Time to disclose official odds on Crown Crate drops?

AlienatedGoat

So this happened.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42441608

Apple is now requiring Apps on its platform to disclose odds on lootboxes and lootbox-like systems that give random digital goods.

This is HUGE news. Apple is a massive company and has a large degree of influence. It's likely that they will use that influence to convince and pressure other companies to follow suit on this rule of disclosing odds (such as Google, Valve, etc). This is already going to impact Bethesda and their parent company Zenimax Media. The Elder Scrolls: Legends is a card game that uses lootbox-like systems to sell card packs, and it is on the App Store. It will have to comply with disclosing odds if it is going to remain on the App Store. This may also affect Fallout Shelter if it has any system that sells random digital items.

With that, I have to ask: ZOS, do you really need to be told by Valve or someone else to disclose odds on your Crown Crates?

Would it not look better and also buy goodwill with your customers if you did this of your own volition and choice?

Either the government or the companies that own the platforms (or both) will make and enforce rules that treat lootboxes as gambling and institute similar consumer protections. 2018 is going to see a lot of changes in this regard. It's going to happen. It's already happening.

So again I'll ask: ZOS, isn't it time for you to disclose odds on your Crown Crates?



@ZOS_MattFiror @ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom

Faunter

Until then, feel free to check out the community gathered drop rates.

Magdalina

I've seen this too. This is interesting actually, will have to see what happens next.

Though in all fairness, it'll probably take years for this to spread to other companies, and Zenimax will use every minute of it...

Easily_Lost

From my point of view: Why does it matter? So would posting the odds persuade you by Crown Crates?

I wish I had the cartoon <beating a dead horse>

KingYogi415

Knowing ZOS they would lie about the odds to look good anyways...

DieAlteHexe

Easily_Lost wrote: »

From my point of view: Why does it matter? So would posting the odds persuade you by Crown Crates?

I wish I had the cartoon <beating a dead horse>

Like this?

Prof_Bawbag

Easily_Lost wrote: »

From my point of view: Why does it matter? So would posting the odds persuade you by Crown Crates?

I wish I had the cartoon <beating a dead horse>

The more pertinent question is why not?

code65536

Easily_Lost wrote: »

From my point of view: Why does it matter? So would posting the odds persuade you by Crown Crates?

I wish I had the cartoon <beating a dead horse>

You're right: it probably won't have any effect. The disclosed odds on lottery tickets don't discourage people from sinking money into lotteries when the jackpot gets high, and those who would pay attention to the numbers are those who would never touch lottery tickets in the first place.

The same holds true here. Those who ask for the odds to be disclosed are predominately those who already boycott crates and refuse to buy them.

But this is a two-way argument. If it doesn't matter, then what does ZOS have to lose by disclosure? It won't affect crate sales and will only serve to take some ammunition away from the anti-crate crowd.


(I fully support disclosure, simply as a matter of principle. Though it would have no effect on me because I have never bought--and do not intend to buy--a crate.)

Vaoh

Faunter wrote: »

Until then, feel free to check out the community gathered drop rates.

If they do release the actual loot % chances it’d be awesome to see how close your data got!

JD2013

To what end?

I mean, yes it would be nice to see what the drop rates are, however those who vocally boycott the crates certainly won’t be suddenly swayed to buy them if they release the numbers, and those that buy crown crates clearly aren’t too bothered by the drop rate as they purchase them anyhow. Some by the dozens.

zaria

Faunter wrote: »

Until then, feel free to check out the community gathered drop rates.

This,

Darkstorne

JD2013 wrote: »

To what end?

I mean, yes it would be nice to see what the drop rates are, however those who vocally boycott the crates certainly won’t be suddenly swayed to buy them if they release the numbers, and those that buy crown crates clearly aren’t too bothered by the drop rate as they purchase them anyhow. Some by the dozens.

The very first time I experienced loot boxes in games was for some mobile Dragon Age game. I had no idea what loot boxes were, and they advertised their current batch with an awesome dragon that could "only be obtained from these loot boxes". I thought it would be awesome to add a dragon to my army, and figured that since it's a free to play game that must be how they monetize it, so I bought a loot box fully expecting that dragon. Of course, I didn't get a dragon. I got a bunch of other *** that had nothing to do with dragons. I felt disgusted when I suddenly realized how they work, and I've never bought a loot box in any game since. Never will.

If, by law, that game had been forced to disclose that I only have a 1% chance of actually getting a dragon, I would never have given my money away like that. I don't know how many people have experienced something similar in ESO, but they do exactly the same ***: "here's a picture of the awesome apex mounts you can get in this new Crown Crate!" No mention of how unlikely it is that you'll ever get one unless you drop around $100+ worth of Crowns. I'm sure 99%+ of players know it's a low chance, but if even one person is spared the frustration and disappointment into being tricked out of their money with this disgusting loot box practice, it's worth it.

