I think I know what lead drop luck is based on!

ImmortalCX

Like everyone else, some leads came easy, and some not so much...

One dungeon, Direfrost Keep took 25+ runs to get. However, the fishing leads were all relatively painless.

And more recently, I got the lead from Crypt of Hearts... on my first run!

Yes, this could be explained by pure RNG, but the interesting thing is that I almost never ran Direfrost prior to hunting the lead. Maybe why it took over 25 runs.

And as far as fishing goes? I have done alot of it.

And finally, Crypt of Hearts? I have run that many times, having farmed a full Leviathan set, and also a rare motif that dropped during one of the events a couple years ago.

My hypothesis, is that the content you have run more often, is the content that the leads drop most easily. That said, old long term players should have an easier time getting the drops.

Edaphon

ImmortalCX wrote: »

That said, old long term players should have an easier time getting the drops.

But they haven't.

Because it's random.

navystylz_ESO

It's just garbage af random. Course I get hit with the non stop IC bosses bullsht.

Tyralbin

Whilst I agree it is RNG I do think the OP has a point in a different respect.

This opinion is based on over 25 years working in the gaming industry.

My first job after school was working for Games Workshop where I play tested many games. Some of them RPGs, others boardgames. Warhammer RPG, Talisman and Bloodbowl to name a few.

Then I did over 25 years in the gambling industry.

With the Games Workshop stuff earning skills in either types of games can give you bonuses to dice rolls (RNG).

In the casinos I did 2 years as a Slots Manager. A slot machine can have its percentage payout set at different levels (RNG); they also change there RNG depending on percentage of income compaired to payout.

How do these work in relation to ESO?

Having an achievement could make your chances of a drop better. Master Angler for example could make your chance of getting fishing leads slightly better.

I also think that if it has been a while since an item has been scored it is more than likely to drop. Basically ESO acting like a fruit machine. Best example of this is crown crates (yes they are gambling).

ImmortalCX

Tyralbin wrote: »

Whilst I agree it is RNG I do think the OP has a point in a different respect.

This opinion is based on over 25 years working in the gaming industry.

My first job after school was working for Games Workshop where I play tested many games. Some of them RPGs, others boardgames. Warhammer RPG, Talisman and Bloodbowl to name a few.

Then I did over 25 years in the gambling industry.

With the Games Workshop stuff earning skills in either types of games can give you bonuses to dice rolls (RNG).

In the casinos I did 2 years as a Slots Manager. A slot machine can have its percentage payout set at different levels (RNG); they also change there RNG depending on percentage of income compaired to payout.

How do these work in relation to ESO?

Having an achievement could make your chances of a drop better. Master Angler for example could make your chance of getting fishing leads slightly better.

I also think that if it has been a while since an item has been scored it is more than likely to drop. Basically ESO acting like a fruit machine. Best example of this is crown crates (yes they are gambling).

I spent a couple years playing a mobile game called dungeons hunter.

It has loot chests like eso which you needed to be powerful.

There were certain events that appeared to be random, but that I figured out were based on a system.

One thing they did, was increase drop luck during certain time slots. So if you grind an event for several hours, you would see that between (say) :30 and :35 every hour, the drip rate was 5x normal.

Also there was a gear exchange system where you randomly received powerups from discarded gear. The thing was, it wasn't random. When you exchanged certain color combinations, the chance of getting a powerup was x5.

It's not always rng. It's easy to say that's all it is if you can't see patterns.

Tyralbin

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Tyralbin wrote: »

Whilst I agree it is RNG I do think the OP has a point in a different respect.

This opinion is based on over 25 years working in the gaming industry.

My first job after school was working for Games Workshop where I play tested many games. Some of them RPGs, others boardgames. Warhammer RPG, Talisman and Bloodbowl to name a few.

Then I did over 25 years in the gambling industry.

With the Games Workshop stuff earning skills in either types of games can give you bonuses to dice rolls (RNG).

In the casinos I did 2 years as a Slots Manager. A slot machine can have its percentage payout set at different levels (RNG); they also change there RNG depending on percentage of income compaired to payout.

How do these work in relation to ESO?

Having an achievement could make your chances of a drop better. Master Angler for example could make your chance of getting fishing leads slightly better.

