ESO Population Declining @ SteamCharts

Mancombe_Nosehair

bluebird wrote: »

SkerKro wrote: »

bluebird wrote: »

To all the people arguing about Steam: it doesn't matter, and doesn't take away from OP's point.

If he was making the case that the game's population is under 20k (based on the Steam figures only) then yes that would obviously be a mistake because Steam doesn't reflect all people playing on the other platforms.

But when talking about trends, you'd have to make the rather unlikely case that Steam users are a magical and mysterious type of player who behave differently from everyone else (e.g.if you really think that Xbox and the ESO Launcher have a different playerbase that still maintains as high numbers as they did in June and aren't affected by the player dropoff like Steam is).

So no, unless proven otherwise that would indicate that the different platforms have mysteriously different behaviors that aren't affected by the same trends, seeing the stats for Steam should be representative enough of the game's popularity. And yes the game's popularity is decreasing. Now, it remains to be seen whether it will pick up again when the next DLC drops - seeing the dramatic nerfs of Dragolhold that will be interesting to see - but for now yes the game pretty much already lost as many players as it gained during the Chapter's successful release (was 13k average before the Chapter, 17k during the Chapter, and now back to 12k average). If you had data from other platforms, they would likely tell the same story.

Despite the OP's willingness to leave out common information that effects both NA and EU. Like that the months with the lower population readings are during high travel, vacation and holiday peek times. While the higher months are often known to not have any substantial break time longer then a few days or a week or two and common for standard school and business months (depending on states and counties / countries) not including other real world situations that may arise that can effect the chart at any given moment

If Beth/ZoS claim is correct on 13mil + active accounts/Players across all platforms, the steam chart is a fraction of what is really happening / good or bad and still remains a non issue and the OP's point is absolutely and will remain moot without having a combined total of numbers across all platforms for the past 6 months and 5 years to dictate if a trend is really happening or not.

ESO does not have 13mill acive accounts. It baffles me that some people could even believe that. That is 13 millions accounts, across all platforms, that have been ever created in the past 5 years in total. Not active accounts. So it includes free accounts that logged in for one day when the game was free to try, but never logged back. It includes people who tried the game at launch but deleted it immediately and haven't been back in 5 years. It includes bots and secondary accounts for people who started on PS but moved to PC or just made another account. It is not active players. So please @SkerKro don't cite the '13 million active players/accounts' statistic because it was never about acitve players/accounts.

And regarding your high travel and vacation times, it really makes no difference. In June 2018 average Steam player count increased by 4k. In July it fell by 2k and in August it went up again by 1k. In 2019 it has been falling since May with no increase. Or are you suggesting that in 2019 way more people went on vacation than in 2018 so that's the reason more people stopped playing? In September 2018, ESO still had 2k more average Steam users than it did before the Chapter launched (12k in Sept vs 10k in May with a June peak of 15k) while in 2019 we already lost way more people (we're already back to 12k after a 17k May).

Also, if you look at the trends, the post-Elsweyr drop over the past three months was a far greater decrease in player engagement than any other drop ESO had since 2016! This year dropped by 32% since May, while others summer declines are around 18-26%.

Zos has been quoted as saying that the 13m accounts do not include free accounts. You are quite right about them not all being active accounts though.

furiouslog

This is not a zombie post.

I just wanted to come in and update this thread, since the "population decline" apparently turned around during the past couple of months. Therefore, the hypothesis stipulated by the OP is apparently proven to be wrong. Looking at history, of course, the holiday bump was entirely predictable, which is the point - the bumps and valleys you observe are explainable by a combination of new content, promotions, and seasonal factors. Once you account for those factors, long term, the population is trending upwards.

https://steamcharts.com/app/306130#1y

Kel

furiouslog wrote: »

This is not a zombie post.

I just wanted to come in and update this thread, since the "population decline" apparently turned around during the past couple of months. Therefore, the hypothesis stipulated by the OP is apparently proven to be wrong. Looking at history, of course, the holiday bump was entirely predictable, which is the point - the bumps and valleys you observe are explainable by a combination of new content, promotions, and seasonal factors. Once you account for those factors, long term, the population is trending upwards.

https://steamcharts.com/app/306130#1y

This is my problem with these posts in general.

