Dark prospects of ESO ingame economy

deleted220614-000183

Recently some related topics were discussed.
I just want to be sure that my point of view is somewhere visible as many people don't understand the basics of the matter but talking a lot about that.
Disclaimer:
It is just my point of view and what I see as dark future may be for some other folks bright one.
I'm not dealing with crowns and crown economy as it is quite different beast and the mechanics is not the same as in economy based on golds.

What's the problem ?
The problem is inflation, which is especially painful on PC platform.

What is the consequence ?
Golds stored in bank are losing their purchase power.

What is the reason ?
More golds are added daily in the game then destroyed and these surplus golds wants to buy something, so the prices are increasing.

Why it is a PC platform problem ?
Inflation is a problem on all platforms but on PC it is especially visible as people are using trading addons, so the market shifts are quicker and easier visible.
The next contributing factor are bots, which are harvesting everything they can including low mobs and treasure chests, which are dropping golds in large amounts (as a byproduct)

What are the solutions ?
From global perspective the only solution is stop adding new golds on server and start to destroy existing golds.
From player perspective spent all golds on something, which is keeping value better then golds, for example mats, rare drops, collectible items and other attractive stuff that can be bought by golds (not many of them exist indeed as attractive items are mainly crownstore stuff)

How can be gold destroyed ?
Spending golds in guildstores or trading with other players doesn't help as they are only circulated.
To destroy golds they must be:
-spent on NPC vendor for items/upgrades/services
-spent on other ingame services like teleporting
-spent on taxes when selling in guildstore, it is roughly 3,5 percent as other half of the tax is an income of the guild owner
-spent on bidding on NPC guildtrader
-destroyed on bank account of inactive player

How the situation will develop ?
Inflation spiral means that untreated inflation worsens and accelerates. People are more and more aware of the problem and rush to spend golds and hoard materials.
So the material prices further increase which means the inflation worsens as more and more people would try to protect themselves. This phenomena is known as market bubble.

Who will benefit who will lose ?
Rich players who spent on good rare/collectible items will benefit the most. As these items tend to have pricetag of couple of millions golds poor players can't afford them.
Medium class players will suffer the most. Their savings will lose it's value ast the savings will not be enough to cover the day by day expences and escape to the investment haven by buying luxury items at the same time

Why medium players which are vast majority of players are not very important for the market prices ?
Market reflects demand and purchase power of few very rich, which are the only people dictating prices.
These very rich players are mainly clever enough to protect their property and they know how to invest it to become even more rich.
Some of them (on the dark side) are benefiting from shadow economy (botters, cheaters)
Somewhere in between are crownsellers. Selling crowns is not banned behavior but as the inflation worsens and gold/crown exchange goes up the roof, their purchase power in golds will significantly increase.

How will it end ?
Badly.
The vast majority of medium class players will lose all their savings or will spent most of the time in the game by trying to protect themselves against inflation instead of playing/farming new materials etc.
The few very rich will be even more rich so the prices of exclusive items will be unafordable for anyone except them.
The amount of rare items will decrease as they will be fast dissapearing from the market even if overpriced and on the other hand, players who could drop/craft new ones will not have enough time and resources to fill the gap as they will be combating inflation instead.
Most of guildstores will be owned by unexperienced crownsellers and will be empty. On the other hands, old and renowned guilds with player community knowing each other for years will end as they will not be able to compete on guildstore vendors NPC bidding market. In the end the game will become unattractive for the majority of the players so in the end it will become unattractive even for the rich ones.

So that's all of that in very short and simplified form.

P.S: many people still think that inflation is not a problem.

Lysette

Or you do it just like rich people do it in real life as well - hold your wealth in asset instead of coin - simple solution actually. In this case your wealth increases with the inflation and your buying power is not diminished. In the real world the other things used to counter inflation are shareholder value and real estate - but these are not valid for ESO.

Inflation is just a problem for those insisting to keep their wealth in money value - and that is often the majority, which go for "safe" investments in money value with fixed interest rates - that is not a "safe" method to do it, but the most damaging one for your wealth.

deleted220614-000183

Lysette wrote: »

Or you do it just like rich people do it in real life as well - hold your wealth in asset instead of coin - simple solution actually. In this case your wealth increases with the inflation and your buying power is not diminished. In the real world the other things used to counter inflation are shareholder value and real estate - but these are not valid for ESO.

