Is RNG as Random As We Think?

Ch4mpTW

I'm just wondering, is RNG as random as we all think it is? I'm starting to notice patterns of sorts in trial-based content and VMA.

For example, I've never received any Vicious Serpent rings when looting 12-man content bosses (everyone I ran with just passed them to me). And in VMA, I've never seen any ice staves or lightning staves. It wasn't until a few couple of months ago (1 or 2 I think), that I received my first destruction staff (nirnhoned inferno). And I know people who are in similar situations or worse.

Like for example, I know some people who've never seen a Maelstrom's Axe or Dagger in the final chest before. Or restoration Staff. And they've done hundreds of runs. In fact, I read here on the forums that there's someone who's on their 800th-something run — but has NEVER seen an inferno staff in that last chest. Surely there's more to it, I'd like to believe. And honestly? I believe there's a pattern.

The pattern, I think lies within our character data. Meaning, each character has its own set of data in regards to drops. And whenever things match-up, a certain drop is given. However! Certain characters have lesser chance to get things, to the point of them completely missing from their loot tables via character data.

That's the only explanation I can see for people having such "bad luck". We have to remember, RNG is something coded. And if something is coded, things can go wrong or have things missing. As a fellow programmer, I make mistakes here and there myself. So what's stopping that from being the case, and having some character values being missing to prevent certain drops from appearing — or appearing too frequently?

Armitas

I don't think it is. When ever I do a dungeon I always wait till the end to open my inventory so I can see it all at once. Overwhelming majority of the time it's prosperous and that other dumb one that I just forgot.

Back when I was using pledge keys instead of saving them I was always getting medium well fitted blood spawn shoulders. I saved every piece I got and all 10 of them were the same. It's not impossible to occur but it is really fishy.

I strongly think there is some attachment to character data. Not sure what but it sure seems like it. Back in beta they had some sort of loot coding based on character performance in a dungeon. The better you performed the better the loot. I wonder if it ever got turned off properly?

In fact, I read here on the forums that there's someone who's on their 800th-something run — but has NEVER seen an inferno staff in that last chest.

Seriously ZOS do something.

idk

@Ch4mpTW

How your describing the loot you get is the results of random. Sometimes you may go awhile wily out seeing jewelry from a particular set. It's life


Additionally, it would be far to complicated to even try to base loot drops off your theory. A complete waste of time to set it up and more trouble that it could possibly be worth to maintain it. Basing loot off any sort of character creation data does not occur.

Considering over time i have received a probably eniugh if VO/AE and the yokudan in a relatively even distribution (probably at least 60 total jewelry between the three sets), I can attest it's completely random. I pretty much run on 2 characters so your theory would leave me light on one set.

Additionally, there was a prisons of a few days I only got yokudan. Then all went back to normal.

Bryanonymous

Believing the RNG is completely random is not just an assumption, it takes the same amount of faith as believing it's not.

MopeyHat

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

I'm just wondering, is RNG as random as we all think it is? I'm starting to notice patterns of sorts in trial-based content and VMA.

For example, I've never received any Vicious Serpent rings when looting 12-man content bosses (everyone I ran with just passed them to me). And in VMA, I've never seen any ice staves or lightning staves. It wasn't until a few couple of months ago (1 or 2 I think), that I received my first destruction staff (nirnhoned inferno). And I know people who are in similar situations or worse.

Like for example, I know some people who've never seen a Maelstrom's Axe or Dagger in the final chest before. Or restoration Staff. And they've done hundreds of runs. In fact, I read here on the forums that there's someone who's on their 800th-something run — but has NEVER seen an inferno staff in that last chest. Surely there's more to it, I'd like to believe. And honestly? I believe there's a pattern.

The pattern, I think lies within our character data. Meaning, each character has its own set of data in regards to drops. And whenever things match-up, a certain drop is given. However! Certain characters have lesser chance to get things, to the point of them completely missing from their loot tables via character data.

That's the only explanation I can see for people having such "bad luck". We have to remember, RNG is something coded. And if something is coded, things can go wrong or have things missing. As a fellow programmer, I make mistakes here and there myself. So what's stopping that from being the case, and having some character values being missing to prevent certain drops from appearing — or appearing too frequently?

