General vMSA loot question

NinthPrince64

I know that there are 8 x 12 = 96 possible outcomes, so if I was looking for a particular weapon/trait combination I have a 1/96 chance of getting it.

What I am interested in knowing, though, is what fraction of the 96 outcomes would be considered good generally? In other words, pretend I had a diversity of maxed characters and I am going through vMSA just hoping to get something that would be good for one of my toons, without regard to which particular toon. What are the odds that I get something useful in that case?

Thanks.

EDIT: For the sake of this question I am assuming each outcome is equally likely. Not sure if that is the case, but for the purposes of answering my question, let's assume that it is. Thx.

code65536

First, the outcomes are not equally likely.

You get a 1/6 chance for weapon class: destro, resto, DW, 2H, 1HS, bow

Then, for the weapons that have subtypes, you get a roll for that.

This means that you get a 1/6 chance at a resto, and a 1/6 chance at any destro, but only a 1/18 chance at a specific destro type (e.g., fire staff).

• Resto: Decisive, Precise, or Powered: (1/6)(3/8) = 3/48 chance at getting a good resto
• Destro: Sharp; Fire or Lightning: (1/6)(2/3)(1/8) = 1/72 chance at getting a good destro
• DW: Sharp; 1x Axe + 1x Dagger is ideal: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good DW
• 2H: Sharp; Maul is probably best, but all 3 are fine: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good 2H
• Bow: Sharp; (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good bow
• 1HS: LOL, 0

So you have a 5/36 = 13.9% chance at getting a good BiS weapon of some sort.

NinthPrince64

code65536 wrote: »

First, the outcomes are not equally likely.

You get a 1/6 chance for weapon class: destro, resto, DW, 2H, 1HS, bow

Then, for the weapons that have subtypes, you get a roll for that.

This means that you get a 1/6 chance at a resto, and a 1/6 chance at any destro, but only a 1/18 chance at a specific destro type (e.g., fire staff).

• Resto: Decisive, Precise, or Powered: (1/6)(3/8) = 3/48 chance at getting a good resto
• Destro: Sharp; Fire or Lightning: (1/6)(2/3)(1/8) = 1/72 chance at getting a good destro
• DW: Sharp; 1x Axe + 1x Dagger is ideal: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good DW
• 2H: Sharp; Maul is probably best, but all 3 are fine: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good 2H
• Bow: Sharp; (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good bow
• 1HS: LOL, 0

So you have a 5/36 = 13.9% chance at getting a good BiS weapon of some sort.

Okay, great. Thanks you very much for your time. At least I know that if I complete 10 times there is only about a 22% chance I won't get a single useful item. If I am bold and assume I complete 25 times, the probability is only about a 2.4% chance I won't get anything useful.

NinthPrince64

code65536 wrote: »

First, the outcomes are not equally likely.

You get a 1/6 chance for weapon class: destro, resto, DW, 2H, 1HS, bow

Then, for the weapons that have subtypes, you get a roll for that.

This means that you get a 1/6 chance at a resto, and a 1/6 chance at any destro, but only a 1/18 chance at a specific destro type (e.g., fire staff).

• Resto: Decisive, Precise, or Powered: (1/6)(3/8) = 3/48 chance at getting a good resto
• Destro: Sharp; Fire or Lightning: (1/6)(2/3)(1/8) = 1/72 chance at getting a good destro
• DW: Sharp; 1x Axe + 1x Dagger is ideal: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good DW
• 2H: Sharp; Maul is probably best, but all 3 are fine: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good 2H
• Bow: Sharp; (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good bow
• 1HS: LOL, 0

So you have a 5/36 = 13.9% chance at getting a good BiS weapon of some sort.

If I understand the new loot table correctly, then it would seem that the probability of getting a good item has gone DOWN.

Every item has a 1/12 chance of dropping. Only 9 items are BiS, however. Of those 9 items, 8 have only one good trait. 1 of the 9 items (the resto staff) has 3 good traits.

So, it seems like the probability of getting a good item is now: 8(1/12)(1/8) + 1(1/12)(3/8) = 11/96 = 11.46%. That is a bit of a difference from 13.9%.

I guess the tradeoff is that the probability for certain weapons has gone up, but still, it doesn't seem like making good Maelstrom weapons HARDER to get, generally, is a step in the right direction.

Reorx_Holybeard

NinthPrince64 wrote: »

code65536 wrote: »

First, the outcomes are not equally likely.

