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Lady_Galadhiel

I once got an radiant apex mount out of 30 crates.
But yea,must say spacially rng in the older crown crates is horrible,happened to me with the psijic crates as well,did open like 45 or 60 did never get any apex.Had to unlock it with gems myself.

whitecrow

I've never gotten a radiant apex, but I have several regular apex, and one was from a single crate (a free one at that!)

Syrpynt

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

I was just about to quote that from the documentation right as you posted.

It's likely not public information but I have a feeling that it applies to Apex mounts to avoid the scenario where a very small percentage of players have bad luck and won't roll a win for potentially hundreds of crates.

I'd love to know for sure if anyone has this information to share.

Well, you see, they change your RNG based on your previous bans and the tastefullness of your posts in forums (; Say bad things, and RNGesus curses you to never get the things you want. Only praise the ZoSmachine!
/sarcasm

[snip]
[edited for discussing disciplinary actions]

Kiyakotari

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

The odds are here.

So 1 in 50 chance to get an Apex.

15 crate pack @ 5000 crowns = 333.33 crowns per crate
333.33 * 50 = 16667 crowns per Apex Mount

If you buy crowns on sale then you're getting an Apex mount for ~$72 USD before tax.

The lesson here is to 1) know your odds, and 2) buy crowns on sale.

The actual odds are here. The odds published by ZOS are not technically inaccurate but they are misleading. The odds sourced from the Crown Crates Tracker addon are user-sourced, more specific, and give more accurate information.

Olauron

Kiyakotari wrote: »

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

The odds are here.

So 1 in 50 chance to get an Apex.

15 crate pack @ 5000 crowns = 333.33 crowns per crate
333.33 * 50 = 16667 crowns per Apex Mount

If you buy crowns on sale then you're getting an Apex mount for ~$72 USD before tax.

The lesson here is to 1) know your odds, and 2) buy crowns on sale.

The actual odds are here. The odds published by ZOS are not technically inaccurate but they are misleading. The odds sourced from the Crown Crates Tracker addon are user-sourced, more specific, and give more accurate information.

Well, that's the same approximately 2% chance to get Apex.

Elsonso

.

Olauron wrote: »

Kiyakotari wrote: »

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

The odds are here.

So 1 in 50 chance to get an Apex.

15 crate pack @ 5000 crowns = 333.33 crowns per crate
333.33 * 50 = 16667 crowns per Apex Mount

If you buy crowns on sale then you're getting an Apex mount for ~$72 USD before tax.

The lesson here is to 1) know your odds, and 2) buy crowns on sale.

The actual odds are here. The odds published by ZOS are not technically inaccurate but they are misleading. The odds sourced from the Crown Crates Tracker addon are user-sourced, more specific, and give more accurate information.

Well, that's the same approximately 2% chance to get Apex.

The point is that if you want the half dozen official numbers, you go to their page. If you want unofficial details about all of the drops, including Radiant Apex, you go to the user web page.

Olauron

Elsonso wrote: »

.

Olauron wrote: »

Kiyakotari wrote: »

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

The odds are here.

So 1 in 50 chance to get an Apex.

15 crate pack @ 5000 crowns = 333.33 crowns per crate
333.33 * 50 = 16667 crowns per Apex Mount

If you buy crowns on sale then you're getting an Apex mount for ~$72 USD before tax.

The lesson here is to 1) know your odds, and 2) buy crowns on sale.

The actual odds are here. The odds published by ZOS are not technically inaccurate but they are misleading. The odds sourced from the Crown Crates Tracker addon are user-sourced, more specific, and give more accurate information.

Well, that's the same approximately 2% chance to get Apex.

The point is that if you want the half dozen official numbers, you go to their page. If you want unofficial details about all of the drops, including Radiant Apex, you go to the user web page.

You will see some data on the unofficial page. The data that is incomplete both because it is not from all users and because it is not for an infinite set. The given 2% chance is more correct and as such is more useful than 2.04%, 2.03%, 1.90% (etc.), because this 2% is what you may call a trending chance. Even more, if you know that current chance is 2.04% and estimated chance is 2%, then your chances are less than 2% (because the past set is over the chance), and if you know that current chance is 1.90% and estimated chance is 2%, then your chances are more than 2%. If you don't know past results, your chances are 2%.

