Console Release: Worst Case Scenario

WraithAzraiel · April 2015

I love this game. I want to see it succeed, I enjoy it. I also have absolutely no desire to make the switch to console once released. MMO's on a PS4/XBone aren't attractive to me.

But that's just me. I'm sure the new generation (and a few of the older gen) gamers will appreciate that they're being so strongly regarded with the decision to release this awesome game, on the next-gen systems.

But what if:

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Not in terms of content but overall expectations and hype. Expected to do great things, then disappoint with massive amounts of game-breaking bugs, or whatever.

What if the launch just doesn't generate as much revenue as the projections indicated it would based on Skyrim console sales and hundreds of man hours spent surveying console gamers at Cons and wherever else ZOS acquired their market data warranting the decision to make console such a massive undertaking?

What happens to ESO as a whole?

Do they take the hit on the chin and drive on or will this cripple them if it's not well received?

I would really REALLY hate for this game to go away because console failed or didn't do as well as was required.

Now, this might just be my whole "hope for the best, plan for the worst" bit playing out in my head but I'd really like to hear the thoughts of others on the matter.

Especially: @ZOS_JessicaFolsom (if available) @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JasonLeavey or even, if possible, @ZOS_PaulSage just about any official reassurance would be greatly appreciated.

I want ESO to last for a damn long time.

Tell me it will.

jkemmery · April 2015

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

I love this game. I want to see it succeed, I enjoy it. I also have absolutely no desire to make the switch to console once released. MMO's on a PS4/XBone aren't attractive to me.

But that's just me. I'm sure the new generation (and a few of the older gen) gamers will appreciate that they're being so strongly regarded with the decision to release this awesome game, on the next-gen systems.

But what if:

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

What if the launch just doesn't generate as much revenue as the projections indicated it would based on Skyrim console sales and hundreds of man hours spent surveying console gamers at Cons and wherever else ZOS acquired their market data warranting the decision to make console such a massive undertaking?

What happens to ESO as a whole?

Do they take the hit on the chin and drive on or will this cripple them if it's not well received?

I would really REALLY hate for this game to go away because console failed or didn't do as well as was required.

Now, this might just be my whole "hope for the best, plan for the worst" bit playing out in my head but I'd really like to hear the thoughts of others on the matter.

Especially: @ZOS_JessicaFolsom (if available) @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JasonLeavey or even, if possible, @ZOS_PaulSage just about any official reassurance would be greatly appreciated.

I want ESO to last for a damn long time.

Tell me it will.

I'm sure ZOS does too, and they are doing their best to ensure it does: peoples' jobs and careers are at stake. No one can see the future, but I assure you ZOS is doing all they can to ensure your wish comes true.

WraithAzraiel · April 2015

Oh I know they are, but at this point next month, it's out of their hands. It's a business so I'm sure contingencies are in place (I hope) but still, an official word on this to assuage the concerns of those that care enough would be nice.

djyrb · April 2015

It's hard to know until it actually releases, but I don't think that putting it off a year from the original June 2014 release date is going to help in any way. It was obviously not ready then (nor was PC arguably), but I'm sure that a ton of marketing momentum was lost as far back as last summer. I wonder how many people that were potential customers at that time simply forgot about or aren't interested in ESO, despite the new B2P model.

Either way, with the Crown Store and ESO Plus in place as backups, I suspect ZOS is going in "all or nothing" with consoles, and their level of success on those platforms will impact the PC version as well.

vovus69 · April 2015

Don't worry - it always will be initial uptick in console players. There is a fraction of them who as a lemmings are moving to each new game. They will leave eventually in couple of months leaving ~5% of the peak numbers, but you can count on 3-4 M console players in the beginning. No matter how *** game is. And this game is great, so it might be even more than that... Will see.

