Rng Exposed

SolarCat02 · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

Jamini wrote: »

Giles.floydub17_ESO wrote: »

@Ihatenightblades

Weapons have the lowest chance to drop. They compete with shields in the loot table and I believe they only drop from final boss and chests.

They also compete with jewlery, which has a higher chance to drop.

Drop rates for final bosses are approximately (very loose approximations. Actual drop-rates can probably be found buried in reddit or deep in the forums here. Good luck finding them):

25% - Named Drop
25% - Random Dungeon Ring (11% per)
25% - Random Dungeon Neck (11% per)
25% - Random Dungeon Weapon (2% for each weapon class. 0.666... for specific set within a class)
--Flame Staff
--Frost Staff
--Lightning Staff
--Sword
--Mace
--Axe
--Dagger
--Greatsword
--Maul
--Battleaxe
--Bow
--Shield

You want a specific weapon? Good luck with that!
You want a shield? Oh boy son...
You want a specific trait on your weapon? Well.. let's divide 0.66% by nine...

But if i want a charged staff it comes 8 times before anything else?

It's a named drop, so yes, because it has a high chance to drop from the Foreman.

Named drops are listed at the bottom:
http://elderscrollsonline.wiki.fextralife.com/Netch's+Touch+Set

Wing · March 2017

MrBrandon wrote: »

RNG is the downfall of this game. I've never liked RNG. I would rather have a token system in place. You can make the grind somewhat long, but to know I'm going to get what I need is a plus.

see I am a fan of token systems like this because too much range can feel arbitrary and not random. also token systems are great because even if you didn't get what you wanted you still made progress, and progress is key in an MMO

jedtb16_ESO · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

So someone please explain how loot is "random"

So i ran darkshade one over 300 times this week. Im looking for sharpened lightning staff of netches or flame staff

The ONLY time i EVER get a destro staff it comes in CHARGED.

U telling me out of the atleast 300 runs i happened to get 8 charged flame staff.. NOTHING ELSE.

So if u think out of 300 runs and only one type of staff looted is rng then i dont know what to tell you

[snip]

let me see if i have this right.....

you didn't get what you want so it's fixed....

is that right?

um, as others have pointed out..... that's not how random works.

[Edit to match quote]

Oreyn_Bearclaw · March 2017

2 things I need to point out.

First, lets start with 300 runs in a week. That is approx 43 runs per day. If each run takes 20 minutes, reasonable with resets, vendoring gear, taking a pee, etc, that is 860 minutes or 14.3 hours a day. So, yeah, I am gonna call BS.

Second, let's say I underestimated the persistence of you and 3 other crazy people, why for the love of god would you actual farm 14 hours a day for this particular staff?

Edit: And yes, the charged staff is a named drop. It is a separate loot table and comes from Foreman Llothan in DCI. Not relevant in the slightest to the conversation about RNG. If you actually ran this place 300 times, I am frankly surprised you dont have a lot more.

brandonv516 · March 2017

I dream of a charged vma lightning staff.

Ihatenightblades · March 2017

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

2 things I need to point out.

First, lets start with 300 runs in a week. That is approx 43 runs per day. If each run takes 20 minutes, reasonable with resets, vendoring gear, taking a pee, etc, that is 860 minutes or 14.3 hours a day. So, yeah, I am gonna call BS.

Second, let's say I underestimated the persistence of you and 3 other crazy people, why for the love of god would you actual farm 14 hours a day for this particular staff?

Edit: And yes, the charged staff is a named drop. It is a separate loot table and comes from Foreman Llothan in DCI. Not relevant in the slightest to the conversation about RNG. If you actually ran this place 300 times, I am frankly surprised you dont have a lot more.

Are u kidding me? Lol i ran the dungeon 30 times within a few hours . Im farming on normal since all i need is the staff.

So dont sit there and tell me what i did and didnt do . Dark shade 1 is the quickest dungeon in the game. Literaly can run to last boss soo as dungeon starts all u gotta kill is one boss then run to final boss.

