What is actual drop rate of Maelstrom Inferno Staff?

Rerum

Hello there.

Just for chill a bit. I've done about 30 runs in vMA last week(honestly on last week i'm only started doing vMA cause i'm playing ~3 months) and wtf s going on...i've got every kind of weapons(most of them 3-4 times) and 0 inferno staffs. Few times i've had 3 restoration staffs in a row, 2 bows in a row, 2 battleaxes in a row...This is just makes me mad. The probability of this is way higher than getting inferno staff? I know that this is game, not the end of the world and etc. But people doing vMA for 2 things - bow/inferno(sometimes lightning) and leaderboards. And farm needed staff such a pain. I've reached more or less comfortable point when i'm doing vMA in ~52 minutes, just mindless 52 minutes, but in the end it's always dissapointment cause of flawless rng that all devs loves as their children. I'm not agains rng in loot when you have up to 12 people who can get what you need and give away or trade it(in most disgusting cases), but not in solo content which is not the fastest and easiest for a lot of people. Why just not did a exchange, in example, 50 weapons on 1 that you needed. Is devs really think that farm vMA half of year or more is fun?

Sorry for my english. And thanks for reading. Mb someone can give an answer on the question in the title.

Beardimus

Mate, 30 runs is nothing.

Imagine the days before transmute, and when Sharpened was the only trait worth using.....

Just keep at it. Focus on your score etc and let the weapon come to you.

Rerum

Beardimus wrote: »

Mate, 30 runs is nothing.

Imagine the days before transmute, and when Sharpened was the only trait worth using.....

Just keep at it. Focus on your score etc and let the weapon come to you.

Ye, i've read about times before transmute xD And this topic mostly just for chill and discuss. I'll continue anyway, have 508k best score atm, but i don't want to sacrifice stability for leaderboard place. I know that there will be a mail with rewards, but i don't think that this is worth. Anyway this rng is ridiculous. I know that i'll don't get feeling of satisfaction when i finally get this staff. Because this awful system and rng that gives only frustration feeling.

John_Falstaff

I do not think that the drop rates are skewed in any way; it's just randomness. And yes, randomness is a ridiculous thing; I've been farming months for my first bow drop, and by the time it dropped, I had all other sets several times over and could have made a garden fence out of staves. Inferno was one of the first to drop. And then there's someone I know who cleared vMA for the first time, got bow right away and forgot about the arena until recently.

kylewwefan

Same boat. I’ve been getting lots of DW, S/B, Resto, Ice Staff. Haven’t had an inferno or lightning in some time.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

There is 1/6 chance to get a destro then a 1/3 chance that that destro is a fire staff, so the is a ~5% chance that you will get a fire staff.

I stopped running vMA, other then when it is double drops, when I realized that there was around the same chance to get what I wanted as the failure rate on my girlfriends birth control. Though this was before trait changing though, it was something like a .6% chance to get a Sharpened fire staff.

Aeslief

Seems completely random - in about 10 or so runs I’ve completed, i recall that I’ve gotten 2 inferno, 2 bows, 2 dagger sets, 2 resto staves, and a one hander.

Rerum

Aeslief wrote: »

Seems completely random - in about 10 or so runs I’ve completed, i recall that I’ve gotten 2 inferno, 2 bows, 2 dagger sets, 2 resto staves, and a one hander.

Oh you lucky....

p00tx

It's totally random. I got an inferno on my first clear of vMA, but I've farmed the crap out of vDSA and have yet to see the resto that I originally went in for. Instead, I have 34984765576 bows, which is apparently what everyone else wants. It can be crazy making.

My buddy gets nothing but Sword and Board, in both instances, every single time. It's weird and kinda terrible at the same time.

pelle412

p00tx wrote: »

Instead, I have 34984765576 bows

That's 228 vDSA runs per second since launch. Admire that dedication!

p00tx

pelle412 wrote: »

p00tx wrote: »

Instead, I have 34984765576 bows

That's 228 vDSA runs per second since launch. Admire that dedication!

Right? I call it my "hyperbolic progression".

SirAndy

Tokens, we need vMA tokens ...

Zalathorm

6th run for me.
4th run was my bow for my stamblade

Lucky me

MaxJrFTW

Very low. Took me at 30-40 runs to get it. If you count the weekly rewards, i had 60 or so chances to get it before the 1st drop.

Brrrofski

100+ runs and no bow.

Done with that content. Just gonna run magica builds in pve.

Neoealth

SirAndy wrote: »

Tokens, we need vMA tokens ...

So true.

Mintaka5

Brrrofski wrote: »

100+ runs and no bow.

Done with that content. Just gonna run magica builds in pve.