I also think that if it has been a while since an item has been scored it is more than likely to drop. Basically ESO acting like a fruit machine. Best example of this is crown crates (yes they are gambling).

I spent a couple years playing a mobile game called dungeons hunter.

It has loot chests like eso which you needed to be powerful.

There were certain events that appeared to be random, but that I figured out were based on a system.

One thing they did, was increase drop luck during certain time slots. So if you grind an event for several hours, you would see that between (say) :30 and :35 every hour, the drip rate was 5x normal.

Also there was a gear exchange system where you randomly received powerups from discarded gear. The thing was, it wasn't random. When you exchanged certain color combinations, the chance of getting a powerup was x5.

It's not always rng. It's easy to say that's all it is if you can't see patterns.

I agreed with most of your original post and mine was to back you up to a certain point in no way did I mean to offend in any way.

Increasing drop luck in that other game strenghtens my point that RNG can be adjusted. What I call weighted RNG but it is still RNG.

Also, when you did the gear exchange it gave you an increased chance. A chance therefore still random (unless you worded this wrong).

But the line that made me reply the most was your last statement.

I used to hear the patterns argument all the time by avid fruit machine addicts. That way can lead to ruin even in an MMO.

I already know of people playing a lot more than usual because they can see the patterns. This can be detrimental to ones health.

I hope this isn't the case with yourself.

We should all have an healthy time online is what I am trying to say.

Hippie4927

I say it is pure RNG......nothing more. The character I ran Direfrost on had never done it before and she got the lead on the first run.

Taleof2Cities

Edaphon wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

That said, old long term players should have an easier time getting the drops.

But they haven't.

Because it's random.

^This.^

Some players think they have an explanation of some sort of malfeasance or skullduggery ... when in the end it's just RNG.

Eifleber

RNG can just bring incredible frustrating bad luck. The system doesn' t remember you next time so chances are still slim.
Compare with roulette: the chance on the number 18 is 1:37. But the chance it doesn' t drop in 100 rolls is still very substantial.
In statistics there's always one outcome where 18 never drops in 2000 rolls; that may be you if you really have bad luck.

That's why i am more in favour of tickets or vouchers or sigils that you can collect and hand in for whatever you want.
Iirc that's what they did in GW2 dungeons: every dungeon had its specific tickets. Tthe end boss drops 5 and mini-bosses 3 and occasionally 1 extra random from trash (just making this up). And for instance for 50 you could pick one piece of gear and 1h weapons cost 60 and 2h 100.
*

Septimus_Magna

When I was collecting leads for the Dwarven Ebon Mount I did Volenfell, Darkshade I and II like 10 times each.
After a while I waited for the final boss to stop moving before looting, I got all 3 leads right after each other.
Its probably coincidence but Ive ran all three dungeons more than 25 times before I started looking for leads.

After that I got the lead from Blackheart Haven on my first try, the final boss was tricky to solo tho.

Nemesis7884

the only thing i could see from my own experience is that the more leads you have gotten on a day, the lower your chance gets that you cant hardcore farm it and need to do it over days, weeks etc....but thats also just my gut feeling

Anotherone773

Tyralbin wrote: »

Whilst I agree it is RNG I do think the OP has a point in a different respect.

This opinion is based on over 25 years working in the gaming industry.

My first job after school was working for Games Workshop where I play tested many games. Some of them RPGs, others boardgames. Warhammer RPG, Talisman and Bloodbowl to name a few.

Then I did over 25 years in the gambling industry.

With the Games Workshop stuff earning skills in either types of games can give you bonuses to dice rolls (RNG).

In the casinos I did 2 years as a Slots Manager. A slot machine can have its percentage payout set at different levels (RNG); they also change there RNG depending on percentage of income compaired to payout.

How do these work in relation to ESO?

Having an achievement could make your chances of a drop better. Master Angler for example could make your chance of getting fishing leads slightly better.

I also think that if it has been a while since an item has been scored it is more than likely to drop. Basically ESO acting like a fruit machine. Best example of this is crown crates (yes they are gambling).

I think you give ZOS to much credit. Look how sloppy the game was they pushed out. It would effectively force people to grind content they apparently dont enjoy for the leads. The forum complaining would be astronomical as players were forced to spend hours and hours fishing, or grinding out a dungeon or world boss. Or hunting for chests. etc.

