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Experiencing cheat engine for the 1st time
-
Skwor✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
Well You failed to prove it isn't. As for now from the thread that is linked we know that certain addon files can corrupt proc triggering mechanic and disable it. There is no proff You can artificially edit code fragment responsible for frag proc chance and increase it or make it guaranteed. We just know that proc mechanic can be disabled which means part of the code responsible for it wont work. It's like saying that when You're falling down from height You dont touch the ground and You move vertically so it proves You can also fly up. Context matters.
You do not understand packet injection. Yes 100% procing can be done from the client.
Any proff or just "I know it's possible because I know it's possible" ? I want a proff providing reliable data that when You'll edit part of code on client side responsible for that action then server will do what You want. Because for now You can edit lot of things on client side and even see those things on Your screen when on server side those things are not happening and nobody except You experiences them.
LOL do you even know what packet injection is? It specifically allows a person to hack/cheat/edit data not doable via client side hacks
I am very happy You know that definition although Your description is super simplistic. Now please provide reliable data it's possible with crystal frag proc to make is 100% because fact that addon files could disrupt that feature is not that proff.
I never made that claim. I only point out it is wrong to imply the client side data cannot be manipulated. Which you seem to be doing with all your blather on how " we only know procing can be disruted" or the client screen data does not mean server receives the data stuff.
Also I kept my description simple becuase that was all that was needed to show it is wrong to imply the server cannot be effectively hacked via false data.1 -
Juhasow✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
Well You failed to prove it isn't. As for now from the thread that is linked we know that certain addon files can corrupt proc triggering mechanic and disable it. There is no proff You can artificially edit code fragment responsible for frag proc chance and increase it or make it guaranteed. We just know that proc mechanic can be disabled which means part of the code responsible for it wont work. It's like saying that when You're falling down from height You dont touch the ground and You move vertically so it proves You can also fly up. Context matters.
You do not understand packet injection. Yes 100% procing can be done from the client.
Any proff or just "I know it's possible because I know it's possible" ? I want a proff providing reliable data that when You'll edit part of code on client side responsible for that action then server will do what You want. Because for now You can edit lot of things on client side and even see those things on Your screen when on server side those things are not happening and nobody except You experiences them.
LOL do you even know what packet injection is? It specifically allows a person to hack/cheat/edit data not doable via client side hacks
I am very happy You know that definition although Your description is super simplistic. Now please provide reliable data it's possible with crystal frag proc to make is 100% because fact that addon files could disrupt that feature is not that proff.
I never made that claim. I only point out it is wrong to imply the client side data cannot be manipulated. Which you seem to be doing with all your blather on how " we only know procing can be disruted" or the client screen data does not mean server receives the data stuff.
Also I kept my description simple becuase that was all that was needed to show it is wrong to imply the server cannot be effectively hacked via false data.
I never said that client side data cannot be manipulated. I perfectly know it can. I just said that linked forum thread is not a proff that proc frag can be manipulated. These days fact that certain part of client side data can be corrupted or even manipulated in certain ways isnt instantly prove that all connected features can be manipulated by packet injection and send to server that way to gain results You want.
Implying that because packet injection exist and frag proccing can be disabled through interractions with addon files is far from proving packet injection can actually artificially make auto procced frags and server will accept that data. It's pure speculation in case of frag.
Also I still say that getting 5 frag proc in a row is possible simply by being lucky and getting those procs normal way without any manipulations. Instantly claiming that somebody is cheating because he hit someone with 5 frags in a row and then saying about any data that this is proff for that is silly.0 -
Thogard✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭ruikkarikun wrote: »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltC4relESCY
https://www.rf-cheats.ru/forum/showthread.php?t=351291
So after this someone still believe teso don't have cheats?
That russian forum, topic about that cheat, last update is MAY and ppl write there it works, he selling it and they buying it.
HOW YOU CAN SAY ANYTHING NOW WHEN YOU HAVE PROOFS?????????????
Have You seen anyone in this thread claiming that there is definietly no cheating in ESO ? Most people here is perfectly aware that cheating is possible and exist but they're also aware very often people scream "cheater cheater" just because they lack understanding of the game so most of the things looks like a cheating for them especially if it happens when they loose to someone. Main topic is about person that supposedly got hit with 5 frags in 12 seconds and that is possible without cheating.
