Master Writ Drop Rate

Onigar

I along with others in one of my guilds we do daily writs on multiple max level characters.

For me its 8 chars, another does up to 14 chars while other ppl do on less chars.

What has been noticed by us as a group as more full Motiv knowledge is gained is banded improvement in Master Writ drops.

Particurlary I am referring to the Master Writs for Clothing, Blacksmithing and Woodworking.

The banding I refer to is where at certain points in the motiv knowledge the drop rate is repeatedly better than before the latest motiv was known and then moving on when more motivs are known the drop rate reduces by a significant amout and stays that way until more motivs are fully learnt.

Now you may think that I am talking on just 1 char but that is not the case and for me, on ALL 8 characters that I use daily for writs here is their current knowledge,

All 8 Chars Max Crafting Level 50 and CP690+
All 8 - Provisioning - All Recipes except for Mythical Ambrosia and the new ones from Clockwork City
All 8 - Alchemy - Full knowledge of all
All 8 - Enchanting - Full Knowledge of all
All 8 - Blacksmithing - 9/9 Research completed
All 8 - Woodworking - 9/9 Research completed
All 8 - Clothing - 9/9 Research completed
Full Motiv Knowledge on each of the 8 chars - 41 Motivs from 45 (not known is Buoyant, Bloodforge, Dreadhorn and Soul Shriven is only known by 2 chars)
I do not count Alliance or Crown Store Styles as these dont count towards Writ drops.

Right now the RNG is repeatedly very poor and has been for me like this for about 5 weeks.

In an attempt to break out of the poor RNG "band" in the last week I put Apostle and Ebonshadow on my 8 characters but this has not appeared to alter the poor RNG.

I was really hoping as more is known that is supposed to improve the RNG that a noticeable improvement would be there.

Does anyone have a similar feeling about lack of RNG improvement or the "banding" I mentioned earlier?

Edit: Added the following, copied from my reply later in this discussion,

What I consider to be a Poor Drop Rate vs a Good Drop Rate

From 8 characters per day,
Poor Drop Rate = 5 to 7 writs received (more normally 5)
Good Drop Rate = 12 to 14 writs received (a similar improvement was noticeable by different ppl at around the same 33 motiv learnt point but then decreased sharply with more motiv knowledge)

This is of course not even across my characters, I have many with no writs but then 1 char gets 2 or 3 writs for example.

Variation is normal with RNG as scatter from a projected trend line which we would expect to be moving in the direction of RNG improvement however it looks like for whatever reason the RNG improvement is not supported by the results.

I do not imagine there is much focus from ZOS available to look at such matters as Master Writs is a bit "old hat" especially as there is always new content to work on but with still so many players stil having an interest in daily writs maybe, just maybe there could be a little time made available for a Dev (and Mathmatician) to investigate.

EDIT - 13 March 2018

After some comments in this and related posts it seemed there was a consensus where not having One of the Motivs Applicable for Master Writs significantly reduced your chances for the drops of Master Writs and if you had Two missing then it was almost like you did not know any Motiv's.

As a software developer and tester the observations of myself and many others make no logical sense but then anyone in this field will know well the phrase (or similar) "It shouldn't do that" or even "It can't do that".

In-Use observation of software behaviour is the best feedback possible. Any testing prior to delivery is fundamentally done to protect the business developing the product.

It would be good if ZOS were to take note of the comments in all the posts on this topic and importantly consider the effort of players to learn all the elements which contribute to an improvement to the Master Writ drop rate.

As I suggested at one time in one of these other posts there may have been a more "clever" coding solution than needed and if so this may be the cause. The solution, at its core, would need a 2 dimensional array storing a Motiv Achieved Flag (1 bit) and a Weighting Factor (128 bit). The reason for the Weighting Factor is to recognise the time/effort/cost for the Achievement. The similar applies to other elements contributing to improved Master Writ drop rate.

My Motiv Achievement - Update for my 8 Daily Writ characters,

All in-game motivs learnt on all 8 characters except,

Soul Shriven 6 chars
Buoyant Armiger 4 chars

Master Writ Drops is not noticeably improved from the numbers reported in the original post text.

Apache_Kid

You have 8 characters with over 40 motif sets learned?

Holy Crap.

