Please tell us drop rates!

Cazzy · November 2016

With the new recipe and the upcoming crates there are a lot of people confused about their chances. Normally I'd not mind but now you're asking for really money. Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want. This isn't the case. Especially since we don't know drop rates of these items.

So, I'm asking you, if you're going to go ahead with them then please release the drop rates to us prior to the crates going live.

Tryxus · November 2016

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

johu31 · November 2016

Odds of winning must be made available

Cazzy · November 2016

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

I honestly don't know

I'd have thought so but it may be different for different countries?

They've not published anything yet or even hinted that they will.

MarkusLiberty · November 2016

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

Cazzy · November 2016

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

But that still would require a lot of money. There are people who think 1000-5000 crowns is enough to get that mount or costume. For some it may be, sure! But people are still without information needed. People have bought a set amount of crowns this week in preparation for their release.

jedtb16_ESO · November 2016

Cazzy wrote: »

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

But that still would require a lot of money. There are people who think 1000-5000 crowns is enough to get that mount or costume. For some it may be, sure! But people are still without information needed. People have bought a set amount of crowns this week in preparation for their release.

which people are these?

[Deleted User] · November 2016

The user and all related content has been deleted.

Cazzy · November 2016

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Cazzy wrote: »

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

But that still would require a lot of money. There are people who think 1000-5000 crowns is enough to get that mount or costume. For some it may be, sure! But people are still without information needed. People have bought a set amount of crowns this week in preparation for their release.

which people are these?

I didn't name them for a reason

jedtb16_ESO · November 2016

Cazzy wrote: »

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

But that still would require a lot of money. There are people who think 1000-5000 crowns is enough to get that mount or costume. For some it may be, sure! But people are still without information needed. People have bought a set amount of crowns this week in preparation for their release.

which people are these?

Cazzy wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Cazzy wrote: »

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

But that still would require a lot of money. There are people who think 1000-5000 crowns is enough to get that mount or costume. For some it may be, sure! But people are still without information needed. People have bought a set amount of crowns this week in preparation for their release.

which people are these?

I didn't name them for a reason

hmmm.... i'm pretty sure i know what the reason is.

Cazzy · November 2016

OK, good

Ackwalan · November 2016

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

Did I read this correctly? I know you did this on PTS so the crowns were free and for testing, but 12,000 crowns is 120$. So a legendary tier item cost 120$, give or take a little for RNG.

Cazzy · November 2016

GrumpyMuffin wrote: »

The trouble is if they say the odds are, for example 1/100 a lot of people will take that to mean that if they buy 100 crates they will be guaranteed the goodie they are after. They won't realise the 1/100 odd will reset for every new crate opened. It isn't like the lottery where if you brought enough tickets you are 100pc certain of winning. It is possible, and would be unlucky, that you could open one million crates and still not get the item you wanted (ignoring the cash back thingy on unwanted items)

Very true! But at least the people who still spend hundreds are to blame when they don't get anything. I just want people to make informed decisions before spending their paycheck. You are right in what you say though, I agree that some people may still not understand or care about the odds even when shown

Cazzy · November 2016

Ackwalan wrote: »

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Some people seem to be under the impression that buying a certain amount of crowns to spend on the crates will pretty much guarantee them what they want.

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

On the PTS I was able to get 100 gems after spending 12 000 crowns, which allowed me to purcase any legendary tier item. And at this point I also had several of the legendary items unclocked trough random drop.

They also made a statement saying that they would look into increasing the drop rate of rare items, as well as allowing you to convert concumable items into gems, which will further decrease the amount of crowns spent per gem.

Did I read this correctly? I know you did this on PTS so the crowns were free and for testing, but 12,000 crowns is 120$. So a legendary tier item cost 120$, give or take a little for RNG.

Have you seen @MissBizz vidz? I don't think she was even that lucky xD

Bouldercleave · November 2016

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

MarkusLiberty · November 2016

Did I read this correctly? I know you did this on PTS so the crowns were free and for testing, but 12,000 crowns is 120$. So a legendary tier item cost 120$, give or take a little for RNG.

