We brought it down on ourselves!
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eisberg✭✭✭frosth.darkomenb16_ESO wrote: »
You really don't see the full picture.
Every single mmorpg that did a switch is doing worse revenue wise after the switch than before. All it gets is a second surge in popularity that lasts a few months, then it's over. Even swtor is not making it and losing revenue despite using all the tricks in the book.
There will always be more people that want stuff for free, but they don't matter since those people don't pay. It's always been like that and the market has not changed.
What has changed, however, is that investors backing up publishers/studios have understood they could have a faster ROI by using that second locust surge that occur at the switch. They can then moving on to other projects and leave the games to interns charged to fill the cash shop.
The fact there still are many people subscribing at the launch of every single game is a proof that people are still willing to pay a subscription, just that games don't let them. Either by not being worth it, or by switching ot another model.
Games are not competing over a limited pool of "subscribers". Each game suposedly have a combination of unique selling proposition that puts it in its own niche.
As an illustration, for ESO, it is the ES lore, the solo friendliness, it's active combat, AvA, not having a cash shop and soon being alone on xbox one.
It doesn't have to compete with WoW for subscribers because people interested in WoW aren't interested in ESO and vice versa. The same for Eve Online. All three games are targeted at very different audiences.
All games can grow at the same time and they won't harm each other.
Every one of the MMOs that made the switch were losing subscribers at an alarming rate, if they didn't do the switch, they would have lost even more money, they would have kept on losing more and more subscribers, SWTOR went below 500K subscribers and still losing them before going free to play. SWTOR went Free to play in 2012, for the full year of 2013 the made the equivalant of 916K subscribers paying $15 a month (165 Million in revenue for 2013). From the last report, their revenue was down 62 Million between both Sim Franchise and SWTOR together (end of september 2014 report), even if SWTOR has half of that, that would still be equivalent of revenue of 750K+ subscribers paying $15 a month, and if all 62 million was for SWTOR alone, that is still 572K subscribers paying $15 a month equivalent of revenue. So even nearly 2 years after going free to play, they were making more money than had they stayed as Subscription only. EA CEO stated that 500K subscribers would be profitable, but nothing to write home about. They went below that 500K, and currently they are making more money then they would have if they stayed as subscription only.
ESO had to compete for subscribers, the subscriber revenue is decreasing, means that less the less people are willing to subscribe, which means they have to have something so special, so awesome, something above and beyond anything else out there to add subscribers to the shrinking subscriber market, or to take subscribers from from another subscription MMO.
The point is, you keep on stating that these MMOs are currently losing revenue, well guess what, they were losing revenue when they were subscription only as well. As far as the big ones, SWTOR, LOTRO, Tera, Aion , they are making more money now then they did just prior to announcing the switch to free to play.
History proves you wrong. With the subscription revenue decreasing at a very fast rate, and with the free to play revenue increasing even faster. With MMOs being shut down left and right prior to the Free to play being a "thing" and then now seeing an extremely less MMOs being shutdown. We have not seen any subscription MMO that has been released after WoW, that decreased in subscribers by a massive amount and then actually get even a fraction of them back later on and staying as subscription MMO. FF14 had at one time 2 million subscribers, now Squar Enix is down to a little bit below 1 million subscribers for 3 of their MMOs (FF11, 14, and Dragon Quest 10) combined. There is nothing in the post WoW history that backs up what you say about losing subscribers, working on the game and then eventually getting them back. Heck, looking at the MMOs created pre-WoW they are losing subscribers as well, even WoW. The subscriber market is shrinking, and any subscription MMO is going to have to compete for those subscribers from all the other subscription based MMOs, the subscription market is not going to grow, it is only going to get smaller.
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grimjim398✭✭✭This is just hogwash. Anybody who follows game forums knows that no matter what the developers do, some segment of the player base will spend all day whining about it. That's just how games work. Doesn't matter how it used to be, this has been status quo for a while. The change to B2P/F2P came about because of the consoles and the companies who run their networks, and ZOS had probably seen the switch in pay models a long time ago. Plenty of people on the forums predicted the change and many of us, me included, refused to listen. That is the only thing I blame myself for. I think I have maybe three days left on my subscription then I can't post any more, which is fine with me. I am playing old school single player games and forgetting all about ESO/TU.0 -
Sylvyr✭✭✭✭✭Over the past few weeks, a lot has changed in the ESO universe. Lots of people canceled their subs over the F2P announcement, others might have returned and again others like me just did nothing and gave it some thought while sun bathing.
The first question that I asked myself upon return was quite simple and still required some self critique. What did we do wrong as a community that we deserved such a harsh punishment and the knife in our all backs by ZO?
First I tried to blame us for the lack of support, but then again this forum always had some decent discussions going and a lot of people kept playing even though the client still lacks the multi core threading, while lots of features like Justice, Spellcrafting, new solo zones are still not even close to implementation.
Then again I was looking back at the reasons why so much content didn't come and I found someone responsible for it, us! How often did ZO announce something new and parts of the community had nothing better to do than trashing it.
A good example is the justice system. Right after its announcement several people created threads like "oh no, now I can die - oh no, now the merchant can die...". This caused a huge delay in the justice system, such a big delay that we still wont have the pvp part in 1.6. Its fully understandable to me that players were offended by these forum threads where others denied them their content, so they left.
Another example is the CS. It was supposed to be a fresh start, but a lot of people didn't understand this and demanded a special snowflake touch. Therefore the CS had to be rebalanced and re-tuned so that it was delayed even further while putting new players in such a big disadvantage that they would never pay a sub for outdated content.