I just finished learning every motif in the game on my main character like last week and I do my writs everyday on two characters. The one that knows every motif, and one who knows none. It honestly seems like they both get the same number of mater writs but my character that knows all the motifs gets the bigger ones more often. So I'm not sure what to make of it. All of the RNG in this game is not exact and is weighted by countless other factors that we aren't even privy to.

Onigar

Apache_Kid wrote: »

You have 8 characters with over 40 motif sets learned?

Holy Crap.

Yep, 41 motivs on 8 chars.

Prof_Bawbag

All i know is the drop rate has drastically nosed dived for me. In 4 weeks, I have gotten 12 vouchers (2x 6 writs) on my master crafter and zero on my alts. I do them every day. Not really bothered tbh as there's only junk in the writ store at the moment. ZoS love making this game more of a chore for some bizarre reason. For me personally, my RNG is so bad in recent months there's been zero reward for any sort of farming/grinding so for the last wee while i have put zero effort into it.

If they can't be arsed, I most certainly can't be arsed chasing imaginary rainbows. They've then got the cheek to wonder why so many zones are dead or really under used. At least give us some sort of inventive ffs.

Jimmy

I have a character with every motif in the game learned, exxcept missing 5 pages of Militant Ordinator. Besides that, I have every other motif in the game.

My Master Writ drop rate on that character is worse than my other characters with NO motif knowledge.

So.... I guess I'll see what happens when I get those last few pages of Militant Ordinator and have a 100% complete motif collection. But as of now, the drop rate of master writs, given my motif knowledge, is very disappointing.

Warbow7

Onigar wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

You have 8 characters with over 40 motif sets learned?

Holy Crap.

Yep, 41 motivs on 8 chars.

You sir, get an awesome for the amount of time/gold that must have taken. My main knows all the traits and motifs, but there is no way any of my alts will go through that grind.

IwakuraLain42

Loose/miss one of the styles in the pool (in your case Buoyant) and the drop rate nose dives drastically. And the Alliance styles are in the pool, or at least they are in the requested styles pool.

Verbal_Earthworm

Onigar wrote: »

I along with others in one of my guilds we do daily writs on multiple max level characters.

For me its 8 chars, another does up to 14 chars while other ppl do on less chars.

What has been noticed by us as a group as more full Motiv knowledge is gained is banded improvement in Master Writ drops.

Particurlary I am referring to the Master Writs for Clothing, Blacksmithing and Woodworking.

The banding I refer to is where at certain points in the motiv knowledge the drop rate is repeatedly better than before the latest motiv was known and then moving on when more motivs are known the drop rate reduces by a significant amout and stays that way until more motivs are fully learnt.

Now you may think that I am talking on just 1 char but that is not the case and for me, on ALL 8 characters that I use daily for writs here is their current knowledge,

All 8 Chars Max Crafting Level 50 and CP690+
All 8 - Provisioning - All Recipes except for Mythical Ambrosia and the new ones from Clockwork City
All 8 - Alchemy - Full knowledge of all
All 8 - Enchanting - Full Knowledge of all
All 8 - Blacksmithing - 9/9 Research completed
All 8 - Woodworking - 9/9 Research completed
All 8 - Clothing - 9/9 Research completed
Full Motiv Knowledge on each of the 8 chars - 41 Motivs from 45 (not known is Buoyant, Bloodforge, Dreadhorn and Soul Shriven is only known by 2 chars)
I do not count Alliance or Crown Store Styles as these dont count towards Writ drops.

Right now the RNG is repeatedly very poor and has been for me like this for about 5 weeks.

In an attempt to break out of the poor RNG "band" in the last week I put Apostle and Ebonshadow on my 8 characters but this has not appeared to alter the poor RNG.

I was really hoping as more is known that is supposed to improve the RNG that a noticeable improvement would be there.

Does anyone have a similar feeling about lack of RNG improvement or the "banding" I mentioned earlier?

your efforts are truly awesome and they prove that the master writ rng is truly awful.

i stopped bothering months ago, soul destroying stuff.

I_killed_Vivec

Most stories of RNG that start "I used to get a rate of x, but now I only get y" leave me thinking "I'd consider myself lucky to get y!"

