60+ undaunted keys, i still can't get the shoulder i need

Blackbird_V · February 2017

skiptomyluau wrote: »

I'm 2 weeks in trying to get any weight any trait kragh shoulder. I thought getting the head was supposed to be the hard part!

Lol no. You can just grind a dungeon. For a min of 8 char slots, you can only get 24 keys a day: 16 if you do not have DLC.

Cherryblossom · February 2017

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

@Anhedonie
Dammit, 6 medium not one light.

Anhedonie · February 2017

Cherryblossom wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

@Anhedonie
Dammit, 6 medium not one light.

If only we could trade them.

DurzoBlint13 · February 2017

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

Inklings · February 2017

Aawww my sweet summer child.

I turned in 370 keys trying to get medium khrag divines shoulders and didn't get them.

I'm also close to 300 vMA clears without a sharpened inferno staff.

But I did get a sharpened bow in vDSA on my first 160cp clear. To bad I have no use for it as I don't care much for Pvp.

IronCrystal · February 2017

Here's another image that I use that's basically the same as @LadyLavina posted.

Prof_Bawbag · February 2017

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

Malmai · February 2017

BlackbirdV wrote: »

skiptomyluau wrote: »

I'm 2 weeks in trying to get any weight any trait kragh shoulder. I thought getting the head was supposed to be the hard part!

Lol no. You can just grind a dungeon. For a min of 8 char slots, you can only get 24 keys a day: 16 if you do not have DLC.

That is 8 hours a day if you got solid group...

svartorn · February 2017

I just turned in 130 keys after changing my Champion Points to Treasure Hunter.

130 total keys. Repeat, 130.

I got 6 useful shoulders (IE: Divines dps/sturdy tanking). The entire rest of all the shoulders looted from the chests were prosperous/training.

DurzoBlint13 · February 2017

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

who said anything about "if I did it the hard way, you should have to too"? I was just illustrating the point that it can take a very long time to get what you want when everything is RNG. IMO a token system would be much better for all players regardless of what you are looking for or how long you have been hunting it. That, or just make them tradable.....and by that I mean TRADE, not sell. If I have a pieces you want and you have a piece I want, we could simply trade. I have no idea what making them sellable would do to the economy

Prof_Bawbag · February 2017

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

who said anything about "if I did it the hard way, you should have to too"? I was just illustrating the point that it can take a very long time to get what you want when everything is RNG. IMO a token system would be much better for all players regardless of what you are looking for or how long you have been hunting it. That, or just make them tradable.....and by that I mean TRADE, not sell. If I have a pieces you want and you have a piece I want, we could simply trade. I have no idea what making them sellable would do to the economy

I know you were, it wasn't a dig at anything you had said. It's been banded about here umpteen dozen times in recent months and when someone comes up with a semi plausible method, they eventually get shot down. The grind remains because a number of people complain others should have to endure the same ballache they had to endure in their endeavours to get the exact gear they want. There are even people who complain about the RNG, then in the same breath complain that it would be unfair if a token system were to be implemented and others obtained shoulders or vMA weapons quicker than they initially did.

dodgehopper_ESO · February 2017

Having a hell of a time getting the swarm mother shoulder I want, but I keep getting a lot of other shoulders I've already gotten. It would be nice if we could eventually save up something to get the actual item we want.

Inklings · February 2017

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

who said anything about "if I did it the hard way, you should have to too"? I was just illustrating the point that it can take a very long time to get what you want when everything is RNG. IMO a token system would be much better for all players regardless of what you are looking for or how long you have been hunting it. That, or just make them tradable.....and by that I mean TRADE, not sell. If I have a pieces you want and you have a piece I want, we could simply trade. I have no idea what making them sellable would do to the economy

I know you were, it wasn't a dig at anything you had said. It's been banded about here umpteen dozen times in recent months and when someone comes up with a semi plausible method, they eventually get shot down. The grind remains because a number of people complain others should have to endure the same ballache they had to endure in their endeavours to get the exact gear they want. There are even people who complain about the RNG, then in the same breath complain that it would be unfair if a token system were to be implemented and others obtained shoulders or vMA weapons quicker than they initially did.

