Is shuffle working right

Vaoh

krathos wrote: »

Can someone PM me the steps to reproduce? If I can confirm it actually exists then I can avoid it/remove shuffle from my bar but unless I can see a video or get personal proof of it being bugged then I will remain a skeptic.

The Shuffle bug won't just happen. You can use Shuffle as normal and will probably never have this happen to you. The exploit involves a bit more than just slotting the skill, meaning you have to go out of your way to do it.

You're good man. Keep using Shuffle!

FatKidHatchets

For anyone running the odds. It doesn't matter. The chance to dodge is always 20%, whether its 50 or 100 times in a row. Some people get a lucky patch. Its not bugged as far as I can tell from those I fight.

Wreuntzylla

FatKidHatchets wrote: »

For anyone running the odds. It doesn't matter. The chance to dodge is always 20%, whether its 50 or 100 times in a row. Some people get a lucky patch. Its not bugged as far as I can tell from those I fight.

Yes, it's 20% per chance but think of it this way. If you roll a D6 you have an ~16.7% chance to roll a particular number. If you get it the first time, the second time, the third time, the fourth time, and the fifth time, do you start to think the die is weighted? YES. Because statistics not only applies to the chance per roll but the chance you get the SAME NUMBER EVERY CONSECUTIVE ROLL.

Each consecutive hit in the 20% zone makes the next that more improbable. Can it happen? Sure. Can it happen frequently? Of course not.

ryanborror

Playing my Stam dk I've noticed in the past couple days npcs dodging my attacks way more than usual. They know too much. We must stop the robots!

AddictionX

krathos wrote: »

Can someone PM me the steps to reproduce? If I can confirm it actually exists then I can avoid it/remove shuffle from my bar but unless I can see a video or get personal proof of it being bugged then I will remain a skeptic.

I dont think they'll show us.

Komma

So I decided to slot shuffle yesterday and give it a whirl. I rarely saw a dodge. It (used normally) seems to be working fine. If you want to call the people pointing out exploits liars then so be it. I realize many would rather keep them under the hat to use because they arent as super god like players as they think they are. When we commonly see players dodging multiple meaning 10+ in a row and not once roll dodging...there is something terribly wrong.

glavius

I can in no way reproduce the shuffle bug. Not against animation cancelled attacks, not by casting shuffle multiple times.
And I never ran into anyone I couldn't kill due to excessive dodge rolling.
So if there is a bug it's not common at all.
Most of the people whining are probably just seeing multiple dodges due to someone dodge rolling.
And bear in mind, if an attack is dodged, theres a 4% chance that the next 2 attacks will also be. That's something that will happen quite often.

HoloYoitsu

glavius wrote: »

I can in no way reproduce the shuffle bug. Not against animation cancelled attacks, not by casting shuffle multiple times.
And I never ran into anyone I couldn't kill due to excessive dodge rolling.
So if there is a bug it's not common at all.
Most of the people whining are probably just seeing multiple dodges due to someone dodge rolling.
And bear in mind, if an attack is dodged, theres a 4% chance that the next 2 attacks will also be. That's something that will happen quite often.

Except for the fact that most of the people complaining are also specifically stating that the instances in question are happening against people who did not dodge roll at all. Have you just been selectively skipping over that bit over and over?

glavius

Well, never had that happen to me. Not saying it never happens, but can not be very common at all. Could also be a laggy server not showing you the guy is dodging, even though he is. I avoid the 999+ latency servers like the plague, so could be related to lag on those only..

Xsorus

As someone who runs the Mirage on a NB..and Shuffle on a stamina user..

you would honestly have to be blind not to notice the difference between the two.

Waffennacht

Xsorus wrote: »

As someone who runs the Mirage on a NB..and Shuffle on a stamina user..

you would honestly have to be blind not to notice the difference between the two.

Ok so you're saying that the two work differently, or are you saying there is an exploit? I could very easily see the two working differently when they shouldn't.

The strangest thing I've noted is, every exploit i've heard of i've been able to find on some other medium than the forums. I cannot with this one.

Vaoh

Waffennacht wrote: »

Xsorus wrote: »

As someone who runs the Mirage on a NB..and Shuffle on a stamina user..

you would honestly have to be blind not to notice the difference between the two.

Ok so you're saying that the two work differently, or are you saying there is an exploit? I could very easily see the two working differently when they shouldn't.

The strangest thing I've noted is, every exploit i've heard of i've been able to find on some other medium than the forums. I cannot with this one.

