Bug for Chef Arquitius's Lost Thesis

Maggusemm · April 26

''We have increased the chances of obtaining Chef Arquitius's Lost Thesis. However, it is still rare to acquire.''

This item has not been on the market for months. The droprate increase didnt work. Can you please look on this?

Major_Mangle · April 26

Improving drop rate from 0% to twice x 0% is still 0 (obviously not 0% drop rate on the item but you get the point)

Pinja · April 29

Major_Mangle wrote: »

Improving drop rate from 0% to twice x 0% is still 0 (obviously not 0% drop rate on the item but you get the point)

Imagine if the drop rate for the thesis is written in long while the RNG uses int.

Maggusemm · April 29

it would be great if such items would drop at least once a day or every second day when players play thousands of battlegrounds.

The drop rate at the moment is bugged

RealLoveBVB · April 29

Maggusemm wrote: »

it would be great if such items would drop at least once a day or every second day when players play thousands of battlegrounds.

The drop rate at the moment is bugged

What makes you think the numbers are that high?

I heard the drop rate is similar to aetheric dust. Now count yourself, how many times you found that dust and how many nodes it required.

Now use that numbers on battleground matches and also keep in mind, that a thesis can only drop from a champions reward, which are given out from victories.

With queue-times and long lasting matches I would say you can play 4-5 matches per hour. Now imagine how many resource nodes you could loot in that hour. Maybe 200? And you would pretty sure not receive a dust with them. Now you can compare, why there aren't any thesis on the market.

Maggusemm · April 29

yeah, this confirms that the drop rate is way too low. People potentially couldnt acquire this item in a lifetime spending all hours on battlegrounds.

So the droprate needs to be increased significantly.

Thumbless_Bot · April 29

Maggusemm wrote: »

yeah, this confirms that the drop rate is way too low. People potentially couldnt acquire this item in a lifetime spending all hours on battlegrounds.

So the droprate needs to be increased significantly.

I disagree. If they increase the drop rate, then I'll finally get it... and then I will have exhausted literally every last reason I have to queue for bgs... we can't have that... not yet anyway.

Kaelthorn_Nightbloom · April 29

Fewer players in Battlegrounds means less drops.

Maggusemm · May 3

there are a lot of battlegrounds going on. You find nearly for every day and nighttime the possibility to play 8 vs 8.

It cannot be that this item does only drop once in a month. It should drop like daily taken the amount of battlegrounds into account

CameraBeardThePirate · May 5

Maggusemm wrote: »

there are a lot of battlegrounds going on. You find nearly for every day and nighttime the possibility to play 8 vs 8.

It cannot be that this item does only drop once in a month. It should drop like daily taken the amount of battlegrounds into account

That's not really how statistics work. Millions of people buy lottery tickets and drawings happen frequently with 0 winners.

The drop chance is exceedingly low, even after the buff. On average, a player would have to open thousands of boxes to ever see a drop. If the chance is 0.001%, opening 1000 boxes is still less than a 1% chance of getting a drop. Even if the chance was 10 times better than that, you'd still have less than a 10% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes.

I'm one of the lucky few to have gotten this drop, and I've played BGs religiously for years, likely in the upper end of boxes opened out of all players on the server and I've still only seen it once. Thats not a bug, it's just how statistics work.

danko355 · May 5

CameraBeardThePirate wrote: »

Maggusemm wrote: »

there are a lot of battlegrounds going on. You find nearly for every day and nighttime the possibility to play 8 vs 8.

It cannot be that this item does only drop once in a month. It should drop like daily taken the amount of battlegrounds into account

That's not really how statistics work. Millions of people buy lottery tickets and drawings happen frequently with 0 winners.

The drop chance is exceedingly low, even after the buff. On average, a player would have to open thousands of boxes to ever see a drop. If the chance is 0.001%, opening 1000 boxes is still less than a 1% chance of getting a drop. Even if the chance was 10 times better than that, you'd still have less than a 10% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes.

I'm one of the lucky few to have gotten this drop, and I've played BGs religiously for years, likely in the upper end of boxes opened out of all players on the server and I've still only seen it once. Thats not a bug, it's just how statistics work.

So it drops from a purple reward box, not directly sent to you via mail with other rewards?

CameraBeardThePirate · May 5

danko355 wrote: »

CameraBeardThePirate wrote: »

Maggusemm wrote: »

there are a lot of battlegrounds going on. You find nearly for every day and nighttime the possibility to play 8 vs 8.

It cannot be that this item does only drop once in a month. It should drop like daily taken the amount of battlegrounds into account

That's not really how statistics work. Millions of people buy lottery tickets and drawings happen frequently with 0 winners.

The drop chance is exceedingly low, even after the buff. On average, a player would have to open thousands of boxes to ever see a drop. If the chance is 0.001%, opening 1000 boxes is still less than a 1% chance of getting a drop. Even if the chance was 10 times better than that, you'd still have less than a 10% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes.

