I've tracked 48 VMA drops, and I can confirm that the 12 weapons do not drop evenly (p < 0.02).
. So your chances of getting a specific weapon are:
Bow - 1/6
Restoration Staff - 1/6
Dagger - 1/12
Sword - 1/12
Mace - 1/12
Axe - 1/12
Greatsword - 1/18
Battle Axe - 1/18
Maul - 1/18
Lightning Staff - 1/18
Frost Staff - 1/18
Fire Staff - 1/18
So if you're hunting a sharpened fire staff, you have a 1/18 chance of getting a fire staff at all, and a 1/8 chance of getting sharpened, for a total chance of 1/144 on each drop.
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xblackroxe wrote: »So much bs around. All these numbers you give aren't even close to make a statiscally correct assumption.
Thats like if I would look at my last 2 runs. Got snb precise nirn, sharp 2h axe, sharp inferno and smth else and conclude must be rigged cause i got a 1/4 chance to drop a sharp inferno lol.
kasa-obake wrote: »xblackroxe wrote: »So much bs around. All these numbers you give aren't even close to make a statiscally correct assumption.
Thats like if I would look at my last 2 runs. Got snb precise nirn, sharp 2h axe, sharp inferno and smth else and conclude must be rigged cause i got a 1/4 chance to drop a sharp inferno lol.
@xblackroxe 510 runs seems like a more decent sample than 4...
EDIT: Summed up if you're too tired to read but not tired enough to call ***, traits have the same chance to drop. They aren't rigged. It's the items themselves that have a global chance to drop by category:
resto and bow on their own, all 1h weapons together, all 2h weapons together, and all destro staves together.
Whether you chose to call it rigged or not is your call, but it remains nonetheless either an oversight or just a plain unfair distribution.
Ofc its rigged dont believe if people post some charts they all lie RNG is not random i figured out we always get the most *** traits and items first it improves as we farm more and its started drop better traits for example sharpened maybe they have even chances but you will get sharpened always after 100 runs or more thats how the rig works.
it improves as we farm more and its started drop better traits .
it improves as we farm more
xblackroxe wrote: »kasa-obake wrote: »xblackroxe wrote: »So much bs around. All these numbers you give aren't even close to make a statiscally correct assumption.
Thats like if I would look at my last 2 runs. Got snb precise nirn, sharp 2h axe, sharp inferno and smth else and conclude must be rigged cause i got a 1/4 chance to drop a sharp inferno lol.
@xblackroxe 510 runs seems like a more decent sample than 4...
EDIT: Summed up if you're too tired to read but not tired enough to call ***, traits have the same chance to drop. They aren't rigged. It's the items themselves that have a global chance to drop by category:
resto and bow on their own, all 1h weapons together, all 2h weapons together, and all destro staves together.
Whether you chose to call it rigged or not is your call, but it remains nonetheless either an oversight or just a plain unfair distribution.
Yes I read your post. And thx for clarifying that traits are not rigged. Neither are weapon drops. Its just a stupid way to make weapons drop.
EDIT: Also impressive work on doing vma almost twice a day on average since wrotgar launched.
It's rigged because they have no other way to extend gameplay. All they know now is rng, just look at one tamriel the grindfest.
xblackroxe wrote: »kasa-obake wrote: »xblackroxe wrote: »So much bs around. All these numbers you give aren't even close to make a statiscally correct assumption.
Thats like if I would look at my last 2 runs. Got snb precise nirn, sharp 2h axe, sharp inferno and smth else and conclude must be rigged cause i got a 1/4 chance to drop a sharp inferno lol.
@xblackroxe 510 runs seems like a more decent sample than 4...
EDIT: Summed up if you're too tired to read but not tired enough to call ***, traits have the same chance to drop. They aren't rigged. It's the items themselves that have a global chance to drop by category:
resto and bow on their own, all 1h weapons together, all 2h weapons together, and all destro staves together.
Whether you chose to call it rigged or not is your call, but it remains nonetheless either an oversight or just a plain unfair distribution.
Yes I read your post. And thx for clarifying that traits are not rigged. Neither are weapon drops. Its just a stupid way to make weapons drop.
