[ANSWERED] vMSA Double Loot - Trying to Prove that the RNJesus is skewed

covenant_merchant

Before the vMSA double loot, I had done about two hundred runs of vMSA. 203 to be exact (yes, I count them). I'm not very good at it, my best personal score is about 524k, which hasn't been enough for the weekly since DB hit, and it takes me roughly 1 hour to get it done on a magicka sorc.
Of these two hundred runs, I have never gotten an Inferno staff, not even a bad trait, and so I gave up after awhile.
With this double loot event, I've decided to give vMSA another shot and farm the hell out of it.

People say that the chances to drop BiS items and crap are equivalent. I am willing to give ZOS and their "distribution tables" a chance and believe very hard, while posting screenshots of the loot I get as I farm it.

Keep in mind that good traits do make a difference for both PvE and PvP. While in PvE, a precise staff can do if you're in a really awesome group and the boss is debuffed with every conceivable debuff there is, Sharpened is still BiS. As for PvP, any trait other than Sharpened is crap, given all heavy armor users.

At any rate, here goes nothing. Will update with every run, and believe me, I have a lot of time on my hands right now.

FIRST RUN:
(First Inferno staff ever, and complete garbage).


SECOND RUN:

ostrapz

3 charged lul, i did a run before work, 1 nirnhoned mace and interestingly enuff 1 charged resto.. hope there isn't just a ton of charged *** stacked in these chests

Paneross

This crap is the reason I quit doing VMA. Too time consuming to get horrible rewards.

covenant_merchant

Update : THIRD RUN





FOURTH RUN





In other terms, still crap.

Lukums1

EDIT: First run. ( during event )



sharpen/precise

Rage was real on twitch I tell ya LOL

covenant_merchant

@Lukums1 OMG

Lukums1

kasa-obake wrote: »

@Lukums1 OMG

I no... if I could I would.

Had like 17 people lose their minds. lol

Artis

kasa-obake wrote: »

People say that the chances to drop BiS items and crap are equivalent. While I wish it were true, I'll just post screenshots of the loot I get as I farm it. Keep in mind that good traits do make a difference for both PvE and PvP. While in PvE, a precise staff can do if you're in a really awesome group and the boss is debuffed with every conceivable debuff there is, Sharpened is still BiS. As for PvP, any trait other than Sharpened is crap, given all heavy armor users.

Beeeeasss. BS. It's players who say what's "crap" and what's not. If you don't like some traits or some weapon types - it's your personal sexual problem. What people say is that the chances to drop every item-trait combination are equivalent.

And so far your "data" doesn't prove it wrong. You got 4 different item-trait combos, so yes so far it appears that people are right. But then again - insufficient data. Maybe players should unite and compare their loot. Or better someone should make an addon that saves the vMA loot of everyone who installed it (and maybe even dynamically calculates the percentage of a certain trait-item combo kinda like MM does with the price).
p.s. after update - still combos are different.

covenant_merchant

Artis wrote: »

kasa-obake wrote: »

People say that the chances to drop BiS items and crap are equivalent. While I wish it were true, I'll just post screenshots of the loot I get as I farm it. Keep in mind that good traits do make a difference for both PvE and PvP. While in PvE, a precise staff can do if you're in a really awesome group and the boss is debuffed with every conceivable debuff there is, Sharpened is still BiS. As for PvP, any trait other than Sharpened is crap, given all heavy armor users.

Beeeeasss. BS. It's players who say what's "crap" and what's not. If you don't like some traits or some weapon types - it's your personal sexual problem. What people say is that the chances to drop every item-trait combination are equivalent.

And so far your "data" doesn't prove it wrong. You got 4 different item-trait combos, so yes so far it appears that people are right. But then again - insufficient data. Maybe players should unite and compare their loot. Or better someone should make an addon that saves the vMA loot of everyone who installed it (and maybe even dynamically calculates the percentage of a certain trait-item combo kinda like MM does with the price).
p.s. after update - still combos are different.

Mhhh a sample of 4 doesn't prove anything apart from potential to rage, true. Which is why I plan on updating it with every run. As for traits, all traits are equal, but some traits are more equal than others, paraphrasing Orwell.
Empirically, Sharpened is the best for PvE end-game, unless, as I said previously, the boss is fully debuffed. Then Precise is good.
For PvP, Sharpened is Best in Slot. Crit doesn't mean much, given that most players wear impen, and Defending, while good for tanking I suppose, makes you loose a lot of damage. There's a reason why Spriggan and Spinner are so popular at the moment; Sharpened is way too good to pass up.

As far as restoration staves are concerned, Precise > Powered. But then again, vMSA restoration staves are only marginally useful on DPS characters. Healers would prefer vDSA staves for a more interesting bonus, or aether/spell power cure staves with 1 Kena pauldron since more spell damage = more heals.

I could go on and on, but some traits are just inferior and overall useless. Charged and Powered on destro staves? It's garbage

covenant_merchant

Update :

FIFTH RUN




SIXTH RUN




Still complete garbage...