Individual item chances may be interesting, but they are so small (0.69%, 0.78% for legendary items) that you may as well assume their equality (for non-scrolls items).

Radiant apex chances are so small that expecting to get it is counterproductive. They are so small that you may as well rename them to the "dinosaur in London chances, 50-50, either will see or not".

Elsonso

Olauron wrote: »

Radiant apex chances are so small that expecting to get it is counterproductive. They are so small that you may as well rename them to the "dinosaur in London chances, 50-50, either will see or not".

Still, I do find it somewhat interesting that ZOS does not publish the odds of the Radiant Apex rewards...

Olauron

Elsonso wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

Radiant apex chances are so small that expecting to get it is counterproductive. They are so small that you may as well rename them to the "dinosaur in London chances, 50-50, either will see or not".

Still, I do find it somewhat interesting that ZOS does not publish the odds of the Radiant Apex rewards...

Yes, I agree, especially as radiant mount is usually on the banner for the crown crate article on the site.

MornaBaine

The gamble boxes are disgusting. I sometimes buy them for the SMALL ("cheap") things as I can typically get them. I'm deeply glad I don't give a single *insert sure to be censored word here* about the big ticket items. But I absolutely understand the righteous fury of those who do. This "system" is despicable.

MrGhosty

I had an epiphany awhile back that I can only equip one mount at a time, one pet at a time, one outfit at a time per character so much so that all the tat I have accumulated rarely, if ever, gets used. This realization helped me take the final step to never buy crown crates. I am diligent about getting the free drops crates from twitch streams to save up the meager amount they give and use that for the few things I still very badly want. I don't miss the spending out each month for the minimum 15 crates to only get nothing I wanted and no option to break down collection items into gems and having that empty pit in my stomach. I applaud ZOS for a lot of things they've changed about this game since launch but I find the crown crates to be deeply upsetting.

I would have no issue with them if everything in the crates could be purchased for crowns giving players two routes to the items. One path lets you gamble "less" money for a chance at the thing you want and the other gives you a guaranteed path but you will likely pay a premium. In a perfect world these things would just be in the game but I'm afraid that ship has long since sailed and been sunk.

daim

MrGhosty wrote: »

I would have no issue with them if everything in the crates could be purchased for crowns giving players two routes to the items. One path lets you gamble "less" money for a chance at the thing you want and the other gives you a guaranteed path but you will likely pay a premium. In a perfect world these things would just be in the game but I'm afraid that ship has long since sailed and been sunk.

I would still have an issue about it.

It might be even worse if you had a in-game pony that costs say 10000 crowns (so approx 70 USD? **) versus you have an option to buy loot boxes for half the price - so you decide to save and end up buying 15 boxes for 5000 crowns and as you probably don't get it so you buy some more boxes and even more boxes ending up paying XXX amount of crowns. And then you're hit with your credit card bill and realize: gosh I just spend 300$ on my digital pony.

And just to clarify I dont luckily have that problem but I'm sure there's a lot of people whom don't necessarily realize they're being .. taken advantage of.


** dunno about the exact value as official page doesnt show the prices without logging in apparently https://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/crowns so i just googled

RicAlmighty

The only way to force change is to stop buying loot boxes. Period. If people keep buying them, there is no incentive to change a thing.

I have never purchased a single loot box in over 30 years of gaming and I never will. I pay for games and I pay for extra playable content. Maybe, once in a blue moon I will buy a specific cosmetic that I really like. Loot boxes are sanctioned gambling and the house always wins.

Amottica

quantumartist wrote: »

After all this, sounds like a legit grievance to me. Getting pretty good at drafting up legal complaints. Since loot crates are becoming an issue in other countries, might just give it a go.

Good luck. However, they are in compliance with regulations by posting the odds. Some people live in areas these crates are not permitted but crates are not sold in those areas unless someone is spoofing their location and that is really on them.

Vonkarolinas

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

Here's what 100k crowns (300 crates) gave me a few months ago.