Stormshaper

The Apple news is big, overall this is good info for gamers to gain a more informed decision about spending their money. Hardly seems rational to say we shouldn't have this information. But I'm thinking the answer in general with regards to all games (including ESO) is more complicated. For example, can odds by calculated before knowing the total number of loot boxes sold, for example? To quote one statistician who was referring to mega jackpot lotteries, "To calculate the
true expected value of our ticket we need to estimate the probability distribution of the number of winners. This requires us to know the number of tickets sold." [source] Those types of lotteries publish their odds, but aren't 100% accurate. And those are one-time drawings. What happens if Crown crates for example, are sold again at a later date. The odds published on the second round of sales could be 100% accurate but might differ some or a lot compared to the odds published initially. So in the end I think it's a positive to be given the info, but I also think consumers will need to be aware of some inherent discrepanies showing up. The same statistician summarizes it nicely with this, "The decision of whether to buy a lottery ticket shouldn’t be based on the probability of winning, or the expected return of a ticket, but on the entertainment value that comes from [it]."

Stormshaper

JD2013 wrote: »

To what end?

I mean, yes it would be nice to see what the drop rates are, however those who vocally boycott the crates certainly won’t be suddenly swayed to buy them if they release the numbers, and those that buy crown crates clearly aren’t too bothered by the drop rate as they purchase them anyhow. Some by the dozens.

I agree that the information wouldn't have much impact on sales. And if you're right it seems to beg the question, what would they (or any other company) have to lose by publishing this information?

WhiteCoatSyndrome

Phage wrote: »

This may also affect Fallout Shelter if it has any system that sells random digital items.

It does; the Lunchboxes that drop in-game (grants items, Junk, occasionally Dwellers and Pets: most of which have common, uncommon, and rare variants) can also be bought in the store for real money. And the pet carriers probably count too; you're guaranteed a pet, but not what kind of pet.

SodanTok

No? Why disclose it if you dont have to?

Buffler

Do you honestly think they will disclose this information before they have to?

As soon as they do, most people will see the appalling drop rate and stop buying them.

zaria

Stormshaper wrote: »

The Apple news is big, overall this is good info for gamers to gain a more informed decision about spending their money. Hardly seems rational to say we shouldn't have this information. But I'm thinking the answer in general with regards to all games (including ESO) is more complicated. For example, can odds by calculated before knowing the total number of loot boxes sold, for example? To quote one statistician who was referring to mega jackpot lotteries, "To calculate the
true expected value of our ticket we need to estimate the probability distribution of the number of winners. This requires us to know the number of tickets sold." [source] Those types of lotteries publish their odds, but aren't 100% accurate. And those are one-time drawings. What happens if Crown crates for example, are sold again at a later date. The odds published on the second round of sales could be 100% accurate but might differ some or a lot compared to the odds published initially. So in the end I think it's a positive to be given the info, but I also think consumers will need to be aware of some inherent discrepanies showing up. The same statistician summarizes it nicely with this, "The decision of whether to buy a lottery ticket shouldn’t be based on the probability of winning, or the expected return of a ticket, but on the entertainment value that comes from [it]."

An jackpot is different, the chance on winning might depend on number of tickets sold.
Chance of lower prices are known.
Same with loot boxes, chance is fixed, you can not run an running lottery without fixed changes or rewards.

Dawnblade

I'd have more respect for companies that use gamble boxes as a revenue model if they disclosed the odds.

I imagine it will eventually happen as platforms and marketplace stores take the side of their customers as well as seek to avoid to ending up in the cross hairs of say a state AG looking to make a name for themselves by going after companies exploiting gamble boxes.

Samadhi

Stormshaper wrote: »

JD2013 wrote: »

To what end?

I mean, yes it would be nice to see what the drop rates are, however those who vocally boycott the crates certainly won’t be suddenly swayed to buy them if they release the numbers, and those that buy crown crates clearly aren’t too bothered by the drop rate as they purchase them anyhow. Some by the dozens.

I agree that the information wouldn't have much impact on sales. And if you're right it seems to beg the question, what would they (or any other company) have to lose by publishing this information?

Customer goodwill,
as those who do buy Crown Crates will receive additional harassment
from people who do not buy crates
but feel that if the people who do *really* understood their odds of winning they would not either

there are already individuals who feel mistreated by players who dislike crates
the only change now is that they will be faced with individuals using a data point to tell them why they are in the wrong for spending their money

iiYuki

they wont do it, they'll claim you dont buy crates with real money so it doesnt count. Its one of the reasons they use virtual currency.

raj72616a

iiYuki wrote: »

they wont do it, they'll claim you dont buy crates with real money so it doesnt count. Its one of the reasons they use virtual currency.

and they can claim that many players are paying for ESO+, the crowns given are free gift and are not paid for.

Prof_Bawbag

raj72616a wrote: »

iiYuki wrote: »

they wont do it, they'll claim you dont buy crates with real money so it doesnt count. Its one of the reasons they use virtual currency.

and they can claim that many players are paying for ESO+, the crowns given are free gift and are not paid for.