The issue may be in this case that the loot is too random. Leaving a system like this up to random chance means there's a solid chance there are several people like your friend out there - totally effed out of a BiS for no good reason at all.

These weapons should be difficult to get. Not tedious.

Why do we play fantasy games? I'd like to think one of the reasons is to get away from lifelike *** like this.

DRXHarbinger

No its not random..stam blade. Always gets a resto or a lit staff.

Mag toons always stam weapons.

Never had an inferno or ice from the chest.

ZOS pull data from my account and tell the world how many vma runs I've done. I dare you.

Shame xb doesn't keep track of it. You'd be shocked at how many times.

Never looted a sun ring. Never seen them for sale.

Never looted everfrost on my Sorc, killed over 1k frost atros, magblade probably the 4th Atro.

Totalitarian

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

Never looted everfrost on my Sorc, killed over 1k frost atros, magblade probably the 4th Atro.

You're going to hate me if I said that I got 3 of the same collectables off of 5 mobs in a row.

Recremen

MopeyHat wrote: »

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

I'm just wondering, is RNG as random as we all think it is? I'm starting to notice patterns of sorts in trial-based content and VMA.

For example, I've never received any Vicious Serpent rings when looting 12-man content bosses (everyone I ran with just passed them to me). And in VMA, I've never seen any ice staves or lightning staves. It wasn't until a few couple of months ago (1 or 2 I think), that I received my first destruction staff (nirnhoned inferno). And I know people who are in similar situations or worse.

Like for example, I know some people who've never seen a Maelstrom's Axe or Dagger in the final chest before. Or restoration Staff. And they've done hundreds of runs. In fact, I read here on the forums that there's someone who's on their 800th-something run — but has NEVER seen an inferno staff in that last chest. Surely there's more to it, I'd like to believe. And honestly? I believe there's a pattern.

The pattern, I think lies within our character data. Meaning, each character has its own set of data in regards to drops. And whenever things match-up, a certain drop is given. However! Certain characters have lesser chance to get things, to the point of them completely missing from their loot tables via character data.

That's the only explanation I can see for people having such "bad luck". We have to remember, RNG is something coded. And if something is coded, things can go wrong or have things missing. As a fellow programmer, I make mistakes here and there myself. So what's stopping that from being the case, and having some character values being missing to prevent certain drops from appearing — or appearing too frequently?

The issue may be in this case that the loot is too random. Leaving a system like this up to random chance means there's a solid chance there are several people like your friend out there - totally effed out of a BiS for no good reason at all.

These weapons should be difficult to get. Not tedious.

Why do we play fantasy games? I'd like to think one of the reasons is to get away from lifelike *** like this.

This is the view actually supported by mathematical fact, yes. We would be better off with a modified RNG system, as a pure RNG system all but guarantees that some people will never get the items they need for their build.

Kammakazi

yes

j3crow

I agree. The current RNG model, just seems like a filler to cover lack of content. Of course, RNG has to be in the game. But it should be MUCH more forgiving than it is. In fact, @ZOS should do everything in its power to not come accross to us like another Asian import. Their models are exploitive, crass, and cheap in just about every way imaginable.

@ZOS should be in the bussiness of making sure we never make the same associations with them, that we make with the throw-away F2P titles that come out of that market

That means having a RNG model that is much more generous, and doesn't come across as grindy-filler

@ZOS you have work to do in this area, and I would highly advise that you think 'really hard', about the loot crate idea. I am not saying don't do it, but the split second you come accross to me as a crass, exploitive game out of the Asian market, you've lost my brand loyalty. And thats middle-aged-consumer-with-disposable-income brand loyalty.

You've done really well, for the most part, in acting like you know how to sell to the West. The minute you start looking like 'the other guys', you'll be treated like 'the other guys'. Dont blow a good reputation so far. The Western market rewards added value. Not cheap, built-in-obselesence, rip off BS.

Thats starts with significant alteration to your RNG tables

LegendaryArcher

We have a guild in Black Desert with 26 players that quit ESO solely because of not getting their vMA weapons after hundreds of runs (almost 50 ex-ESO players overall that quit for various reasons). 3 of them didn't get a single inferno after 1000+ runs. Overall, I know 6 people that didn't get their inferno after 1000+ runs, but the other 3 didn't want to come with us to BDO.

