Gear drop mechanics

Gargath

Can you please do something with the drop mechanics, when we desire to farm a set in a dungeon we usually end up with garbage mutliple times.
I could do many Selene's Web runs for a Durok's Bane pieces and usually only trousers reinforced drops there and no pieces in impenetrable.

Maybe it's something broken with this set or that dungeon, since I dropped a complete divines Netch's Touch for my sorc in just few runs, just few weeks ago.

Taleof2Cities

Drop mechanics are working fine, @Gargath ... don’t expect a complete set in three runs through the dungeon.

Remember that you can transmute traits using a transmute station ... reducing the grind significantly.

redspecter23

They added transmutation a while back to help reduce the grind. There was much rejoicing. A great victory of our age. The grind you perceive now is nothing in comparison.

I recommend going in with 3 friends who are willing to help you find the pieces you need. Know the locations of the chests in the dungeon and hit them if at all possible. Maximize your chances of receiving the loot you want. Use transmutation to fill in the gaps at the end. A full set of Durok's Bane with mostly correct traits should take an afternoon, perhaps a few evenings worth of running the dungeon at most.

Ender1310

What infuriates me are resto staves dropping in stamina sets or vice versa. Ugh!!! So frustrating to get blood drinker resto staff! Cmon!

Sparr0w

Got a vMA bow first run in nirn, ran CoA1 over 100 times for any sight of an inferno BSW staff.

Apache_Kid

What i don't understand about drops is that many times after opening a chest or killing a boss, multiple people in the group will get the exact same drop. Same piece same trait. This seems to happen a lot to groups i am in for dungeons where 3 people will get the exact same loot drop. Something has to be off here because the chances of that happening are extremely low and it happens all the time. My friends and i comment on it a lot. It's not pure RNG. There is some weirdness to it.

Gallagher563

Apache_Kid wrote: »

What i don't understand about drops is that many times after opening a chest or killing a boss, multiple people in the group will get the exact same drop. Same piece same trait. This seems to happen a lot to groups i am in for dungeons where 3 people will get the exact same loot drop. Something has to be off here because the chances of that happening are extremely low and it happens all the time. My friends and i comment on it a lot. It's not pure RNG. There is some weirdness to it.

I see this a lot as well. I play on PS4 so it must across all platforms.

Apache_Kid

Gallagher563 wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

What i don't understand about drops is that many times after opening a chest or killing a boss, multiple people in the group will get the exact same drop. Same piece same trait. This seems to happen a lot to groups i am in for dungeons where 3 people will get the exact same loot drop. Something has to be off here because the chances of that happening are extremely low and it happens all the time. My friends and i comment on it a lot. It's not pure RNG. There is some weirdness to it.

I see this a lot as well. I play on PS4 so it must across all platforms.

Yup Xbox NA here. It just happens way too much to be a coincidence with how big the loot table is for each dungeon.

code65536

Apache_Kid wrote: »

What i don't understand about drops is that many times after opening a chest or killing a boss, multiple people in the group will get the exact same drop. Same piece same trait. This seems to happen a lot to groups i am in for dungeons where 3 people will get the exact same loot drop. Something has to be off here because the chances of that happening are extremely low and it happens all the time. My friends and i comment on it a lot. It's not pure RNG. There is some weirdness to it.

It most certainly does not "happen all the time" to me. It's more likely that you are experiencing observational bias. Exceptional cases stick more sharply in your mind, while the mundane is usually quickly filtered out and dismissed, so the former seem more frequent than they actually are.

Yes, there have been times when two or more people received the exact same item with the exact same trait from a boss. But in my experience, that's a small handful of incidents out of hundreds of boss kills.

Apache_Kid

code65536 wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

What i don't understand about drops is that many times after opening a chest or killing a boss, multiple people in the group will get the exact same drop. Same piece same trait. This seems to happen a lot to groups i am in for dungeons where 3 people will get the exact same loot drop. Something has to be off here because the chances of that happening are extremely low and it happens all the time. My friends and i comment on it a lot. It's not pure RNG. There is some weirdness to it.

It most certainly does not "happen all the time" to me. It's more likely that you are experiencing observational bias. Exceptional cases stick more sharply in your mind, while the mundane is usually quickly filtered out and dismissed, so the former seem more frequent than they actually are.

Yes, there have been times when two or more people received the exact same item with the exact same trait from a boss. But in my experience, that's a small handful of incidents out of hundreds of boss kills.

I disagree. in groups where everyone links there gear (runs with friends or guildmates which is almost all of my runs) I feel like it happens once per dungeon almost. I've spoken with plenty of other people who feel the same way.

And with everything that doesn't work as it is supposed to in this I would not be surprised in the absolute slightest if the algorithms for loot drops were a little wonky. If that would surprise you then we are playing different games.

Gallagher563

On a mini boss in a dungeon the odds are 3 sets * 3 different body parts * 8 traits = 1/72 for any piece so for 2 people to get the same item on the same boss the odds should be 1/(72)^2 or 0.019%. The odds in the game are way higher than this. According to these odds it should happen once every 5000 runs.