However i didnt do that i killed all
Bosses and still did over 50 runs in a day

And it didnt take me 14 hours a day simply a few hours a day at most

kyle.wilson · March 2017

A few hundred runs doen't even begin to establish a pattern when drop rates are that low.

I'm still hunting for a few possible sharpened inferno staffs. I've lost count of how many times I've run COA. I've got a few BSW swords though.

Ihatenightblades · March 2017

dpencil wrote: »

@Princess_Asgari Yeah, I'm not trying to defend the RNG of ESO as a "good" system. I've made my own share of threads arguing for token systems. But the OP just doesn't understand the math of randomness. It's not enough to claim that certain weapons or traits are weighted more heavily off of a small sample size (and yes 300 is very small compared to the number of possible combinations of set/item type/trait). We've seen ZOS state and show diagrams that the weighting is balanced. That's what I'm sure the OP is refering to as "fake" but it would be very hard to prove without an enormous sample size, and honestly, thinking that the devs are lying just seems foolish.

Its not math my friend. Its a proven fact that if im getting a repeat trait 8 times in a row on a weapon that drops less than 3% ??? And im getting it in same trait 8 times in a row

Riga_Mortis · March 2017

Wing wrote: »

MrBrandon wrote: »

RNG is the downfall of this game. I've never liked RNG. I would rather have a token system in place. You can make the grind somewhat long, but to know I'm going to get what I need is a plus.

see I am a fan of token systems like this because too much range can feel arbitrary and not random. also token systems are great because even if you didn't get what you wanted you still made progress, and progress is key in an MMO

You want a token system for dungeons? Really? Smh some gamers these days.

Ihatenightblades · March 2017

kyle.wilson wrote: »

A few hundred runs doen't even begin to establish a pattern when drop rates are that low.

I'm still hunting for a few possible sharpened inferno staffs. I've lost count of how many times I've run COA. I've got a few BSW swords though.

So how come in that few hundred i got the same exact staff with same trait lmao you make no sense

rotaugen454 · March 2017

Riga_Mortis wrote: »

Wing wrote: »

MrBrandon wrote: »

RNG is the downfall of this game. I've never liked RNG. I would rather have a token system in place. You can make the grind somewhat long, but to know I'm going to get what I need is a plus.

see I am a fan of token systems like this because too much range can feel arbitrary and not random. also token systems are great because even if you didn't get what you wanted you still made progress, and progress is key in an MMO

You want a token system for dungeons? Really? Smh some gamers these days.

Back in MY day, we got an 8 bit "sword" that looked like a jagged left pointing arrow, and our "character" was a square.

artificial_blue · March 2017

Actually, if you have a 1/100 chance of getting something and you do it 100 times, the odds of you getting that item at least once in those 100 times IS higher than if you did it once.

So what are the odds you get the item that has a 1% drop chance to drop (at least once) if you ran it 100 times?

1 - ((99/100)^100) = 0.633968
So 63% chance you get the item if you ran it 100 times. That is assuming every item has a 1% chance to drop and it is completely random.

Same thing with the lottery... The odds of you winning it (at least once in your life) the more times you play DO increase. But just not by very much.

Dantaria · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

Its not math my friend. Its a proven fact that if im getting a repeat trait 8 times in a row on a weapon that drops less than 3% ??? And im getting it in same trait 8 times in a row

Sorry, but ahahahaha XD

You truly have no idea how math works

kyle.wilson wrote: »

If you don't like the coin, take a 12-facet cube (Am I spelling it right? English isn't my native). The probability of getting 1 eight times in a row is (1/12)^8, which is still >0.

Probability is always >0. It can be very low, but it's always possible.

In a way, you got a jackpot...

rotaugen454 · March 2017

Dantaria wrote: »

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

Its not math my friend. Its a proven fact that if im getting a repeat trait 8 times in a row on a weapon that drops less than 3% ??? And im getting it in same trait 8 times in a row

Sorry, but ahahahaha XD

You truly have no idea how math works

kyle.wilson wrote: »

If you don't like the coin, take a 12-facet cube (Am I spelling it right? English isn't my native). The probability of getting 1 eight times in a row is (1/12)^8, which is still >0.

