Rigged RNG "Hefty Boxes!?!"

Skwor

rng will rng, yes it sucks but just some bad luck

Radiance

Okay guys, give me a break! I'm a psychologist, not a mathematician!

But the point still stands! Thanks all!

zvavi

Radiance wrote: »

Okay, let me break it down for those dismissing this as "bad luck" despite others above saying they've had the same experience.

The Undaunted Event Article says this about Opal Monster Weapon Outfit Style:
"The first time you slay a dungeon’s final boss each day, you’ll earn a special Hefty Undaunted Reward box. These larger containers house the same items as their smaller cousins, but they also contain a random page of the new Opal Monster Weapon Outfit style pages." https://elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/57253

So, according to that there are 5 Weapon Possibilities (Bow, 1-Hand, 2-Hand, Shield and Staff) for each of the 4 Styles (BloodSpawn, Engine Guardian, Ilambris, Troll King)

That means, for every Hefty Box I opened, there is a 1 in 20 ( 5 x 4 = 20 ) chance I will draw a BloodSpawn Battle Axe.

When you put that in Percentages ( 1/20 = .05 x 100 = 5 ) There is a 5% chance I will draw a Bloodspawn Battle Axe.
while there is a 95% chance I will draw anything else.

Now when you expand that over the course of 3 days, there is a 15% chance of me drawing a BloodSpawn Battle Axe
as opposed to a 285% chance of me drawing literally anything else!!!

Now, we know it is not impossible but, considering the math, It IS improbable and again, mentioning those above with the same experience... I propose that this is not a simple case of coincidence or "Bad Luck" but that RNG is NOT in fact Random.

I rest my case. LOL

The math you have used is flawed. Since you would complain if u got triple anything really, we should calculate only ypur chance of getting triple drop. 5% to get double drop. Therefore only 0.25% getting triple, means one in 400 forum users, which makes sense that some will get triple.

Ackwalan

You can add up the math any way you want. The simple fact is, the RNG in this game is terribly flawed.

Dojohoda

RNG is not an intelligent system. It won't check what you have. I'm going with rotten luck.

bearbelly

Dojohoda wrote: »

RNG is not an intelligent system. It won't check what you have. I'm going with rotten luck.

Yup.
Random is as Random does.

Random.

Radiance

bearbelly wrote: »

Dojohoda wrote: »

RNG is not an intelligent system. It won't check what you have. I'm going with rotten luck.

Yup.
Random is as Random does.

Random.

I swear, If I get a BS Battle Axe for a 4th time, I'ma be back to tear y'all a new one! lol...

Ri_Khan

There's absolutely nothing random about any of it when items in the pool have different chances of dropping. The loot that's been deemed as more desirable by the almighty RNGeezus obviously have lower drop rates.

Alinhbo_Tyaka

I've gotten the Opal troll King Bow 3 days in a row. I had similar luck (?) with other RNG dependent items though most of the time everything appears to have the randomness I would expect. I personally think there are times RNG is broken due to a variable not being cleared before use, something being overlayed, a pointer not getting updated, etc.

SidraWillowsky

Ri_Khan wrote: »

There's absolutely nothing random about any of it when items in the pool have different chances of dropping. The loot that's been deemed as more desirable by the almighty RNGeezus obviously have lower drop rates.

I mean... it's still random. If you think about a pool of motif pages with, say, 100 helms, 50 staves, and 25 boots (making that up), randomness = mixing them up then closing your eyes and pulling one out, regardless of the likelihood of grabbing each one. It would be non-random if you looked through them and grabbed one.

I'll add to the discussion that the math people (including me) have been doing assumes an equal probability of obtaining each style page. It sounds like that's not the case and that some are more likely to drop than others. We can't actually say anything about whether or not the probability of getting the same page three days in a row is anomalous enough to arouse suspicion without knowing the underlying distribution.

Ri_Khan

SidraWillowsky wrote: »

I mean... it's still random. If you think about a pool of motif pages with, say, 100 helms, 50 staves, and 25 boots (making that up), randomness = mixing them up then closing your eyes and pulling one out, regardless of the likelihood of grabbing each one. It would be non-random if you looked through them and grabbed one.

I'll add to the discussion that the math people (including me) have been doing assumes an equal probability of obtaining each style page. It sounds like that's not the case and that some are more likely to drop than others. We can't actually say anything about whether or not the probability of getting the same page three days in a row is anomalous enough to arouse suspicion without knowing the underlying distribution.

It's fixed, not random. The dice are loaded here.

SeaGtGruff

I've gotten different pages every day so far.

But I don't think there are 5 possible weapon pages for each style, because when I decided to buy pages for a greatsword and a sword (since I had to spend 10 tickets on something), I basically didn't have any choice of styles for those weapons.

TeamSeinfeld

I also got three bloodspawn battle axes and figured something was off. But they were easy enough to trade for other pages.

Jenzi

Every style page I have got from the hefty boxes has been something I already own apart from once, and I am convinced this is not just bad luck.

jircris11

Radiance wrote: »

Can someone explain to me How TF I got 3 BloodSpawn Battle Axes from 3 Different Boxes, in 3 Different Dungeons, on 2 different characters for 3 days in a row!?
Included my Inventory Insight tab that shows x1 and x 2 on separate characters in blue at the top of pic for proof...