Gallagher563

These are the odds for just two people so the odds for four people would be 3/(72*72) or .058%.

redspecter23

The math feels a bit off on that. 72 different items (all traits included). Player 1 gets item X. The individual odds of each team mate getting item X as well is 1/72 for each. 3 rolls of 1/72 at each boss adds up. 5 bosses is 15 individual chances at 1/72 for a match in that instance. 1 in 5 dungeons approximately would result in a perfect match item. Admittedly, even my numbers are approximations but having exactly the same item drop for multiple players isn't as astronomical as it seems at first.

Gallagher563

You have to remember that 1/72 is the best odds in a dungeon and only occurs on mini bosses that can only drop three different armor slots. I will try to calculate the full odds for COA1.

Gallagher563

The odds for a 4 person dungeon such as COA1 for 2 people to get the same set piece in the same trait is about 0.25%. This works out to about once every 500 runs.

redspecter23

Gallagher563 wrote: »

The odds for a 4 person dungeon such as COA1 for 2 people to get the same set piece in the same trait is about 0.25%. This works out to about once every 500 runs.

It appears we have 2 very different numbers. 1 in 5 is vastly different compared to 1 in 500.

code65536

Gallagher563 wrote: »

The odds for a 4 person dungeon such as COA1 for 2 people to get the same set piece in the same trait is about 0.25%. This works out to about once every 500 runs.

Your math is wildly incorrect.

Each miniboss can drop either 4 "major" pieces (chest, legs, head, shoulders) or 3 "minor" pieces (hands, feet, waist). In 3 weights. In 8 traits.

So the probability of getting a specific piece from major boss is 1/(4*3*8) = 1/96. From a minor boss, it's 1/(3*3*8) = 1/72.

The probability of 2 people in a group of 4 getting the exact same major piece from a single boss is:
1 - (95/96)(94/96)(93/96) = 6.1%.

The probability of 2 people in a group of 4 getting the exact same minor piece from a single boss is:
1 - (71/72)(70/72)(69/72) = 8.1%.

The typical dungeon has 6 bosses. 2 major, 3 minor, and 1 final boss. Let's ignore the final boss loot and just look at the 5 bosses before the final boss.

The probability of an identical drop happening on any non-final boss in a single dungeon run is thus:

1-(((95/96)(94/96)(93/96))^2 * ((71/72)(70/72)(69/72))^3) = 31.6%.

That is to say, in almost one in three dungeon runs, you will see an incident of double drops.

This only looks at identical drops on the same boss (e.g., if Alice gets an infused heavy chest on boss 2 and Bob gets that same chest on boss 4, it would not be counted here). The probability gets higher if you consider cumulative drops over the entire dungeon and remove the same-boss restriction. I'll leave the math for that as an exercise to the reader.


Edit: So this math actually shows that my statement earlier in this thread is likely inaccurate. These things do happen somewhat frequently. But it's perfectly normal and to be expected.

Willard

The trick is to go in farming something other than what you want!! This way you will actually get what you want, but are not farming:)

Gallagher563

redspecter23 wrote: »

Gallagher563 wrote: »

The odds for a 4 person dungeon such as COA1 for 2 people to get the same set piece in the same trait is about 0.25%. This works out to about once every 500 runs.

It appears we have 2 very different numbers. 1 in 5 is vastly different compared to 1 in 500.

I am off by a factor of 10 mostly because I am running math for single instances instead of thinking about it all as 1 drop with 23 more opportunities for duplicates. New number is 23% so you are right.

Gallagher563

So it looks like the chance of finding a duplicate item are 1/4 to 1/3 depending on number of bosses and chests.

LiquidPony

Apache_Kid wrote: »

code65536 wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

What i don't understand about drops is that many times after opening a chest or killing a boss, multiple people in the group will get the exact same drop. Same piece same trait. This seems to happen a lot to groups i am in for dungeons where 3 people will get the exact same loot drop. Something has to be off here because the chances of that happening are extremely low and it happens all the time. My friends and i comment on it a lot. It's not pure RNG. There is some weirdness to it.

It most certainly does not "happen all the time" to me. It's more likely that you are experiencing observational bias. Exceptional cases stick more sharply in your mind, while the mundane is usually quickly filtered out and dismissed, so the former seem more frequent than they actually are.

Yes, there have been times when two or more people received the exact same item with the exact same trait from a boss. But in my experience, that's a small handful of incidents out of hundreds of boss kills.

I disagree. in groups where everyone links there gear (runs with friends or guildmates which is almost all of my runs) I feel like it happens once per dungeon almost. I've spoken with plenty of other people who feel the same way.

And with everything that doesn't work as it is supposed to in this I would not be surprised in the absolute slightest if the algorithms for loot drops were a little wonky. If that would surprise you then we are playing different games.

On PC you see everyone's drops all the time (with Loot Drop or any number of other addons), and I can't say I've ever observed that duplicate drops happen any more often than they ought to.

Like most of the loot table conspiracy theories, I'd wager this is some combination of small sample size and cognitive bias.

Bobby_V_Rockit

Yup, still lookin for that 2H automoton weapon. Dont even care which one or what trait... done it like 30 times in 3 days