Same. I'm no longer putting myself through endless grinds at the mercy of some false application "randomness". It's not just vMA it's all the content in this game, that makes us grind longer to keep us playing the game forever.

I would even settle for an increase in chance the more we run something. Pure randomness is a fool's game.

paulychan

1 clear and 1 inferno here.
RNG is a cruel mistress.

Jaimeh

Rerum wrote: »

Hello there.

Just for chill a bit. I've done about 30 runs in vMA last week(honestly on last week i'm only started doing vMA cause i'm playing ~3 months) and wtf s going on...i've got every kind of weapons(most of them 3-4 times) and 0 inferno staffs. Few times i've had 3 restoration staffs in a row, 2 bows in a row, 2 battleaxes in a row...This is just makes me mad. The probability of this is way higher than getting inferno staff? I know that this is game, not the end of the world and etc. But people doing vMA for 2 things - bow/inferno(sometimes lightning) and leaderboards. And farm needed staff such a pain. I've reached more or less comfortable point when i'm doing vMA in ~52 minutes, just mindless 52 minutes, but in the end it's always dissapointment cause of flawless rng that all devs loves as their children. I'm not agains rng in loot when you have up to 12 people who can get what you need and give away or trade it(in most disgusting cases), but not in solo content which is not the fastest and easiest for a lot of people. Why just not did a exchange, in example, 50 weapons on 1 that you needed. Is devs really think that farm vMA half of year or more is fun?

Sorry for my english. And thanks for reading. Mb someone can give an answer on the question in the title.

It's just RNG, you can't have a definite say on drop rate--for some it's great, for some not, there's the urban myths of stamina toons more likely to get staves and vice versa, etc. What can help a little is to clear it if you can on wardens and DKs, because you are pretty much guaranteed a leaderboard position, so that you get an extra chance at the weapon from the weekly rewards.

Neoealth

Completed my 4th vMA today. I got the inferno staff. I wanted the lightning staff though. Question. Would a inferno staff be viable on a altmer pet sorc? Probably not ideal right? What sort of class would best suit the inferno staff?

FinrodMacBeorn

I've been lucky to get the lightning staff (but not yet the inferno), using it in the following build

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/458855/50k-dps-infinite-sustain-pts-pet-sorc

It uses a fire enchant similar to Alcast's pet sorcerer build - in particular for proccing Ilambris, if you use it to keep your distance. It should not make too much difference if you replace the maelstrom lightning with an inferno staff and correspondingly the fire enchant with a shock enchant - at least until you get the lightning staff.

In any case, it will be a considerable damage boost for a pet sorc.

SirAndy

Mintaka5 wrote: »

Pure randomness is a fool's game.

Actually, pure randomness would be a welcome change!

The problem with these loot drops in ESO is that they are *not* purely (pseudo) random, they are WEIGHTED random and the odds are firmly stacked against you.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

SirAndy wrote: »

Mintaka5 wrote: »

Pure randomness is a fool's game.

Actually, pure randomness would be a welcome change!

The problem with these loot drops in ESO is that they are *not* purely (pseudo) random, they are WEIGHTED random and the odds are firmly stacked against you.

evidence for your assertion there bub?

SirAndy

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

evidence for your assertion there bub?

Bub? I ain't nobody's bub ...


As for my "assertion", let's just say i know a thing or three about game development besides posting on internet forums.

I also happen to know a few things about the inner workings of the ESO executable as well as the data protocols used to transmit data between the client and server (and to some extend the server implementation itself).

So yeah, there's that ...

Vapirko

That’s the *** that is RNG. I got all the staves and bow and daggers inside of 20 runs. BSW inferno staff though? Can’t find one to save my life and I’ve gotren the lighting, ice staff and a shield in one run. But my buddy has a few sitting in his bank he doesn’t care about. I think ZOS should have implemented some kind of token exchange system, it could have been a slow grind still but at least you’d get it at some point where as I’ve kind of just given up on the BSW inferno and that’s not fun. Or have some very rare/costly way of unlocking gear to sell or give away. I get the need for some grind but there’s a line between getting people to play the game more and just having them give up because who wants to waste that much time on something you’ll never get?

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

SirAndy wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

evidence for your assertion there bub?

Bub? I ain't nobody's bub ...


As for my "assertion", let's just say i know a thing or three about game development besides posting on internet forums.

I also happen to know a few things about the inner workings of the ESO executable as well as the data protocols used to transmit data between the client and server (and to some extend the server implementation itself).

So yeah, there's that ...

