Some very interesting Halalu writ gambling box information from PTS

f047ys3v3n

So, since there really isn't anything I want to buy with writ vouchers, I have a big pile of gold, and ZOS seems to decrease writ voucher drop rates every patch, I have just been piling up the ones I get in the slim hope that sometime in the far future ZOS suddenly decides they want these things to matter again. Who knows, they might, ZOS is pretty operatic and dramatic in their mood swings on this type of thing . When ZOS reset the PTS Monday I had 1099 of them. I figured, what the hell, lets buy a bunch of *** overpriced gambling bags and see what I get. I bought 20 purple ones,59 blue ones, and opened them all. I was kind of curious how many of the morrowind recipes I would get since I hear endless [snip] about how rare they are and they are quite valuable. I also wanted to see if any clockwork ones dropped since I had actually gotten a few of those questing the week before on PTS so they could be in the loot table.

I got..... 0 of them. Actually, 100% of the crafting recipes I got were from the set that launched with homestead. Not a single one was from morrowind, SotH, or Clockwork. Now I should note that I do not own morrowind as I am not paying them for what they did to combat with that update. I did have the other dlc's on the PTS though since you buy them with one crown.

I am not sure if this all is normal or is a PTS bug but I figured that I should let folks know as they actually massively raised prices on these gambling boxes with morrowind but they do not appear to be capable of dropping anything you probably want. Few of the original recipes are really worth anything these days and most can be easily acquired from guild stores for far less gold then those boxes would exchange to.

Anyhow, Caveat Emptor, especially when it comes to ZOS and gambling. I didn't get anything in my free event crown crates either but this actually surprised me whereas I expected the crown crates to be empty.

Taleof2Cities

I think you might have been able to find this info in the forums ... but fortunately for you the experiment was done on PTS instead of Live.

1. While the Horns of the Reach (HoTR) patch brought changes to the gold recipes offered by Rolis Hlaalu (master writ vendor) ... no changes were made to the loot tables for the purple random recipes. That is known and intended. In addition, you did notice the cost was increased in the HoTR patch for those ... which was announced on PTS in August.

Side note, I'd like to see Morrowind furniture recipes offered by Rolis Hlaalu, too. However, the expansion has only been out a few months ... so it's far from old content.

2. Full purple motif books learned have a small influence on the drop rates for master writs. ZOS keeps adding the new motif books learned to the drop rate calculation each major patch. In other words, if you're not keeping up with the motif books learned each patch, the master writ drop rate will decrease for you. That's known and intended.

The most recent motifs added to the drop rate calculation (HoTR patch) were Morag Tong, Ashlander, and Buoyant Armiger.

3. The Clockwork City recipes seem to be dropping fine in the usual areas ... containers and sometimes on mobs. Because it's brand new content, the chances are pretty low ZOS allows these to drop on the master writ vendor.

4. The Crown Crates are pure RNG. ZOS doesn't publish the "odds" of getting a mount for instance. However, there is no other gameplay or outside modifier to get a specific item ... which is different from the master writ drop rates explained above.

Tevalaur

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

2. Full purple motif books learned have a small influence on the drop rates for master writs. ZOS keeps adding the new motif books learned to the drop rate calculation each major patch. In other words, if you're not keeping up with the motif books learned each patch, the master writ drop rate will decrease for you. That's known and intended.

Actually, I remember them saying that the master writ drop rate would only get better and better as you learned new motifs and never worse, but yeah, that doesn't seem to be what actually happened as they seem to use a ratio of known/available instead of just incrementing for each motif known.

Taleof2Cities

Tevalaur wrote: »

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

2. Full purple motif books learned have a small influence on the drop rates for master writs. ZOS keeps adding the new motif books learned to the drop rate calculation each major patch. In other words, if you're not keeping up with the motif books learned each patch, the master writ drop rate will decrease for you. That's known and intended.

Actually, I remember them saying that the master writ drop rate would only get better and better as you learned new motifs and never worse, but yeah, that doesn't seem to be what actually happened as they seem to use a ratio of known/available instead of just incrementing for each motif known.

Thanks, @Tevalaur, I didn't know that. If that IS intended that doesn't seem to be what's happening in-game ...

Tevalaur

@Taleof2Cities I just found the original quote so thought that I'd share:

ZOS_JessicaFolsom wrote: »

feyii wrote: »

Thanks for clarifying this! I would also be interested in how exactly the completed Motifs increase our chances to receive a Master Writ. Is it each known Motif or the percentage of known Motifs out of all that are currently available which increases our chances? In the latter case, this would mean, whenever new Motifs are introduced, our chances are reduced again.

