Am I calculating this correctly? 0.242% drop rate on the sword I want and I need two.... FIX RNG PLZ

Dragonking06

I get that it's frustrating to not get a piece of gear you want, in the trait and set you want. They did make it a little better with the BoP loot being tradable between the group you ran the content with for a while after, meaning there's at least 3 other chances someone might have found the piece you want... Provided they're also not looking for it...

Not the best or what you probably wanted to hear, I know... But at least it's better than it was...

Good luck in your hunt.

aLi3nZ

If you are pc na I can help farm with you. I give you sharpened sword and you give me sharpened staffs. I am curuious though how do you prox bsw with 2x swords? I also already have 2x sharpened 1 handed swords and still no staff after maybe 70 chests

KerinKor

Vaoh wrote: »

*414 possible drops in IC Dungeon trophy chests! This gives me a 0.242% chance at looting the item I want. I also need two of them....*

You're making a HUGE assumption .. you're assuming a UNIFORM distribution of drop probability over the entire set of possible drops and that is something you CANNOT KNOW because ZOS don't state it and nothing in-game provides any evidence one way or the other.

Thus your thesis is based on a totally flawed assumption, and thus fails.

lardvader

mateoz wrote: »

I think your math are way off.

Unless proven wrong otherwise I Don't think the weapons and jewelry can actually drop from that key fragments treasure chest at all.
You cannot get nirn items either.
so its 8 traits * 8 armor * 3 sets = 192 with 0% chances of getting a sword.

I think you might get sword from the last boss and Chests inside the dungeon (regular ones)

I can confirm they drop from the vault chest - haven't got sharp sword but it dropped a defending one. Have also got 2 rings. However for jewelry it seems to favour Essence Thief and Imperium - I have almost 3 sets of those....

MLGProPlayer

Welcome to ESO, from Korean developer Zenimax Online Studios.

Asardes

Final dungeon boss has a chance to drop a weapon, shield, or piece of jewelry from the dungeon:
- there are 11 types of weapons that can drop with 8 traits
- there is the shield which can drop with 8 traits
- there is 2 types of jewelry that will always drop with the same trait
- there are 3 sets in each dungeon that contain weapons and jewelry
So (11*8+1*8+2)*3=98*3=294 one chance in 294 or 0.340136% chance to get that sharp sword from a particular set, in this case SPC, drop from boss.

But in practice the chance is lowered by the fact that the boss usually has a named drop from one of the sets that has a significant probability, most likely around ~10%. In this case is a powered lightning staff called Molag Kena's Touch. So we're probably looking at ~0.3% drop chance from the end boss.

Assuming the drop chance for the named item is 10%, in order to have a 50/50 chance to get one of the SPC swords you will have to kill Molag Kena 230 times.

The chests from inside the dungeons can drop any weapon, jewelry or armor piece from any of the sets, as well as non-set items. The harder the lock, the higher the chance for the former. Assuming the chance is equal for all items, the chance of getting a SPC sharp sword from one of those is 1 in 462 because (12*8+2+7*8)*3=462. So 0.21645% of getting a sharp SPC sword from an advanced or master locked chest, and much lower for others.

From my experience the chests unlocked by key fragments have a skewed loot distribution, with much higher drop rates for jewelry. I opened a lot in VICP in order to get SM weapons, but have not had such luck. I sold them off on guild stores and crafted Julianos sharp staves. The probability was simply too low for getting such weapons, exactly how it is for SPC.

I had the powered SPC restoration staff and a sharpened lightning one drop from chest in VWGT, but before that I had contemplated the possibility of crafting Julianos restoration and destruction staves as well.

As a rule I never plan my builds exclusively on dropped gear, but plan them on what I have, and simply craft around them. There is probably a 1-2% drop in DPS, but that's not noticeable in real scenarios, and certainly not worth hundreds of hours of farming the same content for a very slim chance of getting the wanted item.

Asardes

As someone has said before, the problem is not the RNG itself, but that just most traits on weapons and armor are much worse than one of them. Generally, if it's not divines or sharpened it's just decon trash. And it hasn't always been like this. ZoS has made a deliberate change when it redesigned the traits. At the same time the trait table has been expanded for other items, making getting an useful one far less likely. This was lazy and haphazard, and there's no doubt in my mind it has been done precisely to make people grind the same content longer, so they don't feel the need to play new content to the same extent. They rolled back a little in One Tamriel, when they at least made drops guaranteed and a little more predictable, and added the unique items dropped by bosses to the sets. But yet some of those drops still make no sense. Many named items don't fit their sets' practical usage, even if the claim was made that loot now "drops intelligently".

NordSwordnBoard

@Vaoh I hear you. I'm dw as sorc, and got one lich sharp sword traded to me. I got a powered one on my own. I'm still looking for a bsw sword. DW allows sorcs some build creativity, at obvious cost.

