VMA Loot Tables Are Weighted

Ch4mpTW

Maelstrom Runs Orsinium Event

Run #1
- Battle Axe (Powered)
- Battle Axe (Decisive)
Run #2
- Mace (Precise) / (Nirnhoned)
- Sword (Precise) / (Divines)
Run #3
- Sword (Charged) / (Impenetrable)
- Restoration Staff (Decisive)
Run #4
- Dagger (Defending)
- Bow (Charged)
Run #5
- Battle Axe (Decisive)
- Restoration Staff (Infused)
Run #6
- Maul (Charged)
- Restoration Staff (Decisive)

Do you notice anything wrong here for something that is supposed to be 'random'...? Yeah, not very random. Is it? And for those who defend this pos RNG system and would call me a liar, I've screen shot every single chest I've received so far. You can't possibly defend this crap. And no chart missing date and time stamps looking like it was made via MS Paint can make me think otherwise.

A quick question to a developer who says that it's just "bad luck". How is it possibly random to receive within. 6 runs multiple duplicates of the SAME item, while never once seeing a single item of any trait? Keep in mind, there are people who've for months experienced this (I myself am included in this as I've never seen a lightning staff of any kind in the final chest). So please, do explain that for me. As those drops I listed above are statistically unlikely and should NOT be occurring within a truly random system. And then repeats of the same trait of said item in such a small amount of runs? Lmao. You've got to be joking.

Oh, and 1 more thing. Let's view these drops from a different point of view. Shall we? Let us say that this wasn't the Orsinium Event. And that those would've been drops in sequence per run. Within 12 runs to get that's many duplicates? Really now? Can you explain to me how the RNG isn't flawed? Because I'm just waiting to see the defense for ZOS people are going to come up with.

Alanar

I've tracked 48 VMA drops, and I can confirm that the 12 weapons do not drop evenly (p < 0.02). My sample is most consistent with each TYPE of weapon having a 1/6 chance, so dagger/axe share, mace/sword share, all three 2H weapons share, and all three destruction staves share, while bows and restoration staves each have their own chance. So your chances of getting a specific weapon are:

Bow - 1/6
Restoration Staff - 1/6

Dagger - 1/12
Sword - 1/12
Mace - 1/12
Axe - 1/12

Greatsword - 1/18
Battle Axe - 1/18
Maul - 1/18
Lightning Staff - 1/18
Frost Staff - 1/18
Fire Staff - 1/18

Within each weapon line the type of weapon and traits do tend to be random. Truly random selection has more duplicates than humans expect, look up the birthday paradox for an example. For your case, the duplicate decisive restoration staves isn't too surprising, since restoration staves are so much more common than other types. The duplicate battle axes is more unusual, but still well within the realm of RNG.

Wollust

Your sample is just too small to say anything about the distribution of the traits.
I have gotten quite a bit more sharpened stuff compared to any other trait. So in my eyes the RNG would be weighted in favor of sharpened. But that's just not how it works.

SirAndy

A search here would have saved you some headache, it's been long since established that ZOS RNG is in fact not actual straight RNG.

It has always had clear patterns that are repeatable and (to a certain degree) predictable.

Oreyn_Bearclaw

LMAO at people still grinding this place. Magic is back in a good spot and you dont need the staff to pull 40k. I wont grind this place again unless they fix/remove the RNG.


2 X a pile a crap = a bigger pile of crap.

LeeroyGankins

SirAndy wrote: »

A search here would have saved you some headache, it's been long since established that ZOS RNG is in fact not actual straight RNG.

It has always had clear patterns that are repeatable and (to a certain degree) predictable.

I'd love to repeat the guys that got sharpen bow and dagger in 5 runs....

Teach me master..

Eleusian

RNG does not mean equal chance.
It means random number generation. Very big difference.

Espica

Maybe the arena is set forever for every character once you enter it the first time.

For example my friend keeps getting Sharpened Bows, he has 6 now. The best I have is infused, the rest are a bunch of powered.
Also his shield drops are always from certain set, my shield drops are always Of Glory.

CreepyPahuska

Eleusian wrote: »

RNG does not mean equal chance.
It means random number generation. Very big difference.

very VERY VEEEEERY big difference. I wish people would learn that instead of coming here to cry because they didn't get what they wanted at the first try.

Here's a tip folks : the more you cry, the less you try. Your time would be better spent in vMA than here, if you really want those weapons.

Qbiken

If u had done like a 500 rounds of vmsa and the loottable was distribuated like this you would have a point. But u have done 6......

To small of a sample

mr_wazzabi

Qbiken wrote: »

If u had done like a 500 rounds of vmsa and the loottable was distribuated like this you would have a point. But u have done 6......

To small of a sample

This

DocFrost72

As others have said, the level of statistical power you can wield (and more importantly its accuracy) heavily depends on N, your sample size. You'd need 120-150 samples to begin to make a case, as a rule of thumb.

Riga_Mortis

More runs less crying please OP.

covenant_merchant

SirAndy

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

Teach me master..

All one needs to be illuminated is to refine a good sample size of large stacks of raw mats and record not only what tempers were received (green/blue/purple/gold) and how many but also at what interval (in the time domain) tempers dropped.

The result is a distinct square wave for the time domain for temper drops (regardless of quality).
That already excludes the use of pure randomness.

Then analyze the temper distribution during the drop intervals to reveal even more distinct patterns.