I'm one of the lucky few to have gotten this drop, and I've played BGs religiously for years, likely in the upper end of boxes opened out of all players on the server and I've still only seen it once. Thats not a bug, it's just how statistics work.

So it drops from a purple reward box, not directly sent to you via mail with other rewards?

Yes, it drops from a Battlegrounds Box.

katanagirl1 · May 5

CameraBeardThePirate wrote: »

Maggusemm wrote: »

there are a lot of battlegrounds going on. You find nearly for every day and nighttime the possibility to play 8 vs 8.

It cannot be that this item does only drop once in a month. It should drop like daily taken the amount of battlegrounds into account

That's not really how statistics work. Millions of people buy lottery tickets and drawings happen frequently with 0 winners.

The drop chance is exceedingly low, even after the buff. On average, a player would have to open thousands of boxes to ever see a drop. If the chance is 0.001%, opening 1000 boxes is still less than a 1% chance of getting a drop. Even if the chance was 10 times better than that, you'd still have less than a 10% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes.

I'm one of the lucky few to have gotten this drop, and I've played BGs religiously for years, likely in the upper end of boxes opened out of all players on the server and I've still only seen it once. Thats not a bug, it's just how statistics work.

A 0.001% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes is a 0.001% chance each time you open a box. it is not cumulative.

CameraBeardThePirate · May 6

katanagirl1 wrote: »

CameraBeardThePirate wrote: »

Maggusemm wrote: »

there are a lot of battlegrounds going on. You find nearly for every day and nighttime the possibility to play 8 vs 8.

It cannot be that this item does only drop once in a month. It should drop like daily taken the amount of battlegrounds into account

That's not really how statistics work. Millions of people buy lottery tickets and drawings happen frequently with 0 winners.

The drop chance is exceedingly low, even after the buff. On average, a player would have to open thousands of boxes to ever see a drop. If the chance is 0.001%, opening 1000 boxes is still less than a 1% chance of getting a drop. Even if the chance was 10 times better than that, you'd still have less than a 10% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes.

I'm one of the lucky few to have gotten this drop, and I've played BGs religiously for years, likely in the upper end of boxes opened out of all players on the server and I've still only seen it once. Thats not a bug, it's just how statistics work.

A 0.001% chance of getting a drop with 1000 boxes is a 0.001% chance each time you open a box. it is not cumulative.

Well yes, the math is more complicated than adding it together cumulatively, but that's not what I did to get that number. I never said it was cumulative.

You use the formula 1 - (1 - p)^n, with p being the probability of success on a single independent try (.00001 in our case, or 0.001%) and n is the number of attempts (1000 in the example i used).

1 - (1 - .00001)^1000 is slightly less than 1% (0.0099502 or about 0.995%).

Bringing it back to the Lost Thesis, since you can only get a BG Box once per day (per character), you could go 1000 days in a row playing BGs (on a single toon) and still have less than a 1% chance of getting the drop. Playing a BG on 10 characters every day for a thousand days straight (i.e., 10000 attempts) would still be only a 9.52% chance you get the drop. Thats of course assuming the drop rate is 0.001%, which for all we know it could be anything, but would have to be somewhere in this realm considering the low amount of Lost Thesis drops that have ever hit the server.

Maggusemm · May 9

well, as you have written and to what we see on the market - > there are no drops.

So the drop rate should be increased by at least factor 10-100.

RealLoveBVB · May 9

Maggusemm wrote: »

well, as you have written and to what we see on the market - > there are no drops.

So the drop rate should be increased by at least factor 10-100.

Just because there aren't any on the market doesn't mean they don't drop.
Someone who got it, learned it most likely.

Besides that: the thesis is usually traded directly, as you would lose way to many gold (taxes to zos) when putting it in the guild store.
I saw several offers on trading discords, where this recipe was offered.

And once again: the less players are playing bgs, the less drops. And BGs are most likely the least played content in ESO.

CameraBeardThePirate · May 13

Maggusemm wrote: »

well, as you have written and to what we see on the market - > there are no drops.

So the drop rate should be increased by at least factor 10-100.

Yah echoing what RealLove said, listings on guild traders (or lack thereof) mean nothing for items this expensive. No one is going to want to sell something this expensive on a guild store because you end up having to pay a ton in fees just to even list it, and end up losing some of the sale to the guild store. When I dropped it, I just advertised in zone and sold it directly.

BixenteN7Akantor · May 13

I find it weird so many people defend the abysmal drop rate of the Lost Thesis...
I don't even think increasing it by a tenfold is enough, this item is way, way too rare for what it is.
Therefore, please ZOS increase its drop rate, thank you

CameraBeardThePirate · May 15

BixenteN7Akantor wrote: »

I find it weird so many people defend the abysmal drop rate of the Lost Thesis...
I don't even think increasing it by a tenfold is enough, this item is way, way too rare for what it is.
Therefore, please ZOS increase its drop rate, thank you

I don't see anyone defending it outside of a clear joke comment by Thumbless, but at the same time, I feel like we're making a mountain out of a mole hill. It's a pretty useless recipe; the difference between it and the 100% increase really isn't that much, and the market for buying the 150% war tortes is incredibly small.

