It depends; that isn't enough information to decide.

I have a friend who tested this out when he got his ice staff. And yes, it does do more DPS.

Of course, if you're a Dunmer DK, you'll probably still want to stick with fire, but otherwise, there really isn't substantial disadvantage with ice. The main difference is with fully-charged heavies, but, seriously, how many fully-charged heavies anyway do you use, anyway?

Use the sharpened Maelstrom staff

When comparing between a non-set ninrhoned staff and a sharpened Maelstrom staff we need to consider the spell damage equivalence of the additional 4% penetration. This can be done by calculating the spell damage equivalence of penetration. Let T1 be the base damage with spell damage, S0, and additional spell damage, S1, and T2 be the base damage with spell damage, S0, with no extra spell damage but additional %Penetration. Then

where a is the skill coefficient and b is ~10.5. I’ve separated the mitigation formula into two parts as follows

We then need to find S1 when T1=T2

For a Sorcerer at the CP cap with 5 Julianos, 2 Kena, 3 Willpower and assuming 3 Sorcerer abilities equipped, I predict a max magicka of 43487 and spell damage of 3352. If we then use a typical boss value of 18k, flat penetration of 5063 (100 base, 4884 concentration, 79 (1 point) Spell Erosion) then 4% penetration is estimated to be equivalent to

This is less than the Maelstrom enchantment thus a sharpened Maelstrom staff is preferred over a non-set nirnhoned staff.

It depends on the resistance of the mob. For most bosses a nirnhoned staff will be superior. However I'm not so certain of the resistance of trash mobs so I'm not confident on that part

Using the average damage formula

It is possible to calculate the threshold resistance when nirnhoned is better than sharpened

Using some of the values from before and a critical chance of 65% and a critical modifier of 0.69, the threshold resistance is

I think it's ridiculous that the vMA destro staff is more times than not out classed by almost any Nirnhorned staff.

Nirnhorned has become a rather easy trait to get, especially when compared to a good roll on a vMA staff.

And for Asayre's calculations the only trait that can even complete with a Nirnhorned trait is sharpened, but if you account for the 3rd set item bonus a Nirnhorned staff can give it wins out in every position other than when running a 2 piece monster set. (You can run 2 pcs Torug Pact or any 2 pieces that gives max Magicka in your gear line up) and when factoring that in you're gaining way more than the 43 spell damage equivalent that the Sharpened vMA staff provides.

Rather frustrating if you ask me.

(Disclaimer I don't know the numbers for precise vMA staff vs Nirnhorned but I believe I read Nirnhorned is higher DPS in most scenarios)

Especially with that laughable enchant for wall of elements