I think I know what lead drop luck is based on!

Olauron

Firstmep wrote: »

There isnt. There is a droprate for the leads, thats it.

There is no such a thing as just droprate. Droprate is a function of distribution law and initialization (seed).

bearbelly

ImmortalCX wrote: »

bearbelly wrote: »

I got a gold lead from a thieves trove on a brand new 5-minute old (skipped the tutorial) level 3 character.
It's RNG.

OTH, one of the conditions may be that when you have had no leads, there is a much higher chance of feeding them to you.

When patch first dropped, I was given leads by just breathing on things. I've gone back to farm multiple copies and subsequent tries took much more time.

I dont think it is pure RNG. There are rules and conditions governing drop rates.

I had no prior leads on that particular character, but leads are credited to the account, and I already had a handful of leads on my account, comprised of multiple tiers (green, blue, purple).
I still think it's RNG-dependent. Whether or not it is weighted in some fashion is something we can only speculate on.

ImmortalCX

CleymenZero wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Like everyone else, some leads came easy, and some not so much...

One dungeon, Direfrost Keep took 25+ runs to get. However, the fishing leads were all relatively painless.

And more recently, I got the lead from Crypt of Hearts... on my first run!

Yes, this could be explained by pure RNG, but the interesting thing is that I almost never ran Direfrost prior to hunting the lead. Maybe why it took over 25 runs.

And as far as fishing goes? I have done alot of it.

And finally, Crypt of Hearts? I have run that many times, having farmed a full Leviathan set, and also a rare motif that dropped during one of the events a couple years ago.

My hypothesis, is that the content you have run more often, is the content that the leads drop most easily. That said, old long term players should have an easier time getting the drops.

Nope. I suspect there is something at play but it's not that.

I play with a friend who hasn't played much. I basically leveled him to cp 250 in skyreach a LONG time ago. He's a beta player that has been playing on and off but mostly for Light overland questing and his drops were random.

For the wolf mount for example: Volenfell took him about 30 times. He had run it once or twice if not more before but a lead in a Craglorn group delve took him 2 tries but he's never been to Craglorn.

I have been in Craglorn, have done a lot of stuff before including that delve and it took me about 16 tries.

Overland boss took me 20 times, imperial city ones took me 1 try each when I killed the right boss (a guide said the sewer one for the chest piece dropped from a specific boss but 8 tries on the boss and nothing then 1 try on one of the blue banner bosses and dropped right away).

I've done the Vanilla dungeons so many times each. Crypt of Hearts lead dropped on the 1st try but Elden Hollow required 15+ tries.

I don't know if it's completely random but your theory is wrong.

And to be able to determine anything, you'd need SOOOO many more samples and controlled conditions. One person's experience is an anecdote, not tangible data.

This is why I said it was a hypothesis. You identify what may be a trend and then try to prove it.

I was hoping that other people could corroborate my experience.

Bogdano

Random Number generation of some sort is at play. I think it matters when you are in a group if you are the first person to click on the defeated beastie that drops the lead or the last to click.
I have seen this with the beasties that pop up on the shoreline of Summerset, When the last monstrous beast is destroyed, a chest pops up on the border of the tidal pool. Everyone hurries to it and everyone gets something, but the rare items go to the first click.
So when I run Crypt of Hearts for the lead for the Thirsting Girdle that Ilambris Arthro drops at the end, I need to be quicker about clicking on his dead body, that will give me a better chance of getting the dropped lead.

Blacknight841

Pretty sure there is direct correlation between crowns spent and increased drop rates.

Saucy_Jack

SNUGGLORR THE MAGNIFICENT DEMANDS TRIBUTE, PUNY MORTALS!

Gorreck

Tyralbin wrote: »

Whilst I agree it is RNG I do think the OP has a point in a different respect.

This opinion is based on over 25 years working in the gaming industry.

My first job after school was working for Games Workshop where I play tested many games. Some of them RPGs, others boardgames. Warhammer RPG, Talisman and Bloodbowl to name a few.

Then I did over 25 years in the gambling industry.

With the Games Workshop stuff earning skills in either types of games can give you bonuses to dice rolls (RNG).

In the casinos I did 2 years as a Slots Manager. A slot machine can have its percentage payout set at different levels (RNG); they also change there RNG depending on percentage of income compaired to payout.

How do these work in relation to ESO?

