Solstice daily reward coffers seem not to drop motif pages properly

tyrfing666 · July 23

Yesterday I opened 20 coffers and zero Tide-Born pages dropped even though the 20 hour cooldown had expired.

I had 20 boxes to open because I had some left over from the previous day (I have seven characters).

Is this a bug? Have the rules been changed for this reward coffer?

code65536 · July 23

tyrfing666 wrote: »

Yesterday I opened 20 coffers and zero Tide-Born pages dropped even though the 20 hour cooldown had expired.

I had 20 boxes to open because I had some left over from the previous day (I have seven characters).

Is this a bug? Have the rules been changed for this reward coffer?

There are no 20-hour cooldowns in this game, and there hasn't been one in years. The cooldown is reset when daily quests are reset each day, not when 20 hours have elapsed.

tyrfing666 · July 23

I use the Item Cooldown Tracker add-on to track cooldowns and it said it had cooled down.

The point is that I got a page on Monday and stopped opening the coffers.

Then yesterday, presumably after the daily quests were reset (I was able to perform them again on all characters) I started opening coffers again.
Twenty boxes later, zero pages. Which I suppose is possible even with the increased chance, but it's really unlikely.

Other boxes seem to have about a one in three chance of a page with the increased drop rate. If they reduce the drop rate after a page drop by a factor of 10 (to one in thirty) then that would account for the behavior I've seen in the past.

But opening twenty boxes in a row with a one in three drop rate and having no drops? The odds of that are about 0.03%.

So either the drop rate has been drastically reduced, or the mechanism for drops has changed.

Or it's a bug and it used the reduced drop rate yesterday for all the boxes.

tyrfing666 · July 25

Note this is PC NA server.

redlink1979 · July 26

code65536 wrote: »

There are no 20-hour cooldowns in this game, and there hasn't been one in years. (...)

A cooldown (per account) was implemented a shortwhile after Southern Elsweyr's release but, upon release you could get several drops per day from Northern Elsweyr n Southern Elsweyr motifs (you couldn't get all motifs because motifs were released on different dates, ie, Shields of Senchal had already a cooldown when it was released but Dragonguard hadn't cooldown when it was released)

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/7225388#Comment_7225388

Besides thr cooldownn, you can't never forget the inherent rng factor in drops @tyrfing666

tyrfing666 · July 27

Sure there's RNG.

Twenty boxes in a row with no drop though?

Even if the chance of a drop has been lowered to 10% from the 30% or so that it's been for daily quest reward motif drops in past years, there's still only a 12% chance of that happening.

Oh, and 10% means you would almost certainly not finish out the motif page book by the time you got the 30x delve and WB achievements.

And I would expect that if this had been the case all along the prices for pages for sale at guild traders would be much higher than they are.

No, I think something's gone sideways with the last patch update. I had previously gotten a page after 4 boxes and 3 boxes opened each day. There was a downtime for maintenance; when it came back up suddenly I can't get any.

code65536 · July 27

tyrfing666 wrote: »

Sure there's RNG.

Twenty boxes in a row with no drop though?

I used to keep a spreadsheet of how long it took me each day to get a motif page; I didn't bother to do in this year or last year, but I did for the three years prior. And looking at that spreadsheet, my worst day was one where I finally got the motif on the 16th box. Not quite 20, sure but let's see just how bad 20 is.

The accumulated data from this spreadsheet (well over 1000 boxes over multiple years/chapters) paints a very clear picture that the expected drop rate is 1-in-4, or 25%.

So the chances of getting nothing 20 times in a row would be (1-0.25)^20 = 0.31%.

Imagine if 10000 players farmed boxes and opened them until they got their page for the day, then you'd expect there to be around 31 players who, after 20 boxes, still wouldn't have gotten their daily motif. "Low probability" does not mean "impossible".

katanagirl1 · July 27

It’s even worse with the structural furnishing plans. That is why they are so expensive in guild traders.

EDIT: I just spend over 2 mil gold on two purple Necrom structural furnishing plans that I did not have. They are that rare.
EDIT2: that was on console, PS NA

tyrfing666 · July 29

Well after all that I opened two boxes the day before yesterday and got a page.

Then yesterday, I got a page on the first box I opened. Though it was a page I already had (of the three out of fourteen).

I guess I was just really unlucky.

code65536 · July 29

tyrfing666 wrote: »

I guess I was just really unlucky.

Remember out of 10000 people, there will be about 31 who would've been just as unlucky. That's better than most lottery odds.