Yes, but keep in mind that I also had about 5 legendary rewards drop, two of them mounts, and a couple of apex rewards.

If they all sold for 2500 crowns, which is the regular price for mounts, the combined price would have been 10 000 crowns. And that's not incuding the 100 gems I unlocked, which would also equal a 2500 crown mount.

I was naturally pretty lucky, but if they go through with their planned changes, getting 100 gems shouldn't cost you too much.

Of course, chances are you'll still end up having to pay more for these items than if you happen to have bought them originally, but maybe that's fair?, considering these items having been advertised as limited offers when they were originally sold?

jedtb16_ESO · November 2016

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

ntheogenic · November 2016

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

WhiteCoatSyndrome · November 2016

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

It kinda does though, as each set of crates contains a limited amount of items, you will eventually get so many duplicates that your currency in gems starts growing incredibly fast.

Not necessarily true; remember the purple tier XP Scroll can drop instead of a cosmetic item, so it's possible to get no duplicates in a given Crate. As with all things RNG-related, it depends on your luck.

Also that's a LOT of money to spend just to get back to the point of 'I can buy what I want outright'. Add to that the Crates are going to be cycled out so you're also on a time limit for a given item...

Bouldercleave · November 2016

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

Skcarkden · November 2016

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

Would be, if it wasn't for the fact that technically this isn't gambling. Video Game developers have been skirting the law regarding gambling for a while now. As long as you get something, anything from each crate, it isn't classed as 'gambling' as every sane person in the world knows it to be. Even if that item is literally so useless all you can do is destroy it for nothing.

publishing odds is a requirement for gambling, and with that loophole this isn't gambling odds don't have to be published/shown.

GrumpyMuffin wrote: »

The trouble is if they say the odds are, for example 1/100 a lot of people will take that to mean that if they buy 100 crates they will be guaranteed the goodie they are after. They won't realise the 1/100 odd will reset for every new crate opened. It isn't like the lottery where if you brought enough tickets you are 100pc certain of winning. It is possible, and would be unlucky, that you could open one million crates and still not get the item you wanted (ignoring the cash back thingy on unwanted items)

Which people? And why should we care if people can't read? If someone doesn't understand the concept of probability that's on them.

jedtb16_ESO · November 2016

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

no.... you make the claim. i'm just asking for your data to back it up.

ItsGlaive · November 2016

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Did I read this correctly? I know you did this on PTS so the crowns were free and for testing, but 12,000 crowns is 120$. So a legendary tier item cost 120$, give or take a little for RNG.

Yes, but keep in mind that I also had about 5 legendary rewards drop, two of them mounts, and a couple of apex rewards.

If they all sold for 2500 crowns, which is the regular price for mounts, the combined price would have been 10 000 crowns. And that's not incuding the 100 gems I unlocked, which would also equal a 2500 crown mount.

I was naturally pretty lucky, but if they go through with their planned changes, getting 100 gems shouldn't cost you too much.

Of course, chances are you'll still end up having to pay more for these items than if you happen to have bought them originally, but maybe that's fair?, considering these items having been advertised as limited offers when they were originally sold?

Yeah see this is one of the many reasons why I won't buy crates. If I don't already own a mount or costume it's for good reason - I don't want it. Getting a mount or costume that I don't already own, don't want and can't trade in (because I didn't already own it) is just rubbing salt in the wound

Bouldercleave · November 2016

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

Do you argue just to hear yourself speak? You know that it's true

ntheogenic wrote: »

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

Bouldercleave wrote: »

I'm not sure knowing the drop rates would change anyone's thinking about the crates at all.

1) There are a WHOLE LOT of people that have no idea how odds, drop rates and RNG work

2) Those that love the idea of the crates are going to buy them anyway

3) Those who hate the idea of crates are not going to buy them anyway.