Having an achievement could make your chances of a drop better. Master Angler for example could make your chance of getting fishing leads slightly better.

I also think that if it has been a while since an item has been scored it is more than likely to drop. Basically ESO acting like a fruit machine. Best example of this is crown crates (yes they are gambling).

Could be, but I honestly doubt it, because there isn't much in it for ZOS in doing it, over just having a genuine unweighted RNG (even though I believe they can do it - some drops are supposedly higher once you finish quest lines etc.).

And a genuine RNG and purest evil are basically indistiguisable from the players perspective as anyone that's ever camped a drop will know.

Take the animal trophy hunter drop, I've had multiple of most base animals on my main character, but bears....... nope, killed 1000's and still not one drop of it (I must have had wolves and skellys a 100 times each now).



I do remember the days of early MMORPG RNGs though, when they seeded from player position (as in EQ1 in its early days) you could basically 100% get a crafting success or skill-up just by picking the right positioning coordinates!

kargen27

People in general like predictability and certainty. To that end we try to find patterns and often find patterns where none exist. Our brain is really good at filtering stuff out that we deem not important on a subconscious level. Long ago when we were living in caves surviving often counted on the brain filtering out stuff before we really perceived it consciously. We like patterns so we create patterns and we are good at filtering out or forgetting when something happens that doesn't fit the perceived pattern.
We also tend to more quickly believe something that fits other things we believe. Some people take this so far they will ignore absolute proof that what they want to believe is wrong. I'm not suggesting that is happening here but it is a common occurrence out in the real world.

Jeremy

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Like everyone else, some leads came easy, and some not so much...

One dungeon, Direfrost Keep took 25+ runs to get. However, the fishing leads were all relatively painless.

And more recently, I got the lead from Crypt of Hearts... on my first run!

Yes, this could be explained by pure RNG, but the interesting thing is that I almost never ran Direfrost prior to hunting the lead. Maybe why it took over 25 runs.

And as far as fishing goes? I have done alot of it.

And finally, Crypt of Hearts? I have run that many times, having farmed a full Leviathan set, and also a rare motif that dropped during one of the events a couple years ago.

My hypothesis, is that the content you have run more often, is the content that the leads drop most easily. That said, old long term players should have an easier time getting the drops.

It's an interesting hypothesis. But I can confirm for you that it is not the case.

I had done Direfrost probably a 100 times or more previously before I attempted to get that stupid snow fur strip (or what ever it was called) and it still took me many days of straight farming that dungeon before I got that annoying lead to drop.

I've also jumped on a completely new character before who has done almost nothing and got leads instantly that took my main character days or even weeks to get.

So I think it's just pure RNG.

finehair

I am almost sure it is based on whether you have the chapter or not.
If you have the greymoor chapter, you need to grind it like there is no tomorrow. %0.1 chance to get gold leads.
However, if your account doesn't have the chapter you will get constant stream of leads. I am talking about golden leads dropping from critters that you accidently kill. %70 chance to get gold lead.

I don't have it, and 3/4 times of my blackhearth haven runs i get gold lead. I haven't killed any bosses in imperial city since the MYM 2 years ago, today I did few resto light attacks and threw in some skills. Malacath ring lead, I assume since it was something like "malacath core" or similar.

Blacknight841

If I were developer and I know that a veteran player has logged 1000 hours in a game, they will continue to play, especially for the rarer items. A new player that has logged a few hours will not be willing to grind 1000 hours to get better rng. So give better rng to the new player to encourage them to play more, give diminished returns to the vet player knowing they are going to keep playing and see the other players getting the loot, encouraging more play time. This is the investment/reward model that I think this game follows.

Hapexamendios

My experience:

Ran Volenfell many times before: took 35+ tries to get lead.

Ran Darkshade 1 many times: got lead second try

Have hardly run Darkshade 2: Got lead 1st try.

Fishing:

My character is a master angler

Arteum - less than 10 min

Stros M'kai - 6 hours

Clockwork- 1 hour

I could list more, bit this is enough. I'd say it's only RNG.

rpa

If enough people pray the RNGod there will be some apparently lucky and unlucky ones. If the random numbers are good and used in a way which do not induce biases.

wolfie1.0.

As a person that has more than one account I am convinced that the drop rate of all leads favors those who do NOT own the greymoor chapter.....