I have yet to see or hear anyone say what you're claiming others have said. If you did it's such a small % of the population that it definitely is not effecting the reason to keep the grind. In fact the developers have said otherwise why they have kept then loot system the way it is and it has nothing to do with others complaining about making it easier.

DurzoBlint13 · February 2017

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

who said anything about "if I did it the hard way, you should have to too"? I was just illustrating the point that it can take a very long time to get what you want when everything is RNG. IMO a token system would be much better for all players regardless of what you are looking for or how long you have been hunting it. That, or just make them tradable.....and by that I mean TRADE, not sell. If I have a pieces you want and you have a piece I want, we could simply trade. I have no idea what making them sellable would do to the economy

I know you were, it wasn't a dig at anything you had said. It's been banded about here umpteen dozen times in recent months and when someone comes up with a semi plausible method, they eventually get shot down. The grind remains because a number of people complain others should have to endure the same ballache they had to endure in their endeavours to get the exact gear they want. There are even people who complain about the RNG, then in the same breath complain that it would be unfair if a token system were to be implemented and others obtained shoulders or vMA weapons quicker than they initially did.

oh. My apologies. I misunderstood. Yeah, I can see what you are saying.
However, I think a lot of it has to do with ZOS's attitude that more hours played equate to the game being more popular.....and that is just wrong. From my own experience, the grind drives away more players than it attract new ones. Each time I log in I see less and less people- either on my friends list or guild rosters. It feels to me like this game is committing slow suicide by boring the hell out of hard core players and focusing only on drawing in new players and Crown Store fluff. If I sub from just after DB release to Morrowind release, I will have only gotten 2 dungeons and access to crafting bags as my payoff. That is almost a full year of subs and only 2 dungeons to show for it. The Crafting Bags were a great addition to the game, but without a reason to craft....what's the point?
Sorry, I am just frustrated with ESO right now

Prof_Bawbag · February 2017

Inklings wrote: »

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

who said anything about "if I did it the hard way, you should have to too"? I was just illustrating the point that it can take a very long time to get what you want when everything is RNG. IMO a token system would be much better for all players regardless of what you are looking for or how long you have been hunting it. That, or just make them tradable.....and by that I mean TRADE, not sell. If I have a pieces you want and you have a piece I want, we could simply trade. I have no idea what making them sellable would do to the economy

I know you were, it wasn't a dig at anything you had said. It's been banded about here umpteen dozen times in recent months and when someone comes up with a semi plausible method, they eventually get shot down. The grind remains because a number of people complain others should have to endure the same ballache they had to endure in their endeavours to get the exact gear they want. There are even people who complain about the RNG, then in the same breath complain that it would be unfair if a token system were to be implemented and others obtained shoulders or vMA weapons quicker than they initially did.

I have yet to see or hear anyone say what you're claiming others have said. If you did it's such a small % of the population that it definitely is not effecting the reason to keep the grind. In fact the developers have said otherwise why they have kept then loot system the way it is and it has nothing to do with others complaining about making it easier.

Look in almost every "increase the drop rate" thread over the last few months and you'll see those people in those very threads.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · February 2017

60+ Haha. That is nothing. I have put every key I received into the same chest since the new ones came out for grothdarr in divines and still nothing. I dont know the exact number, but it def has a few zeros.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · February 2017

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

When people who complain about the grind stop telling others if they had to spend 600 keys getting a specific item, then others should do so too. When someone pipes up about taking some of the grind out of things, you inevitably get those that were complaining about the grind in the first place that "they did it the hard way". It's us the players that demand the grind remains whether we admit it or not when called out.