When the numbers are trending down, and that's pointed out, players rush to say that doesn't matter..there's no context...yadda yadda yadda...

When its trending upwards, however, it's celebrated and acknowledged how well and flourishing the game is doing, and it's proving how well off the game is.

You can't have your cake and eat it too people.
If you're going to point out how downward spirals mean nothing, how can you then point to bumps in numbers and give it meaning?

People come, people go...welcome to MMO's.

FierceSam

Jaraal wrote: »

FierceSam wrote: »

Kingslayer513 wrote: »

There's so much misinformation in this thread

First things first, yes obviously steam is a subset (of a subset) of the playerbase. But it is still a representative sample

No it isn’t. It is, in fact, the exact opposite. It’s a self-selecting set of people who have chosen to use Steam to purchase and play games.

As such the information it reveals is statistically irrelevant and cannot be used to extrapolate larger trends.

With this logic, then the other side is a self-selecting set of people who have chosen to use the Zenimax launcher. Maybe they're dropping out at a larger rate than Steam users. So yes, with this reasoning, Steam users may be under representing the actual player loss.

What makes Steam users non-representative of the player base as a whole? Are they of lower IQ? Do they have attention deficit disorders that cause them to jump from game to game? Millions of people have bought the game through Steam, but some are claiming because their launcher has a little Steam logo in the corner that their experience is irrelevant.

Lol!

Steam users are not a consistent % of ESO population, hence any figures that only sample Steam users will only tell us about Steam users rather than the ESO population as a whole.

So someone who leaves Steam, but continues to play ESO, will be incorrectly registered as a loss. Someone who starts playing ESO without Steam will never be recognised at all. So these figures are fundamentally valueless.

Personally, I can’t see why anyone would use Steam to access ESO in the first place.

Lord-Otto

What? Having 5k fewer actives than half a year ago is now a success? Ooo-kayyy.
I can tell you this, without some irrelevant sheets and statistics:
My friends left. Hardcore PvPers have been gone for months. Those that are still around play significantly less and are fatigued by how boring everything has become. I don't need fancy numbers to tell me what my people, the grizzled veterans I've spent so much time with, are already telling me.
This game has become stale. It's just cats, nerfs and Indriks now. It desperately needs fresh air.

NinchiTV

Lord-Otto wrote: »

What? Having 5k fewer actives than half a year ago is now a success? Ooo-kayyy.
I can tell you this, without some irrelevant sheets and statistics:
My friends left. Hardcore PvPers have been gone for months. Those that are still around play significantly less and are fatigued by how boring everything has become. I don't need fancy numbers to tell me what my people, the grizzled veterans I've spent so much time with, are already telling me.
This game has become stale. It's just cats, nerfs and Indriks now. It desperately needs fresh air.

Signed in just to quote for win. I plan on coming back when I have to reinstall the game, and that will make or break for sure.

Darkstorne

furiouslog wrote: »

This is not a zombie post.

I just wanted to come in and update this thread, since the "population decline" apparently turned around during the past couple of months. Therefore, the hypothesis stipulated by the OP is apparently proven to be wrong. Looking at history, of course, the holiday bump was entirely predictable, which is the point - the bumps and valleys you observe are explainable by a combination of new content, promotions, and seasonal factors. Once you account for those factors, long term, the population is trending upwards.

https://steamcharts.com/app/306130#1y

Yeah that graph shows the trend well, especially when you expand it to show the game’s entire history. Overall trend is definitely up, with small bumps during the Q4 updates to the game (Dragonhold, Murkmire) and large bumps during the Q2 expansions (Elsweyr, Summerset)

Dragonhold’s Q4 has attracted higher player counts than Murkmire’s last year.
Elsweyr in Q2 was not only higher than Summserset, but the highest player count the game has ever seen.

If the trend continues, we’ll see player numbers drop again until Skyrim hype starts fully building, and then probably see Skyrim’s release boast another all time record high playercount of 35k+.

In other words, the game is very healthy, even when you factor in the lulls between Q2 and Q4 content releases when many players check out other games.