Ackwalan

The RNG program that ZOS uses is flawed. You can test it on the PvP kill player quest board. On that quest board you can get a quest and the drop it to get a different kill quest, you can only finish one class type per day. Every so often when trying to get the kill any quest, it will get stuck on one class and no matter how many times you drop it, the same quest will continue to show.

People like to talk about sample size and randomness, but after 5 years, it's safe to say. The RNG program that ZOS uses is flawed.

Hexquisite

After striking out yesterday on the Elden Hollow lead, I did 20 runs today, and didn't get it either. that makes 33 runs all together. I am on an old alt, that has done the quest plenty. And I also didn't grind for any other leads today.

I am all for having to work for something, but I think that maybe at 25 or 30 runs, we should just get it, or a token to turn into a vendor.

Nemesis7884

lol im glad i have all mythic items by now and the stranglers i got last because it seemed grindy but got everything really fast... the longest was malacaths cause i had to kill 500 wolves lol

NupidStoob

I farm for leads on a char with more than 200 days of playtime that has most achievements in the game. It still took me a lot of time for some leads and others dropped directly. For my first thrassian stranglers I fished for 3 hours in stros m'kai. For my second I got it with the second fish I caught. I've also found quite many leads on my alts that hardly have achievements without actively looking for them.

Like others pointed out it is pure RNG.

Olauron

Some of you guys sound like RNG means uniform distribution. RNG doesn't mean such a thing. RNG may be done by uniform distribution, RNG may be done by normal distribution, RNG any be done by any other distribution with any possible additional conditions.

Even if RNG is done as uniform distribution, you can use it any way you want. For example, take d20. This is RNG, this is uniform distribution. Now you can code that if number is bigger than 10 and you have some achievement, then you 'win' (get a lead), at the same time with the same RNG you can code that if number is bigger than 15 and you don't have an achivement, then you 'win' (get a lead). This is the same RNG, but with different conditions and different results.

Then we have seed. What do you know about seed in ESO? Nothing. But seed may be account-based, may be character-based, may be zone-based, may be player session-based, may be server session-based (reset at maintenance), may be simply time-based (current time is used as seed for each RNG usage).

In essence, we have no idea about distribution, we have no idea about conditions, we have no idea about seed (also everything mentioned can be different for different activities, for example leads, motif pages and critical damage may be based on 3 different distributions, conditions and seeds).

And there is no such thing as 'pure RNG', because any RNG you can name 'pure' and will be right.

NupidStoob

Olauron wrote: »

And there is no such thing as 'pure RNG', because any RNG you can name 'pure' and will be right.

So any RNG can be pure therefore pure RNG exists. Your statement makes no sense.

When I (and many others) say pure RNG they simply mean that we can't predict or influence the outcome therefore it's meaningless to discuss.

FrancisCrawford

There are three common scenarios in gaming:

• The RNG tries to be random in the way that players expect, and basically succeeds.
• The RNG tries to be random in the way that players expect, but is basically buggy and fails.
• The RNG is deceptively tampered with in the hopes of boosting player engagement.

The OP's scenario directly contradicts the first of those possibilities, and doesn't seem like a good fit to the other two either.

ImmortalCX

Tyralbin wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Tyralbin wrote: »

Whilst I agree it is RNG I do think the OP has a point in a different respect.

This opinion is based on over 25 years working in the gaming industry.

My first job after school was working for Games Workshop where I play tested many games. Some of them RPGs, others boardgames. Warhammer RPG, Talisman and Bloodbowl to name a few.

Then I did over 25 years in the gambling industry.

With the Games Workshop stuff earning skills in either types of games can give you bonuses to dice rolls (RNG).

In the casinos I did 2 years as a Slots Manager. A slot machine can have its percentage payout set at different levels (RNG); they also change there RNG depending on percentage of income compaired to payout.

How do these work in relation to ESO?

Having an achievement could make your chances of a drop better. Master Angler for example could make your chance of getting fishing leads slightly better.

I also think that if it has been a while since an item has been scored it is more than likely to drop. Basically ESO acting like a fruit machine. Best example of this is crown crates (yes they are gambling).

I spent a couple years playing a mobile game called dungeons hunter.