Probability is always >0. It can be very low, but it's always possible.

In a way, you got a jackpot...

It's like "winning" a lottery where you OWE them six million dollars.

kargen27 · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

Raeph wrote: »

Uhhh, flipping a coin isn't exactly equivalent unless there is only one kind of staff, and it only has 2 possible traits.

Thank you. People need to think before they speak lol.

There are 5 staffs with 9 traits each .

But i happened to get the SAME STAFF with the SAME TRAIT 8 times without getting something else?

Ya cool story about ur coin flip lol

The math is the same. Even if you get six tails in a row your next flip you have a 50/50 chance of getting tails again. Your first seven staffs you received had no affect at all on the chances of you getting that same staff again.

Enemy-of-Coldharbour · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

So someone please explain how loot is "random"

So i ran darkshade one over 300 times this week. Im looking for sharpened lightning staff of netches or flame staff

The ONLY time i EVER get a destro staff it comes in CHARGED.

U telling me out of the atleast 300 runs i happened to get 8 charged flame staff.. NOTHING ELSE.

So if u think out of 300 runs and only one type of staff looted is rng then i dont know what to tell you

[snip]

[Edit title and content for politics]

So you ran it 42 times each day? I think your numbers are off.

dpencil · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

dpencil wrote: »

@Princess_Asgari Yeah, I'm not trying to defend the RNG of ESO as a "good" system. I've made my own share of threads arguing for token systems. But the OP just doesn't understand the math of randomness. It's not enough to claim that certain weapons or traits are weighted more heavily off of a small sample size (and yes 300 is very small compared to the number of possible combinations of set/item type/trait). We've seen ZOS state and show diagrams that the weighting is balanced. That's what I'm sure the OP is refering to as "fake" but it would be very hard to prove without an enormous sample size, and honestly, thinking that the devs are lying just seems foolish.

Its not math my friend. Its a proven fact that if im getting a repeat trait 8 times in a row on a weapon that drops less than 3% ??? And im getting it in same trait 8 times in a row

It's a named drop. It always has the same trait. Please just stop.

kargen27 · March 2017

Oreyn_Bearclaw · March 2017

I was trying to comment on your other thread, trying to again "prove" RNG is fake, but it looks like it got removed. For those that missed it, it was the same BS, but with a sharp axe of Sheer Venom in ICP.

You dont seem to understand that there are unique items that you will always get from each dungeon. Sharp Axe of Sheer Venom is one. Charge Inferno of Netch is another. They have nothing to do with your RNG from the final boss.

Here is your problem. Everyone on this thread agrees with you that RNG sucks in this game. The problem, is that you fail to comprehend what a unique drop is, and furthermore, you make ridiculous claims about the number of times your ran something. Sorry, but nobody believes you ran this place 300 times in a week.

Post a video of you running this dungeon "30 times in a few hours" and I will eat my words.

While you are at it, how about some screen shots of the staffs in question that you keep getting.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · March 2017

brandonv516 wrote: »

I dream of a charged vma lightning staff.

Got one yesterday. I was like, this just might actually be useful this patch. Haha.

Riga_Mortis · March 2017

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

I was trying to comment on your other thread, trying to again "prove" RNG is fake, but it looks like it got removed. For those that missed it, it was the same BS, but with a sharp axe of Sheer Venom in ICP.

You dont seem to understand that there are unique items that you will always get from each dungeon. Sharp Axe of Sheer Venom is one. Charge Inferno of Netch is another. They have nothing to do with your RNG from the final boss.

Here is your problem. Everyone on this thread agrees with you that RNG sucks in this game. The problem, is that you fail to comprehend what a unique drop is, and furthermore, you make ridiculous claims about the number of times your ran something. Sorry, but nobody believes you ran this place 300 times in a week.