From the perspectivre of the middle player - I'm very rich.
From the perspective of the rich player - I'm very poor.

But from the perspective of the both folks - I think I can see far more in the future then they can.

Lysette

When you investigate shareholder value for example - and take the last 170 years of stock exchange charts - as far as they are available, take random selection of stocks (a large enough amount from all areas of the world and in all branches of economy) and observe 15-years segments - there was NEVER a time, where you would have made loss, not even during the world economic crisis, mostly you even got an average of 9% p.a. effective - so this is actually a very safe way to keep your wealth - and crisis is often even where you can make the most with it - it is much safer than any of the "safe" methods.

Whereas those having had "safe" investments in money value had several times lost their investments in those 170 years - well, dependent on where they lived of course, but there were quite a few catastrophic events which just ate their wealth.

Then there is the tax aspect of it as well in the real world - shareholder value is nearly tax free, if you hold for long enough, whereas gain in money value is taxed quite heavily. If you can get 9% p.a. effective, that means your wealth is doubling about every 8 years in an inflation safe way - your buying power is actually doubling every 8 years like this.

so TL;DR is - inflation is bad for the masses, but it doesn't effect shareholders and people who hold their wealth in asset - they will still make proper inflation-safe profits.

Fabi95

trpajzla wrote: »

Most of guildstores will be owned by unexperienced crownsellers and will be empty. On the other hands, old and renowned guilds with player community knowing each other for years will end as they will not be able to compete on guildstore vendors NPC bidding market.

In my opinion and perception the opposite is the case. Existing guilds that are very invested - both in activity and player numbers - have the best chances to stay. Somebody with a lot of gold could still outbid a guild at a trader, but that would be only temporary, since that action on its own is not self-sustainable. So renowned guilds and all their sister guilds within the family will be fine, if they can keep up. If not, no, it's not the crown sellers who fill the spot. It would be just a different guild with more activity (e.g. more sister guilds) and support from their members (e.g. gold donations). Who would actually be put at a disadvantage? New guilds with people who start from scratch.

LatentBuzzard

There's always these long explanations about how to combat inflation and yet none of them ever seem to include one of the most obvious solutions which is to stop buying items at silly prices. We all like a shortcut but you can't be prepared to pay silly prices to take a shortcut and then complain that shortcuts cost silly prices.

If you think that the Crown exchange rates are too high then stop paying them. If you think gold material prices are too high then stop paying them. If you think <INSERT ITEM HERE> prices are too high then stop paying them.

I know there's going to be a lot of people that want to reply saying "but I want them, I just don't want to pay much for them" but unfortunately that's not how things work. You can get these items without paying silly prices for them but you have to use the alternative methods to get them like farming or even paying real money for Crowns. Yes it sucks, yes it requires more effort and yes it doesn't give instant gratification but if people keep paying silly prices then things will keep costing silly prices.

As much as we may all want them, players have no right to reasonably priced items in a player driven market. Other players will charge you as much as they think they can get away with and if you pay those prices then you're just furthering the problem. Stop paying the silly prices and get the items using the alternative methods. If you feel that the alternative methods are too onerous and you have to take the shortcut then stop complaining about inflation because by paying the silly prices you are furthering the problem.

npuk

trpajzla wrote: »

How can be gold destroyed ?
Spending golds in guildstores or trading with other players doesn't help as they are only circulated.
To destroy golds they must be:
-destroyed on bank account of inactive player

If a player is inactive how can the gold in their bank be being circulated? If your idea was a thing people that were planning on taking a break would pass their gold to friends/other players rather than just loosing it, so it would potentially increase the gold in active circulation.

Using guild stores does that a small percentage out of the pool due to listing fees/commission.

trpajzla wrote: »

What's the problem ?
The problem is inflation, which is especially painful on PC platform.

I think this is very much a PC problem, on Xbox-EU Prices are lower than ever, 5k temps (9-10k last year), A' Silk 9K a stack (16-18k last year)

I think you might find that a contributing factor to the inflation is the crown economy and the amount of bots.

ApoAlaia

I keep the vast majority of my 'wealth' in my craft bag.

