Rigged RNG "Hefty Boxes!?!"

Radiance · January 12

Can someone explain to me How TF I got 3 BloodSpawn Battle Axes from 3 Different Boxes, in 3 Different Dungeons, on 2 different characters for 3 days in a row!?
Included my Inventory Insight tab that shows x1 and x 2 on separate characters in blue at the top of pic for proof...

Aptonoth · January 12

Extremely bad luck.

Pauls · January 12

No explanation except you got cursed by RNG

Saucy_Jack · January 12

Didn't perform the proper rituals at the temple of Snugglorr

O_LYKOS · January 12

Unlucky. It happens. Maybe you can trade with players for the ones you want

oddbasket · January 12

I've got 3 engine guardian's staves, but they seem to be in high demand so it was easy to trade them off.

macsmooth · January 12

Same here I’ve got multiple Bloodspawn shield sitting on my character, these drops should be intelligent drops priority to non known motifs specially with how short this event is

Radiance · January 12

Aptonoth wrote: »

Extremely bad luck.

That's my point though, Twice would be Bad Luck but 3 times is beyond coincidence...

oddbasket wrote: »

I've got 3 engine guardian's staves, but they seem to be in high demand so it was easy to trade them off.

I wouldn't be here complaining if they were in high demand lol. I wouldn't mind an Engine Guardian Staff myself! @oddbasket!

O_LYKOS wrote: »

Unlucky. It happens. Maybe you can trade with players for the ones you want

If anyone is interested, Please hit me up! (PC NA)

SeaGtGruff · January 12

Radiance wrote: »

Aptonoth wrote: »

Extremely bad luck.

That's my point though, Twice would be Bad Luck but 3 times is beyond coincidence...

That's the thing about RNG-- it stinks! Except sometimes it smells like a lovely rose lying on a box of yummy chocolates.

pod88kk · January 12

Looks like someone didn't sacrifice their first born........rookie mistake

Hanokihs · January 12

I've gotten 4 troll king battle axes in this event, so I feel your pain; a smidge excessive on the bad luck if you ask me.

Neoealth · January 12

That is the nature of random. You can get the same thing many times in a row. The dice has no memory! RNG does not really care about you.

Dusk_Coven · January 12

I've seen posts of people complaining about RNG when they do repeats of something (e.g., buy a lot of undaunted shoulder boxes) but this is spread over three days so it seems less likely to be a rare bug and more likely to be actually a rare case of RNG being weird.

Just in case, have you checked if your game files need Repair?

Danikat · January 12

If you were guarenteed to get a different item each day that would actually be less random than if it was possible to get the same thing three times in a row.

If you're in a guild with a trader you could sell the duplicates and use the gold to buy ones you need. Or sell in zone chat. Based on TTC I'd recommend about 30k - 40k for a guarenteed/quick sale (which is about the price I've been listing other opal pages).

r34lian · January 12

Cuz u failed in path to alaxon

BoraxFlux · January 12

Can I have one for free?
#scrub4life

Nestor · January 12

It seems even with the regular Motif Chapters that Axes are the most common items to drop. Prices in Guild Stores back that view up. Of course, Chest, Legs, Helm, Staves are the ones that never seem to drop. However, it is still RNG

In this event, it is head, shoulders and weapons that are the only items for Opal.

Radiance · January 12

Okay, let me break it down for those dismissing this as "bad luck" despite others above saying they've had the same experience.

The Undaunted Event Article says this about Opal Monster Weapon Outfit Style:
"The first time you slay a dungeon’s final boss each day, you’ll earn a special Hefty Undaunted Reward box. These larger containers house the same items as their smaller cousins, but they also contain a random page of the new Opal Monster Weapon Outfit style pages." https://elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/57253

So, according to that there are 5 Weapon Possibilities (Bow, 1-Hand, 2-Hand, Shield and Staff) for each of the 4 Styles (BloodSpawn, Engine Guardian, Ilambris, Troll King)

That means, for every Hefty Box I opened, there is a 1 in 20 ( 5 x 4 = 20 ) chance I will draw a BloodSpawn Battle Axe.

When you put that in Percentages ( 1/20 = .05 x 100 = 5 ) There is a 5% chance I will draw a Bloodspawn Battle Axe.
while there is a 95% chance I will draw anything else.

Now when you expand that over the course of 3 days, there is a 15% chance of me drawing a BloodSpawn Battle Axe

as opposed to a 285% chance of me drawing literally anything else!!!