However, when it comes to the relative drop rate between characters that know all the motifs/recipes compared to those who only know a few, my personal experience (I know, statistically insignificant) is that knowledge doesn't make a difference.

My master crafter is level 50 in all the crafts, knows 42 motifs, completed all research, knows most recipes, all the runes, all the alchemy ingredients.

The other character I do master writs on is level 50 in all the crafts but has only the minimum knowledge required to get as far as level 50 - only about 10 motifs, a few recipes, some of the runes, only some of the research... you get the idea.

I have not noticed any difference in drop rate or value of writs between the two characters. And if knowledge really did play a meaningful part in determining drop rates then I would expect to see a difference.

Linaleah

for me at least, it seems like the more motifs I know, the worse the drop rates get. bulk of my writs lately (and its not like I get a lot of them, I just mean when IU get them at all), I've been getting on alts that have no research done and only know basic faction motifs as well as cheap holiday ones

helediron

You would have got better results by adding more crafters than adding motifs. The master writ drop rate increases only slightly when adding more epic motifs. There is no "banding", it's still normal RNG. You have either a draught period, or back to normal after exceptionally good period, or a combination of these.

I have few perfect master crafters and they don't get significantly more than almost perfect crafters. In fact the differences get small after 7 traits and half of epic motifs.

Onigar

IwakuraLain42 wrote: »

Loose/miss one of the styles in the pool (in your case Buoyant) and the drop rate nose dives drastically. And the Alliance styles are in the pool, or at least they are in the requested styles pool.

I understood Alliance styles were not included as adding towards Master Writ drop RNG improvement.

However its a mute point as all are known by my 8 chars.

I note your comment about Buoyant. I have 12 sheets so far, only 102 sheets more needed to complete my 8 chars and I am working on farming those ATM

Nestor

Bottom line, the RNG factor for Writs ebbs and flows. You will have weeks of no Writs, and weeks where you get them quite often.

If your not getting master writs, stop doing crafting writs for a couple of weeks to save mats.

Asardes

I only learn expensive motifs on my main character. The rest make do with the alliance styles, the "rare" styles, Hollowjack and Mercenary as the pages are cheap as dust; I will probably add Celestial as well in the near future as the price for pages is low and keeps decreasing. One char has 9/9 researched in all professions, another 3 have 9/9 woodworker and 7-8 clothier and blacksmith and the other 6 have virtually no trait researched. Yet over about 4 months I got about 5.6K vouchers. For about half of those months I've only done the writs on the first 4, added another 2 in November and another 4 just at the end of December. So probably the bulk of the writs came from the first 4. I haven't had time to measure the impact of the newest ones but certainly the main crafter seems to get gear master writs regularly. Oddly enough one of the older but less knowledgeable ones does get big ones from time to time. But most of the others get small gear writs, and quite a lot of alchemy and enchanting ones - they do have all properties discovered and runes translated as the extra spending is either negligible or refunded (ex. translate Repora, Hakeijo and Kuta together than sell the glyph for a small profit).

The main problem I have know is actually spending the vouchers. Since there isn't anything worth buying with them - I have access to stations in guild halls - I will keep them in bank for know since a new patch is coming and you never know what they'll add. Adding useful stuff that can be gotten for vouchers is a distinct possibility.

Carbonised

I'm sorry to say, but the current "master crafter" system has nothing "master" about it at all, it is only a matter of having enough drone alts to do the crafting dailies.

The amount that motif knowledge applies to getting a chance for a master writ is negligble at best. Meaning, just like Asardes writes above, a level 50 crafter that has the basic and cheap motifs learned, has a more than reasonable chance to get a writ, whereas a master crafter with everything learned, still has more than a reasonable chance to get 0 master writ drops.

So in order to beat the RNG game, you need a lot of alts. And then when you actually do get a writ, RNG again decides whether you get a nice 100-380 voucher one, or a trashy 2-4 voucher one. And then again quantity wins over quality, as the voucher number is puer RNG and has nothing to do with skill.

As conclusion, my master crafter with everything learned in every craft has been getting the odd 2-4 voucher writ every other day or so, and zero of the bigger ones, while people who do craftting dailies with several alts are now swimming in vouchers with little to spend them on, while I have to resort to buying 6-8 voucher sealed writs in the stores just to get the few golden recipes I want from the NPC, and can forget about even getting any crafting stations or anything else from the voucher merchant.

