Someone tell me odds and save me time.

Hortator Indoril Nerevar · March 2017

Hey everyone, so farming vma a lot lately. Even did 7 or 8 runs yesterday in a row with only a 20 minute break because I really want to get the 2 items I want. I want 2x Fire staffs sharp or 1x Fire and 1x Lightning sharp. As you can already tell I am a mage dps. So the inferno is for single target (taking advantage of that passive) and the lighting would be back bar for Aoe (also taking advantage of the passive) however I am also cool with 2x inferno if they come first.

ANYWAYS

I heard the chance of getting a sharp inferno is like 1/120 or something. I also have seen the tests and tested myself and know that ANY trait that is not sharp on a vma staff is actually pulling less dps than a non set item crafted sharp staff haha... (wtf zos). So even my nirn destro vma is junk compared to a crafted non set sharp staff haha..

So the question, What is the chance of getting a vma destro with sharp lol.. I want to know because I am not very good at vma. My best run ever was 4 deaths and 1 hour 10 minutes. My avg run is about 1 and a half or 2 hours long each so its not a small chunk of time. If my odds are legit like 1 or 2% per run I want to know because I dont want to waste my life.

Thanks in advance everyone and sorry if I am the bringer of bad news about how dpsing without sharp is virtually pointless, I know.. vma staffs that are not sharp should not be deco material..

MythicEmperor · March 2017

Really low.

Brutusmax1mus · March 2017

They are legit that bad if not worse.

Turelus · March 2017

Sorry it had to be done.

Brutusmax1mus · March 2017

20 runs this week and didn't even see a destro.

Hortator Indoril Nerevar · March 2017

I think I may have to stop trying to get one than. Getting the 2k bonus dps when you do like 30-35s on target skeletons, stupid insane dps in pledges and 40s+ in trials is not really worth it..

Lame, really wanted to get one as a goal but I just cant be one of the people who go like 500 hours for nothing. Not a club I want to join.

zaria · March 2017

Hortator Indoril Nerevar wrote: »

I think I may have to stop trying to get one than. Getting the 2k bonus dps when you do like 30-35s on target skeletons, stupid insane dps in pledges and 40s+ in trials is not really worth it..

Lame, really wanted to get one as a goal but I just cant be one of the people who go like 500 hours for nothing. Not a club I want to join.

More fun if you get it just before Morrowind is released and it comes with an better weapon who is easier to get

DRXHarbinger · March 2017

10 runs and 5 weekly leaderboards. ....for a year...solid. then my 1st dropped.

Hortator Indoril Nerevar · March 2017

zaria wrote: »

Hortator Indoril Nerevar wrote: »

I think I may have to stop trying to get one than. Getting the 2k bonus dps when you do like 30-35s on target skeletons, stupid insane dps in pledges and 40s+ in trials is not really worth it..

Lame, really wanted to get one as a goal but I just cant be one of the people who go like 500 hours for nothing. Not a club I want to join.

More fun if you get it just before Morrowind is released and it comes with an better weapon who is easier to get

Yea exactly...

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

10 runs and 5 weekly leaderboards. ....for a year...solid. then my 1st dropped.

Are you *** for real? How is that fun, how is that even a thing that got passed the designers.. like they are in a room and just all agree that eso is a rage game.

Panda_iMunch · March 2017

I think the average for getting sharp weapons is usually somewhere around a hundred or so runs, but I've seen situations where it has gone up to over 300 runs.

Personally, I would just run DW and get Julianos swords and put sharpen on them while back baring inferno staff for the AoE. Leaves room for monster and another 5 piece.

Flameheart · March 2017

Hortator Indoril Nerevar wrote: »

zaria wrote: »

Hortator Indoril Nerevar wrote: »

I think I may have to stop trying to get one than. Getting the 2k bonus dps when you do like 30-35s on target skeletons, stupid insane dps in pledges and 40s+ in trials is not really worth it..

Lame, really wanted to get one as a goal but I just cant be one of the people who go like 500 hours for nothing. Not a club I want to join.

More fun if you get it just before Morrowind is released and it comes with an better weapon who is easier to get

Yea exactly...

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

10 runs and 5 weekly leaderboards. ....for a year...solid. then my 1st dropped.

Are you *** for real? How is that fun, how is that even a thing that got passed the designers.. like they are in a room and just all agree that eso is a rage game.

They all heard of the story of the one lucky guy who beat vMA the first time in an unmentionable time and death count, but opened the chest and got a sharpened vMA fire staff.

I believe to remember his name was "carrot" or similar.

jakeedmundson · March 2017

IF (and who really knows...) but IF the odds of each weapon are exactly equal...

There are 11 weapons
1. sword/shield
2. axe/shield
3. dual wield drop (axe or dagger count as 1 drop now)
4. inferno staff
5. lightning staff
6. ice staff
7. resto staff
8-10. 2 handed (axe, sword, maul)
11. bow

there are 8 traits out of 9 total (training doesn't drop in vma thank god)

so the chance of getting any sharpened item is 1/8 or 12.5%
and the chance of getting an inferno staff is 1/11 or 9.09%

so the chance of getting a sharpened inferno ... every single run... it won't increase or decrease no matter how many runs...
is 1.136% assuming all drop chances are equal... which is not really proven yet.

i've done 80+ runs.... no sharpened inferno. Others have done hundreds without it... some people get it on their first 5 runs.
The system sucks. #VMATOKENSYSTEM

WarpigFunk · March 2017

dude in one of my guilds, donjuan something or other.... first VMA clear, sharpened lightning destro. And he's a sorc.