Cheating is certainly possible.
It’s the type of cheating that is suspect.
I’ve said it before and I’ve said it again - any variable that’s stored client side is hackable. Any variable that’s stored server side ISNT.
99% of cheat accusations are of server side variables. That’s why I don’t take them seriously.
But accusations of client side variable cheating, like this one, I do take seriously because I know that it is possible, even if it’s unlikely.PC NA - @dazkt - Dazk Ardoonkt / Sir Thogalot / Dask Dragoh’t / Dazk Dragoh’t / El Thogardo
Stream: twitch.tv/THOGARDvsThePeasants
YouTube: http://youtube.com/c/thogardpvp2 -
HalvarIronfist✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »I know macro is very common, met less than a dozen scripters (auto break free, auto dodge) in the last 2 year.
But today i encountered a guy cheating so blatantly I've never seen b4, guy just curse and frag is always ready after every curse.
This has to be a result of modify game files. On top of perfect weave, instant break free ofc.
Zos deal with these cheaters, actually ban them, also the no name and shame policy is stupid AF.
It is protecting the criminals.
Are you the guy I was in a battleground with yesterday who accused a nightblade of cheating for using cloak?
(I know it's not actually you. But that did happen. CP 500+ guy called hacks on a NB for cloak..)0 -
rfennell_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭ruikkarikun wrote: »https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltC4relESCY
https://www.rf-cheats.ru/forum/showthread.php?t=351291
So after this someone still believe teso don't have cheats?
That russian forum, topic about that cheat, last update is MAY and ppl write there it works, he selling it and they buying it.
HOW YOU CAN SAY ANYTHING NOW WHEN YOU HAVE PROOFS?????????????
Have You seen anyone in this thread claiming that there is definietly no cheating in ESO ? Most people here is perfectly aware that cheating is possible and exist but they're also aware very often people scream "cheater cheater" just because they lack understanding of the game so most of the things looks like a cheating for them especially if it happens when they loose to someone. Main topic is about person that supposedly got hit with 5 frags in 12 seconds and that is possible without cheating.
Cheating is certainly possible.
It’s the type of cheating that is suspect.
I’ve said it before and I’ve said it again - any variable that’s stored client side is hackable. Any variable that’s stored server side ISNT.
99% of cheat accusations are of server side variables. That’s why I don’t take them seriously.
But accusations of client side variable cheating, like this one, I do take seriously because I know that it is possible, even if it’s unlikely.
I'm certain that actual cheating isn't 1% of accusations.
Even if it were, just it's existence lends to people being suspicious of many things.rfennell_ESO wrote: »Waylander07 wrote: »Found this interesting …https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltC4relESCY
Haha, I'd love to see that one explained away.
The ol no clip
As I recall the -noclip users that placed themselves slightly under the world caused animations to accelerate... I don't see that in the video. Basically when they activated it only a portion of the offensive animation would play and you could rapidly spam that animation on them (with no effect). e.g. when someone gets stuck under terrain in cyro, you can rapidly spam a portion of an animation on them and never hit them (the follow thru portion doesn't show).
The OP's contention does seem unlikely at face value... but, then I recall all the obvious dodge hacks. Similar principle, manipulation of a proc chance. Of course that was always explained away as RNG. Obviously it wasn't RNG, it was a manipulation of the chance to dodge (and it was achieved in a number of ways, including not actually using Cheat Engine).
2 -
Bergzorn✭✭✭✭✭
✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.no CP PvP PC/EU
EP Zergborn
DC Zerg Beacon
guild master, raid leader, janitor, and only member of Zergbored0 -
MajBludd✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Wait for the players to come out and say it's impossible to cheat or use macros.
I've seen players using scripted programs. Macros ( they told me they were), and cheat engine or similar hacks (I've known people using them. Just a bit more regen to fly under the radar).
But wait for the naysayers.
Good luck, OP.8 -
Dunning_Kruger✭✭✭✭Imagine taking Ls in 2019 and blaming it on cheaters.____________________________________
A G G R O - the legendary stamplar GM of <HALL MONITORS>
For the Queen bby1 -
Juhasow✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
Ok so You say that if I'll throw a coin lets say 10 times there is 50% chance I'll get tails atleast once because chance to get tails is 50% and each throw is independant from the others ?