who said anything about "if I did it the hard way, you should have to too"? I was just illustrating the point that it can take a very long time to get what you want when everything is RNG. IMO a token system would be much better for all players regardless of what you are looking for or how long you have been hunting it. That, or just make them tradable.....and by that I mean TRADE, not sell. If I have a pieces you want and you have a piece I want, we could simply trade. I have no idea what making them sellable would do to the economy

I know you were, it wasn't a dig at anything you had said. It's been banded about here umpteen dozen times in recent months and when someone comes up with a semi plausible method, they eventually get shot down. The grind remains because a number of people complain others should have to endure the same ballache they had to endure in their endeavours to get the exact gear they want. There are even people who complain about the RNG, then in the same breath complain that it would be unfair if a token system were to be implemented and others obtained shoulders or vMA weapons quicker than they initially did.

I dont see that argument made very often. The system is there because it artificially prolongs content. And the reality is that it works (600 keys is a lot of runs). The VMA threads that typically get shot down are those wanting drops from normal mode and that sort of thing. I ran VMA god knows how many times for my staff and would welcome a token system in a heartbeat.

Personally I would prefer cleaner loot tables rather than a token system, but at this point I would welcome any change.

DHale · February 2017

60 keys that is not even a water molucule in the ocean. I have run several hundred of the same dungeon to not get a helm or shoulder I want.

xboxNA corin6 · February 2017

I'm agreeing this is the WORST system i've ever seen in my 15 years of MMO experience. Some players get their gear in a few days, some get their gear over a years worth of time. It's just not fair. I would be happy with a key system, even if it took 100 or 200 keys to get that item, atleast everyone would be playing equally.

Neoauspex · February 2017

It is frustrating. But it is also what keeps us coming back.

Minalan · February 2017

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

LadyLavina wrote: »

Reference for anyone that stumbles upon this thread and doesn't already know.

good insight....wonder if ppl are using the wrong chests often?

There's a letter in the undaunted enclave that says which dungeon sets are in which chest.

Anhedonie · February 2017

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

Somebody should tell them that, considering there is no mandatory subscription and the only way to make people buy sub is through creating interesting content, not soul crushing grind.

Minalan · February 2017

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

LadyLavina wrote: »

Reference for anyone that stumbles upon this thread and doesn't already know.

good insight....wonder if ppl are using the wrong chests often?

There's a letter in the undaunted enclave that says which dungeon sets are in which chest.

Anhedonie wrote: »

DurzoBlint13 wrote: »

Anhedonie wrote: »

Amateur. I'm past 200 keys and still don't have medium Grothdarr.

took me just over 320 keys to get that. Still do not have a Heavy Impen Grothdar though and I have opened well over 500 keys now (probably closer to 600).

When will ZOS realize that making the game an endless grind does not benefit anyone?

Somebody should tell them that, considering there is no mandatory subscription and the only way to make people buy sub is through creating interesting content, not soul crushing grind.

Here's what you do:

Get a trait that works, even if it isn't perfect.
Wait for the PVP gold vendor to run that set, get the exact piece you want.

Life is too short to obsess over 250 Magicka or Impen.

Purrmaid · February 2017

When all else fail! Threaten the god of luck and RNG!!

... and hope they laugh hard enough to show pity on you.

Duckbutta · February 2017

GilGalad wrote: »

I know that feeling. It took me 330 keys to get a divines Grothdarr shoulder.

Here are the chances to get a shoulder in the desired trait:

(*): Chances if they would remove prosperous and training.

So if you are looking for a specific divines shoulder e.g. medium divines you have a 50% chance after 200 keys. If you dont care about the weight but only want a divines shoulder the chances are 87% after 200 keys.

So if you dont have the shoulder after 200 keys you belong to the unlucky 50%!

Help me understand your math please. You say there is a 50% chance after 200 keys, but where do you get this number? There are 3 weights, 8 traits, and 12 shoulders per chest (non-dlc) so it should be 1 in 288, correct? Even if you were to remove prosperous and training (which isn't happening, but ok) that still puts you at 1 in 216. Am I missing something?

