AfkNinja wrote: »

Wreuntzylla wrote: »

FatKidHatchets wrote: »

For anyone running the odds. It doesn't matter. The chance to dodge is always 20%, whether its 50 or 100 times in a row. Some people get a lucky patch. Its not bugged as far as I can tell from those I fight.

Yes, it's 20% per chance but think of it this way. If you roll a D6 you have an ~16.7% chance to roll a particular number. If you get it the first time, the second time, the third time, the fourth time, and the fifth time, do you start to think the die is weighted? YES. Because statistics not only applies to the chance per roll but the chance you get the SAME NUMBER EVERY CONSECUTIVE ROLL.

Each consecutive hit in the 20% zone makes the next that more improbable. Can it happen? Sure. Can it happen frequently? Of course not.

No, this is a logical fallacy called the Gamblers fallacy. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future.

Probability is only useful to know the odds of an event occurring. Missing 5 attacks in a row in no way effects the odds of missing the 6th or the 7th, it's always a 20% chance. Probability is just a way of predicting the likelihood of an event (seeing the future), it in no way changes the odds.

*sigh*

SUMMARY: WE DON'T CARE ABOUT INSTANTANEOUS OR PARTIAL SEQUENCE ODDS.

We care about full sequence odds. It's completely unimportant if someone dodges 15 times in a 5 minute fight. However, if someone dodges 15+ times in a row (without dodge rolling) we should be out of our minds. It's harder to win Powerball...

"Probability is only useful to know the odds of an event occurring."

Completely untrue. Among other things, probability is also useful to know the odds of a sequence of events occurring.

Probability of sequences refers to the probability that two or more events will occur ( as calculated before the first event). The gambler's fallacy only applies after one or more events have already occurred.

For independent, random dodges:

Odds of dodging one attack: 1 in 5 (20%)
Odds of dodging two attacks in a row: 1 in 25
Odds of dodging three attacks in a row: 1 in 125
Odds of dodging four attacks in a row: 1 in 625
Odds of dodging five attacks in a row : 1 in 3125

The odds of each consecutive dodge, as shown above, is on a 5x multiplier from the the previous. It's 1:3125 for 5 dodges and 1:30517578125 for 15 ( 1:10,000,000 x 3125). This sequence shows that, "Each consecutive [dodge] in the 20% zone makes the next that more improbable." You apparently interpreted this as, 'after consecutive dodges in the 20% zone the following dodge(s) is more improbable.' These sentences are not the same.

I haven't seen anyone in PvP dodge any amount more than normal.

What I have seen, is shuffle combined with dodge rolls...

Either way, if it is bugged, it hasn't made me lose nor have enough people exploited it for me to be effected this past month so....

*shrug* no skin off my back

buterz56 wrote: »

Wreuntzylla wrote: »

buterz56 wrote: »

Tbh all I've seen is "I'm going to make a video. I haven't tested but my friend told me and he sounded legit so I can confirm it's broken." I genuinely hope for the game's sake it's not bugged, but nobody here spending hours on the forums claiming it's broken hasn't taken 1 hour to SHOW without a doubt that something is wrong with it. Don't even show how it's done, just show someone standing with shuffle dodging at greater than 20% chance over the course of say 100-200 hits. If you spent 1 hour on a video, you'd save everyone days of arguing on the forums about something that's likely just rng.
I run shuffle, and will continue to do so until someone who knows how to replicate this bug can show that the skill is actually bugged. Until that time it's all unknown because all the testing that has been done is by people who say they fought someone they couldn't hit, but still no video proof of any of it.
I am asking somebody anybody please show me and everyone using the skill how broken it is. Or stop making posts about exploits that nobody has even proved to exist. I'm not saying it absolutely does not, but I keep hearing this come up when I'm fighting people saying I'm exploiting shuffle, but honestly have no idea what I'm doing wrong. It's pretty frustrating to be accused of exploits because people see things on the forums, and it coincides with how they felt a certain fight went, and therefore anyone that dodges with shuffle is using an exploit, but nobody has shown without a doubt that this skill is broken. If I'm wrong please prove me wrong

We have evidence. Gina specifically requested that we NOT post the evidence in these forums. They have also already deleted a couple of shuffle threads...

The absence of evidence on this forum is not the absence of evidence.

The way everyone is talking they sound definitive. Implying that you have evidence tells me that you have information that could possibly mean exploit or coincidence. If you have real proof, please send me a link. I'd really love to see it. Either way the way everyone is talking has basically lead me to believe that nobody has any hard proof, simply stories of people "exploiting". Again I'm not saying the glitch is impossible, because really any glitch is possible in eso, but I get tired of hearing stories. I want to know if I should find a replacement for a broken skill on one of my bars, or are these people just having bad experiences with the skill and all its rng
I should note that I tried a couple theories people had about how to do it, and got no results. Obviously I can't prove it's false because anyone could say I'm not doing it right, but I've seen nothing anywhere about how to do it. I'm only trying to figure out if people are justified in telling me shuffle is busted, or if it's a product of people making salty threads after having really bad luck in a few fights.

I already discussed the evidence I have and how I collected it. I take it you didn't read any of the thread... Well, go backwards young lad, go backwards.

The word on the street is that the solo arena was cleared by a record number of people this past week using shuffle. Now that is something I have no evidence of and comes third hand. But if it's true, ZoS will actually make an effort to fix it instead of blaming the players..

You should take video next time you fight him. Even that would be more legitimate than you just talking about it.....I mean come on Dude...let's just take everyone on there word. That sounds like a great idea. We live in a world where it's easy to fact check and prove stuff wrong. Yet we have nothing factual in this entire thread.