For the record that chance is 99,8%. Same goes for that 1% chance event. With enough amount of tries we can come extremly close to 100% chance that it'll happen. This is why people are winning lotteries where chances to win are like 0,000005% or even smaller so 1% doesnt seem so unlikely to happen and chance for that is way higher then 1%.0 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
0 -
Bergzorn✭✭✭✭✭
✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.no CP PvP PC/EU
EP Zergborn
DC Zerg Beacon
guild master, raid leader, janitor, and only member of Zergbored1 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.0 -
Bergzorn✭✭✭✭✭
✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
Edited by Bergzorn on May 10, 2019 5:50PMno CP PvP PC/EU
EP Zergborn
DC Zerg Beacon
guild master, raid leader, janitor, and only member of Zergbored1 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.0 -
Juhasow✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.
It's is funny that You dont understand propability and different types of it to the point You basically proved the point of person You quoted when trying to do opposite lol.2 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.
It's is funny that You dont understand propability and different types of it to the point You basically proved the point of person You quoted when trying to do opposite lol.
Numbers are fixed, probability isn't.0 -
Juhasow✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.
It's is funny that You dont understand propability and different types of it to the point You basically proved the point of person You quoted when trying to do opposite lol.
Numbers are fixed, probability isn't.
Can You elaborate ? Because as I understand now You basically say You've been wrong all that time and You agree with person You've been saying is wrong.
Also You still did not respond on my question about coin throw I asked You few posts earlier.Edited by Juhasow on May 10, 2019 11:58PM2 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.
It's is funny that You dont understand propability and different types of it to the point You basically proved the point of person You quoted when trying to do opposite lol.
Numbers are fixed, probability isn't.
Can You elaborate ? Because as I understand now You basically say You've been wrong all that time and You agree with person You've been saying is wrong.
Also You still did not respond on my question about coin throw I asked You few posts earlier.
Numbers are fixed, means you can do the math and get a reliable statistic. Probability is not fixed, means that there is an unknown variables that adds a random factor. That's why in a statistic result people normally add a +/- to the end result.
A coin for example has a 50/50 chance for a result. Flipping a coin 10 and you can get a 5/5 result fairly common, flipping a coin 100 times and getting a 50/50 result is a little less. Flipping a coin 1000 times and the chance for a 500/500 is even less again and so on. The more attempts at any given chance increases the +/- error of margin until they balance out.
Your example of the coin flip is not a good metaphor. Having a result in a specific heads or tails is not the same as getting 5 procs in a row. Getting the a coin flip to give the same result 5 times in a row would be a better metaphor.Edited by Ackwalan on May 11, 2019 2:43AM0 -
Juhasow✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.
It's is funny that You dont understand propability and different types of it to the point You basically proved the point of person You quoted when trying to do opposite lol.
Numbers are fixed, probability isn't.
Can You elaborate ? Because as I understand now You basically say You've been wrong all that time and You agree with person You've been saying is wrong.
Also You still did not respond on my question about coin throw I asked You few posts earlier.
Numbers are fixed, means you can do the math and get a reliable statistic. Probability is not fixed, means that there is an unknown variables that adds a random factor. That's why in a statistic result people normally add a +/- to the end result.
A coin for example has a 50/50 chance for a result. Flipping a coin 10 and you can get a 5/5 result fairly common, flipping a coin 100 times and getting a 50/50 result is a little less. Flipping a coin 1000 times and the chance for a 500/500 is even less again and so on. The more attempts at any given chance increases the +/- error of margin until they balance out.
Your example of the coin flip is not a good metaphor. Having a result in a specific heads or tails is not the same as getting 5 procs in a row. Getting the a coin flip to give the same result 5 times in a row would be a better metaphor.
Well atleast You're funny. You know something about propability but when it comes to practical applications end certain examples You kinda start to confuse different branches of propability.
You are claiming that 5+ procs is hard to get and can be never reached despite many tries ? Here is 5+ frag procs I got while spamming light attack+clench on dummy in less then 20 minutes. Basically during parse on 6M dummy I am getting 5+ procs atleast once per one or two parses. This is because 0,5% chance is still high so events with that 0,5% chance are reaching high propability to occur relatively fast which means with not that many tries needed to cause that events to show up. If You dont belive me feel free to test for Yourself and beat down 6M dummy like 2 times and I almost guarantee You that You'll get 5+ procs atleast once. You are simply using incorrect logic in Your analysis.