The crowns aren't a free gift. They're one component that make up the sub. I mean, remove every perk from the sub then why would anyone even pay for the sub? The crowns are as free as the craft bag, dlc access, the extra housing storage and everything else that the sub entails.

danno8

code65536 wrote: »

Easily_Lost wrote: »

From my point of view: Why does it matter? So would posting the odds persuade you by Crown Crates?

I wish I had the cartoon <beating a dead horse>

You're right: it probably won't have any effect. The disclosed odds on lottery tickets don't discourage people from sinking money into lotteries when the jackpot gets high, and those who would pay attention to the numbers are those who would never touch lottery tickets in the first place.

The same holds true here. Those who ask for the odds to be disclosed are predominately those who already boycott crates and refuse to buy them.

But this is a two-way argument. If it doesn't matter, then what does ZOS have to lose by disclosure? It won't affect crate sales and will only serve to take some ammunition away from the anti-crate crowd.


(I fully support disclosure, simply as a matter of principle. Though it would have no effect on me because I have never bought--and do not intend to buy--a crate.)

I disagree actually.

I think many people think there chances of receiving an legendary mount are somewhere in the range of 1-5%. So they figure buying 20 crates should give them a good chance at receiving one.

If they saw the rate was more like .1% or less they would probably be less likely to try.

Also if disclosing the rates has no effect on purchasing decisions, then why do companies choose not to disclose them? The answer is pretty obvious. People always think their chances of winning are greater than they are. Especially when they don't know the odds.

Korah_Eaglecry

This is Apple getting out in front of the possible legislation that might be incoming due to the Battlefront 2 backlash. Numerous US states are looking into either banning or regulating lootboxes in video games and a handful of European countries have expressed interest in investigating lootboxes.

If Apple forces these games to disclose their odds. Apple can turn around to legislators and say "See, we're on your side and want to be as transparent as possible. Banning these lootboxes are unnecessary now that everyone knows the odds." Its really just a PR move to disarm the situation before it further negatively impacts what ever money Apple makes from these games. Its why Apple is being vocal about their policy change.

danno8

Korah_Eaglecry wrote: »

This is Apple getting out in front of the possible legislation that might be incoming due to the Battlefront 2 backlash. Numerous US states are looking into either banning or regulating lootboxes in video games and a handful of European countries have expressed interest in investigating lootboxes.

If Apple forces these games to disclose their odds. Apple can turn around to legislators and say "See, we're on your side and want to be as transparent as possible. Banning these lootboxes are unnecessary now that everyone knows the odds." Its really just a PR move to disarm the situation before it further negatively impacts what ever money Apple makes from these games. Its why Apple is being vocal about their policy change.

Basically yes. It would be nice to see other companies (like ZoS) trying to do the right thing before their hands are forced, but it's unlikely to happen until legislation is presented.

But the writing is on the wall. I would be surprised if all gaming companies haven't had meetings to address the official angle on lootboxes should they be questioned about it, and possible avenues if lootboxes become regulated in some way.

Joy_Division

Faunter wrote: »

Until then, feel free to check out the community gathered drop rates.

This is pretty awesome.

I appreciate you providing this. It should have greater awareness, I didn't know it existed until today. Then again, I don't really participate in the crown Crate system so I'm certainly not the most knowledgeable of such things.

Samadhi

Korah_Eaglecry wrote: »

This is Apple getting out in front of the possible legislation that might be incoming due to the Battlefront 2 backlash. ...

danno8 wrote: »

Korah_Eaglecry wrote: »

This is Apple getting out in front of the possible legislation that might be incoming due to the Battlefront 2 backlash. Numerous US states are looking into either banning or regulating lootboxes in video games and a handful of European countries have expressed interest in investigating lootboxes.

If Apple forces these games to disclose their odds. Apple can turn around to legislators and say "See, we're on your side and want to be as transparent as possible. Banning these lootboxes are unnecessary now that everyone knows the odds." Its really just a PR move to disarm the situation before it further negatively impacts what ever money Apple makes from these games. Its why Apple is being vocal about their policy change.

Basically yes. It would be nice to see other companies (like ZoS) trying to do the right thing before their hands are forced, ...

Similar to Apple in this instance,
may be more likely to see Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft take a position on it

would not expect ZOS to mention anything unless they are required to by another company

if anything, the discouraging part of this development is that Apple is turning a state-side spotlight onto lootboxes specifically
when lootboxes are more just symptomatic of predatory practices around in-game stores

Zaldan

not happening without a legal requirement to do so

SisterGoat

Remember when people kept getting tons of Nix Hounds? The crates were actually rigged so that you would have a much higher rate of getting one if you drew a blue card. The crate logger revealed that, but since then the odds of items have been much more even in newer crate seasons. Posting the odds of items would make sure certain items in each tier were not more common or rare. They should be equal within each tier!

Pwoo

Why do people even care about the odds? Valve released CS:GO case drops a few months ago and absolutely nothing changed.