Please tell us drop rates!

Skcarkden · November 2016

JD2013 wrote: »

Skcarkden wrote: »

GrumpyMuffin wrote: »

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

Not sure if it would technically be gambling. You are paying real money for crowna, there is no gamble there. How you spend that virtual currency in a virtual world is a different thing.

I'm in agreement that these are bad, but in terms of legal systems i think they are good.

That's technically money laundering

I don't think that means what you think it means ....

And no, it is not illegal if they don't publish the drop rates. LOTS of games have never published drop rates with things like this and I am pretty certain they haven't had the police kicking their doors down ...

I did say technically

, If it was directly money on the boxes, and also chance to not get anything then it would have gambling laws come in play, but because they filter the money to a exclusive game currency and make sure everyone gets at least something per box they get away with what is obviously gambling.

But because they filter it through to convert money into a game currency to me it's technically laundering, turning something that would have been bad if used as it was into something.... 'good' o.O

Armitas · November 2016

After being exposed for heavily weighting VMA RNG they really should post the drop rates for paid crates because no one trusts them to provide a fair RNG system anymore. I wouldn't give them a dime until they verify the chances.

jedtb16_ESO · November 2016

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

no.... you make the claim. i'm just asking for your data to back it up.

Ok then, I'll go ahead and send out a test to every person on the planet asking to write an essay on how drop rates, RNGs, and probability theory works. I'll get back to you when I get the results from the 7 billion or so responses worldwide.

Until then, I'll just have to make baseless claims using assumptions that simply equate to common sense.

there is no such thing as common sense

You are definitely proof of that.

lol, it always amuses me how quickly some people get stroppy when one challenges their generalizations.

if you talk to people in the field of cognition they will tell you that almost everything that passes for common sense is neither common nor sense.

jedtb16_ESO · November 2016

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

and on that..... the vast majority do understand the mechanism, but they don't like the results.

Cazzy · November 2016

I didn't want to start any arguments (although debates are fine), I just want t

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

no.... you make the claim. i'm just asking for your data to back it up.

Ok then, I'll go ahead and send out a test to every person on the planet asking to write an essay on how drop rates, RNGs, and probability theory works. I'll get back to you when I get the results from the 7 billion or so responses worldwide.

Until then, I'll just have to make baseless claims using assumptions that simply equate to common sense.

there is no such thing as common sense

You are definitely proof of that.

lol, it always amuses me how quickly some people get stroppy when one challenges their generalizations.

if you talk to people in the field of cognition they will tell you that almost everything that passes for common sense is neither common nor sense.

That's not quite what psychology taught me

Bouldercleave · November 2016

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

no.... you make the claim. i'm just asking for your data to back it up.

Ok then, I'll go ahead and send out a test to every person on the planet asking to write an essay on how drop rates, RNGs, and probability theory works. I'll get back to you when I get the results from the 7 billion or so responses worldwide.

Until then, I'll just have to make baseless claims using assumptions that simply equate to common sense.

there is no such thing as common sense

You are definitely proof of that.

lol, it always amuses me how quickly some people get stroppy when one challenges their generalizations.

if you talk to people in the field of cognition they will tell you that almost everything that passes for common sense is neither common nor sense.

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

and on that..... the vast majority do understand the mechanism, but they don't like the results.

OK, then your very own words, "which people are these"? Don't chide me for making generalizations without empirical data, then make your own generalizations. Hypocrisy is a very poor way to argue a point.

Cousin_Idirfa · November 2016

I agree @Cazzy , I've seen posts from players saying they have loaded up on crowns in order to get all the exclusive stuff.
The most expensive mount on the crown store so far was something like 4000 crowns, so it makes sense for players to assume they might get something they want for this amount, and they could, but it could also be tens of thousands of crowns, or more. Some players on the PTS were spending upwards of 30,000 crowns and still had not obtained a single Apex reward, nor had enough gems to buy one. And there were six Apex rewards in the crates (Storm Atronach Mounts).

By removing the price of the items and moving them to a chance-based system, they are able to charge a potentially unlimited amount of money for the items. It makes sense that ZOS would rather get $100 or $200 or more for an item than the $30 or $40 outright, and it's imperative to the success of the system that players don't realize that they're spending this much more.