EDIT: Also impressive work on doing vma almost twice a day on average since wrotgar launched.
Okay so, I've taken all the loot I got from vMSA, the loot of the people who posted there (only took those who mentioned trait + item for every run and ignored quotes + double posts) bringing the total to 510 drops. It's not much but still more than the people who QQ for 10 runs (and I should know, I'm already crying after 10 runs since the event started).
bottleofsyrup wrote: »xblackroxe wrote: »kasa-obake wrote: »xblackroxe wrote: »So much bs around. All these numbers you give aren't even close to make a statiscally correct assumption.
Thats like if I would look at my last 2 runs. Got snb precise nirn, sharp 2h axe, sharp inferno and smth else and conclude must be rigged cause i got a 1/4 chance to drop a sharp inferno lol.
@xblackroxe 510 runs seems like a more decent sample than 4...
EDIT: Summed up if you're too tired to read but not tired enough to call ***, traits have the same chance to drop. They aren't rigged. It's the items themselves that have a global chance to drop by category:
resto and bow on their own, all 1h weapons together, all 2h weapons together, and all destro staves together.
Whether you chose to call it rigged or not is your call, but it remains nonetheless either an oversight or just a plain unfair distribution.
Yes I read your post. And thx for clarifying that traits are not rigged. Neither are weapon drops. Its just a stupid way to make weapons drop.
EDIT: Also impressive work on doing vma almost twice a day on average since wrotgar launched.
Way to ignore the first part of the post.Okay so, I've taken all the loot I got from vMSA, the loot of the people who posted there (only took those who mentioned trait + item for every run and ignored quotes + double posts) bringing the total to 510 drops. It's not much but still more than the people who QQ for 10 runs (and I should know, I'm already crying after 10 runs since the event started).
Kingbawsack wrote: »Defo rigged. Past 4 runs
X5 resto staffs-- x2 charged x2 powered X1 sharpened,
Bigevilpeter wrote: »
Another waaah-waaah I didn't get my BiS endgame weapon in 1-2 tries.
I'm all for a token system or revising/reworking the rates and traits. But to whine and complain after a few runs is just silly, at least put in some actual work before making yet another thread.
jakeedmundson wrote: »Another waaah-waaah I didn't get my BiS endgame weapon in 1-2 tries.
I'm all for a token system or revising/reworking the rates and traits. But to whine and complain after a few runs is just silly, at least put in some actual work before making yet another thread.
Look at @kasa-obake 's post with the 500+ drops.... its no longer a suspicion of weighted drops. you are more likely to get bows and resto staffs than any other item... though i do seem to personally find A LOT of sword and shield drops this week...
kasa-obake wrote: »@DPShiro What he ^ said.
@jakeedmundson well swords and boards do have a higher chance ton drop than 2h or staves, so it's not that unlikely.
As for the % 500 drops still isn't that much, all things considered. I plan on updating my charts and tables during the event. Perhaps numbers like 2k+ runs will finally garner enough attention.
I saw no point however in delaying this post. The sooner it's out there and acknowledged, the sooner we can hope for a resolution.
Or no changes at all and merely an answer like "yeah we're aware. Deal with it 8)". Any answer would still be better than no reply at all though.
kasa-obake wrote: »@DPShiro What he ^ said.
@jakeedmundson well swords and boards do have a higher chance ton drop than 2h or staves, so it's not that unlikely.
As for the % 500 drops still isn't that much, all things considered. I plan on updating my charts and tables during the event. Perhaps numbers like 2k+ runs will finally garner enough attention.
I saw no point however in delaying this post. The sooner it's out there and acknowledged, the sooner we can hope for a resolution.
Or no changes at all and merely an answer like "yeah we're aware. Deal with it 8)". Any answer would still be better than no reply at all though.
Or the more realistic scenario where once the event is over and people lose interest again, they'll find other things to focus their complaints about and vMA will carry on the same as it always was since the guaranteed drop rate change. In the meantime, more end game players will continue to vent their frustration over the loot drops until they stop running it and go back to whatever they were doing before the event.
Essentially things will go back to the occasional vent by the usual suspects on not getting their sought after item and the ESO world will pivot onto the next big complaint.