So no actual evidence, got it..

eso_lytw8

out of 116 runs I got 10 inferno staffs which is about 9%, but that includes some leader board and double drops so I don't have an exact percent on just single chest drops/run.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/466103/vma-drops#latest

On weighted drops...we do know that weighted drop system is used in the game, lots of examples of "rare" drops meaning some items have a lower weighted chance to drop. We assume, but do not know if equal weighting is used for VMA. When people say that's "RNG" I think this is referring to an assumed equal probability system and you just have bad luck.

On RNG, this stands for Random Number Generator which is interesting because the sequence of numbers produced by an RNG is anything but random it has random like patterns but it is actually a generator sequence of numbers based on an algorithm from a starting seed. Eventually these sequences repeat themselves. This assumes RNG theory hasn't changed in recent past.

Each one of us may have different seeds thusly creating our own set of random numbers and our sequence may have far fewer numbers (or even no numbers) that match to a low weighted item...meaning it is possible that you may not be able to get a drop when someone else may see a lot. This would obviously not be intended by developers but would be extremely hard to diagnose. Why? because the natural answer is ...that's just RNG man... some people have good luck and some people have bad luck".... or it can be some people have better random number sequences for certain low drop items and others have bad ones, implying your chance is not equal and not the same as everyone else's. I am not saying this is the case, but I it is possible. One way to test this would be to take the probability of an event not happening after say 100 tries. If you get 1 in a billion and yet this is what happened to you have to wonder if things are as equally random as we think.

I have a theory that individual characters may have specific seeds producing their own set of RNG's. If you have trouble getting a drop try using another character. Again this is just pure speculation. Or as people say it could just be RNG man.

Lytw8

SirAndy

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

evidence for your assertion there bub?

Bub? I ain't nobody's bub ...

As for my "assertion", let's just say i know a thing or three about game development besides posting on internet forums.
I also happen to know a few things about the inner workings of the ESO executable as well as the data protocols used to transmit data between the client and server (and to some extend the server implementation itself).
So yeah, there's that ...

So no actual evidence, got it..

Your lack of knowledge is not the same as absence of evidence.
There's plenty of evidence for those of us who know how and where to look.
In fact, if you had made any sort of effort, you can actually find plenty of evidence right here on these forums.

Looks like we can add lazy to uninformed ...

zaria

SirAndy wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

evidence for your assertion there bub?

Bub? I ain't nobody's bub ...


As for my "assertion", let's just say i know a thing or three about game development besides posting on internet forums.

I also happen to know a few things about the inner workings of the ESO executable as well as the data protocols used to transmit data between the client and server (and to some extend the server implementation itself).

So yeah, there's that ...

Data protocol for communication between client and server does not affect drops.
But yes I assume the loot table is often weighted, just look at loot from chests or other places.

Something like the crown crate logger for other types of drops would be nice.
Edit some other posted from 160 drops
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/466103/vma-drops#latest

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

SirAndy wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

evidence for your assertion there bub?

Bub? I ain't nobody's bub ...

As for my "assertion", let's just say i know a thing or three about game development besides posting on internet forums.
I also happen to know a few things about the inner workings of the ESO executable as well as the data protocols used to transmit data between the client and server (and to some extend the server implementation itself).
So yeah, there's that ...

So no actual evidence, got it..

Your lack of knowledge is not the same as absence of evidence.
There's plenty of evidence for those of us who know how and where to look.
In fact, if you had made any sort of effort, you can actually find plenty of evidence right here on these forums.

Looks like we can add lazy to uninformed ...

the absence of evidence is the absence of evidence.

nice bait/insults too with the bold, really makes you look like you know what you are talking about. and this whole comment chain belongs on r/iamverysmart

zaria wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

evidence for your assertion there bub?

Bub? I ain't nobody's bub ...


As for my "assertion", let's just say i know a thing or three about game development besides posting on internet forums.

I also happen to know a few things about the inner workings of the ESO executable as well as the data protocols used to transmit data between the client and server (and to some extend the server implementation itself).

So yeah, there's that ...

Data protocol for communication between client and server does not affect drops.
But yes I assume the loot table is often weighted, just look at loot from chests or other places.

Something like the crown crate logger for other types of drops would be nice.
Edit some other posted from 160 drops
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/466103/vma-drops#latest

160 drops is almost nothing considering the fact it is 1 in 6 chance to get any of the weapon type and the fact that dual wield drops 2 at a time really skews the results. and they did not differentiate between the s/b one handed weapons and the dual wield weapons, so very flawed reporting.

SirAndy

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

nice bait/insults too with the bold, really makes you look like you know what you are talking about. and this whole comment chain belongs on r/iamverysmart

Might want to look up the meaning of "bub" before you get butthurt about being called lazy (rightfully so i might add).
Again, your ignorance is really just about you and has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

At this point i'm not even sure you understand what "weighted RNG" actually means.