Nemesis7884

well its the end of a content cycle and a couple months before the next one starts...of course players are down...i barely login right now but will be back with the release of skyrim and so will many others...

idk

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

well its the end of a content cycle and a couple months before the next one starts...of course players are down...i barely login right now but will be back with the release of skyrim and so will many others...

This is old news since the last two months had an increase of players over the same months last year. While the brief three months cannot be written off just yet Matt Firor is likely sleeping a little sounder with the metics of the last two months and the final quarter of 2019 showing only a modest decline.

Granted, Steam Charts do not tell the entire picture but it is the only heart beat for the game we have and it is not inherently biased.

Elsonso

First, thanks for the update, new-OP.

Lord-Otto wrote: »

What? Having 5k fewer actives than half a year ago is now a success? Ooo-kayyy.

Yeah. Just eyeballing it, 2019 looks like it was the best year for ESO, yet. At least, for Steam players.

2019 was the best December for ESO since launch. Half a year ago, ESO had the best two months ever. And while the December 2019 player numbers are not higher than the peak month in 2018, they are higher than the peak month in 2017.

Kel wrote: »

This is my problem with these posts in general.

When the numbers are trending down, and that's pointed out, players rush to say that doesn't matter..there's no context...yadda yadda yadda...

When its trending upwards, however, it's celebrated and acknowledged how well and flourishing the game is doing, and it's proving how well off the game is.

You can't have your cake and eat it too people.
If you're going to point out how downward spirals mean nothing, how can you then point to bumps in numbers and give it meaning?

People come, people go...welcome to MMO's.

This is a product support forum for a game that is currently popular, still wins end-of-year editorial awards, releases updates every quarter and patches almost every week, and has been consistently attracting new players. For a game in that profile, yes, you are going to see that behavior on the product's forum.

Also, it is inaccurate to refer to a forum, which is not an individual, and treat them like an individual.

Na0cho

It’s declined the last few months most likely due to the release of classic WoW. I personally stopped playing for a while right when elsweyr dropped but am back now. I can tell you that eso is more populated than any other mmo right now so this doomsaying thing because they made some changes you don’t like is not facts.

Here’s a fact: I saw some of the changes and came back and even bought 2 homies the game while it was on sale.

Ri_Khan

Yea so it turns out when the game goes on sale for $10 twice a year (Summer/Winter sales) the population gets a bump. Surprise, surprise!

OsManiaC

I still insist on everyone to trust steam charts whether it is good or bad

never forget 100% of pc skyrim owners are steam ,huge potential of steam guys will buy base game+ dlc from there

Joinovikova

OsManiaC wrote: »

I still insist on everyone to trust steam charts whether it is good or bad

never forget 100% of pc skyrim owners are steam ,huge potential of steam guys will buy base game+ dlc from there

Steam is enough statistical sample to estimate behavoir of all data. So if steam player base declined by 50% Whole eso population also decline

Elsonso

OsManiaC wrote: »

I still insist on everyone to trust steam charts whether it is good or bad

never forget 100% of pc skyrim owners are steam ,huge potential of steam guys will buy base game+ dlc from there

It also sounds like ZOS is planning to drop a well right in the middle of the Skyrim players next year, too.

People are treating the Steam numbers like they represent the whole game. This is extrapolating the Steam numbers well beyond what they represent. They represent Steam players, which is a subset of the PC population.

You mention "100% of pc skyrim owners are steam", but these players probably represent the minority of Skyrim players, when compared to consoles. In general, console sales apparently eclipse PC and Steam sales.

The main point of not trusting the Steam numbers is that they have no bearing on consoles. I do not believe that they can even be used to accurately estimate the console numbers or trends. Throughout the year, consoles have different competing games, on different schedules, and ESO plays differently on the consoles. Population comes and goes based upon these factors, so a new console game launch may have player numbers down, even while Steam is showing a surge of players. Meanwhile, a game like WoW Classic comes out, drawing PC players, but maybe not console players. Steam could show a dip where consoles are surging.