It has loot chests like eso which you needed to be powerful.

There were certain events that appeared to be random, but that I figured out were based on a system.

One thing they did, was increase drop luck during certain time slots. So if you grind an event for several hours, you would see that between (say) :30 and :35 every hour, the drip rate was 5x normal.

Also there was a gear exchange system where you randomly received powerups from discarded gear. The thing was, it wasn't random. When you exchanged certain color combinations, the chance of getting a powerup was x5.

It's not always rng. It's easy to say that's all it is if you can't see patterns.

I agreed with most of your original post and mine was to back you up to a certain point in no way did I mean to offend in any way.

Increasing drop luck in that other game strenghtens my point that RNG can be adjusted. What I call weighted RNG but it is still RNG.

Also, when you did the gear exchange it gave you an increased chance. A chance therefore still random (unless you worded this wrong).

But the line that made me reply the most was your last statement.

I used to hear the patterns argument all the time by avid fruit machine addicts. That way can lead to ruin even in an MMO.

I already know of people playing a lot more than usual because they can see the patterns. This can be detrimental to ones health.

I hope this isn't the case with yourself.

We should all have an healthy time online is what I am trying to say.

I agree with that.

My time in the other game was not healthy. I would write down my attempt at various things, which is how I recognized that they were boosting chance of success during certain time slices on the server.

Actually though, this allowed me to be more successful and play less. I would log on for ten minutes only when chance was boosted. I would work the other 50 minutes of the hour, but ultimately, I was a slave to the game.

That game was hardcore psychological engineering. Abusive p2w chest system. Eso is mild in comparison. I have spent less than 100 over a few years and have access to all the content.

relentless_turnip

I had a theory when finding them during the PTS.
Which was that it is achievement based in the zone you are in. I found I would often get the lead the same time I got an achievement.

Believing this I did most wbs, public dungeons and delves in all zones before the chapter dropped. I still don't know if it's correct, but it has never taken me more than a couple of hours to get all leads for mythics.

Olauron

NupidStoob wrote: »

Olauron wrote: »

And there is no such thing as 'pure RNG', because any RNG you can name 'pure' and will be right.

So any RNG can be pure therefore pure RNG exists. Your statement makes no sense.

When I (and many others) say pure RNG they simply mean that we can't predict or influence the outcome therefore it's meaningless to discuss.

Pure RNG exists or not exists, because there is no way to say what are features of pure RNG and what are features of not pure RNG (and prove it mathematically). You can say 'this RNG is pure and another is not pure", I will answer 'no, another is pure too' and you have no way to prove me wrong. Otherwise, I can say 'the first RNG is not pure' and you have no way to prove that it is.

Except you can. You can predict and you can influence even on you own observations. You can predict and influence the outcome of any RNG, if you have enough data. At the same time your prediction and influence will be wrong, if you have not much data for the same RNG.

Icy_Waffles

I got two fishing leads after 15 minutes of fishing- and it was my first time fishing. I think it’s just RNG.

Eliahnus

Olauron wrote: »

Some of you guys sound like RNG means uniform distribution. RNG doesn't mean such a thing. RNG may be done by uniform distribution, RNG may be done by normal distribution, RNG any be done by any other distribution with any possible additional conditions.

Even if RNG is done as uniform distribution, you can use it any way you want. For example, take d20. This is RNG, this is uniform distribution. Now you can code that if number is bigger than 10 and you have some achievement, then you 'win' (get a lead), at the same time with the same RNG you can code that if number is bigger than 15 and you don't have an achivement, then you 'win' (get a lead). This is the same RNG, but with different conditions and different results.

Then we have seed. What do you know about seed in ESO? Nothing. But seed may be account-based, may be character-based, may be zone-based, may be player session-based, may be server session-based (reset at maintenance), may be simply time-based (current time is used as seed for each RNG usage).

In essence, we have no idea about distribution, we have no idea about conditions, we have no idea about seed (also everything mentioned can be different for different activities, for example leads, motif pages and critical damage may be based on 3 different distributions, conditions and seeds).

And there is no such thing as 'pure RNG', because any RNG you can name 'pure' and will be right.

I fully agree with your post. Most other people have no clue what they are talking about.