Now, we know it is not impossible but, considering the math, It IS improbable and again, mentioning those above with the same experience... I propose that this is not a simple case of coincidence or "Bad Luck" but that RNG is NOT in fact Random.

I rest my case. LOL

tmbrinks · January 12

Radiance wrote: »

Okay, let me break it down for those dismissing this as "bad luck" despite others above saying they've had the same experience.

The Undaunted Event Article says this about Opal Monster Weapon Outfit Style:
"The first time you slay a dungeon’s final boss each day, you’ll earn a special Hefty Undaunted Reward box. These larger containers house the same items as their smaller cousins, but they also contain a random page of the new Opal Monster Weapon Outfit style pages." https://elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/57253

So, according to that there are 5 Weapon Possibilities (Bow, 1-Hand, 2-Hand, Shield and Staff) for each of the 4 Styles (BloodSpawn, Engine Guardian, Ilambris, Troll King)

That means, for every Hefty Box I opened, there is a 1 in 20 ( 5 x 4 = 20 ) chance I will draw a BloodSpawn Battle Axe.

When you put that in Percentages ( 1/20 = .05 x 100 = 5 ) There is a 5% chance I will draw a Bloodspawn Battle Axe.
while there is a 95% chance I will draw anything else.

Now when you expand that over the course of 3 days, there is a 15% chance of me drawing a BloodSpawn Battle Axe
as opposed to a 285% chance of me drawing literally anything else!!!

Now, we know it is not impossible but, considering the math, It IS improbable and again, mentioning those above with the same experience... I propose that this is not a simple case of coincidence or "Bad Luck" but that RNG is NOT in fact Random.

I rest my case. LOL

As a math teacher... I cry at how wrong the math is.

(The true math actually supports your premise even more strongly...)

Radiance · January 12

tmbrinks wrote: »

As a math teacher... I cry at how wrong the math is.

(The true math actually supports your premise even more strongly...)

Please enlighten me, I need closure! I'm open to learning!
@tmbrinks

akdave0 · January 12

Shouldn’t there be an algorithm that doesn’t allow duplicates to happen in the first place?
That would make sense, yes?

tmbrinks · January 12

Radiance wrote: »

Please enlighten me then, I need closure. Teach me, i'm open to learning.

If you have a 5% chance of getting one each day... the odds of you getting 1 specific one in 3 days is actually (1 - .95^3) or 14.2%

The odds of you getting the same specific one 3 days in a row is 0.05^3 or 0.0125%

The odds of getting the same thing 3 days in a row is actually .05^2 or .25% (since the first day you get 1 randomly, then the next 2 days have to be the same)

So, yes, it's rare.. but its a 1 in 400 chance... so lets just say that there are roughly 100,000 people doing the dungeons like this across all servers.. that means the expected number of people that would get the same item in 3 consecutive boxes is 250.

bearbelly · January 12

akdave0 wrote: »

Shouldn’t there be an algorithm that doesn’t allow duplicates to happen in the first place?
That would make sense, yes?

If you can find a gaming company that uses such a thing, let me know.

Pauls · January 12

For math it will be (0.05)³ which is 0.000125, absurdly small chance really

Though I've never heard from guildmates that they got same pages again, nor I, so its first time I see such case

tmbrinks · January 12

Pauls wrote: »

For math it will be (0.05)³ which is 0.000125, absurdly small chance really

See above, but that is for 1 specific type of page of the 20. Not for getting the same one (out of all of the 20 possibilities) 3 days consecutively.

virtus753 · January 12

Radiance wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

As a math teacher... I cry at how wrong the math is.

(The true math actually supports your premise even more strongly...)

Please enlighten me, I need closure! I'm open to learning!

The chance of drawing three of the same item three times in a row should be its daily chance cubed: 125/1000000 = 0.0125%

Improbable, for sure. But as low of a chance as that is, it doesn’t strike me as out of the realm of chance entirely.

Radiance · January 12

tmbrinks wrote: »

Radiance wrote: »

Please enlighten me then, I need closure. Teach me, i'm open to learning.

If you have a 5% chance of getting one each day... the odds of you getting 1 specific one in 3 days is actually (1 - .95^3) or 14.2%

The odds of you getting the same specific one 3 days in a row is 0.05^3 or 0.0125%

The odds of getting the same thing 3 days in a row is actually .05^2 or .25% (since the first day you get 1 randomly, then the next 2 days have to be the same)

So, yes, it's rare.. but its a 1 in 400 chance... so lets just say that there are roughly 100,000 people doing the dungeons like this across all servers.. that means the expected number of people that would get the same item in 3 consecutive boxes is 250.