I can deal with my bsw jerkin being an ok trait in lieu of wearing a dress. Armor traits are a much smaller percentage per piece regarding effectiveness.

Sharpened is so far above all other traits for weapons for dps that you either use it or spend your whole build trying to make up for that 5k penetration. Or lose the damage, or craft swords.

It's discouraging because I want to play the game to use this stuff, not search for it. If I spend more time searching for an item than using it, that's discouraging me to even play at all.

mb10

Making the items tradable will help. I have a sharpened spc sword in bank doing absolutely nothing...

Lythandra

Your post is a good example why I do not bother to farm for items. Its just horrible odds in this game. Crafted items are good enough for me.

AlnilamE

static_recharge wrote: »

I honestly think they need a true token system. Not one that still makes you open a RNG box. One where after so many tokens are obtained you can go to a vendor and outright buy the item you want.

If the number of tokens required is on the high side (but not ridiculous) then the content still has repeat value and people can get lucky and get their item early. However the majority of people will still be able to save up and get the item they are after if RNG isn't kind to them. This will still give the sense of an achievable goal while keeping content relevant.

They would have to revert the trophies back to distinct trophies for the dungeons then. Because right now, you can grind tokens in IC to open the vaults in the dungeons, while getting TV to boot.

Danksta

aLi3nZ wrote: »

If you are pc na I can help farm with you. I give you sharpened sword and you give me sharpened staffs. I am curuious though how do you prox bsw with 2x swords? I also already have 2x sharpened 1 handed swords and still no staff after maybe 70 chests

SPC, not BSW. And you can proc BSW with any fire damage ability, so pretty much anything for a DK. Templars also have at least one fire damage ability in vampire's bane, not sure if others. You can also have a fire staff on other bar and use blockade of fire and switch bars to get it to proc.

Vaoh

Asardes wrote: »

Final dungeon boss has a chance to drop a weapon, shield, or piece of jewelry from the dungeon:
- there are 11 types of weapons that can drop with 8 traits
- there is the shield which can drop with 8 traits
- there is 2 types of jewelry that will always drop with the same trait
- there are 3 sets in each dungeon that contain weapons and jewelry
So (11*8+1*8+2)*3=98*3=294 one chance in 294 or 0.340136% chance to get that sharp sword from a particular set, in this case SPC, drop from boss.

But in practice the chance is lowered by the fact that the boss usually has a named drop from one of the sets that has a significant probability, most likely around ~10%. In this case is a powered lightning staff called Molag Kena's Touch. So we're probably looking at ~0.3% drop chance from the end boss.

Assuming the drop chance for the named item is 10%, in order to have a 50/50 chance to get one of the SPC swords you will have to kill Molag Kena 230 times.

The chests from inside the dungeons can drop any weapon, jewelry or armor piece from any of the sets, as well as non-set items. The harder the lock, the higher the chance for the former. Assuming the chance is equal for all items, the chance of getting a SPC sharp sword from one of those is 1 in 462 because (12*8+2+7*8)*3=462. So 0.21645% of getting a sharp SPC sword from an advanced or master locked chest, and much lower for others.

From my experience the chests unlocked by key fragments have a skewed loot distribution, with much higher drop rates for jewelry. I opened a lot in VICP in order to get SM weapons, but have not had such luck. I sold them off on guild stores and crafted Julianos sharp staves. The probability was simply too low for getting such weapons, exactly how it is for SPC.

I had the powered SPC restoration staff and a sharpened lightning one drop from chest in VWGT, but before that I had contemplated the possibility of crafting Julianos restoration and destruction staves as well.

As a rule I never plan my builds exclusively on dropped gear, but plan them on what I have, and simply craft around them. There is probably a 1-2% drop in DPS, but that's not noticeable in real scenarios, and certainly not worth hundreds of hours of farming the same content for a very slim chance of getting the wanted item.

I just thought about those named drops today too. Definitely lowers the drop chance of my preferred weapons even more.

The problem is that the damage difference is MUCH larger that 1-2% when comparing Sharpened to other traits. Even more damage loss to others. This is for PvP so Sharpened is even more important. Without Sharpened I may as well quit the build as it will pointless with so much damage loss.

In reality I have already given up on this build though. I could never acquire two Sharpened SPC swords.

Asardes

I was referring to the difference between a good crafted set with sharpened weapons and an ideal dropped set with sharpened weapons. The latter may be better on paper, but unless you can get that sharpened weapon to drop, the DPS will be lower than the crafted set.