Now, maybe Steam numbers track with the general population across all platforms and geographies. Only ZOS would know that. It would not be a guess, or an assumption, like what we have in the forum, but a fact obtained by studying all the numbers coming from all the platforms and geographies.

The Steam numbers are great for conversation, and that is pretty much what they are useful for here.

Sylvermynx

I'm on PC and not a steam player.... started out that way, but did NOT buy the game on steam, and never actually could get logged in to PLAY through steam.

So nope, not 100%.... I have several IRL friends who play on PC, also not on steam, nor bought through steam.

Of course, all of us who play Skyrim are steam - we have no choice, which I personally dislike intensely. But no choice is no choice if we want to continue to play Skyrim....

mikemacon

Biased post is biased.

mayasunrising

I judge with my own peepers, not with Steam's metrics. What i see is HUGE battles in Cyro (I think it's funny how some say people are leaving in droves, yet the same people complain about lag during huge battles. Like what? LOL), and recent expansion and DLC zones - like Summerset - that are still hoppin' well after release.

I'm personally not logged into the game a lot right now because I got Skyrim for Christmas and I'm playing through that. But I will definitely be logged in for events and the new Expansion/DLCs.

Jdray

idk it feels very crowded if you ask me

furiouslog

Kel wrote: »

furiouslog wrote: »

This is not a zombie post.

I just wanted to come in and update this thread, since the "population decline" apparently turned around during the past couple of months. Therefore, the hypothesis stipulated by the OP is apparently proven to be wrong. Looking at history, of course, the holiday bump was entirely predictable, which is the point - the bumps and valleys you observe are explainable by a combination of new content, promotions, and seasonal factors. Once you account for those factors, long term, the population is trending upwards.

https://steamcharts.com/app/306130#1y

This is my problem with these posts in general.

When the numbers are trending down, and that's pointed out, players rush to say that doesn't matter..there's no context...yadda yadda yadda...

When its trending upwards, however, it's celebrated and acknowledged how well and flourishing the game is doing, and it's proving how well off the game is.

You can't have your cake and eat it too people.
If you're going to point out how downward spirals mean nothing, how can you then point to bumps in numbers and give it meaning?

People come, people go...welcome to MMO's.

With respect, you're missing the point, which is that when you control for "spirals" and "bumps" - in other words remove seasonality, content, and promotional effects - there is an upwards trend. There are flaws and limitations in the analysis, but without having access to other details, it's pretty decent as an overall picture.

I'm not saying that the November/December bump up itself shows health, I'm saying that when you factor in that there is usually a bump during this time period anyway, and given that there is a measurable lull post-release of new content, when statistically controlling for those factors the number of players is higher than expected - it's a bigger bump than historical norms. That translates into real, normalized population growth. I'm not "having my cake and eating it too", which honestly is not really the best metaphor for the logical fallacy you are attempting to ascribe to my interpretation of these data.

JJBoomer

do remember that this only accounts for steam players only. and thus is not representative of the overall health of the game. but i guess if you like feeling anxious and depressed, then i guess go ahead and prepare for the game to shutdown any second now?

xenowarrior92eb17_ESO

im curious...when is this tread going to get shut down? like seriously 1st of all STEAM doesnt matter...2nd...yes those who play this game directly from ZoS launcher...we do exist.

Anotherone773

FierceSam wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

FierceSam wrote: »

Kingslayer513 wrote: »

There's so much misinformation in this thread

First things first, yes obviously steam is a subset (of a subset) of the playerbase. But it is still a representative sample

No it isn’t. It is, in fact, the exact opposite. It’s a self-selecting set of people who have chosen to use Steam to purchase and play games.

As such the information it reveals is statistically irrelevant and cannot be used to extrapolate larger trends.

With this logic, then the other side is a self-selecting set of people who have chosen to use the Zenimax launcher. Maybe they're dropping out at a larger rate than Steam users. So yes, with this reasoning, Steam users may be under representing the actual player loss.

What makes Steam users non-representative of the player base as a whole? Are they of lower IQ? Do they have attention deficit disorders that cause them to jump from game to game? Millions of people have bought the game through Steam, but some are claiming because their launcher has a little Steam logo in the corner that their experience is irrelevant.