NewBlacksmurf · April 2015

Considering those who copy over to console don't loose anything on PC...people loose $20.
ZOS makes a few million and allows Xbox to keep the server up...works out something on Sony's end and all is well

The worse case scenario is that it's cancelled for console. Anything else will be more $ for Zenimax especially if they drop expansions for all within 45-60 days

izenkim_ESO · April 2015

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

I don't understand how it could "fail to deliver". Destiny was expected to do great things, and sold a ton of games before people were disappointed. It was the unknown that caught Destiny players off guard.

ESO is not unknown. It's been out over a year, there is no mystery as to what it will contain. They aren't going remove the story lines, like Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown, at launch.

NewBlacksmurf · April 2015

izenkim_ESO wrote: »

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

I don't understand how it could "fail to deliver". Destiny was expected to do great things, and sold a ton of games before people were disappointed. It was the unknown that caught Destiny players off guard.

ESO is not unknown. It's been out over a year, there is no mystery as to what it will contain. They aren't going remove the story lines, like Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown, at launch.

The Charlie a brown ref deserves a gif meme!!!

Rook_Master · April 2015

Then the very next day Gold Tempers will appear in the Crown Store.

Obscure · April 2015

Zenimax Media as a business has two major intellectual properties: Fallout and The Elder Scrolls.

Failure of either is the failure of their primary source of growth. ESO as it stands cannot afford to fail, and from the looks of it, I don't think failure is going to occur. Reception doesn't look like it's going to be great, and it's almost certainly not going to meet projections in the wake of what's going on in the console market, (breakdown of consumer confidence via Destiny, The Order, Assassin's Creed, etc.) but failure is simply not an option for ESO or anything with the Elder Scrolls name on it.

Money spent on ESO, no matter the amount, is an investment in maintaining the Elder Scrolls brand going forward into the future. Naturally the less they spend the more profitable they can be, but it's a main player in their business whether they like it or not. It's really not a matter of Zenimax being able to afford supporting continued development of ESO, they can't afford not to. The ramifications on the IP would result in greater losses in the future than they would take in the present.

Damage the brands image now, and they'll do irreparable damage to future Elder Scrolls titles. I'm certain they're extremely aware of this, and working their asses off to make sure the game is as good as they can. The current state of the game really and truly comes down to the skill of their Project Managers and Quality Assurance team...and the clock is not on their side.

RedTalon · April 2015

Given the reviews and what people aren expecting, really wouldn't worry about it going like Destiny no one has the bar set that high.

The worse thing that could happen is the pc to console transfers don't happen on time.

Anyone know how sells for the consoles are going anyhow?

Audigy · April 2015

The question is, who would really play an ES game on a console, especially as an MMO?

For me consoles work well with party games such as Mario Party or sports games like Fifa, but strategy or RPG and then as an MMO where you need the ability to chat and use a mouse?

I just don't see how someone is supposed to play these games with a controller, but this is a topic I also never understood with D3. It feels so clunky and weird, but the same I always said about shooters and Halo has proven me wrong there, as it for whatever reason seems to work for todays console heroes.

So even if you and I @Wraithazraiel feel that consoles are weird to play such games on, I am sure ZOS wouldn't release ESO on them if the market wouldn't be there. I guess for minors playing on a console is much better and cheaper, but also for those who are not very technical with PCs. After all, you only put the DVD in and start playing - I always enjoyed that at Fifa & co or with TR as a child.

What doesn't work for us, can work for others

However, I want to point out one thing. To make games on consoles is much easier for a programmer than for PC´s, so at least from this perspective games will run much smoother on PS4 and Xbox than on PC and due this, making games for consoles is cheaper for a company in the long run.

AngryNord · April 2015

Worst Case scenario: ESO is a total failure on console, Zenimax turns out not to have a "Plan B" and just lets it hangle for perhaps a year or so before shutting down. Bethesda, realising the damage this has done to the Elder Scrolls name, decides to rush TES:VI out of the door in order to repair the damage, but this means ES:VI ends up even more buggy and unfinished than Skyrim, and thereby cause even MORE damage to the Elder Scrolls name. They have now 1) pissed off the Fallout fans by postponing Fallout 4 even further and 2) Possibly ruined their biggest franchise for good.