Post a video of you running this dungeon "30 times in a few hours" and I will eat my words.

While you are at it, how about some screen shots of the staffs in question that you keep getting.

Iol I tried to post in that other thread of his aswell, I will wait for his RNG is fake part 3 thread.

Sn1per0 · March 2017

dpencil wrote: »

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

dpencil wrote: »

@Princess_Asgari Yeah, I'm not trying to defend the RNG of ESO as a "good" system. I've made my own share of threads arguing for token systems. But the OP just doesn't understand the math of randomness. It's not enough to claim that certain weapons or traits are weighted more heavily off of a small sample size (and yes 300 is very small compared to the number of possible combinations of set/item type/trait). We've seen ZOS state and show diagrams that the weighting is balanced. That's what I'm sure the OP is refering to as "fake" but it would be very hard to prove without an enormous sample size, and honestly, thinking that the devs are lying just seems foolish.

Its not math my friend. Its a proven fact that if im getting a repeat trait 8 times in a row on a weapon that drops less than 3% ??? And im getting it in same trait 8 times in a row

It's a named drop. It always has the same trait. Please just stop.

This is what I thought. Don't these named drops always drop with the same trait? In Fungal 2 the guy that chains one person down drops a named weapon that ALWAYS has sharpened on it.

rotaugen454 · March 2017

Riga_Mortis wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

I was trying to comment on your other thread, trying to again "prove" RNG is fake, but it looks like it got removed. For those that missed it, it was the same BS, but with a sharp axe of Sheer Venom in ICP.

You dont seem to understand that there are unique items that you will always get from each dungeon. Sharp Axe of Sheer Venom is one. Charge Inferno of Netch is another. They have nothing to do with your RNG from the final boss.

Here is your problem. Everyone on this thread agrees with you that RNG sucks in this game. The problem, is that you fail to comprehend what a unique drop is, and furthermore, you make ridiculous claims about the number of times your ran something. Sorry, but nobody believes you ran this place 300 times in a week.

Post a video of you running this dungeon "30 times in a few hours" and I will eat my words.

While you are at it, how about some screen shots of the staffs in question that you keep getting.

Iol I tried to post in that other thread of his aswell, I will wait for his RNG is fake part 3 thread.

It's like the Fast and Furious movies, there is always another one.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · March 2017

Riga_Mortis wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

I was trying to comment on your other thread, trying to again "prove" RNG is fake, but it looks like it got removed. For those that missed it, it was the same BS, but with a sharp axe of Sheer Venom in ICP.

You dont seem to understand that there are unique items that you will always get from each dungeon. Sharp Axe of Sheer Venom is one. Charge Inferno of Netch is another. They have nothing to do with your RNG from the final boss.

Here is your problem. Everyone on this thread agrees with you that RNG sucks in this game. The problem, is that you fail to comprehend what a unique drop is, and furthermore, you make ridiculous claims about the number of times your ran something. Sorry, but nobody believes you ran this place 300 times in a week.

Post a video of you running this dungeon "30 times in a few hours" and I will eat my words.

While you are at it, how about some screen shots of the staffs in question that you keep getting.

Iol I tried to post in that other thread of his aswell, I will wait for his RNG is fake part 3 thread.

Yeah, some people dont get it. What I really wish is that we would have a dungeon tracker under our achievement sections. That way people could actually link their number of runs. Every RNG rage thread seems to start with an outlandish claim about the number of clears of some piece of content. I have done VMA 500 times, etc. I am sure people have, but people dont understand that it weakens their argument signifcantly when it appears that they are lying through their teeth.

You arent farming normal solo as fast as he is claiming, and I cant imagine anyone being nice enough to help farm DC1 that many times for a trash set, let alone 3 people.