I need to maintain some liquidity as one needs money to make money however I don't keep vast 'cash reserves'; as OP points out currency devalues at prodigious speed.

I have 'stocked up' some commodities too in the hope that they will retain or improve their value over time but this is a bit of a gamble and they do take inventory space.

The way I see it there are a few things that could curve the current devaluation rate of the currency however most of them would not be popular:

- Tax property and mounts. It would remove gold from the economy, and it would tax the wealthiest more however it would negatively affect crown sales so... I think the odds are not great.

- Remove crown gifting. It would remove a strong incentive to 'farm gold' and deprive people from access to zero (in game)-effort gold however again it would negatively impact crown sales and it would boost TOS-violating behaviours (players who wish to directly exchange their real world wealth for in-game wealth will always seek to do so and where there is a demand a supply industry will invariably arise).

- Add recurrent gold purchases that people would like to spend gold on; temporary cosmetic effects for player characters, housing, whathaveyou that require a recurrent gold contribution to keep active, however those can be monetised with crowns as well so... again, why make something available with gold when you can make € instead?

- Removing all the gold boosting CP nodes to reduce the rate at which gold is coming into the economy.

DinoZavr

The solution is to add gold sinks, and only Zenimax can do that

My take on the current circumstances is:

The first factor affecting supply and demand was Stickerbook. You don't need to farm/buy several Briarheart daggers, you get one from quest and re-construct as many as you need, so demand decreased with the same supply and the gear prices dropped.

The second factor is the curated drops. it is possible to get 15 Mother Sorrow inferno staves per hour (if you make a new account and intentionally avoid binding the mostly sought BoE items) farming Forgotten Crypts. Same applies to other BoE gear, as public dungeons bosses drops are curated. Supply increased, while demand had not changed since collection book.. So, the prices for tradeable gear dropped noticeably one more time, so did the sales tax (which removes gold from the game economy).

Both features are what most of players are happy about, as they reduce the grind,
on the other hand they reduce demand, increase supply, thus causing serious prices decrease, so one of the major gold sinks (3.5% sales tax from Guild Traders sales) now remove way way less money from the economy, while the major gold faucets (drops, rewards, etc) have not changes much.


i would be happy to see a TESO monthly economy digests (like EVE Online does that. in 2007 they even hired a real-world Economy professor to analyze the game economy (it is very complex, by the way, as everything except cosmetics is made by players)) with sinks, faucets, most traded commodities prices, inflation and such.

Fabi95

LatentBuzzard wrote: »

If you think that the Crown exchange rates are too high then stop paying them. If you think gold material prices are too high then stop paying them. If you think <INSERT ITEM HERE> prices are too high then stop paying them.

This appears to be very true from what I have seen. These events keep happening, hence why it all goes higher and higher. The willingness to spend gold is so high at times that it makes one think, it is way too easy to earn gold. Which pokes at the origin of why this is happening. People who put in much time and effort spend it much more wisely. People who can obtain gold way too easily will just throw around with it, no matter what side effects this causes (in this case it's the inflation).

At some point, the whole situation is bound to reach a moment though where ZOS should take a look at it. Because: Would it be still by design that somebody could sell a few Dreugh Wax, and it's enough to buy out all personal bank and inventory upgrades?

Lysette

DinoZavr wrote: »

i would be happy to see a TESO monthly economy digests (like EVE Online does that. in 2007 they even hired a real-world Economy professor to analyze the game economy (it is very complex, by the way, as everything except cosmetics is made by players)) with sinks, faucets, most traded commodities prices, inflation and such.

I don't see this happening in ESO - because it is mainly an adventuring game - EVE on the other side has mining and industry as a main factor and counter part to war and destruction - so it is vital to have a good tool to make economical decisions, if you play on the production and industry side of the game - in ESO this is not nearly as important as in EVE.

Brrrofski

npuk wrote: »

trpajzla wrote: »

How can be gold destroyed ?
Spending golds in guildstores or trading with other players doesn't help as they are only circulated.
To destroy golds they must be:
-destroyed on bank account of inactive player

If a player is inactive how can the gold in their bank be being circulated? If your idea was a thing people that were planning on taking a break would pass their gold to friends/other players rather than just loosing it, so it would potentially increase the gold in active circulation.