So much for a supposed "master crafter" system, where once again quantity and RNG wins over quality and crafting competence. ZOS loves their RNG to a fault, and do their best to implement it in each and every feature in this game.

RaddlemanNumber7

MW drop rates have been very up and down for me recently week-on-week, but the average WV take has not changed. The average still seems to be about 1 WV for each daily writ done on my 3 crafters.

agegarton

I used to do the Writs daily on each character, having invested loads in their crafting skill lines. I have seen the drop rate for Master Writs nosedive, and getting a “good” Master writ (50+ vouchers) appears to be almost impossible now.

On that basis, I don’t do as much any more. I’m overwhelmed with drops of unneeded low level mats...... very frustrating.

Tan9oSuccka

For me, (anecdotal I know) I get better Master writs when I don’t do them for a couple days.

Otherwise, it’s usually the BS dip and dunk 6 vouchers for a semi rare style.

KingMagaw

My account is similar:


14 Characters, 5 9trait'ers, rest are progressing. 1 main character all motifs learned, my 2nd is close behind and then motif knowledge scattered throughout my characters.

I do writs everyday, this i missed 3 days since Legendary Writs started dropping. I can totally confirm my lower end alts on less motif/traits learned has consistently earned more Legendary vouchers than my main character who always knows all motifs and has been 9 trait for 2 years.

My main character is actually sitting around 5th on earned vouchers and my 2nd best character is sitting around 10th on earned vouchers. This is not RNG as i have been monitoring the process over 11 months so around 320 writ hand in's per char so RNG should of easily equalled out by now and it clearly hasn't.

Kali_Despoine

I know players w/ mo motif knowledge will get higher writs values and writs more often than me w/ massive motif knowledge

Housing sucks so I just stopped doing them all together recently

Cpt_Teemo

Same here I noticed haven't really seen a MW over 10 on my main crafter with all traits, and motifs and barely get like 1-2 MW's every 2 weeks sometimes.

Even though my other 13 chars have no trait knowledge basically, and hardly any motifs they still tend to get more MW's more frequently, even though they still suck lol.

IwakuraLain42

I'm doing writs daily on two chars: one with no motifs except the basic one, she sees a writ every 2 month on average; the other knows all relevant motifs except Silken Ring, she sees a writ every 4-5 days, mostly 5-6 ones. Before the last update, when I knew a relevant motifs I saw a write every 2-3 days on average.

Onigar

Thanks for all the comments so far. I feel less alone with this now

I should have given an idea of what I consider a poor Drop Rate for Master Writs vs a much better Drop Rate and I wil add this into the starting comment for this discussion.

From 8 characters per day,
Poor Drop Rate = 5 to 7 writs received (more normally 5)
Good Drop Rate = 12 to 14 writs received (a similar improvement was noticeable by different ppl at around the same 33 motiv learnt point but then decreased sharply with more motiv knowledge)

This is of course not even across my characters, I have many with no writs but then 1 char gets 2 or 3 writs for example.

Variation is normal with RNG as scatter from a projected trend line which we would expect to be moving in the direction of RNG improvement however it looks like for whatever reason the RNG improvement is not supported by the results.

I do not imagine there is much focus from ZOS available to look at such matters as Master Writs is a bit "old hat" especially as there is always new content to work on but with still so many players stil having an interest in daily writs maybe, just maybe there could be a little time made available for a Dev (and Mathmatician) to investigate.

Recremen

Nestor wrote: »

Bottom line, the RNG factor for Writs ebbs and flows. You will have weeks of no Writs, and weeks where you get them quite often.

If your not getting master writs, stop doing crafting writs for a couple of weeks to save mats.

@Nestor

Dude that's not how that works. >.>

Nestor

Recremen wrote: »

Dude that's not how that works. >.>

If your on the think end of the RNG curve, then this is your best option. Or, you can waste the top tier mats and not get any master writs in return. If I go more than 2 or 3 days without getting any master writs, then I stop for a couple of weeks, maybe less, and try again. I frequently get writs after taking the time off.