5 frag procs in a row (0,5% chance)
6 frag procs in a row (0,2% chance)
8 frags in a row (0,002% chance)
So yeah getting 5 frag procs in a row at certain point of playing simply by "luck" is more then possible , it's almost certain.Edited by Juhasow on May 11, 2019 5:35AM1 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭LeagueTroll wrote: »@Thogard @BuddyAces
Found an interesting piece of evidence to this puzzle in a recent thread. Link below, with the relevant bits starting at post #9:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/6034287/#Comment_6034287
Basically, someone had an issue with their frags completely failing to proc under any circumstances. Subsequentyl, a repair of their game files rectified the issue.
This seems to strongly suggest that the RNG governing the frags proc is handled locally on the client... which raises the possibility that it could be manipulated through hacking.
Thoughts?
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_BrianWheeler Might wanna give this a look, just in case.
Well done, all these ignorant dudes telling me 5 frag in 12 sec is RNG. LOL
I'm just saying it may be technically possible, inferring from the evidence we have. We don't know anything concrete at this point, though.
Besides, 5 frags in a row is a (0.35^5)*100 = 0.5% chance
Otherwise expressed as 1 in 200 odds
Observing that once over months (and possibly years) of PvPing is not hard to believe at all. It could very well be legitimate play.
Actually, it's quite plausible to observe it now and then.
The chance to get five procs in a row is 0.005, so the chance to not to get them is 0.995.
If we assume a very lazy player, who gets only five proc chances per minute, after 100 minutes of playtime the chance not to observe five procs in a row is 0.995^100 (about 60%), and after 1000 minutes its down to 7%. Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not* see five procs in a row.
This are the numbers without cheating. I'm not ruling out that there might also be cheating at work.
The % chance for something to happen is not cumulative. Just because there is a 1% chance to happen does not mean you will get 1 out of every 100 tries. Each chance has no affect on the chance before or after an attempt. So a 1% chance that something may happen may happen today, next year or never.
I'm not sure why you are telling me this, because this is exactly what I used to calculate the probability.
The thing is that 1/200 sounds like a low chance but it actally isn't if you 'roll the dice' a few hundret times.
Your conclusion was incorrect. If there is a 1/200 chance and you have had 199 miss, the 200 roll will still be a 1/200 chance. If you roll the dice a few hundred times each roll does not increase or decrease the next roll. Each roll is still a 1/200 individual chance.
Ok, maybe this is just a language problem, let me respell my conclusion a little bit:
'Thus, after some hours, it's unlikely to *not*have seen five procs in a row during these hours of playtime.
Using a time factor of "some hours" is where the conclusion is inaccurate. "Some hours" could be 10 hours or a 1,000 hours, it is too open ended. If you PvP for a year, a few hours a week, you are more likely to see something like that yet saying it's unlikely to not see it would still be incorrect.
Say, are you trying to troll me? I posted numbers in #117.
Let me make it foolproof. The probability to have seen five CF procs in a row *exactly once* after casting 5x (x being a variable) magica abilities on a bar with CF slotted but no proc already active is y(x)=1-0.995^(x/5).
Some examples:
y(10)=0.05
y(100)=0.4
y(1000)=0.93
y(10000)=1-2*10^-22
These numbers clearly show that it only takes a few hours, not tens or hundreds of hours, to become very unlikely to not see five procs in a row.
Edit: calculated the examples for 5x instead of x, corrected now
I'm not trolling you, I just enjoy how probability math works out. For example; the odds of winning a major State lottery and the odds of getting mauled by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day are nearly identical. People win major State lottery all the time, yet no one has ever been mauled by a brown bear and polar bear on the same day. The math for both results should mean that there should be many lottery winners buying drinks for some poor smuck that got mauled by 2 different bears that live in different areas on the same day.
Just because the math works out that something is possible to proc five times in a row in a fight less the 15 seconds, doesn't mean it will ever happen.