Correct. You cannot, and for good reason:

1) It is very useful to exploit it, so the very few that know about it won't tell anyone how to do it or else it spreads, ends up elsewhere other than these forums, and soon becomes common knowledge.
2) Those who don't care about gaining an unfair advantage should be messaging the Devs (like I did) everything they know about it instead of letting the entire population know. ZOS will not fix it fast no matter what. Look at lag in PvP. Zero [Snip] given.
3) You have two sides regarding this exploit: a. The players thinking it is a rumor/fake and b. The players who had someone normally dodge their attacks and are angry about it. This turns the discussion from contacting ZOS and the exploit into something that might as well be a rumor.
4) It is so little known that most players have probably never encountered it, or zerged down someone who did with undodgeable attacks and AoEs. Lends to the "Its a rumor" stance.

Anti_Virus

Komma wrote: »

We see differently because we play the game. People dodging 10 to 20 times in a row is not rng for 20%. Funny thing is that it is seen from certain people more than others. There is something broke with dodge. Why is it always our responsibility to find it? It is so game breaking that...imo...dodge should be removed and only roll dodge be left in game.

NO then stam builds would die. If roll dodge wasn't nerfed then I would agree.

And yes with 20% chance IT IS possible to dodge alot. Engine Guardian has a 10% proc chance and it procs alot too.

kadar

What, no one who actually knows how to perform the exploit sent ZOS a PM? If this is a real exploit that easily performed, like ppl seem to believe, why was ZOS unable to replicate it?

I want this fixed, but not for the reason most people do. People are getting out their torches and pitch forks over this! Any player that is using Shuffle is "an [snip] exploiter." I'm sick and tired of the whining.

Vangy

I've been using shuffle for a week. Done everything I can think of lol.

1. crouchy blocky cast cast... Dosent work
2. Cast cast casty cast. Dosent work.
3. Jump dodge roll casty cast. Dosent work..

If there is indeed a shuffle bug, it has to be some epic method.... All shuffle does for me is whats stated on tooltip... =(

Sord

If this dodge chance is happening so much why doesn't someone just post a video about it? If you run a current nvidia card use that shadowplay record option and post it to Youtube it is pretty easy. If you can't do that find some other way to prove it Screenshots with FTC combat logs, something. No one has shown any proof so please cough it up and prove it.

Laggus

Waffennacht wrote: »

Xsorus wrote: »

As someone who runs the Mirage on a NB..and Shuffle on a stamina user..

you would honestly have to be blind not to notice the difference between the two.

Ok so you're saying that the two work differently, or are you saying there is an exploit? I could very easily see the two working differently when they shouldn't.

The strangest thing I've noted is, every exploit i've heard of i've been able to find on some other medium than the forums. I cannot with this one.

There's been at least 2 posts describing how to do it which were then deleted by GMs. Why when the Devs say its not bugged is a question? It involves doing 2 things and has been properly bug reported by people able to replicate it repeatdly.

PhatGrimReaper

Just to be clear... if you flip a coin 50 times and get heads each time the next flip is still 50/50.

Johngo0036

@ZOS_GinaBruno - I was fighting a DK this weekend and he managed to dodge of my attacks in a row whilst my shuffle i was getting hit every shot..

I think you guys need to look into this RNG thing as it is not working in a fair manner..

There is a post on monster helms and RNG and many other instances where RNG jus SUCKS...

Also putting Training traits on VR16 gear is seriously a slap in the face of the players.

Lava_Croft

If Shuffle is not bugged, then why has there been no complaints about the Nightblade skill Blur, which provides the exact same 20% Dodge buff?

Because you can clearly notice that Shuffle makes you dodge attacks a whole lot more than Blur does.

CowboyOfEld

God... why you people don't go look for some basics math?

Definition:
Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.
Multiplication Rule 1:
When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B ) = P(A) · P(B )

Basics of coin tossing:

probability of ONE head is 50%... so 0.5 (0 to 1 range)
probability of TWO CONSECUTIVE heads is 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25 (25%)
probability of THREE CONSECUTIVE heads is 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.125 (12%)

got it?

EsoRecon

Komma wrote: »

We see differently because we play the game. People dodging 10 to 20 times in a row is not rng for 20%. Funny thing is that it is seen from certain people more than others. There is something broke with dodge. Why is it always our responsibility to find it? It is so game breaking that...imo...dodge should be removed and only roll dodge be left in game.

We should just take out shields while we are at it. U know, to even the playing field.

Xeven

@ZOS_GinaBruno

My testing and gut feeling suggest that shuffle works like dodge roll. When it procs, you dodge everything in a short window of time. So, if your light attack procs shuffle, your following crushing shock will always miss. This behavior alone puts shuffle far higher than 20% which is backed up by my own tests.

That said, this behavior does not explain dodging 7 attacks in a row. At 20%, the odds of dodging 7 attacks in a row are 1 in 78,125.

In other words, you are 26 times more likely to be struck by lightning at least once in your lifetime (1 in 3000).