Using guild stores does that a small percentage out of the pool due to listing fees/commission.

trpajzla wrote: »

What's the problem ?
The problem is inflation, which is especially painful on PC platform.

I think this is very much a PC problem, on Xbox-EU Prices are lower than ever, 5k temps (9-10k last year), A' Silk 9K a stack (16-18k last year)

I think you might find that a contributing factor to the inflation is the crown economy and the amount of bots.

Yeh, I see this as a PC issue. Not sure why, maybe it's trading add-ons, or auto craft writ add-ons meaning more people smash out writs daily?

Like you said, for us on Xbox EU, prices of most things are an all time low.

People are selling tempering alloys at 3.5k sometimes.

The only thing which has increased slightly from what I see, is zircon plating. Even then, they've gone up like 5k in a year. Which is nothing, and probably due to some decent crafted sets being introduced or buffed in that time.

Lysette

I think the reason is crown sales - gold which was parked on wallets for an eternity is transferred to those who sell crowns because they need gold to be spend - and so gold which was passive on wallets gets activated and circulates in the economy now, and this is causing the inflation, because there is not more stuff than before, but a lot more gold in circulation, which is increasing prices - voila inflation.

Lysette

But we have the other side as well passive - that stuff in crafting bags, what never gets to market - if this would get on the market, prices would go down and we would have deflation instead of inflation, if the market would be oversaturated with stuff. But due to the trading system in place, this is not likely to happen.

Lysette

An the last factor which drives inflation is market manipulation, which is easy to do on PC, because there are the tools to figure out what is sold where - this is by far easier to do than on consoles. This thread can actually be a tool as well to manipulate the market, because it is raising a similar feel like it is in Australia with the housing market - "if I don't buy it now at any price, I might not be able to ever afford it again" - this drives the housing market in Australia - and a similar feel could as well be raised in ESO by threads like this one here.

LatentBuzzard

Lysette wrote: »

An the last factor which drives inflation is market manipulation, which is easy to do on PC, because there are the tools to figure out what is sold where - this is by far easier to do than on consoles.

That's called market transparency, not market manipulation. It's actually something to be sought after and not avoided.

Skinfaxe_DK

I see bots being mentioned here and in other similar threads as well. I personally have not seen any bots on PC EU - is this really an issue or am I missing something? Could someone please elaborate on the bot-problem on PC?

tonyblack

It’s too early to talk about inflation and most of your concerns will be dismissed as not valid.

It’s not a real world and most of negative consequences of inflation do not apply or they aren’t as harmful or might even be positive. For example, right now as a new player it’s quite simple to max inventory and bank space and buy meta gear.

If trading guilds would raise weekly requirements to 1-3 mil per week thus excluding casual traders from prime locations than you would see more support. But it doesn’t happen, still same 100-500k per week as in 2019 and I haven’t seen anything higher. In fact, as trading side activity for me hitting those requirements become easier and it isn’t something I view as negative.

Also, speaking of pc eu, I haven’t saw resource bots in years. It might have something to do with the fact how low value of gold to those who trade it for real currencies. So after years of bots devaluing materials they returning to more healthy price range, which is a good thing. Most bots reports you find are console related and their economy is in much worse state than pc.

Simple solution for rich: don’t hoard the gold, spend it on things you value or just invest.
Simple solution for mid tier players: farm what you need yourself.

RedTalon

I've been playing long enough and the increase in costs doesn't effect me, also have not noticed bots out harvesting or doing running sweeps in areas, but then again do my own harvesting in places like cold harbor, the rift and some other long forgotten areas unless I am looking for certain leads and so on, think some players and guilds have been around so long they just decided to jack up princes really boredom and what have yo.

When a game has been around so long it does sort of mean some players have everything they want, and jack up prices and costs on things they do need anymore, there is no real fix for such things other then zeroing everyone's resources back to day 1.

In the end apart from reset, the other viable option would be a proper tradidng house not controlled by one guild but dont think that would happen but good list of ideas and agree with some of them of-course.

The only bad idea on that list is the tax thing, would cause prices to soar more in the end,, has people make up the difference, even with it scaling.

Just my thoughts on the matter., sorry for errors and typos.

James-Wayne

Well the golden vendors come and go each week and they are primarily supposed to be a gold/AP sink but when the items are useless or out of date each and every week I just sit on my gold.