AP is generally pretty worthless, so while I'm not gonna sit here and say it's a good thing the recipe is as rare as it is, it really doesn't matter that it's rare because the recipe itself is kinda pointless.

katanagirl1 · May 15

CameraBeardThePirate wrote: »

BixenteN7Akantor wrote: »

I find it weird so many people defend the abysmal drop rate of the Lost Thesis...
I don't even think increasing it by a tenfold is enough, this item is way, way too rare for what it is.
Therefore, please ZOS increase its drop rate, thank you

I don't see anyone defending it outside of a clear joke comment by Thumbless, but at the same time, I feel like we're making a mountain out of a mole hill. It's a pretty useless recipe; the difference between it and the 100% increase really isn't that much, and the market for buying the 150% war tortes is incredibly small.

AP is generally pretty worthless, so while I'm not gonna sit here and say it's a good thing the recipe is as rare as it is, it really doesn't matter that it's rare because the recipe itself is kinda pointless.

It’s not useless if you like to earn the purple and gold recipes for your character. I have the other two torte recipes learned and would like the third as well. At the very least, it increases your chance of provisioning master writs.

Maggusemm · May 16

Is there any communication by PTS notes to increase drop rates significantly? Didnt see any?

Would really make sense to increase drop rate tenfold or more

Maggusemm · June 1

in the meantime - there have been literally zero offers on the market for this.

Can you please look at the droprates?

RealLoveBVB · June 1

Offers on the market is your indicator about the drop chance?
Once again: as the thesis costs several hundred millions, you are paying way too much fees and taxes to put it on the trader- especially now, that listing's only last 14 days.

One of my trading guild member bought on for 150k only tho.
And the 5 players who regularly play BGs is simply not enough for a drop too.

CameraBeardThePirate · June 2

Maggusemm wrote: »

in the meantime - there have been literally zero offers on the market for this.

Can you please look at the droprates?

No one lists items that expensive on the trader, they sell it via Zone Chat.

Maggusemm · June 3

yes, thats a sign thats too rare. The drop rate is just ridiculous low.
If an item costs several hundred million, the drop rate is too low. Thats clear and you proved it by your answers.

RealLoveBVB · June 3

Maggusemm wrote: »

yes, thats a sign thats too rare. The drop rate is just ridiculous low.
If an item costs several hundred million, the drop rate is too low. Thats clear and you proved it by your answers.

They said it's as rare as aetherial dust. Now compare several thousand players harvesting nodes and dropping the dust and the 30 players playing BGs.
The drop rate is the same, just a small amount of players would trigger the thesis.
Get some thousand players into BGs and you will see several Recipes for 150k gold too.

CameraBeardThePirate · June 6

RealLoveBVB wrote: »

Maggusemm wrote: »

yes, thats a sign thats too rare. The drop rate is just ridiculous low.
If an item costs several hundred million, the drop rate is too low. Thats clear and you proved it by your answers.

They said it's as rare as aetherial dust. Now compare several thousand players harvesting nodes and dropping the dust and the 30 players playing BGs.
The drop rate is the same, just a small amount of players would trigger the thesis.
Get some thousand players into BGs and you will see several Recipes for 150k gold too.

This.

Look at Hakeijos before the economy tanked. They were selling for nearly 100k gold, even though 5k TelVar only takes about 15 minutes tops to get for a PvPer.

PvP sourced items are always going to be more expensive because the portion of the playerbase that PvPs frequently and regularly is comparatively tiny.

Same reason why Powerful Assault frost staves sold for millions for the longest time. They weren't even remotely rare, you just had to go to a PvP zone to get them.

Combine an actually rare item with a PvP requirement and you get an exceedingly expensive price tag.

Djennku · June 7

Regardless of what we think of the actual drop rate (and the actual amount of people who play pvp), this item is exceedingly rare, and hardly anyone in game actually owns one, the complete recipe, or has a character that has learned it.

What I would like to see is either an increase in drop rate, or, like many other exceedingly rare things (ie. Aetheric cipher) an alternate drop source even if temporary like an event, so that more people can have access to them.

I hate this concept some people have of things needing to be rare or restricred in some way, so that they can feel special being one of only a few who obtained it and no one else can. I personally believe that the more people that have access to things, the healthier the game is in the long run.

That's not to say that everything should be handed to the players on a silver platter, because ESO is an MMO, and the grind is part and parcel of it. And I also know that other mmos can take a year or more of constant grinding to get to a point where you get just a fraction of a percent chance for your collectable to drop, and then another whole year to try again. I also know ESO is the least grindy of any mmo out there.

I just personally would love to have some more opporotunities to collect this recipe, because I am a completionist, or at least as much as I can be in ESO.