I just don't see how knowing the drop rate will change anyone's mindset. If anything, I think it will give false hope to people that don't really understand how the mechanics of it work. As @GrumpyMuffin stated already a 1 in 100 chance does not mean that you buy 100 boxes and are sure to get what you want.

who are those people?

90% of the people posting in "I refined x amount and only got y" threads.

Maybe not 90%, but quite a few

no.... you make the claim. i'm just asking for your data to back it up.

Ok then, I'll go ahead and send out a test to every person on the planet asking to write an essay on how drop rates, RNGs, and probability theory works. I'll get back to you when I get the results from the 7 billion or so responses worldwide.

Until then, I'll just have to make baseless claims using assumptions that simply equate to common sense.

KochDerDamonen · November 2016

It'd be nice if they published the odds so that the folks who are going to spend regardless can compare against them, heh.

I just want to know the turn-in rates on the consumables. I'll essentially take that as you guaranteed get that x3 per crate at minimum, as I would absolutely turn every single one back in for gems. If I play the crates, you know, maybe. I'd happily buy that spriggan-looking senche that was datamined if I could just buy it... >w>

Kendaric · November 2016

MarkusLiberty wrote: »

Did I read this correctly? I know you did this on PTS so the crowns were free and for testing, but 12,000 crowns is 120$. So a legendary tier item cost 120$, give or take a little for RNG.

Yes, but keep in mind that I also had about 5 legendary rewards drop, two of them mounts, and a couple of apex rewards.

If they all sold for 2500 crowns, which is the regular price for mounts, the combined price would have been 10 000 crowns. And that's not incuding the 100 gems I unlocked, which would also equal a 2500 crown mount.

I was naturally pretty lucky, but if they go through with their planned changes, getting 100 gems shouldn't cost you too much.

Of course, chances are you'll still end up having to pay more for these items than if you happen to have bought them originally, but maybe that's fair?, considering these items having been advertised as limited offers when they were originally sold?

And how many of those items you would have normally bought? And with how many items did you end up cluttering your collection you didn't want?
That's the problem with the crates. You end up with items you'd never have bought and can't delete, thus cluttering up your collection.

[Deleted User] · November 2016

The user and all related content has been deleted.

Bouldercleave · November 2016

GrumpyMuffin wrote: »

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

Not sure if it would technically be gambling. You are paying real money for crowna, there is no gamble there. How you spend that virtual currency in a virtual world is a different thing.

I'm in agreement that these are bad, but in terms of legal systems i think they are good.

I have little doubt that they went over the legal ramifications of these crates long before even starting to implement them.

Of course @jedtb16_ESO will want data that I have little doubt, but I can't prove it...

Skcarkden · November 2016

GrumpyMuffin wrote: »

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

Not sure if it would technically be gambling. You are paying real money for crowna, there is no gamble there. How you spend that virtual currency in a virtual world is a different thing.

I'm in agreement that these are bad, but in terms of legal systems i think they are good.

That's technically money laundering

JD2013 · November 2016

Skcarkden wrote: »

GrumpyMuffin wrote: »

Tryxus wrote: »

Wouldn't it be illegal if they didn't publish the drop rates?

Not sure if it would technically be gambling. You are paying real money for crowna, there is no gamble there. How you spend that virtual currency in a virtual world is a different thing.

I'm in agreement that these are bad, but in terms of legal systems i think they are good.

That's technically money laundering

I don't think that means what you think it means ....

And no, it is not illegal if they don't publish the drop rates. LOTS of games have never published drop rates with things like this and I am pretty certain they haven't had the police kicking their doors down ...

Acrolas · November 2016

Video games don't have to publish drop rates, because of proprietary rights. And by not having to divulge those numbers, we avoid games turning into basically mobile phone style advertising. Play this game because it has a 1% better drop rate.

Which first, those numbers aren't independently verified. Secondly, under those conditions you'd have companies taking losses just to grow customer files. Which doesn't really help anyone in the long run.

I think as gamers we already know the number suck across the board, whatever they are. We just tend to stick with the products that make the sucky numbers more enjoyable.