Every time you have any sort of distinct, repeatable, predictable pattern you are *not* dealing with pure RNG.

silky_soft

I'm just stocking up for when they cave to the casuals demand and we get a token system.

Judgedread101071

Qbiken wrote: »

If u had done like a 500 rounds of vmsa and the loottable was distribuated like this you would have a point. But u have done 6......

To small of a sample

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZulDvY6PNwY

300+ runs, about 150 after thieves guild patch so i only kept the weapons in the video.
This is an old video and by now I have even more restos, bows and 1h and shield.The ratio is almost x2 than the other weapons.
Your thoughts?

Ch4mpTW

Run #7
- Sword (Precise) / (Divines)
- Bow (Infused)

How do you all defend this crap and say it's random? Are you kidding me? 7 runs, and within them I get multiple repeats everywhere. Back after back. And not a single damn destruction staff? But yet and still, you all defend ZOS to the teeth and swear out how fair and balanced the loot tables are? And how my sampling is too small? In 7 runs I get those many repeats and not a single destruction staff? This is ignorant at this point. I'm done.

Edit: I just noticed that even the shield was an exact copy of what I got in my 2nd run. The likelyhood of any of this happening are slim to none, with things being skewered on the RNG side of things being the only answer to this bs. I'm done arguing trying to prove my point. You want to be spoonfed lies and believe charts made by Microsoft Paint? By all means. I know otherwise. People I play with in-game know otherwise. And those with common sense know otherwise.

idk

@Ch4mpTW

Considering the size of the loot table, you are providing an extremely small sample that is not enough to draw any conclusions.

xblackroxe

I'm not sure if its rigged. Maybe, maybe not. But that sample size says nothing you dont even have droped close to the number of different weapon drops that exist. So this sample size says nothing over the bigger picture.

BigBragg

In before ZOS response with a graphic stating that drops are balanced when pulled from server statistics.

psxfloh

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

As those drops I listed above are statistically unlikely and should NOT be occurring within a truly random system.

From a statistic's point of view it is the other way around. Given enough people it would be highly unlikely that everyone gets an even distribution. There's almost a 100% chance that some will get the short end (never getting that precise inferno staff) while some others will get perfect traits almost every run..
But only the people on the short end will come to these forums and complain.

This is not to prove you wrong, just an explanation why it's almost certain that some will indeed have "bad luck" most of the time.

Skinzz

I believe in this too. Lately, I've been getting all infused/nirn battle axes. Last week I recieved 3 greatswords in a row, 2 precise and sharpened.

DRXHarbinger

Trust me in 11 months I've only pulled one inferno and 2 lit and 2 ice staves out of that chests. I have a shard bow on both stam toons, 1 Sharp maul, 1 sharp great swords, 2 shard daggers and 1 sharp axe.

Then I have well now anyway...243 dwemer frames. From deconning anything non sharp or resto. The weighting of this chest is well and truly pissed.

Panda_iMunch

The issue is that people often grind with no end in sight 90% of the time. It's all the role of dice and very few people like that.

Destiny had the same issue and they had to revamp it a long ass time ago. ESO hasn't changed much. Smart loot was a step in the right direction, but it was way too underdeveloped to solve the mass issue by most means.

Ch4mpTW

BigBragg wrote: »

In before ZOS response with a graphic stating that drops are balanced when pulled from server statistics.

Lol. You mean more charts whipped up to defend their system that lacks date and time stamps, and looks like it was made by an elementary school kid via MS Paint? Yeah, I would love to see that. ZOS is known for showing these horrible graphs that lacks critical detail in an attempt to prove a point. They've done it on ESO Live (it was hilarious), and they did it in another 1 of my threads where I said the undaunted chests were rigged.

boldscot

I got a sharpened maul and sharpened 1 handed axe in the same drop last night.

SodanTok

There too many people with 0 clue how RNG works.
Tho it wouldnt hurt Zos to implement "fair" pseudoRNG with escalating odds.

Sharpened, precise and decisive are like 90% of all my vma drops. I have never seen nirnhooded.

strikeback1247

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

BigBragg wrote: »

In before ZOS response with a graphic stating that drops are balanced when pulled from server statistics.

Lol. You mean more charts whipped up to defend their system that lacks date and time stamps, and looks like it was made by an elementary school kid via MS Paint? Yeah, I would love to see that. ZOS is known for showing these horrible graphs that lacks critical detail in an attempt to prove a point. They've done it on ESO Live (it was hilarious), and they did it in another 1 of my threads where I said the undaunted chests were rigged.

This is what you are doing:

"I just ran vmsa and got a charged dagger and a sharpened sword. ZoS why does charged drop 50% of the time???!!! RNGEE IS RIGGED!!!11"

All I can say is L2RNG baby :^)

Valykc

I won't touch Maelstrom until some sort of Token System is in place. I work full time and go to school full time and when I get on I just want to play, not mindlessly grind for hours and still not get anything I wanted. Yeah I'll have a loss in DPS but that's my choice. RNG is an apparent problem due to the amount of threads about it. I'd gladly run VMA 10 times for tokens just so I at least know in the end it was worth it but without that, I won't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

HoolDog

I have completed this arena over 150 times (not sure exact number)

I have 1 sharpened greatsword (weekly rewards)
2 sharpened 1h axes
1 sharpened resto
1 sharpened bow

That's only 5 sharpened weapons... 4 from the chest. That's a small sharpened drop rate from overall drops.

Since the event I have dropped 10 weapons... nothing of any use, not even a precise trait amongst them.