Malamar1229 · March 2017

dpencil wrote: »

Do not fall into the Gambler's Fallacy. If you have a 1/100 chance for something to happen, doing it 100 times does not mean it will happen one of those times. Every time you run it you have a 1/100 chance. The chances may be better than 1/200 but they are still pretty bad.

yeah and doing it 100 times should mean on the 99th time youll have a 99% chance.

current rng sucks

Ihatenightblades · March 2017

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

So someone please explain how loot is "random"

So i ran darkshade one over 300 times this week. Im looking for sharpened lightning staff of netches or flame staff

The ONLY time i EVER get a destro staff it comes in CHARGED.

U telling me out of the atleast 300 runs i happened to get 8 charged flame staff.. NOTHING ELSE.

So if u think out of 300 runs and only one type of staff looted is rng then i dont know what to tell you

[snip]

[Edit title and content for politics]

So you ran it 42 times each day? I think your numbers are off.

Some days i didnt run it some days

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Riga_Mortis wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

I was trying to comment on your other thread, trying to again "prove" RNG is fake, but it looks like it got removed. For those that missed it, it was the same BS, but with a sharp axe of Sheer Venom in ICP.

You dont seem to understand that there are unique items that you will always get from each dungeon. Sharp Axe of Sheer Venom is one. Charge Inferno of Netch is another. They have nothing to do with your RNG from the final boss.

Here is your problem. Everyone on this thread agrees with you that RNG sucks in this game. The problem, is that you fail to comprehend what a unique drop is, and furthermore, you make ridiculous claims about the number of times your ran something. Sorry, but nobody believes you ran this place 300 times in a week.

Post a video of you running this dungeon "30 times in a few hours" and I will eat my words.

While you are at it, how about some screen shots of the staffs in question that you keep getting.

Iol I tried to post in that other thread of his aswell, I will wait for his RNG is fake part 3 thread.

Yeah, some people dont get it. What I really wish is that we would have a dungeon tracker under our achievement sections. That way people could actually link their number of runs. Every RNG rage thread seems to start with an outlandish claim about the number of clears of some piece of content. I have done VMA 500 times, etc. I am sure people have, but people dont understand that it weakens their argument signifcantly when it appears that they are lying through their teeth.

You arent farming normal solo as fast as he is claiming, and I cant imagine anyone being nice enough to help farm DC1 that many times for a trash set, let alone 3 people.

Who said i was finding people? I didnt even bother asking people to give it if they got it i Qeued as tank and it literaly takes no more than 2 min when u Q as tank.

I dont need to lie on a forum about anything ever lol no game is worth lying about but ya anyways like i said i have ran it atleast 300 times and got 8 chRged flame staffs. If u think thats normal rng cool i think its fake rng.

Obviously i know there is some sort of rng in this game.

My main point is i don't believe all items come in sharpened in this game. And not internationally.
I think they literally dont drop.
Until i see someone prove they have it im believing what i believe .

Oreyn_Bearclaw · March 2017

Sn1per0 wrote: »

dpencil wrote: »

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

dpencil wrote: »

@Princess_Asgari Yeah, I'm not trying to defend the RNG of ESO as a "good" system. I've made my own share of threads arguing for token systems. But the OP just doesn't understand the math of randomness. It's not enough to claim that certain weapons or traits are weighted more heavily off of a small sample size (and yes 300 is very small compared to the number of possible combinations of set/item type/trait). We've seen ZOS state and show diagrams that the weighting is balanced. That's what I'm sure the OP is refering to as "fake" but it would be very hard to prove without an enormous sample size, and honestly, thinking that the devs are lying just seems foolish.

Its not math my friend. Its a proven fact that if im getting a repeat trait 8 times in a row on a weapon that drops less than 3% ??? And im getting it in same trait 8 times in a row

It's a named drop. It always has the same trait. Please just stop.

This is what I thought. Don't these named drops always drop with the same trait? In Fungal 2 the guy that chains one person down drops a named weapon that ALWAYS has sharpened on it.