I think I suspect what your build is. Probably a Templar using the healing from jabs, or a Sorcerer using the power surge heals to self buff. You want SPC swords because you have heavy armor and probably a monster set on the other slots. I have experimented with a SPC self-buffed build in PvE, but with staves on both bars - I usually jab and repent my way trough dungeons on my healer, using mostly HoTs in the background - and it's pretty reliable and the uptime is really good, even if the spell damage bonus is halved compared to other sets. However, the probability of a sword drop is so small that I don't think a build using 2 of them is really viable.

Vaoh

Asardes wrote: »

I was referring to the difference between a good crafted set with sharpened weapons and an ideal dropped set with sharpened weapons. The latter may be better on paper, but unless you can get that sharpened weapon to drop, the DPS will be lower than the crafted set.

I think I suspect what your build is. Probably a Templar using the healing from jabs, or a Sorcerer using the power surge heals to self buff. You want SPC swords because you have heavy armor and probably a monster set on the other slots. I have experimented with a SPC self-buffed build in PvE, but with staves on both bars - I usually jab and repent my way trough dungeons on my healer, using mostly HoTs in the background - and it's pretty reliable and the uptime is really good, even if the spell damage bonus is halved compared to other sets. However, the probability of a sword drop is so small that I don't think a build using 2 of them is really viable.

I'm a solo Mag Sorc player. In PvP I run DW/Resto and light armor. Not exactly what you'd expect at all but that's what makes me very strong yet still unique.

I was really excited when I theorycrafted my final build for DW Mag Sorc but it seems my chances of gathering the gear is somewhere around 0%. Oh well.....

Biro123

I've learned to only do builds that are either based on sharpened weapons I happen to already have - include crafted weapons.
I just can't face the grind otherwise.

Digiman

Nestor wrote: »

This is why I never hang my build on a specific item that is only obtained through drops.

Or, another way of looking it, I don't sweat the Traits. The Set Bonuses are much more important to me. I mean, if the trait on a item or two is going to make or break your build, is it all that good a build in the first place? I ran a Molga Kena Shoulder in Reinforced Medium on my Caster for a months until I got a LA one (this was before it was easier to get Molag Kena). For the record I don't have the Undaunted passive that makes it better to wear a piece of Medium either, and I had to give up one heavy to boot.

I am not dissing you, it's just lots of people have pointed this out before, and ZOS is not going to move on the issue. So, all you can really do is move forward given what you have to work with, not what you want to work with.

I agree that its kinda stupid but min/maxing is usually a heart of an MMO and the ESO loot system is really cluttered with useless drops that need to be purged from the loot tables.

Its the reason why they added NPC's that sell this stuff for tokens. They know its a terrible system.

Blacksmoke

If you want something, work for it!

sebban

Named drops would be fine if they were actually any good, but no named drop I know of has the item in a proper trait (or even proper set). I mean, there are destruction staves in healing sets, healing staves in DPS sets, 2H weapons in tanking sets, etc. It's completely out of touch with how the game actually works.

Named drops should be sought after, not decon trash.

Vaoh

Blacksmoke wrote: »

If you want something, work for it!

HAH! We're talking about ESO rng. good one

Asardes

Destruction staves in healing sets actually do make sense. Because a healer would be usually running resto on front bar and destro on back bar for the elemental drain. I had incredible good luck getting SPC powered resto, sharpened lightning staves as well as a named sharpened inferno (The Unbroken, dropped by Planar Inhibitor). Otherwise I would have crafted Julianos and just moved on. I'm running 5 Julianos 5 SPC 1 Kena ATM and benefit from 65% spell critical and 2.65K spell damage self buffed on top of about 42.5K magicka pool.

Oddly enough this setup may also become viable for trials next patch, since IM is not a must for healer anymore, because the minor vulnerability now comes as an added effect to concussed, available from blockade of lightning. I will actually change my morph from repentance to radiant aura to get the minor magicka steal bonus, since stamina trial DDs, which is now an endangered species will finally become extinct. I will slot blockade of lightning for minor vulnerability instead of elemental drain which is now redundant, as the debuff is already supplied by the tank by using pierce armor and the recovery bonus by radiant aura.

GilGalad

As far as I know the dropchance is even worse, since the dropchances are approx 50% for any jewelry and 50% for any weapon.
Then we have 12 weapons plus shield: Bow, resto, 3 destro, 4 one hand, 3 two hand. Each of them comes in 8 traits, and 3 different sets, therefore we have 3x8x13=312 possible weapon drops.
So the final drop chance is given by:
P*1/312

Where P is the chance for any weapon instead of jewelry. Im the case of 50% jewelry and 50% weapon you get a nice 1/624 chance to get your weapon. Even if the whole group would trade to you, there is approx a 45% chance to have the weapon after 100 runs.

For more details check the math of RNG thread in my signature (the MSA graphs don't include the update 13 chances yet).