Welcome to rng, same crap ingame as in rl if you gamble.

D0PAMINE

Hanokihs wrote: »

I've gotten 4 troll king battle axes in this event, so I feel your pain; a smidge excessive on the bad luck if you ask me.

I got a bunch of TK axes as well.

Drako_Ei

Thats how RNG works in this game, i have been farming for battleaxe lokkestiiz for 6 months, and when i got it, my next 3 drops were lokkestiiz battleaxe.

In other words, RNG in other games are like:

8, 6, 9, 2, 0, 1, 5, etc...

RNG in eso is like:

5, 5, 5, 8, 3, 8, 8, 8, 8, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 7, 7, etc...

Radiance

Jenzi wrote: »

Every style page I have got from the hefty boxes has been something I already own apart from once, and I am convinced this is not just bad luck.

I think it's a Scheme to get people to spend real money on Crown Store Event Tickets to buy all the pieces they want outright. I've experienced this same method with other game's Events once the game started winding down and stopped bringing in the revenue after a few years. I've been here since beta in 2014 and we're now on year 6, so...

DBZVelena

Ri_Khan wrote: »

SidraWillowsky wrote: »

I mean... it's still random. If you think about a pool of motif pages with, say, 100 helms, 50 staves, and 25 boots (making that up), randomness = mixing them up then closing your eyes and pulling one out, regardless of the likelihood of grabbing each one. It would be non-random if you looked through them and grabbed one.

I'll add to the discussion that the math people (including me) have been doing assumes an equal probability of obtaining each style page. It sounds like that's not the case and that some are more likely to drop than others. We can't actually say anything about whether or not the probability of getting the same page three days in a row is anomalous enough to arouse suspicion without knowing the underlying distribution.

It's fixed, not random. The dice are loaded here.

Only loaded in that the pages from that particular box have a guarantee to drop a style page. Which of the sets possible is however randomly generated.

Finedaible

I have the same problem with motifs and dailies. If i ever do get a motif page from dailies, it is pretty much always the one-and-only page I have ever gotten from the whole collection a billion times before. My guess is that ESO's RNG engine is just poorly made on top of being biased for certain BIS items...

Trikie_Dik

Just be glad they are not bound and you can at least sell them and use the gold to buy ones you actually want!

I keep getting it where i have a few BG boxes to open and once i finally get around to takes the stuff out of the boxes ill have multiple pages of the same style page which are bound and once you learn one you can only destroy the others.

At least with Opal, the style pages can be shared and traded. Another good method is farming helms as you can get multiple per day unlike the heavy box only dropping on the first dungeon and the follow up runs for helms has provided a bonus opal page in my normal undaunted box as well.

Once i got a bunch of helms on Thursday and Friday, i traded them out for other missing pages and finished my set up that way. May not be as easy on the last day since most ppl have the helms nad they are flooding the market - but still worth a shot!

Best of luck!

-Tricky ***

Ye_Olde_Crowe

While I was able to throw a Dragonguard pants party for my guild, I was lucky with the opal styles so far, getting four different drops *knocks on wood*. Stochastics are amazing.

StrandedMonkey

if anyone is unhappy with the contents inside of their undaunted boxes im on PC NA ill take any unwanted motifs
my @name is @StrandedMonkey

idk

Aptonoth wrote: »

Extremely bad luck.

Pretty much this. ^^^^^

Granted, this was bound to happen to someone and you drew that short straw. That does not mean things are rigged. Sorry about your bad luck.

FierceSam

virtus753 wrote: »

Radiance wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

As a math teacher... I cry at how wrong the math is.

(The true math actually supports your premise even more strongly...)

Please enlighten me, I need closure! I'm open to learning!

The chance of drawing three of the same item three times in a row should be its daily chance cubed: 125/1000000 = 0.0125%

Improbable, for sure. But as low of a chance as that is, it doesn’t strike me as out of the realm of chance entirely.

The chance of drawing the same item (out of 20 items) 3 times is 1 * 0.05 * 0.05 as it doesn’t matter what the first item is, so you only have to match it twice. This is the OP’s use case - “having got a Bloodspawn Battle Axe, what are the chances of getting another 2?”

The chance of drawing the same specific item (out of 20 items) 3 times is 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.05

Ye_Olde_Crowe

Ye_Olde_Crowe wrote: »

While I was able to throw a Dragonguard pants party for my guild, I was lucky with the opal styles so far, getting four different drops *knocks on wood*. Stochastics are amazing.

I was lucky again, five different drops. All is good.

Ackwalan

Three shields, a bow and greatsword. Seems like a lot of folks got stuck on a bias RNG.

SydneyGrey

RNG does that to me, too, all the time in this game. If I get one thing as a drop, it's common for me to get the exact same thing again within minutes. I don't think the RNG is really as random as ZOS claims it is.

rpa

It can be luck, intentional or "feature" of rng implementation. A good RNG is infamously difficult to make and it is easy to get biased results from misuse of statistically good random numbers. Also early algorithms for pseudorandom numbers were not very good and are still used in various program libraries with no understanding of their weaknesses.

SirAndy

Radiance wrote: »

Can someone explain to me How TF I got 3 BloodSpawn Battle Axes from 3 Different Boxes, in 3 Different Dungeons, on 2 different characters for 3 days in a row!?

Weighted RNG is weighted ...