You get a 1/6 chance for weapon class: destro, resto, DW, 2H, 1HS, bow

Then, for the weapons that have subtypes, you get a roll for that.

This means that you get a 1/6 chance at a resto, and a 1/6 chance at any destro, but only a 1/18 chance at a specific destro type (e.g., fire staff).

• Resto: Decisive, Precise, or Powered: (1/6)(3/8) = 3/48 chance at getting a good resto
• Destro: Sharp; Fire or Lightning: (1/6)(2/3)(1/8) = 1/72 chance at getting a good destro
• DW: Sharp; 1x Axe + 1x Dagger is ideal: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good DW
• 2H: Sharp; Maul is probably best, but all 3 are fine: (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good 2H
• Bow: Sharp; (1/6)(1/8) = 1/48 chance at getting a good bow
• 1HS: LOL, 0

So you have a 5/36 = 13.9% chance at getting a good BiS weapon of some sort.

If I understand the new loot table correctly, then it would seem that the probability of getting a good item has gone DOWN.

Every item has a 1/12 chance of dropping. Only 9 items are BiS, however. Of those 9 items, 8 have only one good trait. 1 of the 9 items (the resto staff) has 3 good traits.

So, it seems like the probability of getting a good item is now: 8(1/12)(1/8) + 1(1/12)(3/8) = 11/96 = 11.46%. That is a bit of a difference from 13.9%.

I guess the tradeoff is that the probability for certain weapons has gone up, but still, it doesn't seem like making good Maelstrom weapons HARDER to get, generally, is a step in the right direction.

Did you include the change that DW weapons now come in pairs. I think this would increase the chance to get a good weapon to closer to 13.5% using your numbers. Still a decrease but a very small one.

NinthPrince64

@Reorx_Holybeard, that's a good point. I missed that.

I think the interpretation of the number changes slightly. It is no longer a probability of getting a good weapon (where you always received just one weapon), but more like an expected payoff. In other words, you expect to receive 13/96ths (.135) of a good weapon each time you clear. Before you expected to get 5/36ths (.139) of a good weapon each time you cleared.

I guess the cleverness in the change is the change in the mix of expected weapon payoff. Expected payoff for DW has doubled, I think (probability of getting a DW unchanged, but payoff doubled). The big "losers", it seems would be bow and resto staff because their payoffs remain the same, but their probability has been cut in half.

Now, whether or not the change in the mix of expected payoff benefits the overall population of players depends on the value of each BiS weapon. If we assume that each BiS is equally valuable/useful then the change in the loot table is largely a wash. That may be a dubious assumption, however.

Without really motivating it, I suspect the change in the loot table is largely a wash. One other thing that might be worth thinking about, I don't know if the changes to the ice staff would make it a valuable drop (@code65536 noted above that they are currently not good), but if they do, and assuming one good trait, then the expected payoff would go up to 14/96ths (.146) of a good weapon.

Still, overall, I think this is not the wholesale change some people were looking for.

NinthPrince64

My ultimate goal is to get 100 clears and then see where I stand. In the meantime, I recently got to 25 clears and here are my observations to date.

1) using @code65536 definition of good drops (see above) the probability of a good drop is 13.9%. I have gotten 3 good drops (12%), so my experience is consistent with expectations.

2) if you go into vMSA looking for one specific item, you are really setting yourself up for heartache. I have several different character types so all of my drops have been good for me.

3) I wish there was something for tanks. I don't have a functioning tank at this point so this isn't really a big deal for me, but it would be nice.

4) I wish there were better drops at the end of Stages 1 - 8. Something of the caliber of VO/IA/Moondancer. Even something that was only "niche-useful" would be appreciated.

None of these things are deal breakers for me, though. I am still at the point where I enjoy the content (Stage 7 aside). 25 down, 75 to go!

Izaki

You have more chances to get a destro this patch I'm pretty sure.

NinthPrince64

There was one other thing that, while obvious on its face, I hadn't really thought about until I had a few runs under my belt. As you start getting good drops, the probability of getting good drops that are also useful (i.e., not redundant) goes down. Given my good drops to date, I have only a 1/16 (6.25%) chance of getting a good drop. The good news is, however, that while the expected payoffs have gone down, so have the costs. The content is so much easier now than it once was. Besides, like I said, I am still in that phase where I enjoy the content.