BDO has a "bad luck protection" system implemented in its RNG. Chances increase to get a certain item on the next roll when you didn't get it the previous time. But then again, BiS items are BoE there. And the chances to get something that is hard to get are equal for everyone. Never in hell would the devs hand out BiS weapons to decent players for some time and then lock them behind impossible odds for everyone else who doesn't have them yet in a later patch, like ZOS did.

You should really check out BDO to see what a good game looks like.

yodased

There is no such thing as complete randomness in code. A computer game is incapable of creating random. Its psudeorandom and it very well could be created poorly, giving a bias towards lower wanted traits to keep you on that treadmill.

SublimeSparo

Hundreds of runs, 4 more today. Still have yet to pull any Sharpened weapons at all from the chest. Broken as [snip], bored of this [snip] system.
The single Sharpened weapon i have- the resto was from leaderboards and it's the only one that nobody wants in Sharpened.
It's beyond a joke at this point

Personofsecrets

Why are there almost no Werewolf Hide Shields for sale, but so many Akaviri Dragon Guard Shields?

Why did the drop rate of tons of items suddenly go down in an extreme way during the patch 1.3 to 1.4 transition?

Why do players loot the same Motif page and Agility ring in chest after chest after chest in IC?

BECAUSE LOOT IS NOT TOTALLY RANDOM.

Personofsecrets

LegendaryArcher wrote: »

We have a guild in Black Desert with 26 players that quit ESO solely because of not getting their vMA weapons after hundreds of runs (almost 50 ex-ESO players overall that quit for various reasons). 3 of them didn't get a single inferno after 1000+ runs. Overall, I know 6 people that didn't get their inferno after 1000+ runs, but the other 3 didn't want to come with us to BDO.

BDO has a "bad luck protection" system implemented in its RNG. Chances increase to get a certain item on the next roll when you didn't get it the previous time. But then again, BiS items are BoE there. And the chances to get something that is hard to get are equal for everyone. Never in hell would the devs hand out BiS weapons to decent players for some time and then lock them behind impossible odds for everyone else who doesn't have them yet in a later patch, like ZOS did.

You should really check out BDO to see what a good game looks like.

Thank you @ZOS_RichLambert . Your special single-player dungeon is really energizing the player base!

You do know that even Diablo 3 has systems in place, such as trait reforging, to prevent players from hating playing the game. You know that, right?

Personofsecrets

@ZOS_RichLambert ,

At least if you are going to create tremendous barriers to entry into the endgame, then give players a known path to bypass that barrier. I'm talking token system or, even better, crown store sales on vMA weapons.

SublimeSparo

I just tried to calculate the probability of that happening and its so close to zero even google calculator cant calculate the number of zeros involved lol

hrothbern

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

I'm just wondering, is RNG as random as we all think it is? I'm starting to notice patterns of sorts in trial-based content and VMA.

For example, I've never received any Vicious Serpent rings when looting 12-man content bosses (everyone I ran with just passed them to me). And in VMA, I've never seen any ice staves or lightning staves. It wasn't until a few couple of months ago (1 or 2 I think), that I received my first destruction staff (nirnhoned inferno). And I know people who are in similar situations or worse.

Like for example, I know some people who've never seen a Maelstrom's Axe or Dagger in the final chest before. Or restoration Staff. And they've done hundreds of runs. In fact, I read here on the forums that there's someone who's on their 800th-something run — but has NEVER seen an inferno staff in that last chest. Surely there's more to it, I'd like to believe. And honestly? I believe there's a pattern.

The pattern, I think lies within our character data. Meaning, each character has its own set of data in regards to drops. And whenever things match-up, a certain drop is given. However! Certain characters have lesser chance to get things, to the point of them completely missing from their loot tables via character data.

That's the only explanation I can see for people having such "bad luck". We have to remember, RNG is something coded. And if something is coded, things can go wrong or have things missing. As a fellow programmer, I make mistakes here and there myself. So what's stopping that from being the case, and having some character values being missing to prevent certain drops from appearing — or appearing too frequently?