I knew I'm not crazy, just a little dumb ! Love you!

akdave0 · January 12

bearbelly wrote: »

akdave0 wrote: »

Shouldn’t there be an algorithm that doesn’t allow duplicates to happen in the first place?
That would make sense, yes?

If you can find a gaming company that uses such a thing, let me know.

Halo 5, you get a pack and there are armor pieces in there and weapons and buffs. Once you get the armor piece, it never drops again. Huzzah.

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO · January 12

Radiance wrote: »

...
When you put that in Percentages ( 1/20 = .05 x 100 = 5 ) There is a 5% chance I will draw a Bloodspawn Battle Axe.
while there is a 95% chance I will draw anything else.

Now when you expand that over the course of 3 days, there is a 15% chance of me drawing a BloodSpawn Battle Axe
as opposed to a 285% chance of me drawing literally anything else!!!

Um. Your math is not only wrong, your result does not even make sense. There is no such thing as a "285% chance". You use multiplication, not addition, to calculate the probabilities for multiple dice rolls, regardless of whether they happen in sequence or all at once. But yes, your luck with the RNG was extremely bad.

3 rolls at 5% chance each (probability 0.05) for getting something makes 1 - (1-0.05)(1-0.05)(1-0.05) = 0.143, or slightly more than a 14% chance, about one in seven, of getting it at least once in three rolls. Getting it all three times, like you did, has a probability of (0.05)^3 = 0.000125, which is a 0.0125% chance, one in eight thousand. One person in eight thousand will have that kind of bad luck with the drops. Multiplied by the number of items (20), an average of 20 people in eight thousand will get the same page (among any of the 20 available) three times in a row. Expressed as a percentage, that's a 0.25% chance.

There are considerably more than eight thousand players in the game, so rest assured that you are not alone. However, you are a "statistical outlier", and I can only wish you better luck next time!

furiouslog · January 12

Radiance wrote: »

Okay, let me break it down for those dismissing this as "bad luck" despite others above saying they've had the same experience.

The Undaunted Event Article says this about Opal Monster Weapon Outfit Style:
"The first time you slay a dungeon’s final boss each day, you’ll earn a special Hefty Undaunted Reward box. These larger containers house the same items as their smaller cousins, but they also contain a random page of the new Opal Monster Weapon Outfit style pages." https://elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/57253

So, according to that there are 5 Weapon Possibilities (Bow, 1-Hand, 2-Hand, Shield and Staff) for each of the 4 Styles (BloodSpawn, Engine Guardian, Ilambris, Troll King)

That means, for every Hefty Box I opened, there is a 1 in 20 ( 5 x 4 = 20 ) chance I will draw a BloodSpawn Battle Axe.

When you put that in Percentages ( 1/20 = .05 x 100 = 5 ) There is a 5% chance I will draw a Bloodspawn Battle Axe.
while there is a 95% chance I will draw anything else.

Now when you expand that over the course of 3 days, there is a 15% chance of me drawing a BloodSpawn Battle Axe
as opposed to a 285% chance of me drawing literally anything else!!!

Now, we know it is not impossible but, considering the math, It IS improbable and again, mentioning those above with the same experience... I propose that this is not a simple case of coincidence or "Bad Luck" but that RNG is NOT in fact Random.

I rest my case. LOL

Not quite right. But you're in the ball park. You have a 5% chance on each draw to pick the item. So, the odds that you'll get the same item in all three amounts to .05^3, or a 1 in 8000 chance that it would happen. Given that there are probably more than 8000 people on the server that are participating, it was likely going to happen to someone.

tmbrinks · January 12

virtus753 wrote: »

Radiance wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

As a math teacher... I cry at how wrong the math is.

(The true math actually supports your premise even more strongly...)

Please enlighten me, I need closure! I'm open to learning!

The chance of drawing three of the same item three times in a row should be its daily chance cubed: 125/1000000 = 0.0125%

Improbable, for sure. But as low of a chance as that is, it doesn’t strike me as out of the realm of chance entirely.

Again, see above.

But 0.0125% is the odds of pulling a specific page 3 days in a row, NOT the chance of getting the same page 3 days in a row. That is 1 * .05 * .05 = 0.25% (1 in 400)