Lol!

Steam users are not a consistent % of ESO population, hence any figures that only sample Steam users will only tell us about Steam users rather than the ESO population as a whole.

So someone who leaves Steam, but continues to play ESO, will be incorrectly registered as a loss. Someone who starts playing ESO without Steam will never be recognised at all. So these figures are fundamentally valueless.

Personally, I can’t see why anyone would use Steam to access ESO in the first place.

Steam is awesome for game library management. I have dozens of games on Steam and have been using it over a decade. ESO is the only game i have EVER had an issue with on Steam. It is also the only game that i own on steam that insist on using its own launcher and updater. You dont need to be a Rhodes Scholar to figure out where the problem lies.

idk

Ri_Khan wrote: »

Yea so it turns out when the game goes on sale for $10 twice a year (Summer/Winter sales) the population gets a bump. Surprise, surprise!

Business analysis focuses comparing one month to the same month the previous year to account for regular sales periods and seasonal fluctuations.

If you look at the Steam Charts every month has an increase over the same month the previous year except for three months this year. However, it seems that brined downturn has come to an end as November and December show the trend has turned positive once again. Over all that is an amazing run.

The downturn coincided with the release of WoW classic so it seems more likely that some WoW converts played ESO less while checking out what Blizzard released but are coming back.

idk

xenowarrior92eb17_ESO wrote: »

im curious...when is this tread going to get shut down? like seriously 1st of all STEAM doesnt matter...2nd...yes those who play this game directly from ZoS launcher...we do exist.

No one is suggesting PC/Mac is only played through Steam. Steam Charts do provide some insight and are not inherently biased. It is a decent survey and read my post above this to see that the population is no longer in decline. We merely experienced a very brief dip from players temporarily distracted by WoW Classic release.

Alinhbo_Tyaka

One impression I get from these types of threads is it always appears that many of the posters are actually cheering for a decrease in players. To me if that is what they are wishing for the game it is better off without them.

Rukia541

Are we really using steam to determine population decline in an MMO..

That is probably not even 1/10th the population, ESO is so spread out its not even funny.

If you want accurate statistics then ZoS would have to release their data.

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

One impression I get from these types of threads is it always appears that many of the posters are actually cheering for a decrease in players. To me if that is what they are wishing for the game it is better off without them.

And a lot of the posts are in fact, its just jaded players that would rather cry on a forum than leave a GAME that they apparently hate. Constructive criticism is fine but I see this same crap in WoW forums, GW2 forums, etc.

You know what I did when my MMO went to crap.. I quit playing it, and moved to ESO. Forums have a lot of disgruntled players that will repeat their vitriol ad nauseam in the hopes that in this vast echo chamber someone will agree and somehow that means they've won.

I've seen it so many times I just find it sad, like they can't quit an addiction rather than something that is supposed to be casual entertainment not a full-time life replacement.

Jaxious79

Well welcome to the world of online multiplayer games. You see every game ever released or to be released goes
and will go through ups and downs in population. This is normal and throughout history people just like you have tried to take this normal trend and turn it into DOOM AND GLOOM THE GAME IS DYING. My recommendation to you is really try hard next time and avoid going down this route, it's not a very good look.

Elsonso

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

One impression I get from these types of threads is it always appears that many of the posters are actually cheering for a decrease in players. To me if that is what they are wishing for the game it is better off without them.

I would not go so far to say that "cheering" is the intent. I think a number of people think that ZOS is not paying attention, or not doing enough to fix things, and the insistence that there is a problem could be interpreted as "cheering". It is venting, and for some people it is therapeutic. For others, it is a source of distress to read about it.

IronWooshu

Lord_Eomer wrote: »

ZOS is again on a wrong track, nerfing everything and letting players leave ESO.

Lack of good contents are also to blame, players are asking for new Solo Arena or Duo but Q4 DLC becomes such a disappointment.

I have also taken a break from ESO, will get back once ZOS start putting things back on track.



Source: https://steamcharts.com/app/306130

Does steam track Sony and Microsoft users or those who bought the game from another source?

I already know the answer.