(No, I don't think this will happen).

izenkim_ESO · April 2015

Worst Case Scenario: giant ants. June 9th a massive number of people are excited to have a console MMO for the summer, ESO sets a first day launch sales record. June 10th, giant ants.

Casdha · April 2015

In a worst case scenario (and i know this is just dreaming) They have a patch ready to convert it to a stand alone game (no need for servers if they go offline) Convert Online to LAN support and milk the TES crowd for generations to come for game purchases only.

Of course this is real worst case of not being able to keep the servers up and running.

Edit: Under this scenario they could still sell DLC if they so choose.

Pallmor · April 2015

I don't see much point in worrying about it. Either:

a) It does better than expected--which will could ensure the long-term viability of the game, but could mean that all future content will focus on the console first-and-foremost

or

b) It does worse than expected--which could affect the long-term viability of the game, but will ensure than future content and changes will be PC-focused anyway.

Either way, there will be upsides and downsides for both PC and console players. And either way, it's probably already set in stone. So there's not much we can do about it. It's all in the marketing people's hands now.

Pallmor · April 2015

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Considering those who copy over to console don't loose anything on PC...people loose $20.
ZOS makes a few million and allows Xbox to keep the server up...works out something on Sony's end and all is well

The worse case scenario is that it's cancelled for console. Anything else will be more $ for Zenimax especially if they drop expansions for all within 45-60 days

I'll probably be spending the $20 even though I know it's a gamble. I've been skeptical that the console version will ever actually materialize for a long time now. I'm also fully aware that it could be as buggy as an anthill at release, or that the whole thing could go belly-up at some point in the near future. But $20 isn't much to risk at this point. And I hate the thought of having to start over again on the console and lose all the work I've put into my main alt.

WraithAzraiel · April 2015

izenkim_ESO wrote: »

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

I don't understand how it could "fail to deliver". Destiny was expected to do great things, and sold a ton of games before people were disappointed. It was the unknown that caught Destiny players off guard.

ESO is not unknown. It's been out over a year, there is no mystery as to what it will contain. They aren't going remove the story lines, like Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown, at launch.

Oh I was only likening the feeling of disappointment, not the lack of content. I know there's content to be had.

Obscure · April 2015

RedTalon wrote: »

Anyone know how sells for the consoles are going anyhow?

In Japan they just hit a console sales figure so low in January it's not been seen since the 90's. In perspective that was an era still rebounding from huge problems with the gaming market with regard to abysmal software quality and near absolute loss of consumer confidence in the entire gaming industry.

In the US, where XBox has historically been much more favoured, the price drop of the console has improved overall console sales figures. Again in perspective, consumers are not making the step up as fast as anticipated, with XBox 360 and PS3 software sales still being a heavy contender with modern generation consoles.

In all cases though, the current generation consoles are the slowest selling flagship consoles to date, with the Wii U being the slowest selling flagship console of all time. The console market isn't necessarily shrinking, but it's certainly hit a wall with the traditional console model. Market saturation is at a critical mass, and unless traditional consoles start finding their way into new markets, they cannot grow, and the longer that remains the case the larger their biggest competitor will grow: the mobile gaming market. Stream play and cloud processing services are going to deal a death blow to traditional consoles. The consoles we see today are very likely the last of their kind, but the war will very likely still have the same contenders with one or two falling out of the arms race and a new one joining the fray (much like the death of Sega's hardware division and arrival of Microsoft).

WraithAzraiel · April 2015

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

izenkim_ESO wrote: »

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

I don't understand how it could "fail to deliver". Destiny was expected to do great things, and sold a ton of games before people were disappointed. It was the unknown that caught Destiny players off guard.

ESO is not unknown. It's been out over a year, there is no mystery as to what it will contain. They aren't going remove the story lines, like Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown, at launch.

The Charlie a brown ref deserves a gif meme!!!