Your chance to get Master Writs will not go down when new Motifs are added to the game; your chance will only go up in small increments as you get more.

f047ys3v3n

Tevalaur wrote: »

@Taleof2Cities I just found the original quote so thought that I'd share:

ZOS_JessicaFolsom wrote: »

feyii wrote: »

Thanks for clarifying this! I would also be interested in how exactly the completed Motifs increase our chances to receive a Master Writ. Is it each known Motif or the percentage of known Motifs out of all that are currently available which increases our chances? In the latter case, this would mean, whenever new Motifs are introduced, our chances are reduced again.

Your chance to get Master Writs will not go down when new Motifs are added to the game; your chance will only go up in small increments as you get more.

Nice, love these old quotes. That sure didn't turn out to be so accurate did it. Guess somebody changed their mind about it and left Jessica to take the shots.

Taleof2Cities

f047ys3v3n wrote: »

Nice, love these old quotes. That sure didn't turn out to be so accurate did it. Guess somebody changed their mind about it and left Jessica to take the shots.

Be careful.

Sometimes a game mechanic can be intended ... but still be broken or bugged. Which can be after Jess has done her due diligence in posting the intended mechanic in the forums. It has happened in the past and is not the Community Manager's fault.

If crafters are reporting a decrease in the drop rate after major successive patches (in which three crafters who are regulars in this subforum are) then that could be something unintended.

Truthsnark

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

f047ys3v3n wrote: »

Nice, love these old quotes. That sure didn't turn out to be so accurate did it. Guess somebody changed their mind about it and left Jessica to take the shots.

Be careful.

Sometimes a game mechanic can be intended ... but still be broken or bugged. Which can be after Jess has done her due diligence in posting the intended mechanic in the forums. It has happened in the past and is not the Community Manager's fault.

If crafters are reporting a decrease in the drop rate after major successive patches (in which three crafters who are regulars in this subforum are) then that could be something unintended.

Something that makes me crazy that I see very frequently on these forums are people who think that because they, and/or also one of their guildmates are experiencing "reduced" drop rates, it must be true for all cases. Three players is still a very small sample size and wildly volatile based on RNG, particularly if any of these people are self-reporting, such as "it feels like less". You would need a database tracking many thousands of events over a significant enough period of time to see a pattern to the drop rates. I am certain they can track and see writ delivery rates. If ZOS has stated that master writ delivery will not reduce as new motifs are added to the game, I believe them.

WhiteCoatSyndrome

f047ys3v3n wrote: »

I got..... 0 of them. Actually, 100% of the crafting recipes I got were from the set that launched with homestead. Not a single one was from morrowind, SotH, or Clockwork. Now I should note that I do not own morrowind as I am not paying them for what they did to combat with that update. I did have the other dlc's on the PTS though since you buy them with one crown.

I also tried this on the PTS with similar results. 20+ blue level documents, and none of them produced furnishing recipes from anything but the base races. Note that I do have Morrowind.

code65536

The increase in prices happened in Morrowind, not HotR. And no, they don't contain any of the new plans from Morrowind or HotR or Clockwork. This has been known for a while, and people have been asking for it to be changed, though those pleas have so far fallen on deaf ears.

f047ys3v3n

Truthsnark wrote: »

Something that makes me crazy that I see very frequently on these forums are people who think that because they, and/or also one of their guildmates are experiencing "reduced" drop rates, it must be true for all cases. Three players is still a very small sample size and wildly volatile based on RNG, particularly if any of these people are self-reporting, such as "it feels like less". You would need a database tracking many thousands of events over a significant enough period of time to see a pattern to the drop rates. I am certain they can track and see writ delivery rates. If ZOS has stated that master writ delivery will not reduce as new motifs are added to the game, I believe them.

You are welcome to believe them. I think RNG has been dramatically curtailed. I received 2.3 master writs on average per day pre-morrowind. I am at .8 post HotR. More dramatic is the exactly 1 gold equipment writ post morrowind. Several times I had more than 3 in just one week before. I think the drops are not only dramatically reduced but also the magnitude of vouchers yielded by the drops is also reduced, and with the inclusion of the new motifs so is the value of many of the drops (new motif writs sell for peanuts because of how rare and expensive they are.) ZOS can state what they like and RNG being what it is I could just be experiencing the mother of all dry streaks. It is far more likely that, intentionally or not, drop rates have been massively nerfed.

As for ZOS honesty, let me run a few things for you:
We have no intention of going to a free to play model. (this was said while they were internally making the transition)
We are going to lower the ceiling and raise the floor. (Sure maybe morowind changes were just magnificent ineptitude but they at least doubled the separation)
You will always get to play the new content while subscribed (or at least until we think of new revenue streams)
AOE caps will never be removed. (It is good the eventually changed their mind and reverted on this)

ZOS has, in no way, ever been either honest or open in their communication with the player base. I do not see why anyone would be inclined to believe that any of their statements about either general game direction and philosophy or even specific game issues are truthful.