@Ch4mpTW
IF ZOS uses repeating RNG tables like a big deck of cards,
instead of a true RNG, like a dice,
you can very well be right !
And because writing a perfect program that simulates a multi-facetted dice is impossible (!), a true RNG, like rolling a dice a couple of times, would as best practical solution have to exist out of a multitude of independant RNG tables.
If somehow, from the structural logic or a coding glitch, those RNG tables are not 100% independant, you can get deviations, including deviations up to the level of a character or account.

and difficult to trace, unless there are really big deviations.
ZOS will for sure test modules in her RNG system.
But by that you cannot spot interdependancy between modules.
If ZOS does a totatility test ? IDK.

FriedEggSandwich

It's random. The first sharpened staff I received was an ice staff, but I've never had a lightening staff. Everyone has different stories of what they've got from vma and that should be proof enough that it's random. You notice patterns because the human mind is really good at spotting patterns, we strive to make sense of random.

Ch4mpTW

yodased wrote: »

There is no such thing as complete randomness in code. A computer game is incapable of creating random. Its psudeorandom and it very well could be created poorly, giving a bias towards lower wanted traits to keep you on that treadmill.

Personofsecrets wrote: »

Why are there almost no Werewolf Hide Shields for sale, but so many Akaviri Dragon Guard Shields?

Why did the drop rate of tons of items suddenly go down in an extreme way during the patch 1.3 to 1.4 transition?

Why do players loot the same Motif page and Agility ring in chest after chest after chest in IC?

BECAUSE LOOT IS NOT TOTALLY RANDOM.

That's what I'm saying. People can swear out that it's all "random", but it's not. It can't be. Certain items and item types clearly have much lower drop-rates than other items. Or, the speculation about certain accounts/characters having predetermined loot is the case. It's that simple. Those are the only logical explanations to why the loot distribution is the way it is.

SublimeSparo

Calculations
Edit: disregard tired wrong maths see below for corrections

reesenorman

I was super excited about a week go when I first beat vMA and I could start farming it for weapons. Except after 8 runs I was met with 4 Sword and Shields, 2 bows, lightening and resto staff. I am all of a sudden less inclined to do vMA when I get 4 sword and boards in a row.

FriedEggSandwich

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

yodased wrote: »

There is no such thing as complete randomness in code. A computer game is incapable of creating random. Its psudeorandom and it very well could be created poorly, giving a bias towards lower wanted traits to keep you on that treadmill.

Personofsecrets wrote: »

Why are there almost no Werewolf Hide Shields for sale, but so many Akaviri Dragon Guard Shields?

Why did the drop rate of tons of items suddenly go down in an extreme way during the patch 1.3 to 1.4 transition?

Why do players loot the same Motif page and Agility ring in chest after chest after chest in IC?

BECAUSE LOOT IS NOT TOTALLY RANDOM.

That's what I'm saying. People can swear out that it's all "random", but it's not. It can't be. Certain items and item types clearly have much lower drop-rates than other items. Or, the speculation about certain accounts/characters having predetermined loot is the case. It's that simple. Those are the only logical explanations to why the loot distribution is the way it is.

It will seem like the items you want have a lower drop rate because you really want them to drop so you notice more when they don't. Logically it has to be random; why would zos want to weight it when they believe their system is balanced? What I mean by that is they overhauled traits to try to make them all desirable, why would they then give sharpened a lower drop rate?

SublimeSparo

I'm not saying it's done intentionally (at least i hope not) but it does seem to be broken. It almost seems like charged takes the place of Sharpened in my chest loot pool. I have every single weapon in charged

Ch4mpTW

SublimeSparo wrote: »

Calculations
The chance of getting any sharpened weapon after x runs
Chance of any weapon with Sharpened dropping = 0.125
Number of runs = x

So 1-(0.125^x) = probability

Let x = 10 runs

1-(0.125^10) = 0.99999999906 chance for Sharpened to drop after 10 runs

Let x = 50

1-(0.125^50) = here's where google cant hack it, it replies with 1, implying that it's a certainty

Well, I did VMA twice today. The loot I received was a sharpened bow, and sharpened restoration staff. Neither of which being what I wanted. Lol.

Also, I think there's definitely something off with ZOS' calculations then. Otherwise, how are some people in the 800+ clear range, and have never even seen an inferno staff in that last chest? Or any particular weapon (regardless of the trait). And speaking of traits, there's a gentleman in this very thread who has never even pulled a sharpened weapon before. All the while they've done hundreds of runs.