Xithian · April 2015

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

ESO has been out for how long? It is literally not possible to have a similar launch because everyone knows what to expect as far as gameplay and story.

The only real deciding factor left is how well the controls work on console. While the lack of controller support on PC this close to console release does not fill me with confidence, I think it's going to work out alright. The only real worry is the inventory system.

As a side note, as depressing as the Destiny release was for gamers, last time I looked it was still on the top 3 list on XBox One for hours played. It's not exactly a flop. People still forked over their money, and they're still playing the game.

Ojustaboo · April 2015

Xithian wrote: »

As a side note, as depressing as the Destiny release was for gamers, last time I looked it was still on the top 3 list on XBox One for hours played. It's not exactly a flop. People still forked over their money, and they're still playing the game.

Yep, I love playing it on my PS4 too

WraithAzraiel · April 2015

Xithian wrote: »

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

ESO has been out for how long? It is literally not possible to have a similar launch because everyone knows what to expect as far as gameplay and story.

The only real deciding factor left is how well the controls work on console. While the lack of controller support on PC this close to console release does not fill me with confidence, I think it's going to work out alright. The only real worry is the inventory system.

As a side note, as depressing as the Destiny release was for gamers, last time I looked it was still on the top 3 list on XBox One for hours played. It's not exactly a flop. People still forked over their money, and they're still playing the game.

Again, I'm not relating it to Destiny in terms of content, I'm relating it in terms of disappointment. What happens if the console UI blows and drives players away? That's a disappointment. What if finding groups is exponentially more difficult on consoles? (totally probable) That's a disappointment.

I'll amend the original post so as to not confuse any more people.

ThatNeonZebraAgain · April 2015

Casdha wrote: »

In a worst case scenario (and i know this is just dreaming) They have a patch ready to convert it to a stand alone game (no need for servers if they go offline) Convert Online to LAN support and milk the TES crowd for generations to come for game purchases only.

Of course this is real worst case of not being able to keep the servers up and running.

Edit: Under this scenario they could still sell DLC if they so choose.

This is actually really interesting. Make it standalone, turn it over to the modding/LAN communities, and people would play it for a decade or more. You could easily make battlegrounds, have tournaments, LAN parties, etc. Basically Counterstrike but RPG form. Not that I want to see that happen, but still, interesting (and I'm sure all that it way way way more complicated than it sounds anyways, and probably not realistic).

Pallmor · April 2015

Obscure wrote: »

Zenimax Media as a business has two major intellectual properties: Fallout and The Elder Scrolls.

Failure of either is the failure of their primary source of growth. ESO as it stands cannot afford to fail, and from the looks of it, I don't think failure is going to occur.

Yeah, I suspect that the June press conference that Bethesda is having will be as much to promote the new console release of ESO than to announce and promote Fallout 4. The timing of the ESO console release and press conference certainly isn't coincidental. That should give ESO a nice boost if they can just get it done on time.

Xithian · April 2015

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

Again, I'm not relating it to Destiny in terms of content, I'm relating it in terms of disappointment.

My point was, as per your analogy of Destiny release, that gamers seem more and more willing to put up with disappointment and still shell out money. Honestly my worry is that the console release will be just that...a cash grab. Doesn't matter if people still play, they already paid for the game. And if it's the differences between console and PC that push that decision, then most of those people will just come back to the PC version. They actually might get new players (and new PC sales) this way as well.

I'm not saying it's good. I'm saying that as long as they can get enough to cover their losses it isn't really going to make much difference to the people making the decisions.

Or this could all just be me trying not to get my hopes up.

Xithian · April 2015

izenkim_ESO wrote: »

I don't understand how it could "fail to deliver". Destiny was expected to do great things, and sold a ton of games before people were disappointed. It was the unknown that caught Destiny players off guard.

