What are my odds of getting 200 Crown Gems by extracting every single item I can from 15 crates?

Wolfycrash · September 2017

Looking to get a specific legendary reward from Reaper's Harvest Season and I missed out on the free crates, so I'm gonna spend $40 on 15 crown crates and I'm wondering what my odds are of getting 200 gems if I extract every item I possibly can from every crate

FakeFox · September 2017

It's possible, however you have to get quite lucky. I buy 15 crates every season and extract everything I can. First season I got ~120, second season ~320, this season ~95.

eso_nya · September 2017

Doable.
If u get a cosmetic item u dont own, u have to keep it, can't trade in.
So far, the majority of stuff i got from the free ones (1+4+3?) was potions, soulgems, poisons and so. I traded in all i could and got a total of 97 gems. I considered it very lucky, that i only got three items i had to keep: Dragon Face Tattoo, Dragon Body Tattoo and a Nix Hound.
Murphy sais: If u buy the crates in order to get gems, u'll most likely end up with a lot of creepy, ugly creatures that will haunt your collections for forever.

kaorunandrak · September 2017

Really think they should allow us to trade in ALL the items we don't *** want, got a bunch of crap in the free ones that are useless to me, including one of the mounts.

SirGabenOfSteamia · September 2017

Usually I get about 200 from 18. But then again, I'm not very lucky. So it's very possible

JKorr · September 2017

Miss Bizz is the gm of one of my guilds. She really, really wanted a pig.... so she figured out how many crates she'd need to get one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eojQGZsdefM

Eatmyface · September 2017

Haha, murphy's law will bite you.

I managed to get 2 x sheogorath and a BA motif in one lot of 15. That's 99 gems worth right there in three items. But, on average, you're unlikely to get more than another 50 odd from trading in the rest of the trash. And that's if you're lucky enough to not get mounts that you won't be able to convert.

Rohamad_Ali · September 2017

Pacrooti thinks your odd are excellent my friend!

Disclaimer

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zaapWsqE--0

Minyassa · September 2017

Maybe? I got 100 gems from 15 crates just because mostly it was stacks of potions and things that were worth 2 gems, or duplicates of things I already had that were worth 5. But if you listen to that awful Pacrooti of COURSE YOU WILL YOU HAVE A LUCKY AURA.

grr.

WhiteCoatSyndrome · September 2017

Minyassa wrote: »

of COURSE YOU WILL YOU HAVE A LUCKY AURA.

It could be an aura of bad luck.

iiYuki · October 2017

I made over 600 gems from 60 crates if that's anything to go by.

Avran_Sylt · October 2017

Using some info from: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/295049/crown-crates-fair-warning

From a sample of 731 crates it seems that consumables have around a 72% chance of dropping from a crown crate. Assuming that holds to 3/4 cards always being a consumable (ignoring the random 5th card for now), at the most you will need to buy 67 crown crates (3 gems from consumables per crate) to have 200 gems from consumables only, and all collectibles obtained are unique. This is a worst case scenario (and perhaps impossible too, as I don't think the crown crates have 67 unique items).

I would buy a pack of 15, see how many gems you accumulate (or, if you are lucky, you get what you're looking for), and then decide if you want to continue from there.

This is purely from the perspective of going only for gems from a non-unique source at a value of 1gem each. In practice you're much more likely to get the odd XP scroll or what have you that really bumps you up, as well as several duplicates of superior grade collectibles (5gem each)

Ilsabet · October 2017

It'll largely depend on how many of those cosmetic items you already own.

JKorr · October 2017

The more stuff you own already will influence how many gems you get for duplicates. Rng will control how many "consumables" you get, so really no way to tell.

I'd be on the really low side, because there haven't been many costumes/hats/personalities/polymorph things in the store that I liked. Got every senche mount they've offered for sale, but not so much the outfits and hats.....

O_LYKOS · October 2017

pretty slim