Truthsnark

f047ys3v3n wrote: »

Truthsnark wrote: »

Something that makes me crazy that I see very frequently on these forums are people who think that because they, and/or also one of their guildmates are experiencing "reduced" drop rates, it must be true for all cases. Three players is still a very small sample size and wildly volatile based on RNG, particularly if any of these people are self-reporting, such as "it feels like less". You would need a database tracking many thousands of events over a significant enough period of time to see a pattern to the drop rates. I am certain they can track and see writ delivery rates. If ZOS has stated that master writ delivery will not reduce as new motifs are added to the game, I believe them.

You are welcome to believe them. I think RNG has been dramatically curtailed. I received 2.3 master writs on average per day pre-morrowind. I am at .8 post HotR. More dramatic is the exactly 1 gold equipment writ post morrowind. Several times I had more than 3 in just one week before. I think the drops are not only dramatically reduced but also the magnitude of vouchers yielded by the drops is also reduced, and with the inclusion of the new motifs so is the value of many of the drops (new motif writs sell for peanuts because of how rare and expensive they are.) ZOS can state what they like and RNG being what it is I could just be experiencing the mother of all dry streaks. It is far more likely that, intentionally or not, drop rates have been massively nerfed.

As for ZOS honesty, let me run a few things for you:
We have no intention of going to a free to play model. (this was said while they were internally making the transition)
We are going to lower the ceiling and raise the floor. (Sure maybe morowind changes were just magnificent ineptitude but they at least doubled the separation)
You will always get to play the new content while subscribed (or at least until we think of new revenue streams)
AOE caps will never be removed. (It is good the eventually changed their mind and reverted on this)

ZOS has, in no way, ever been either honest or open in their communication with the player base. I do not see why anyone would be inclined to believe that any of their statements about either general game direction and philosophy or even specific game issues are truthful.

Alright. My master writ drop rate (including equipment writs) has increased post-HoTR. So using your argument, my experience proves that actually, ZOS increased writ drop rates. Or hey, RNG.

DiteHart

Truthsnark wrote: »

Alright. My master writ drop rate (including equipment writs) has increased post-HoTR. So using your argument, my experience proves that actually, ZOS increased writ drop rates. Or hey, RNG.

Or, you know, you completing any purple motifs. Or completed any crafting achievements. Or, if you're including provisioning writs, got any new purple or gold recipes.
Because, that should factor in your increases if it is correctly coded as ZOS said it should. (With no way to decrease your drop rate except writ completion, which we are all assuming is a constant, decreases don't have any extras to factor in.)

What they're mainly saying is that ZOS has a history of messing things up and/or changing their mechanics despite saying otherwise, and that they're seeing something that may be an issue, and are trying to get it cleared up (whether they fix it, or get an official "working as intended").

When it comes to discussing the drop rates, you're the one saying definitive words like "must be" and "proves". The people you quote are saying "sometimes", "could be", and "I think". The closest thing to a definitive was "far more likely", and that still acknowledges that might not be a problem.

RNG does factor in, but since we don't know the odds, we can only go by (A)length of time, and (B)how the drop rate changed.
So, f047ys3v3n is saying that over the last 3 months, his average dropped to nearly 1/3 of his old average over the last three months. It's possible for it to be RNG, but it could still be a red flag. Especially, if he completed any purple motif--if it is a long RNG rut, then the rut is so bad that it's also offsetting any increases he's done.

I_killed_Vivec

DiteHart wrote: »

Truthsnark wrote: »

Alright. My master writ drop rate (including equipment writs) has increased post-HoTR. So using your argument, my experience proves that actually, ZOS increased writ drop rates. Or hey, RNG.

Or, you know, you completing any purple motifs. Or completed any crafting achievements. Or, if you're including provisioning writs, got any new purple or gold recipes.
Because, that should factor in your increases if it is correctly coded as ZOS said it should. (With no way to decrease your drop rate except writ completion, which we are all assuming is a constant, decreases don't have any extras to factor in.)

What they're mainly saying is that ZOS has a history of messing things up and/or changing their mechanics despite saying otherwise, and that they're seeing something that may be an issue, and are trying to get it cleared up (whether they fix it, or get an official "working as intended").

When it comes to discussing the drop rates, you're the one saying definitive words like "must be" and "proves". The people you quote are saying "sometimes", "could be", and "I think". The closest thing to a definitive was "far more likely", and that still acknowledges that might not be a problem.

RNG does factor in, but since we don't know the odds, we can only go by (A)length of time, and (B)how the drop rate changed.
So, f047ys3v3n is saying that over the last 3 months, his average dropped to nearly 1/3 of his old average over the last three months. It's possible for it to be RNG, but it could still be a red flag. Especially, if he completed any purple motif--if it is a long RNG rut, then the rut is so bad that it's also offsetting any increases he's done.

I agree that it is too soon to judge any change in drop rates.

But what amazes me is that when people complain about a "drop" in drop-rates I'm left thinking "Call that a drop? RNG has never been that kind to me!", because I've never had it that good since master writs first started.