opinion that U35=bad and are looking to express that (so you're gettingnon-response bias because the people participating feel strongly about it. Those petitions have been shared in discords I'm in, but I've yet to see how someone outside the end game raiding community would access them).

No, I don't have evidence that the 5,000 sample is representative. But it doesn't matter if all ESO players don't play the same content, amount, or not have the same goals. A sample of this scale would, statistically, have a good variety of people from the community. That's kind of the point. That's why the reddit post is an outlier; people that aren't even in the ESO community can find and vote on that one. That's why the largest statistic from that one is "don't know, don't care." Every single poll looks the same, whether it be on the forums, on youtube, or reddit (if you strike don't know don't care from that poll). The ratio between like and dislike is consistent. The math I mentioned shows that it would be pretty consistent. I'm sure a portion had a pre-formed opinion about the patch- people have an opinion on it after they read the patch notes most of the time. I'm also sure a portion of people that saw the poll didn't have an opinion yet, so they went to check the patch notes to get an opinion. I don't think this is non-response bias. The sample size is too large, and the sheer number of different polls from different places are too consistent. If you want an example of non-response bias, look at the reddit one again. "don't know, don't care" seems harmless enough, but definitely falls under this phenomena. If it wasn't, the largest factor on every poll would be "mixed" or "other." Fact of the matter, majority opinion IS U35=bad.

If you like the patch, great! Enjoy it! It's going to go live as-is with very little change from the last PTS. But Most people won't enjoy it.

jcasini222ub17_ESO

Even if you place some pretty intense skews on some of these polls (the plus 500 votes) it should be alarming to ZoS.

I would hope people read this thread or look at statistics a bit more with respect to polling. It’s been explained multiple times how sample sizes works even with links. Note I have a BS in political science and have worked on political polls. Others in this thread also have what seems that same statistical background. Like clear as day.

Can things always be improved sure but if your seeing 70 percents and above across multiple plus 500 votes take a minute and think what’s going on. You would have to believe some serious ballot stuffing if you will is going on, the pollster themself is fudging number etc etc. Some real effort of manipulation. That isn’t the case with folks like skinnycheeks.

@merpins already hit on what I was going to touch on regarding collapsible datasets from questions.

merpins

jcasini222ub17_ESO wrote: »

Even if you place some pretty intense skews on some of these polls (the plus 500 votes) it should be alarming to ZoS.

I would hope people read this thread or look at statistics a bit more with respect to polling. It’s been explained multiple times how sample sizes works even with links. Note I have a BS in political science and have worked on political polls. Others in this thread also have what seems that same statistical background. Like clear as day.

Can things always be improved sure but if your seeing 70 percents and above across multiple plus 500 votes take a minute and think what’s going on. You would have to believe some serious ballot stuffing if you will is going on, the pollster themself is fudging number etc etc. Some real effort of manipulation. That isn’t the case with folks like skinnycheeks.

@merpins already hit on what I was going to touch on regarding collapsible datasets from questions.

I don't have a statistics background when it comes to my line of work; I'm an animator. But I like statistics, and if my college had a program for it, I would have minored in it when I was in college. I just find statistical analysis fun, but also something important to know since you can get a feel of whether something you're looking at is significant or not.

DrSlaughtr

To put it bluntly, I don't believe most players will leave for good over this update. Maybe they'll do it for a little bit out of stubbornness but eventually they'll come back and realize not much has changed. A lot of this stuff is overblown. Not saying there aren't valid issues. I have mine. But I've seen all this before and usually it doesn't really end up being the climactic event people predict.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

shadyjane62

ninjagank wrote: »

To put it bluntly, I don't believe most players will leave for good over this update. Maybe they'll do it for a little bit out of stubbornness but eventually they'll come back and realize not much has changed. A lot of this stuff is overblown. Not saying there aren't valid issues. I have mine. But I've seen all this before and usually it doesn't really end up being the climactic event people predict.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

You are wrong. I was there for Galaxies. This feels like that.