It's is funny that You dont understand propability and different types of it to the point You basically proved the point of person You quoted when trying to do opposite lol.
Numbers are fixed, probability isn't.
Can You elaborate ? Because as I understand now You basically say You've been wrong all that time and You agree with person You've been saying is wrong.
Also You still did not respond on my question about coin throw I asked You few posts earlier.
Numbers are fixed, means you can do the math and get a reliable statistic. Probability is not fixed, means that there is an unknown variables that adds a random factor. That's why in a statistic result people normally add a +/- to the end result.
A coin for example has a 50/50 chance for a result. Flipping a coin 10 and you can get a 5/5 result fairly common, flipping a coin 100 times and getting a 50/50 result is a little less. Flipping a coin 1000 times and the chance for a 500/500 is even less again and so on. The more attempts at any given chance increases the +/- error of margin until they balance out.
Your example of the coin flip is not a good metaphor. Having a result in a specific heads or tails is not the same as getting 5 procs in a row. Getting the a coin flip to give the same result 5 times in a row would be a better metaphor.
Well atleast You're funny. You know something about propability but when it comes to practical applications end certain examples You kinda start to confuse different branches of propability.
You are claiming that 5+ procs is hard to get and can be never reached despite many tries ? Here is 5+ frag procs I got while spamming light attack+clench on dummy in less then 20 minutes. Basically during parse on 6M dummy I am getting 5+ procs atleast once per one or two parses. This is because 0,5% chance is still high so events with that 0,5% chance are reaching high propability to occur relatively fast which means with not that many tries needed to cause that events to show up. If You dont belive me feel free to test for Yourself and beat down 6M dummy like 2 times and I almost guarantee You that You'll get 5+ procs atleast once. You are simply using incorrect logic in Your analysis.
5 frag procs in a row (0,5% chance)
6 frag procs in a row (0,2% chance)
8 frags in a row (0,002% chance)
So yeah getting 5 frag procs in a row at certain point of playing simply by "luck" is more then possible , it's almost certain.
Technically that is getting it to proc within a time period, not proc 5X in a row. Increasing the number of other attacks increases the overall number of procs. The number of attacks per second that result in a proc is only limited by the internal cool down of the code.0 -
f047ys3v3n✭✭✭✭✭
✭You know, threads like this, those with links to videos showing unequivocally cheats in use or links to places people advertised cheats, didn't used to last even 5 min on the forums. They would vanish into thin air as if they had never existed. Frankly, the videos of cheating that were identified as such didn't even used to last very long on youtube before getting a take down notice and disappearing themselves. This behavior seems to have changed in the last month.
Furthermore, there is now this issue with some of the new code on the PTS:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/473249/this-is-gamebreaking-natures-embrace-causes-speedhack-detections-and-locks-chars-out#latest
This issue seems to indicate that there must be some changes to, or tightening of, the server side sanity check on positioning.
I am cautiously optimistic that this indicates ZOS may changing their previously unfathomably dense and totally counterproductive strategy regarding cheats. Hopefully they are moving twords actually trying to detect and punish them from a previous strategy of ignoring the actual cheating and spending their effort on attempting to cover up what was happening. I guess we will find out soon enough. Certainly the magnitude of the cheats on regular display was such that you would have to be pretty ignorant of basic game mechanics and scaling to buy the claims at legitimacy from those who regularly posted videos of their world beating exploits. It was also a pretty rare day when you didn't encounter someone in PVP who took damage better than any tank, hit harder than any dps, fully healed in a single ability cast, and never ran shy of resources.I am currently worried for the future of ESO. Population seems like it is in free fall and the cancellation of the North America in-person gathering feels very much like pulling the plug. Kudos on fixing the in-game economy though. Clearly whatever gold shenanigans were happening the last couple years are fixed.2 -
Bergzorn✭✭✭✭✭
✭@Ackwalan I'm not sure where you got your knowledge. The statements you posted are mostly correct, but you seem to have trouble to apply them. Maybe inform yourself a bit about the 'law of large numbers'. This is, however, more a topic for a lecture instead of a self study, especially when it comes to the implications on real applications with finite sample sizes.
Apart from all this, we still don't know if it's possible to rig the proc chance. The math just shows that you can't be sure if it's cheating or not by just observing someone getting a lucky streak now and then.
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