If we had more NPC vendors that are selling items, materials, sets, homes, furniture etc maybe I might spend it... give us a NPC that sells motifs but binds to your account, the drop rate on those are so small I just dont bother harvesting because I know its a waste of time.

The game needs to be more generous in selling different items for gold but I doubt this will change because its ALL about the crown store.

Narvuntien

Right now, I don't have a craft bag and want to trade my materials to get more bag space available but I have used up all my available slots selling gear and all the stuff from the events which means I can't sell my stuff.

Yeah probably an error on my part

but I hate being limited to 5 guilds when I want guilds for more things than just trading.

francesinhalover

Just add gold lootboxes with crappy rng

SerafinaWaterstar

This is a PC only issue.

As someone mentioned upthread, it is not the same for Xbox, nor is it for PS4/5.

‘If’ (and that’s a big if) this really needs ‘fixing’ then it has to be done without affecting the economies on consoles.

(Though I am curious as to why it is a pc-only issue…..)

Troodon80

This issue is that there isn't really anything to spend gold on to remove it (aka gold sink). One idea I thought of years ago was similar to the AP gear vendors in Cyrodiil, but for example one gear vendor in each overland area which sells that zone's gear in the form of a random-drop coffer (as in, one coffer for each set, but what you get out of it will be a random piece of that set), along with any dungeons in that area (which would also have a side affect of benefitting PvPers who don't want to do PvE).

Additionally, make more notable houses purchasable with gold, make it so you can spend a bit more and buy furnished via gold, and have a greater selection of furnishings and/or furnishing plans which can be bought for gold (in the same style of the writ vendor, perhaps). Maybe some single-use dyes like those in the crown store but available via gold.

The more things available for gold which players actually want to spend gold on, the less gold there will be in circulation.

However, I don't imagine much will be done. ZOS has said that it is a player driven economy. This is a player made problem. So we could also make the argument that ZOS shouldn't do anything and that it's up to us to fix what we made.

DinoZavr

Troodon80 wrote: »

However, I don't imagine much will be done. ZOS has said that it is a player driven economy. This is a player made problem. So we could also make the argument that ZOS shouldn't do anything and that it's up to us to fix what we made.

Player driven economy?
EVE Online is player-driven economy.
Or how do i produce this?

Parasaurolophus

There is another reason for inflation, which for some reason no one talks about:
Gold is just not needed.
What can you buy?
Any gear can be easily obtained today
Goldmats are generated by a lot of alts that do craft writs.
So it turns out that trading has stopped and gold has lost its value. The only important currency in the game today is crowns. It doesn't matter how many zeros there are in the price of a particular item. If you are an active participant in the trade, then you will always be afloat. The sharp inflation occurred because there was nothing to trade even between the players. This is the policy of this game, which is designed for maximum comfort for the casual player, who can easily get whatever he wants.

Blinx

please don't try and drag consoles into this, there is NO inflation on Xbox, prices have been pretty much stable over the past year and half I been playing, this is solely a PC centric problem

Waseem

This is player-induced kinda thing and zenimax has nothing to do about it ( maybe make it worst )
accept it and move on. or make protests near wayshrines - not that anyone would listen or care unless for memes-

perfiction

DinoZavr wrote: »

Or how do i produce this?

Simple, just put insanely overpriced item to guild store and reloadui to send it to TTC server, then waste your listing fee because nobody will buy this

Lysette

LatentBuzzard wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

An the last factor which drives inflation is market manipulation, which is easy to do on PC, because there are the tools to figure out what is sold where - this is by far easier to do than on consoles.

That's called market transparency, not market manipulation. It's actually something to be sought after and not avoided.

Tell me more, I do market manipulation in EVE for years - and my best tools are exactly those which show me the complete market to achieve that. So to me that is a market manipulation tool. In EVE it is more difficult of course, because there is logistics and other risks involved, whereas in ESO we have teleport and no transport risks at all.

TX12001rwb17_ESO

It is a PC "only" problem, the smart person would assume something on PC is causing it, something console players do not have, would it not be in the best interests to "remove" whatever is the cause?

- Tamriel Trade Centre
- Master Merchant

These 2 addons should be banned immediatly.