Alanar

I've tracked 48 VMA drops, and I can confirm that the 12 weapons do not drop evenly (p < 0.02). My sample is most consistent with each TYPE of weapon having a 1/6 chance, so dagger/axe share, mace/sword share, all three 2H weapons share, and all three destruction staves share, while bows and restoration staves each have their own chance. So your chances of getting a specific weapon are:

Bow - 1/6
Restoration Staff - 1/6

Dagger - 1/12
Sword - 1/12
Mace - 1/12
Axe - 1/12

Greatsword - 1/18
Battle Axe - 1/18
Maul - 1/18
Lightning Staff - 1/18
Frost Staff - 1/18
Fire Staff - 1/18

So if you're hunting a sharpened fire staff, you have a 1/18 chance of getting a fire staff at all, and a 1/8 chance of getting sharpened, for a total chance of 1/144 on each drop. Because of how RNG works, that means after 100 runs, you have only a 50/50 chance at having gotten any particular 2H or destruction staff.

covenant_merchant

@Alanar Thanks for posting this. I mean it's really depressing but nonetheless, thank you for your opinion. @ZOS_RichLambert why? Why would you do such a thing, and why even bother with destro powered/charged staves? While your attempt at making all traits viable was welcome, they are still crap compared to sharpened. Please consider bringing back the old vMSA drops - sharpened - precise - defending. Nobody wants your "new improved" traits, they're completely useless.

Update : SEVENTH RUN




This last run took ages since I forgot to equip Ilambris x2. Meaning that I had only 5 armor pieces and actually did the arena until Stage 9 inb4 realizing my mistake. (All the while raging about lack of damage / regen). At any rate, it is 5am. I am tired and mad and once again losing faith in this game and the goodwill and benevolence of @ZOS_RichLambert .

Lukums1

kasa-obake wrote: »

@Alanar Thanks for posting this. I mean it's really depressing but nonetheless, thank you for your opinion. @ZOS_RichLambert why? Why would you do such a thing, and why even bother with destro powered/charged staves? While your attempt at making all traits viable was welcome, they are still crap compared to sharpened. Please consider bringing back the old vMSA drops - sharpened - precise - defending. Nobody wants your "new improved" traits, they're completely useless.

Update : SEVENTH RUN




This last run took ages since I forgot to equip Ilambris x2. Meaning that I had only 5 armor pieces and actually did the arena until Stage 9 inb4 realizing my mistake. (All the while raging about lack of damage / regen). At any rate, it is 5am. I am tired and mad and once again losing faith in this game and the goodwill and benevolence of @ZOS_RichLambert .

That's nothing imagine me streaming last night DURING THE WORST RUN OF MY LIFE ON MY SORC.

Took me an hour and 10 deaths... then... realized something.

Because I was healing trials an hour before hand, I had 100 into blessed!!! NO ELEMENTAL DAMAGE in blue tree GG.

covenant_merchant

@Lukums1 ahaha rekt.
Yeah I used to keep my CP in a PvP fashion. 1.5k crit resist was worth it in vMSA.
But this time, I really took my arena farm very seriously. Switched CP, morphs of skills, upgraded my gear.. and all that to do the arena with 3 light - 1 medium - 1 heavy piece only, and *** on TS about lack of sustain.

Masel

I did 8 runs yesterday (4 of which were 4 chars that I played to stage 9 prior to event to directly get loot) and I got 6 shield and board(two of those double drops!), 2 resto staffs (which is in line with the above calculation), 2 ice staffs, a decisive dagger, a precise axe(only worthwhile one), a charged maul, 2 powered bows and a nirnhoned lightning staff. Yeah, 6 hours well spent.

nordsavage

We already know the table is skewed and so does ZOS. It is just the way it is and they will not change it. Just be glad drops are 100% chance now and double that for a few weeks. It is time to accept the fact that you are gonna have 50+ resto staffs before your vMA career is over.

covenant_merchant

Update : EIGHT RUN

Integral1900

I'm so glad I just did normal once, hated it and never went back, the thought of slogging through vet for that lot would made my blood boil

Qbiken

Since when did we get double loot in maelstrom?? Have I missed something?

covenant_merchant

@Qbiken from the 7th to 21st for the Orsinium anniversary. Every node, chest, loot in Wrothgar is doubled, including vMSA chests. Though given Zos' love for stupid, useless traits, it mostly serves as a rage fuel than anything else.

covenant_merchant

Update : NINTH RUN

Kr3do

If you want just join the TS and i can play the sad violin sound for you

covenant_merchant

@Kr3do *** off bae. I'm in Moscow atm, can't go TS at any rate.

covenant_merchant

Update : TENTH RUN






Current mood:

DRXHarbinger

Keep going. I've done 14 runs today in total. Got both bis staves on the last one. Sharp inferno and lit staff. Keep at it.

Not to get you to try this. But I was doing it on my Sorc over and over and got nothing but trash... took my DK in and after a long struggle boom they both dropped. I do belive the more you run it the worse the drops get. I had that before when farming it all I got winterborn helms over and over. Left it 48hrs and a sharp dagger dropped.

Try another toon out of curiosity.

Masel

I'm doing it alternating on three chars, and all get utter crap, so char switching doesn't help there...

covenant_merchant

@DRXHarbinger I've followed your advice and went on my EP char. And guess what ?

11th RUN:




So far, out of 22 loots, I've had 1 sharpened trait dropped. And it was on the only freaking item that is useless - restoration staff. This sample is still probably quite small, but goddamit @ZOS_JessicaFolsom @ZOS_RichLambert can you please make a statement about the trait drop? Just so I have something to hold you up on.

Better even, would it be possible to explain the reasoning behind "Powered" Destruction (aka offensive) staves.. I'm really curious. I get that you're hyped about hybrid builds and what not, but this doesn't even fit a hybrid. It fits nothing, it's superfluous, unnecessary and unwanted, and it ruins the gaming experience for a lot of players.

covenant_merchant

Update: 12th RUN

covenant_merchant

Update : 13th RUN





Verdict:

Eleusian

Loot pool is so big and diluted. Could do 500 runs and get unlucky and not get wanted drop. ZOS needs to drop the 9 traits system if the only plan to have 1 so much better than the others. Make 3-4 really viable.

covenant_merchant

Update: 14th RUN






15th RUN