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO

Hexquisite wrote: »

I am all for having to work for something, but I think that maybe at 25 or 30 runs, we should just get it, or a token to turn into a vendor.

This would instantly fix the frustration we see from players with extreme bad luck, and also lessen the impact of any possible bugs in the random number generator. If there was a definite, certain end in sight from these long grinds, possibly far away but not far enough to be considered "stupid hard", people would be happy with getting it sooner, and just accept that it might sometimes take the maximum amount of runs. With the current system, some players are fearful of not getting a drop in reasonable time even before they start farming for it. The rotten luck some people are having with these random drops is counter-productive and directly discouraging for others.

finehair

I don't have the chapter but i'm constantly getting them. Whenever i do some dungeon i see some people farming for the lead that drops there, they say "been doing this dungeon for 9 thousand years but got no lead", and then poof my chapterless butt gets the lead on a random try.

bearbelly

I got a gold lead from a thieves trove on a brand new 5-minute old (skipped the tutorial) level 3 character.
It's RNG.

ImmortalCX

bearbelly wrote: »

I got a gold lead from a thieves trove on a brand new 5-minute old (skipped the tutorial) level 3 character.
It's RNG.

OTH, one of the conditions may be that when you have had no leads, there is a much higher chance of feeding them to you.

When patch first dropped, I was given leads by just breathing on things. I've gone back to farm multiple copies and subsequent tries took much more time.

I dont think it is pure RNG. There are rules and conditions governing drop rates.

Firstmep

The tea leaves have foretold of this stupidity.

People thinking RNG is magicc or somehow there is a system.

There isnt. There is a droprate for the leads, thats it.

Move on topic done.

CleymenZero

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Like everyone else, some leads came easy, and some not so much...

One dungeon, Direfrost Keep took 25+ runs to get. However, the fishing leads were all relatively painless.

And more recently, I got the lead from Crypt of Hearts... on my first run!

Yes, this could be explained by pure RNG, but the interesting thing is that I almost never ran Direfrost prior to hunting the lead. Maybe why it took over 25 runs.

And as far as fishing goes? I have done alot of it.

And finally, Crypt of Hearts? I have run that many times, having farmed a full Leviathan set, and also a rare motif that dropped during one of the events a couple years ago.

My hypothesis, is that the content you have run more often, is the content that the leads drop most easily. That said, old long term players should have an easier time getting the drops.

Nope. I suspect there is something at play but it's not that.

I play with a friend who hasn't played much. I basically leveled him to cp 250 in skyreach a LONG time ago. He's a beta player that has been playing on and off but mostly for Light overland questing and his drops were random.

For the wolf mount for example: Volenfell took him about 30 times. He had run it once or twice if not more before but a lead in a Craglorn group delve took him 2 tries but he's never been to Craglorn.

I have been in Craglorn, have done a lot of stuff before including that delve and it took me about 16 tries.

Overland boss took me 20 times, imperial city ones took me 1 try each when I killed the right boss (a guide said the sewer one for the chest piece dropped from a specific boss but 8 tries on the boss and nothing then 1 try on one of the blue banner bosses and dropped right away).

I've done the Vanilla dungeons so many times each. Crypt of Hearts lead dropped on the 1st try but Elden Hollow required 15+ tries.

I don't know if it's completely random but your theory is wrong.

And to be able to determine anything, you'd need SOOOO many more samples and controlled conditions. One person's experience is an anecdote, not tangible data.

CleymenZero

ImmortalCX wrote: »

bearbelly wrote: »

I got a gold lead from a thieves trove on a brand new 5-minute old (skipped the tutorial) level 3 character.
It's RNG.

OTH, one of the conditions may be that when you have had no leads, there is a much higher chance of feeding them to you.

When patch first dropped, I was given leads by just breathing on things. I've gone back to farm multiple copies and subsequent tries took much more time.

I dont think it is pure RNG. There are rules and conditions governing drop rates.

The idea that it could be based on the amount of lead you've accumulated in x period of time seems more plausible. My friend's 30 tries in Volenfell happened at the end of his grind but the next day, it dropped.

I saw a similar pattern where the 1st mythic leads in the day dropped instantly then the last ones took more effort.

Still anecdotal but I haven't seen anything to oppose this hypothesis whereas I've seen a few scenarios refute your initial hypothesis.