Something is definitely up. What exactly, I have no idea. But, I definitely know it. I just can't quite put my finger on it.

SublimeSparo

Just realised i was inputting the equation wrong lol let me redo them

So (1-0.125)^x = probability to not get item with 0.125 drop rate

Let x = 10 runs

(1-0.125)^10 = 0.26 = 26% chance for Sharpened to not drop after 10 runs

Let x = 50

(1-0.125)^50 = 0.001 = 0.1% chance for Sharpened to not drop after 50 runs

Let x= 100

(1-0.125)^100 = 0.00000158783 = 0.000158783% chance for Sharpened to not drop after 100 runs




The odds of pulling any inferno are slightly different


1/12 = 0.083

So
For 10 runs

(1-0.083)^10 = 0.42 = 42% chance to not pull an inferno in 10 runs

For 100

(1-0.083)^100 = 0.00017255739 = 0.018% chance to not pull an inferno in 100 runs

For 500

(1-0.83)^500 = 1.5299169e-19 = 1.5e-17% chance

For 1000
2.3406456e-38 = 2.3e-36

RAGUNAnoOne

Personofsecrets wrote: »

@ZOS_RichLambert ,

At least if you are going to create tremendous barriers to entry into the endgame, then give players a known path to bypass that barrier. I'm talking token system or, even better, crown store sales on vMA weapons.

OH *** NO if the only way to bypass this bull*** RNG barrier is to pay real money that will be the last straw for me!

hrothbern

SublimeSparo wrote: »

Calculations
The chance of getting any sharpened weapon after x runs
Chance of any weapon with Sharpened dropping = 0.125
Number of runs = x

So 1-(0.125^x) = probability

Let x = 10 runs

1-(0.125^10) = 0.99999999906 chance for Sharpened to drop after 10 runs

Let x = 50

1-(0.125^50) = here's where google cant hack it, it replies with 1, implying that it's a certainty

@SublimeSparo ,
I'll help you
You need to shift two brackets in your formular

If the chance of getting a Sharpened Weapon is 0.125
The chance of NOT getting a Sharpened Weapon is (1-0.125)
With x as number of runs
The chance of NOT getting a Sharpened Weapon after x runs is: (1-0.125)^x

For x=10: (1-0.125)^10 = 0.263076 or roughly 26%
For x=50: (1-0.125)^50 = 0.001260 or roughly 0.12%

SublimeSparo

hrothbern wrote: »

SublimeSparo wrote: »

Calculations
The chance of getting any sharpened weapon after x runs
Chance of any weapon with Sharpened dropping = 0.125
Number of runs = x

So 1-(0.125^x) = probability

Let x = 10 runs

1-(0.125^10) = 0.99999999906 chance for Sharpened to drop after 10 runs

Let x = 50

1-(0.125^50) = here's where google cant hack it, it replies with 1, implying that it's a certainty

@SublimeSparo ,
I'll help you
You need to shift two brackets in your formular

If the chance of getting a Sharpened Weapon is 0.125
The chance of NOT getting a Sharpened Weapon is (1-0.125)
With x as number of runs
The chance of NOT getting a Sharpened Weapon after x runs is: (1-0.125)^x

For x=10: (1-0.125)^10 = 0.263076 or roughly 25%
For x=50: (1-0.125)^50 = 0.001260 or roughly 0.12%

Yea i'm tired lol i already realised i ballsed up the math and corrected it up above, cheers though

Pinja

My Myth. It's completely rigged off your character & gameplay. You want BIS end game gear you either have to make leaderboards, get really lucky, or play a different character.
Had guildis clime a mountain several hundred of times on a stam to get BIS Magic. I clime same mountain as a magic, get BIS stam. All bound.

SublimeSparo

Pinja wrote: »

My Myth. It's completely rigged off your character & gameplay. You want BIS end game gear you either have to make leaderboards, get really lucky, or play a different character.
Had guildis clime a mountain several hundred of times on a stam to get BIS Magic. I clime same mountain as a magic, get BIS stam. All bound.

I have made leaderboards plenty of times- still crap rewards, swords and shields, bows and restos are by far most common rewards.
I have farmed it on 7 different chars, every class/ stat combo bar magplar and still nothing decent