Rewards

• 1x Radiant Apex mount (the 1600 crown gem mount)
• 3x Apex mount
• ~50% of all Legendary rewards
• ~80% of all Epic rewards
• 100% Superior rewards
• 14x Grand Gold Coast experience scroll
• 2x Instant All Research
• 3623 crown gems
  • 2270 crown gems from duplicate rewards
  • 1353 crown gems from extracting unwanted rewards

It's ~100 crates per Apex mount. I can confirm this is still the drop rate with the current Reaper's Harvest crates.

I bought 6x 15 crates (90 total) and received the Skeletal Wolf.

Sorry you didn't get anything but 20 crates is not nearly enough for an Apex mount.

The flip side of this is I bout 15 crates. The first one I opened I got one of the skeletal mounts. Ugly things, not sure why people want the so bad. Is it the because they are rare or do they actually like the look?

Anyway, that is the nature of random. Sometimes it takes 90 crates, sometimes 900, sometimes 1.

LadyDestiny

quantumartist wrote: »

Bought 20 crates yesterday hoping to get 1... just 1... skeletal mount. These mounts are not available any other way and at any other time of the year. Not only did I not get the desired item, but the other items I got were so bad that I only got a collective of about 60 crown gems from 20 crates!

OMG what a rip off!!! I could have purchased Far Cry 6 for this money. You need to fix this.

Yep. I never buy these anymore. I got lucky and landed psijic sench on my first bundle a long time ago. Now I just use that or my dro m'athra that I outright purchased.

There is no way I am forking out that kind of money for a bunch of food, potions and worthless stuff in those gambling crates.

Milchbart

I can imagine the ZOS guys managing the crown store and the especially the loot boxes sitting together and having a laugh whenever those threads pop up.

I welcome players buying those boxes; they provide income for ZOS employees and keep the game going.

Luckily I have no desire to buy those boxes.

Gerebos

I rarely buy any lootboxes because of rng and I never had any luck with it. When I opened lots of chests I barely got a thing while my friends from few boxes got what I wanted to get and in many games so I refused to play gambling ever. I prefer to pay and see what I get than have to base on luck.

Jaimeh

Elsonso wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

Radiant apex chances are so small that expecting to get it is counterproductive. They are so small that you may as well rename them to the "dinosaur in London chances, 50-50, either will see or not".

Still, I do find it somewhat interesting that ZOS does not publish the odds of the Radiant Apex rewards...

Yes, that's why all the data we have are community-gathered, from crowncrates.com. If you check there, for example from 18k Dwarven crown crates opened, the chance of getting a given radiant was 0.09%, and they have data for all crate seasons. It's true that not all players log their crate openings, but some seasons, they have a big sample, like the Psijic, with almost 29k crates opened and rates for the 3 radiants were 0.03%--0.09%.

Ravensilver

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

Here's what 100k crowns (300 crates) gave me a few months ago.

[snip]
Sorry you didn't get anything but 20 crates is not nearly enough for an Apex mount.

It used to be. I have quite a few of the older Apex mounts, from a time when even buying 15 crates would give you a nice droprate of pretty stuff.

Now? It's near to zero.

No more crates for me.

xclassgaming

Loot crates.

Just don't buy them.

guarstompemoji

Danikat wrote: »

I'm sorry that happened, but this is exactly the intended outcome. Crown crates are loot boxes, meaning what you get from them is random and there's no guarantee you'll get any specific item in a given number of crates. The nearest you can get is eventually getting enough gems that you can buy the item you want but of course that's expensive. The whole idea is that players buy them hoping they'll be lucky and get one of the rare drops but in reality most will spend more trying for an item than they'd be willing to pay to purchase it directly, so it makes the company more profit.

There is now an alternative but it takes a lot of time: there's a new category of activities called Endeavours in the group tab. There's both daily and weekly endeavours which award a currency called Seals of Endeavour which can be used to buy crown crate items without having to buy crates.

The downside is the items are expensive (an apex mount costs 8,000 seals) and seals are slow to acquire, weekly endeavours typically give 200-250 seals and daily ones give 10-20 each for a maximum of 30-60 per day, so it will take a few months to earn enough to buy an apex mount.