I think that @Wreuntzylla is trying to point out the conflation of two views:

Probabilities Prior to Combat

The dodge chance is 20%. Hence the chance of dodging n attacks in a row is (0.2)^n.
For example, dodging 5 attacks in a row has a probability of 1/3125 - so you wouldn't expect to see this occur, certainly not frequently

Probabilities During Combat

Your enemy just dodged four attacks in a row. The probability of him dodging your next attack is still 20% - the fact that the probabilities prior to combat states that the probability of him dodging 5 in a row is 1/3125, the probability of him dodging the next attack is unchanged. This is the Gambler's Fallacy alluded to above.

So if you're repeatedly seeing people dodge a good number of consecutive attacks, that would indicate something strange going on, given your calculation of probabilities prior to combat. However, the coding for this is, I'm sure, not as simple as making the dodge chance 20% - cooldowns, 100% dodge chance for a fraction of a second after a dodge proc etc. can all contribute to making the probabilities more complex than a straight (0.2)^n calculation.

Panth141 wrote: »

I think that @Wreuntzylla is trying to point out the conflation of two views:

Probabilities Prior to Combat

The dodge chance is 20%. Hence the chance of dodging n attacks in a row is (0.2)^n.
For example, dodging 5 attacks in a row has a probability of 1/3125 - so you wouldn't expect to see this occur, certainly not frequently

Probabilities During Combat

Your enemy just dodged four attacks in a row. The probability of him dodging your next attack is still 20% - the fact that the probabilities prior to combat states that the probability of him dodging 5 in a row is 1/3125, the probability of him dodging the next attack is unchanged. This is the Gambler's Fallacy alluded to above.

So if you're repeatedly seeing people dodge a good number of consecutive attacks, that would indicate something strange going on, given your calculation of probabilities prior to combat. However, the coding for this is, I'm sure, not as simple as making the dodge chance 20% - cooldowns, 100% dodge chance for a fraction of a second after a dodge proc etc. can all contribute to making the probabilities more complex than a straight (0.2)^n calculation.

You are correct as to the math!

With respect to a more complicated underpinning, there are about 10 different posters that have supposedly tested shuffle and state that the result is almost exactly 20%. That would indicate an independent variable, no?

AfkNinja wrote: »

Wreuntzylla wrote: »

"Each consecutive [dodge] in the 20% zone makes the next that more improbable."

This is the only thing I had a problem with. Consecutive dodges DON'T INFLUENCE THE NEXT DODGE. Every dodge is 20%, probability can only tell us how likely this is to happen BEFORE it happens. When dodging attacks the dodge before is irrelevant as every single attack has the exact same 20% chance to dodge. It's always 20%, doesn't matter if you dodge 100 times in a row, the next attack still has a 20% chance to be avoided. The odds of it happening are stupidly low and that's what probability tells us, however the odds of something happening do not influence or prevent it from happening.

Except you were responding to a post that begins with, "Yes, it's 20% per chance[.]" Quote mining is great if you are a politician, not so much otherwise.

I have noticed some ridiculous amounts of dodges as well. Unless people have figured out how to animation cancel dodge. Then there is obvs something wrong.

I keep lurking on this thread looking for further information from ZOS about this...

It sucks being labeled a cheater for using what is simply a good skill. And it sucks when all these people scream exploit and throw out arbitrary numbers and % chances that they arrived at by "testing."

Why not just tell ZOS how to do it?

Rylana wrote: »

Waffennacht wrote: »

I haven't seen anyone in PvP dodge any amount more than normal.

What I have seen, is shuffle combined with dodge rolls...

Either way, if it is bugged, it hasn't made me lose nor have enough people exploited it for me to be effected this past month so....

*shrug* no skin off my back

Go fight a DC player on Haderus PC NA with four letters in his name, one of which is a special character. Pay attention to how often anything you throw at him actually connects.

You will commonly find him and his kin around Chal milegate.

Then check back with me with that crow still hanging out of your mouth.


He is but one example, on NA this has become rampant across all factions. I know what a dodge roll looks like, I know what LOS is, I know all about every other mechanic, but open field, straight in line of sight, 8-15 missed attacks in a row over a span of 5-10 seconds. Really? And its consistent, I MIGHT get one to hit him now and then and usually when one actually does hit him and knock him down or otherwise stop his movement, he drops like a sack of potatoes. Its pure and total abuse of a broken mechanic and nothing more.

This has crossed over into deniers ludicrous territory at this point. Desperate to protect their broken thing, they swarm the threads about it. This isnt some mystery chain of 2 to 5 attacks that might fall under RNG or other babble to justify, this is turning into the famous sorc no damage exploit from last year with another well known player.

The more I ponder it, the more I am convinced its exactly like the old sorc/vampire invulnerability bug, hell maybe its even triggered the exact same way.

Apparently people don't read signatures but Im console, which makes me wonder now if any console players have experienced this?

I use a bow often and I have seen many times that targets dodge my arrows three, four even 5 times in a row.
What I learned is this, don't waste that third arrow on targets that dodge and more important... put evasion on my bar.
My survivability as a stamina dragonknight has gone up substantially, just keep up ignious shield, shuffle and apply wings when required, jump in the zerg, spam whirlwind and get AP. Love it

When in trouble? Dodge

@Lava_Croft where the nightblades using 5 or more pieces of medium armor?

I am not 100% convinced that Shuffle is bugged, but I am getting there slowly x_x