@Sn1per0
Yes. Just google any set and you will see it. They all have a unique name, but they are always the same. This is the reason half of Cyro was full of people with 2 sharp Viper daggers for an entire patch. They all werent that lucky with RNG.

http://elderscrollsonline.wiki.fextralife.com/Viper's+Sting+Set

They were farming "Knife of Shadows". The boss you described "Gamyne Bandu" in FG2, has a pretty solid chance of dropping it. It will always be a sharp dagger of viper. Some sets have essentially BIS named items, and other sets have complete trash as named items.

DeadlyPhoenix · March 2017

They say it's RNG and it might be to a point. The only way I could see it actually "working as intended" is if the way they intended it was to drop certain things more often than others.

Sure we will generate a random number between 1 and 100... 1-10 is sharpened/divines. 11-75

kargen27 · March 2017

Malamar1229 wrote: »

dpencil wrote: »

Do not fall into the Gambler's Fallacy. If you have a 1/100 chance for something to happen, doing it 100 times does not mean it will happen one of those times. Every time you run it you have a 1/100 chance. The chances may be better than 1/200 but they are still pretty bad.

yeah and doing it 100 times should mean on the 99th time youll have a 99% chance.

current rng sucks

That isn't RNG. That is tracking drops to give you one of everything in a random order. Not nearly the same thing.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · March 2017

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Ihatenightblades wrote: »

So someone please explain how loot is "random"

So i ran darkshade one over 300 times this week. Im looking for sharpened lightning staff of netches or flame staff

The ONLY time i EVER get a destro staff it comes in CHARGED.

U telling me out of the atleast 300 runs i happened to get 8 charged flame staff.. NOTHING ELSE.

So if u think out of 300 runs and only one type of staff looted is rng then i dont know what to tell you

[snip]

[Edit title and content for politics]

So you ran it 42 times each day? I think your numbers are off.

Some days i didnt run it some days

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Riga_Mortis wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

I was trying to comment on your other thread, trying to again "prove" RNG is fake, but it looks like it got removed. For those that missed it, it was the same BS, but with a sharp axe of Sheer Venom in ICP.

You dont seem to understand that there are unique items that you will always get from each dungeon. Sharp Axe of Sheer Venom is one. Charge Inferno of Netch is another. They have nothing to do with your RNG from the final boss.

Here is your problem. Everyone on this thread agrees with you that RNG sucks in this game. The problem, is that you fail to comprehend what a unique drop is, and furthermore, you make ridiculous claims about the number of times your ran something. Sorry, but nobody believes you ran this place 300 times in a week.

Post a video of you running this dungeon "30 times in a few hours" and I will eat my words.

While you are at it, how about some screen shots of the staffs in question that you keep getting.

Iol I tried to post in that other thread of his aswell, I will wait for his RNG is fake part 3 thread.

Yeah, some people dont get it. What I really wish is that we would have a dungeon tracker under our achievement sections. That way people could actually link their number of runs. Every RNG rage thread seems to start with an outlandish claim about the number of clears of some piece of content. I have done VMA 500 times, etc. I am sure people have, but people dont understand that it weakens their argument signifcantly when it appears that they are lying through their teeth.

You arent farming normal solo as fast as he is claiming, and I cant imagine anyone being nice enough to help farm DC1 that many times for a trash set, let alone 3 people.

Who said i was finding people? I didnt even bother asking people to give it if they got it i Qeued as tank and it literaly takes no more than 2 min when u Q as tank.

I dont need to lie on a forum about anything ever lol no game is worth lying about but ya anyways like i said i have ran it atleast 300 times and got 8 chRged flame staffs. If u think thats normal rng cool i think its fake rng.

Obviously i know there is some sort of rng in this game.

My main point is i don't believe all items come in sharpened in this game. And not internationally.
I think they literally dont drop.
Until i see someone prove they have it im believing what i believe .

So now you ran it 40+ times in a day using groupfinder? The story just went from improbable to totally unbelievable. haha.

Edit:

http://elderscrollsonline.wiki.fextralife.com/Netch's+Touch+Set

Look at the link. Do you see Llothan's Burning Crutch? Does it look familiar? Again, this is a separate loot table.