I've heard of another dude in another one of my guilds that has cleared it well over 500 times and best he's ever found was a precise inferno ...

My second clear was a sharpened maul, which is pretty solid for PvP... my 4th ever clear was a precise bow.
Since then best I've seen is a single sharpened dagger. I have a couple of stam alts, but my main is a magsorc, and my primary alt is a magtemplar.

I've gotten 4 staffs total, 2 resto, 1 ice defending, 1 inferno powered ... I run VMA every day and often 2-3 times a day. Yea the struggle is real, but I'd honestly rather not know the odds. I've deconstructed more charged and powered greatswords than I care to think about. And I'm like you TC, takes me a little over an hour on a good run - 2 hours on a bad run. All for a chest that's sure to disappoint.

Jitterbug · March 2017

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

10 runs and 5 weekly leaderboards. ....for a year...solid. then my 1st dropped.

Holy droprate batman!

I have given up on stuff like that. If the Malubeth helm is training or the staff is precise... snip it. I just play.
Grinding for stuff is the opposite of fun.

Edit: grinding with a guaranteed drop I dont mind. Grinding to maybe NEVER get the drop I simple wont do.

Hortator Indoril Nerevar · March 2017

Yea all of this has made my mind up. Thanks ill take the 2k dps loss.

Well thats lame, wanted to play the game.. not play "vma on repeat unlimited".

Ch4mpTW · March 2017

I'll put it to you like this, OP. I've been running VMA since it has came out (just about). When I first started running it, it wasn't even a 50% chance at getting a weapon in the last chest. However, if you did get a weapon — it dropped in: Defending, precise, or sharpened...

. . . I didn't see my first staff-based weapon until my run in the 90's. Which was a sharpened restoration staff... I didn't see my first actual destruction staff (which was an infused ice staff), until hundreds of runs later. My first inferno staff was hundreds of runs after that. And even then, it was defending. My second inferno staff? Nirnhoned.

Bruh, I didn't even see a lightning staff until a few weeks ago (nirnhoned). As in it was the week Homestead went live on console. And even then it was due to the weekly rewards that I received one. Same with my first ever sharpened destruction staff (ice). I got it from weekly rewards. I have yet to see a lightning staff of any kind in the final chest. And there's tons of people like me in that regards. I know of people who have ran VMA so much that they are in the thousands, and have never seen an inferno staff in that final chest. True story.

DRXHarbinger · March 2017

Yes it's true. That's how long it took for me. Then 2 weeks later the sharp lit staff in weekly and looted another inferno 1 week after that.

But still note to everyone. DO NOT decon your nirn and precise gear. Keep it. You never know what evil spiteful crap zos has planned in the near future. Everyone is crying after sharpened and asking for buffs to other traits. Don't make yourself go and farm it all again.

Ch4mpTW · March 2017

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

Yes it's true. That's how long it took for me. Then 2 weeks later the sharp lit staff in weekly and looted another inferno 1 week after that.

But still note to everyone. DO NOT decon your nirn and precise gear. Keep it. You never know what evil spiteful crap zos has planned in the near future. Everyone is crying after sharpened and asking for buffs to other traits. Don't make yourself go and farm it all again.

@DRXHarbinger Can you imagine if charged ends up being best-in-slot, and blows the other traits out of the park? Kind of like how Sharpened currently is doing? LOL! All those charged weapons everyone has deconstructed and or deleted. Gone.

Hortator Indoril Nerevar · March 2017

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

I'll put it to you like this, OP. I've been running VMA since it has came out (just about). When I first started running it, it wasn't even a 50% chance at getting a weapon in the last chest. However, if you did get a weapon — it dropped in: Defending, precise, or sharpened...

. . . I didn't see my first staff-based weapon until my run in the 90's. Which was a sharpened restoration staff... I didn't see my first actual destruction staff (which was an infused ice staff), until hundreds of runs later. My first inferno staff was hundreds of runs after that. And even then, it was defending. My second inferno staff? Nirnhoned.

Bruh, I didn't even see a lightning staff until a few weeks ago (nirnhoned). As in it was the week Homestead went live on console. And even then it was due to the weekly rewards that I received one. Same with my first ever sharpened destruction staff (ice). I got it from weekly rewards. I have yet to see a lightning staff of any kind in the final chest. And there's tons of people like me in that regards. I know of people who have ran VMA so much that they are in the thousands, and have never seen an inferno staff in that final chest. True story.

EVEN if those people did the runs in 40 mins flawless every time if they did it 1000x it would = 40,000 minutes. 666.66 hours. 27.77 days.

Not worth. I guess ill have perfect bis for mageblade minus the staff... cbf. Would rather play a fps game or something instead of wasting time in vma.

KingYogi415 · March 2017

It takes around 150 runs before your ready to breakdown and quit forever.

Some people took around 400 runs to get theirs.

Your better off farming aether or moondancer staves

Hortator Indoril Nerevar · March 2017

KingYogi415 wrote: »

It takes around 150 runs before your ready to breakdown and quit forever.

Some people took around 400 runs to get theirs.

Your better off farming aether or moondancer staves

How long does each run take you to do and how many runs have you done?

PathwayM · March 2017

The percentage drop chances without any weighting taken into account is (1/12)*(1/9)=0.925% chance. I don't think everything is equally weighted though...

Vaoh · March 2017

Wait..... you want TWO sharpened vMA inferno staves???

I wish I could tell you otherwise, but I firmly believe you will never accomplish this. Too many people have run vMA 100+ times and not looted a single sharpened staff.