DrSlaughtr

shadyjane62 wrote: »

ninjagank wrote: »

To put it bluntly, I don't believe most players will leave for good over this update. Maybe they'll do it for a little bit out of stubbornness but eventually they'll come back and realize not much has changed. A lot of this stuff is overblown. Not saying there aren't valid issues. I have mine. But I've seen all this before and usually it doesn't really end up being the climactic event people predict.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

You are wrong. I was there for Galaxies. This feels like that.

That game lasted right up to the launce of it's replacement. Funny there was a similar uproar with that game a few years ago. Seems like it's doing fine.

Point is, we will see.

Lady_Galadhiel

It's not only forums or polls where people are disliked about the update, I did read it in game in guild chats and several zone chats on both PC Eu and Na, so people who don't read forums or are aware of the update did check it out themselfs after finding out about it and the majority I did get to read are very disliked about the patch.
Word spreads and bad news spread much quicker than good ones.

EldritchSun

Not the patch itself but the direction the devs choose is bad.

shadyjane62

ninjagank wrote: »

shadyjane62 wrote: »

ninjagank wrote: »

To put it bluntly, I don't believe most players will leave for good over this update. Maybe they'll do it for a little bit out of stubbornness but eventually they'll come back and realize not much has changed. A lot of this stuff is overblown. Not saying there aren't valid issues. I have mine. But I've seen all this before and usually it doesn't really end up being the climactic event people predict.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

You are wrong. I was there for Galaxies. This feels like that.

That game lasted right up to the launce of it's replacement. Funny there was a similar uproar with that game a few years ago. Seems like it's doing fine.

Point is, we will see.

Don't know about replacement. Never went back and vowed never to play one of their games again.

Enundr

PrincessOfThieves wrote: »

TinyDragon wrote: »

sabresandiego_ESO wrote: »

These polls don’t mean much. It’s biased nonsense. The only thing that means anything is what their revenue numbers are and what they look like compared to expected values. I like the patch and will be buying a crown item to show my support

Exactly; it's amazing to see people say this is absolutely not a vocal minority, when all the forum posts are about the same total votes - 250-300. Seems likely to me it's the same people, up in arms.

Saying 11,000 people voted seems quite far fetched. Totals votes, not total players.

I don't buy this. I see the same general attitude on every pve discord. Groups are getting disbanded etc.
And while technically they might still be the minority, it's gonna be much, much worse when the majority will see the effects of this patch. The majority of players might not pay attention to patch notes, but they will surely notice that they're getting weaker.

some ppl want to live in denial about how bad this update will be. theyre desperate to try to keep ppl from leaving.....not a new tactic ive seen a community in an mmo doing something bad do.....wildstar comes to mind when there were complaints as well at the game being aimed for the hardcore and generally ignoring the casuals....ppl denied it like here and all the casuals quit the game....wildstar is , sadly , no more. im amazed how people dont like to learn from past mistakes , or if theyre deliberately doing it....

Enundr

boi_anachronism_ wrote: »

It's crazy that people don't understand that if a lot of the end game leaves it has a huge trickle down effect. The knowledge leaves with them, training guilds disband. Content creators are saying they won't post builds. Anyone trying to get into trials is going to be absolutely handicapped by this. There is more to it then just a couple hundred people leaving. Most of my guilds had 50+ players. Countless guilds are going through this. Esou lost a massive portion of their raid leads. The tank club is focusing on other games. This had wider reaching consequences then I think people realize. It's not a vaccum.

ppl like to live in denial of all of this. they want their game to be "perfect" as they see it and talk down to others in ways that is rather....sad....

Enundr

merpins wrote: »

jcasini222ub17_ESO wrote: »

Even if you place some pretty intense skews on some of these polls (the plus 500 votes) it should be alarming to ZoS.

I would hope people read this thread or look at statistics a bit more with respect to polling. It’s been explained multiple times how sample sizes works even with links. Note I have a BS in political science and have worked on political polls. Others in this thread also have what seems that same statistical background. Like clear as day.

Can things always be improved sure but if your seeing 70 percents and above across multiple plus 500 votes take a minute and think what’s going on. You would have to believe some serious ballot stuffing if you will is going on, the pollster themself is fudging number etc etc. Some real effort of manipulation. That isn’t the case with folks like skinnycheeks.