But, this works for me, whatever works for you, do that.

yttoks

I suppose if you're aiming for master writs, then my experience matches: motifs and research don't seem to make that much difference.

But I'm in it for the money. Selling master writs is not very lucrative, and my gut feeling is more indirect methods of making gold off them (getting the vouchers from them and selling what you get or make from) is a low return game.

I haven't made a study of it, it's all anecdote, but what appears to be effected by crafting level and motifs/research is gold temper drops and survey drops. My more advanced chars seem to definitely get those more often, though I could be wrong, not having studied it. In any case, that's where the gold can be made with writs. That and the gold you get from just doing them.

I'd tell a new player to forget about that damn horse and make sure you max your crafting research every day. Decon. Everything. Put skill points in the crafting level and the research skills (metallurgy, stitching, etc) the moment they are available.

Recremen

Nestor wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Dude that's not how that works. >.>

If your on the think end of the RNG curve, then this is your best option. Or, you can waste the top tier mats and not get any master writs in return. If I go more than 2 or 3 days without getting any master writs, then I stop for a couple of weeks, maybe less, and try again. I frequently get writs after taking the time off.

But, this works for me, whatever works for you, do that.

@Nestor

No I mean that mathematically you are not more or less likely to be wasting your mats on your next run of writs than on your previous attempts. Unless they're implemented as anything except a drop chance, that is just not a good suggestion. Your own experience may make it seem like that's a good suggestion but the actual underlying statistics say otherwise. You can't manipulate where you are on the distribution curve like that, it's not a real thing.

Asardes

I don't do the ordinary writs primarily for master writs, because they are not very lucrative. The profit margin is very small, especially for legendary gear, foods that contain perfect roe and prismatic glyphs. I haven't either sold or bought any, but hoarded them for a long time, then did them simply to clear inventory. I could buy some of the more expensive items in Roris Hlaalu's inventory for resale, but I have no immediate need for cash. The reason I do the ordinary writs is primarily the steady inflow of cash and, more importantly kuta and gold tempers. Even taking into account the requirement of master writs, the price of some of the base materials (especially silk) writs overall are largely profitable in the long run. As I said I do suspect the developers will add more items purchasable with writs soon. I'm probably not the only one having vouchers, but nothing worthwhile to purchase for them. Leveling a character to 50, then feeding it junk items to decon is easy enough to make several crafters within 2 weeks - skill points from leveling suffice for fully speccing the main crafting passives in all trades.

Nestor

Recremen wrote: »

No I mean that mathematically you are not more or less likely to be wasting your mats on your next run of writs than on your previous attempts. Unless they're implemented as anything except a drop chance, that is just not a good suggestion. Your own experience may make it seem like that's a good suggestion but the actual underlying statistics say otherwise. You can't manipulate where you are on the distribution curve like that, it's not a real thing.

The first thing to understand is Random is not really Random in a Computer Program. There is a pattern and the repeat rate depends on many factors. If it was hardware random, or truly a physical dice roll, that would be different.

Yes, the RNG in this game is a Sinusoidal Curve. We have discussed this at length on the boards and game evidence supports this. I would link the threads but the search function on these boards leaves a lot to be desired. Not every player or character even is on the same point of the curve at the same time. Which is why one alt can have good luck and another not so much.

Over a year? Sure, it probably does not matter, in the short term, yes it does. If you have lots of Alts your doing this on, then it probably does not matter either, short or long term. But a one or two Alt account, it does.

Cavedog

I do all six writs on seven toons. I feel like the higher value master writ drop rate took a major nose dive with clockwork city release.

Also, I've been watching the value of my master writs that drop on my master crafter than knows all motifs vs. the toons that are max level in crafting, but don't know all motifs. There is no difference. Knowing more motifs does not increase the drop rate or value of the master writs you get. Being max level in that craft matters, but not the number of styles you can craft.

Grimm13

For me I do notice a difference in the drops due to level of the skill learned. Have 12 toons, four of which have maxed the craft skills to level 10.

The eight that have craft skills 1-5 seems to get more writs, surveys and variety of Provisioning recipes (the maxed seem to get the same few green provision recipes).

This has been longer than the past four weeks. The last too I moved up to level 10 had great drops until then. So I have decided why move up the rest on craft skills.