But that's the only options available unfortunately: buy crates and hope you get lucky, buy enough crates that you're guaranteed enough gems to buy the item you want (I believe there's calculators online which can estimate how many that will be) or do endeavours, save up the seals and wait for the items you want to be available.

They are slow...and getting slower. We've enough data now to confirm that the 'drop rate' for endeavors has been steadily decreasing, similarly to the value of daily logins: https://www.reddit.com/r/elderscrollsonline/comments/rb4k4a/are_we_really_getting_fewer_seals_per_day_yep/

Raw data provided in the thread.

Bradyfjord

Because of how randomness works, it is probably wise not to expect any particular result from a loot box. That said, there is nothing wrong with buying them if you like being surprised by the result.

winterscrolls229prerb18_ESO

Whoa, to the hard gamblers out there, for your own sake, I think it’s best to assume that the more you gamble the worse your odds become, and the less you gamble, random jackpot luck can and does happen.

You can’t win. Even if you have more money than you know what to do with, getting suckered into high real world value gambling is an absolute lesser way to do it. Surely there’s something you still don’t have, or need another of, for your thousands of dollars.

Yamenstein

It's gambling. I would say avoid the crown store like the plague. Or at least try to avoid spending more than you really need to, use any crowns that you accumulate from your monthly sub for example.

Spending money on these kind of things just show that the team behind the store, any store similar to this as well (it's not just ESO), that they can just push out reskinned items, most of the time nothing unique so they can overcharge for items with very minimal effort.

Loot boxes (which contain all the unique items - though with low probability of actually winning) just aren't worth it. It's just a gambling problem waiting to happen.

Worst thing to ever be introduced into video games. Businesses see the money potential, devs are forced to create, and player suffer mental problems. Slap on policies saying we offer x y and z alternatives, which are the most insufficient way of earning anything, but that ticks the box "we offer ways for people to earn these items in game and therefore it's a choice that customers spend hundreds or thousands of dollars".

ive_wonder

People should stop buying stop buying crown crates so they could transition to direct purchases sooner

KhajiitLivesMatter

ive_wonder wrote: »

People should stop buying stop buying crown crates so they could transition to direct purchases sooner

wont happen few people go crazy with crates ( i know someone who got EVERY radiant apex mount for the crates which where avialable at the time)
and me and a few others will still buy a few of them cause its not rly safe they will change the system ever and if they will i still wanna have the things now and not in 2 years....

Fhritz

Simple math if you want to actually know your odds of getting an apex mounts with a fixed amound of crate

Assuming that odd stay the same even with consecutive "fail", based on the official odds... We can use the Binomial distribution like this :
P(x=>1) = 1-((100|0)*0.02^0*0.98^x) = 1-(1*1*0.98^x) = 1 - 0.98^x (where x is equal to the number of crown crate used.(

Here's what it look like on a graph...

...and some value :
4 crates = ~7% chances
10 crate = ~18% chance
20 crates = ~33% chance
100 crates = ~87% chances

It's gambling, you'll never have 100% chance of getting what you want, no matter how much crate you take. Keep that in mind while buying crates.

Elsonso

Fhritz wrote: »

Simple math if you want to actually know your odds of getting an apex mounts with a fixed amound of crate

Assuming that odd stay the same even with consecutive "fail", based on the official odds... We can use the Binomial distribution like this :
P(x=>1) = 1-((100|0)*0.02^0*0.98^x) = 1-(1*1*0.98^x) = 1 - 0.98^x (where x is equal to the number of crown crate used.(

Here's what it look like on a graph...

...and some value :
4 crates = ~7% chances
10 crate = ~18% chance
20 crates = ~33% chance
100 crates = ~87% chances

It's gambling, you'll never have 100% chance of getting what you want, no matter how much crate you take. Keep that in mind while buying crates.

Oddly enough, they do not list the odds for the radiant apex mounts. Community sourcing suggests that it is 0.26% drop for any radiant apex reward. 267 crates at 50% chance. Should only cost around $640 in Crowns, list price, at 50% chance.

None of this, of course, takes Gems into account. This is variable, and the more you play, the more chance you have of getting a good Gem-worthy item.