The biggest worry is how the UI will handle on console, without a keyboard and mouse. It already has several issues on the PC version that make it a pain. (Bank stacking...looking at you)

If there was a cut and clear path for the UI/controller rework then they would have released controller support on the PC version as a field test *before* going to console. It doesn't look like that's happening, so that's where the "unknown" comes in. In ways it could be a bigger let down because a lot of people jumping to the console version will have already been playing, and loving, the PC version. For that reason I'm glad they're doing account copies.

Pallmor · April 2015

Obscure wrote: »

RedTalon wrote: »

Anyone know how sells for the consoles are going anyhow?

In Japan they just hit a console sales figure so low in January it's not been seen since the 90's. In perspective that was an era still rebounding from huge problems with the gaming market with regard to abysmal software quality and near absolute loss of consumer confidence in the entire gaming industry.

In the US, where XBox has historically been much more favoured, the price drop of the console has improved overall console sales figures. Again in perspective, consumers are not making the step up as fast as anticipated, with XBox 360 and PS3 software sales still being a heavy contender with modern generation consoles.

In all cases though, the current generation consoles are the slowest selling flagship consoles to date, with the Wii U being the slowest selling flagship console of all time. The console market isn't necessarily shrinking, but it's certainly hit a wall with the traditional console model. Market saturation is at a critical mass, and unless traditional consoles start finding their way into new markets, they cannot grow, and the longer that remains the case the larger their biggest competitor will grow: the mobile gaming market. Stream play and cloud processing services are going to deal a death blow to traditional consoles. The consoles we see today are very likely the last of their kind, but the war will very likely still have the same contenders with one or two falling out of the arms race and a new one joining the fray (much like the death of Sega's hardware division and arrival of Microsoft).

I'm not sure what universe you're posting from, but in mine, consoles are selling even faster in this gen than in the last one:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2477888,00.asp

ZOS_UlyssesW · April 2015

Hello folks.
We have had to edit or remove several comments in this thread. We ask that everyone stay focused on the topic at hand and avoid derailing the conversation or dissuading other community members from sharing their feedback. Thank you for your understanding.

Aeladiir · April 2015

jkemmery wrote: »

WraithAzraiel wrote: »

I love this game. I want to see it succeed, I enjoy it. I also have absolutely no desire to make the switch to console once released. MMO's on a PS4/XBone aren't attractive to me.

But that's just me. I'm sure the new generation (and a few of the older gen) gamers will appreciate that they're being so strongly regarded with the decision to release this awesome game, on the next-gen systems.

But what if:

What if ESO: TU Console launch goes the way of Destiny? Expected to do great things, then fail to deliver.

What if the launch just doesn't generate as much revenue as the projections indicated it would based on Skyrim console sales and hundreds of man hours spent surveying console gamers at Cons and wherever else ZOS acquired their market data warranting the decision to make console such a massive undertaking?

What happens to ESO as a whole?

Do they take the hit on the chin and drive on or will this cripple them if it's not well received?

I would really REALLY hate for this game to go away because console failed or didn't do as well as was required.

Now, this might just be my whole "hope for the best, plan for the worst" bit playing out in my head but I'd really like to hear the thoughts of others on the matter.

Especially: @ZOS_JessicaFolsom (if available) @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JasonLeavey or even, if possible, @ZOS_PaulSage just about any official reassurance would be greatly appreciated.

I want ESO to last for a damn long time.

Tell me it will.

I'm sure ZOS does too, and they are doing their best to ensure it does: peoples' jobs and careers are at stake. No one can see the future, but I assure you ZOS is doing all they can to ensure your wish comes true.

And so is the reputation of ESO and the entire franchise. They mustn't drop the ball with console release.

Beowulf_McCallum · April 2015

ZOS_UlyssesW wrote: »

Hello folks.
We have had to edit or remove several comments in this thread. We ask that everyone stay focused on the topic at hand and avoid derailing the conversation or dissuading other community members from sharing their feedback. Thank you for your understanding.

Curse you @ZOS_UlyssesW

I thought one of said named devs/reps posted in here
aww shucks....I can't stay mad at you, you scoundrel