@merpins already hit on what I was going to touch on regarding collapsible datasets from questions.

I don't have a statistics background when it comes to my line of work; I'm an animator. But I like statistics, and if my college had a program for it, I would have minored in it when I was in college. I just find statistical analysis fun, but also something important to know since you can get a feel of whether something you're looking at is significant or not.

well if im being frank id question how many ppl trying to say they are experts in it (or really well versed) , really are or not....its the internet , people will claim anything to sound right more often than not. when all is said and done the negativity for this update is so palpable you dont need to be an expert in statistics to know how much it is not wanted.

granted i was dissappointed with the main feature of high isle being a card game that quite frankly puts me to sleep XD , would have preferred either a new race (hello maomer! yes blue skinned altmer....can just give them something to distinquish them like gills or something like bosmer can get those horns XD , and to be frank weve got imperials who essentially are already identical to bretons anyway.....so not a new thing to do as it stands).....or another class , druid being a pretty obvious one at this point .....though id be curious to see a type of illusion school of magic based class (illusionist?). so overall for the direction the games going since high isle was not exactly......favorable in my eyes....this update for me as a casual who does not do trials and such was just the final nail in the coffin at this point , especially when it feels like the devs do not seem to listen to the massive amount of negative feedback theyve gotten over this.

DrSlaughtr

shadyjane62 wrote: »

ninjagank wrote: »

shadyjane62 wrote: »

ninjagank wrote: »

To put it bluntly, I don't believe most players will leave for good over this update. Maybe they'll do it for a little bit out of stubbornness but eventually they'll come back and realize not much has changed. A lot of this stuff is overblown. Not saying there aren't valid issues. I have mine. But I've seen all this before and usually it doesn't really end up being the climactic event people predict.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

You are wrong. I was there for Galaxies. This feels like that.

That game lasted right up to the launce of it's replacement. Funny there was a similar uproar with that game a few years ago. Seems like it's doing fine.

Point is, we will see.

Don't know about replacement. Never went back and vowed never to play one of their games again.

Competely different studios. Competely different games. It's probably against tos to talk directly about them but if you want any info on the one you can currently play hit me up.

olsborg

There are things i dont like about this patch, yes, but mostly I like it. DOT builds have been too strong for too long, specially in duels. Magdks and Magplars has been the meta for too long and are incredibly easy to play effectively, its just nobrainer classes imo. Good thing they were nerfed pretty well now.

MidniteOwl1913

olsborg wrote: »

There are things i dont like about this patch, yes, but mostly I like it. DOT builds have been too strong for too long, specially in duels. Magdks and Magplars has been the meta for too long and are incredibly easy to play effectively, its just nobrainer classes imo. Good thing they were nerfed pretty well now.

ANd all those people are going to pretty upset about it when they discover that they have been nerfed to oblivion.

shadyjane62

ninjagank wrote: »

The problem with these polls and promoting them with any sort of scientific finding, is that people who have not even downloaded the pts let alone logged in and played are voting. I certainly can understand that concerns of the community but it's disingenuous to pretend like someone who is just mad about jabs animation is being objective and constructive.

I am mad about the animation change on jabs. So mad I am now signed up to two other games. I have 227 days left on wasted year sub.

I don't care if you think I'm being non constructive and non objective.

To me the thing that makes the game worth playing is being destroyed. I will not use that new animation and what is left for me if when I look at that pool noodle and feel the despair I feel now. I am old. I have played games for 40 years. And I will go on playing, just not here.

shinry

A lot of people didn't know this was coming. And now that it is here they are becoming just as flummoxed and disappointed as those of us that kept up the PTS changes.

Suna_Ye_Sunnabe

If only there were an option that said "all up35 changes were bad". I'd pick that one.

MorganaBlue

2017 - 2022 ESO RIP

I don't even have something more appealing to play. I just know I don't want to play ESO anymore, nor will I ever play another game from Zenimax.

BalticBlues

The sad truth is: ZOS is ruining their own successful game.
After U35, I do not know any player who is HAPPY with ESO anymore.
After 7 successful years, in year 8 the game self-destructs with WILD CHANGES.

ESO players feel like passengers in a derailing train.