Duckbutta · February 2017

Furthermore, let's suppose that you did have 200 different combinations, that doesn't mean that after 200 keys you would have a 50% chance of getting what you want. That's like saying if you flip a coin twice, you would have a 50% chance of getting heads at least once. The chance of getting heads at least once after 2 coin flips is actually 75% (I can explain the math behind this later if needed, but I'm typing on my phone right now).

GilGalad · February 2017

Duckbutta wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

I know that feeling. It took me 330 keys to get a divines Grothdarr shoulder.

Here are the chances to get a shoulder in the desired trait:

(*): Chances if they would remove prosperous and training.

So if you are looking for a specific divines shoulder e.g. medium divines you have a 50% chance after 200 keys. If you dont care about the weight but only want a divines shoulder the chances are 87% after 200 keys.

So if you dont have the shoulder after 200 keys you belong to the unlucky 50%!

Help me understand your math please. You say there is a 50% chance after 200 keys, but where do you get this number? There are 3 weights, 8 traits, and 12 helms per chest (non-dlc) so it should be 1 in 288, correct? Even if you were to remove prosperous and training (which isn't happening, bu ok) that still puts you at 1 in 216. I believe your graphs should all be shifted vertically down from where they are now, am I missing something?

Not sure what you mean by shifted vertically down, but if you check out my thread here you can find all the details about the calculation: Link

In short: The probability to have the desired shoulder after N runs is given by:

P = 1-(287/288)^N

So you calculate the probability of not getting the shoulder N consecutive times with a chance of 287/288 and then you take the opposite event. For N = 1 you get the expected 1/288 chance, for N -> infinity the probability will reach 100%. On average it will take 288 keys to get the shoulder.

To illustrate the problem I quickly made a table with random number distributions: RNG Table

So I created three test distributions simulating 288 keys used. Looking at the histogram you can see big differences between the 3 distributions and most importantly many zero entries. Counting zero entries gives us (107, 110, 119), meaning that these players would still not have 107, 110 or 119 of the 288 possible shoulder drops after 288 keys.

The problem is that wide spread which is a result of the extremely low probabilty to get the desired shoulder (1/288 = 0,35%). The exponential function describing the drop probability will never reach 100%. 3 out of 100 people wont have the desired shoulder after 1000 keys ([278/288]^1000 = 3.1%). On the other hand there will be people with multiple shoulders. If trading was allowed and assuming everyone on the server would use 288 keys and trade duplicates everyone would have every shoulder with every trait, because with high draw numbers you will converge to the even distribution of shoulders.

Khaos_Bane · February 2017

I wish I could turn one of my 800 keys in for something....... I STIL DON'T HAVE EVEN A SINGLE SPC SET I LIKE BECAUSE OF THE RIDICULOUS RNG.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · February 2017

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

60+ Haha. That is nothing. I have put every key I received into the same chest since the new ones came out for grothdarr in divines and still nothing. I dont know the exact number, but it def has a few zeros.

Apparently complaining on forums pleases the almighty RNGesus. Divines grothdarr dropped for me last night. haha

Now I get to see whats in the other chests...

GilGalad · February 2017

Duckbutta wrote: »

Furthermore, let's suppose that you did have 200 different combinations, that doesn't mean that after 200 keys you would have a 50% chance of getting what you want. That's like saying if you flip a coin twice, you would have a 50% chance of getting heads at least once. The chance of getting heads at least once after 2 coin flips is actually 75% (I can explain the math behind this later if needed, but I'm typing on my phone right now).

Thats exactely what I used to calculate the probabilites. In terms of getting at least one head you have:

P = 1-0.5^2 = 0.75

The graphs you see above are based on the following formulas:

light blue:   P = 1 - (1-3/288)^N
light green:  P = 1 - (1-3/216)^N
dark blue:    P = 1 - (1-1/288)^N
dark green:   P = 1 - (1-1/216)^N