OdinForge

Xeven wrote: »

@ZOS_GinaBruno

My testing and gut feeling suggest that shuffle works like dodge roll. When it procs, you dodge everything in a short window of time. So, if your light attack procs shuffle, your following crushing shock will always miss. This behavior alone puts shuffle far higher than 20% which is backed up by my own tests.

That said, this behavior does not explain dodging 7 attacks in a row. At 20%, the odds of dodging 7 attacks in a row are 1 in 78,125.

In other words, you are 26 times more likely to be struck by lightning at least once in your lifetime (1 in 3000).

When we were testing dodge chance the other day, we noticed this also with channels like jabs and flurry. But it worked with Blur as well, not just shuffle.

If the target dodges the first or one of the attacks in the channel, the attack immediately after (within the same channel) would dodge as well consistently.

glavius

Dodging a hit will not make you dodge a hit right after. I tested with almost 500 animation cancelled attacks (light attack, skill, bash) and dodge chance was at 21%. Note I did not test a channel.

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AfkNinja

Wreuntzylla wrote: »

FatKidHatchets wrote: »

For anyone running the odds. It doesn't matter. The chance to dodge is always 20%, whether its 50 or 100 times in a row. Some people get a lucky patch. Its not bugged as far as I can tell from those I fight.

Yes, it's 20% per chance but think of it this way. If you roll a D6 you have an ~16.7% chance to roll a particular number. If you get it the first time, the second time, the third time, the fourth time, and the fifth time, do you start to think the die is weighted? YES. Because statistics not only applies to the chance per roll but the chance you get the SAME NUMBER EVERY CONSECUTIVE ROLL.

Each consecutive hit in the 20% zone makes the next that more improbable. Can it happen? Sure. Can it happen frequently? Of course not.

No, this is a logical fallacy called the Gamblers fallacy. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future.

Probability is only useful to know the odds of an event occurring. Missing 5 attacks in a row in no way effects the odds of missing the 6th or the 7th, it's always a 20% chance. Probability is just a way of predicting the likelihood of an event (seeing the future), it in no way changes the odds.

PhatGrimReaper

AfkNinja wrote: »

Wreuntzylla wrote: »

FatKidHatchets wrote: »

For anyone running the odds. It doesn't matter. The chance to dodge is always 20%, whether its 50 or 100 times in a row. Some people get a lucky patch. Its not bugged as far as I can tell from those I fight.

Yes, it's 20% per chance but think of it this way. If you roll a D6 you have an ~16.7% chance to roll a particular number. If you get it the first time, the second time, the third time, the fourth time, and the fifth time, do you start to think the die is weighted? YES. Because statistics not only applies to the chance per roll but the chance you get the SAME NUMBER EVERY CONSECUTIVE ROLL.

Each consecutive hit in the 20% zone makes the next that more improbable. Can it happen? Sure. Can it happen frequently? Of course not.

No, this is a logical fallacy called the Gamblers fallacy. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future.

Probability is only useful to know the odds of an event occurring. Missing 5 attacks in a row in no way effects the odds of missing the 6th or the 7th, it's always a 20% chance. Probability is just a way of predicting the likelihood of an event (seeing the future), it in no way changes the odds.

I think we watched the same Doco about Casinos!!

Anti_Virus

All these "shuffle exploit" threads are just people that want stam builds removed from the game.

There is nothing wrong with shuffle its a static 20% dodge chance which isn't as reliable as a dmg shield that is uncritical and stacks.

The dodge chance gives stam builds just a little bit of survivability since the dodge roll nerf so all this QQ is unnecessary.

buterz56

Tbh all I've seen is "I'm going to make a video. I haven't tested but my friend told me and he sounded legit so I can confirm it's broken." I genuinely hope for the game's sake it's not bugged, but nobody here spending hours on the forums claiming it's broken hasn't taken 1 hour to SHOW without a doubt that something is wrong with it. Don't even show how it's done, just show someone standing with shuffle dodging at greater than 20% chance over the course of say 100-200 hits. If you spent 1 hour on a video, you'd save everyone days of arguing on the forums about something that's likely just rng.
I run shuffle, and will continue to do so until someone who knows how to replicate this bug can show that the skill is actually bugged. Until that time it's all unknown because all the testing that has been done is by people who say they fought someone they couldn't hit, but still no video proof of any of it.
I am asking somebody anybody please show me and everyone using the skill how broken it is. Or stop making posts about exploits that nobody has even proved to exist. I'm not saying it absolutely does not, but I keep hearing this come up when I'm fighting people saying I'm exploiting shuffle, but honestly have no idea what I'm doing wrong. It's pretty frustrating to be accused of exploits because people see things on the forums, and it coincides with how they felt a certain fight went, and therefore anyone that dodges with shuffle is using an exploit, but nobody has shown without a doubt that this skill is broken. If I'm wrong please prove me wrong