ZOS is knowingly implementing a slippery system that requires some camouflage in order to inflate the prices while hiding the inflation. If they publish the drop rates, it goes against the very nature of the system.

ntheogenic · November 2016

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

and on that..... the vast majority do understand the mechanism, but they don't like the results.

nvm

rotaugen454 · November 2016

Ackwalan wrote: »

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

Did I read this correctly? I know you did this on PTS so the crowns were free and for testing, but 12,000 crowns is 120$. So a legendary tier item cost 120$, give or take a little for RNG.

It's less than $50 with discounted crowns. Still a lot, but that is for guaranteed, plus any coming in drops.

pareidolon · November 2016

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

I've seen a few answers given to this question, but I think those so far are missing the biggest reason that crown crates won't be subject to most gambling laws.

If I spend my money on Crown and buy a crate with 400 crowns and I win big, I might get a storm atronoch horse. But that horse is not technically mine to own; I'm just using content in a manner permitted by my license. It becomes an item like any I can get in the game, and if I break the terms of service it would all disappear. Further showing it's "not a thing with value" is my inability to cash it in for real money, or potentially trade it for real money to anyone.

So using crown crates, or anything providing random items in the game may feel like gambling, but it's really just an experience. At least this seems to be the case in the US.

Lukums1 · November 2016

I've got 30k crowns ready to drop from my math during PTS it should be enough with gems double ups to obtain the mount however I'm prepared to sink another 10k to confirm it. I know it's bloody stupid but I said this before if you're not PREPARED to spend upwards of $300.00 + on the mount don't even try. It's a MONSTEROUS gamble.

Lysette · November 2016

I just wonder why someone even considers that these crates could be fair. Why the heck would they have to make them at all, if those would be fair. They could just sell the item directly in this case. So it is pretty clear, without to even have to know the chances, that these crates are made to screw players over with them. Otherwise they would never invest time, money and reputation loss into these scam items. Whoever thinks differently is a hopeless dreamer.

Korah_Eaglecry · November 2016

ZOS wont publish these because itll tell the world that those participating are being ripped off. It would also look very bad for them if the Government and the Courts ever decided to step in on this gambling and regulate it.

The only way youre going to find out the numbers, or at least close to it. Is if one of the Whales is a number cruncher and decides to share the drop rates with the community.

Rohamad_Ali · November 2016

I'm one of those people . I think dropping $30 bucks for a costume or a mount is rediculous . Absurd . Boarder line criminal as you will never really own a virtual item in this game . I can't buy the mount and then go feature it in a new tv series , it's not mine , it's ZOS's intellectual property . The intellectual part is debatable because I'd feel stupid spending that much for a virtual item even if I could use it elsewhere because most are not finished with clipping issues and animation bugs . So yeah , I'm one of those people ...

Rohamad_Ali · November 2016

I think too many people have lost touch with reality playing fantasy MMOs for too long . We use to be able to buy a whole new game for less then the chances to win a mount in those crown crates , based on the testing in TC . An entire NEW game with the subscription covered for at least a year . Now people throw cash at things that don't even work . Remember the Breton hero costume ? Talk about an epic waste of cash . Just recently the thief personality and many more things in game still broken since launch .

Now those same people are going to risk getting the same possibly broken "limited use toys" by throwing more money . They don't even care if their spending habits keep us this course of broken items for real cash and more of it . So wrapped up in their own world and the illusion of value they are exactly what's wrong with the game economy today . They just want it now no matter what . *** up an take my money !

So messed up ..

menedhyn · November 2016

Rohamad_Ali wrote: »

...I think dropping $30 bucks for a costume or a mount is rediculous . Absurd . Boarder line criminal as you will never really own a virtual item in this game . I can't buy the mount and then go feature it in a new tv series , it's not mine , it's ZOS's intellectual property .

Well said. One of the key reasons why I am happy to spend the equivalent in £ on, say, books or records or other tangible items that, fingers crossed, will be around in twenty or thirty years' time. I know, everyone is different and has their own views and opinions on this, but I just can't place the same value on something that I don't ever own, that won't last as long and that may not be what I was hoping for in the first place.

Tyrion87 · November 2016

As for the crates' drop rates, it is not illegal if ZOS decides to not share the data with us.

Even more, I agree with @Korah_Eaglecry that by giving us such information ZOS would shoot themselves in the foot. We all know that the rates are "sligthly more than nothing" and if ZOS confirmed this, people would not buy these things at all. The knowledge about the exact drop rates would deter people from buying the crates. Generally, people prefer to live in unawareness to have hope for better chances to get what they want. And this blind hope will make them buy the crates...

ZOS_JohanaB · November 2016

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