There are many more examples to this, but the truth is we as a community have failed as much as ZO did as a company. Our constant fighting over content updates, the constant "no I don't want this guy to have this...., no I don't want pvp since I don't pvp, no I don't want group content as I don't group..., I am subbed since day one so I am special ..." made it impossible for ZO to really develop the game that they once had planned. Besides that we were very hostile towards new gamers or those who might not share the same ideology about MMOs.
If you compare this to for instance the old days at Ultima, then such hostility just didn't exist and because of this that game is still alive and kicking while ESO is just like SWTOR on its way down.
While this may sound harsh to some people at this forum, it is what it is. The inexperience of ZO in regards of MMO design and our own entitlement to have more than everyone else, to be more important than the other gamer ruined ESO so that we all, the gamers, but also the Devs have to touch our own noses here.
We brought this down on ourselves guys, learn from it and be more kind to others in your next MMO. Accept that not all content might be for you, accept that there are group and solo gamers, just like there are pve and pvp players.
Don't be so selfish and only think about your own good, think about the others too because this is what a healthy community does.
Cheers!
@Audigy
To a large extent you are right, community has been bashing the hell out of the devs and ZOS. Harsh, yeah, for sure. Too harsh? Maybe but a lot of it can be understandable.
Also agree that people need to not come at the game like it was made just for them, having a broad understanding of the game and what players do and enjoy in it and respecting that would be healthy.
Regarding some other poitns though,
There is a big difference between quantity and quality. They can deliver all the cool content they can but if it's poor quality it's going to get criticized. Ex: "large scale AvAvA battles" is going to incite a lot of expectation, and if they fall SUBSTANTIALLY short and expectations aren't met then that discord will create upset customers. You can call it entitlement all you want and I'm sure there are members of the community with an entitlement attitude but it seems more reasonable to say people are highly disappointed because reasonable expectations (and ones that were fed to us, not made up by us) fell way short.
I agree with you that patience can be in a short supply, generally. However, if you want to build a community that is patient and understanding all flowers and smiles, you need to face the reality that there is only so much disappointment, setbacks, and work that people are willing to take before getting upset.
I agree with you that people gripe too much about little things. Unfortunately a lot of the issues have been far from trivial.
Yes 1.6 is a huge re-tooling of the game, and IMHO much needed. And I am personally willing to give Zo$ that little extra time before throwing in the towel. But people (that have stayed) have endured months and months of frustration and don't view this as a "refreshing" change but a complete blow-up. And that is primarily likely because their track record of releasing new and cool content has been accompanied with tons of issues over and over again.
Your post reminds me of someone that keeps saying that it's their fault that their boy/girlfriend keeps cheating on them and keeps taking them back. Some would call that "forgiving" and some would call that "chump". And I'm not saying either is right or wrong and arguments can be made for both, but the point i'm trying to make is: understand and expect why people are upset even if you are a all smiles peace love can't we all just get along type person, and don't invalidate a whole group of people based on your centric perspective.
Also, this notion that the community has scared away new players is absurd. If a player can't tell the difference as to what is and isn't fun for them to play this game.... I dunno. I'd like to think that individuals can figure that one out on their own.
Sorry, I'm just really sick of the PCness of our generation. Can't say anything negative it's "unhealthy", have to put on a smile and think positive all the time. Dude, that's like suppressing half of ourselves, if I did that I'd go nuts. That's why all the quiet people wind up being school shooters (ok that was a generalization for sure but you know what I mean).
There's absolutely nothing wrong about laying things on the table, good or bad. Yeah sometimes it can get harsh and inappropriately take away from the essence of the issue, but on the other hand, people need to grow a shell ffs, not fall to pieces when they get called a noob or whatever.
Edited by Sylvyr on February 3, 2015 9:19PMBadge: Wall-of-Text GRANDMASTER
PvP: Patch Vs. Player
ZoSence (n.):
1) What is reasonable or comprehensive using ZoS logic. "That makes ZoSense"
2) Making zero sense. "That makes ZoSense"2 -
Islyn✭✭✭✭✭
✭minack1preub18_ESO wrote: »You don't get to speak for me, OP. If you want to blame anyone for ESO going B2P you need to look at yourself. People like you are the reason developers continue to shovel sh** in their customers' faces. Repeatedly blaming the customer for ZOS failures is just plain asinine.
I don't know what mental disorder(s) you suffer from but you definitely need to be on meds.
In before moderation! :P0 -
Islyn✭✭✭✭✭
✭Anyone who honestly thinks that they, as a customer of a business, has somehow brought down some kind of punishment on themselves for not being a good enough customer needs to seek therapy.
Hah - this is the same thing I think about that thing that rhymes with pigeon.
Edited by Islyn on February 3, 2015 9:19PM0 -
Sylvyr✭✭✭✭✭Also, your post can really be seen as just pointing to all the upset players and adding "it's your fault" (I know you say "our" but...)
How effective do you think that's gonna be?
Basically just adds more fuel to the fire. Maybe start off with "let's try to look at this from a positive perspective and also see how we can try to ease some of the tension"... or something..
Edited by Sylvyr on February 3, 2015 9:22PMBadge: Wall-of-Text GRANDMASTER
PvP: Patch Vs. Player
ZoSence (n.):
1) What is reasonable or comprehensive using ZoS logic. "That makes ZoSense"
2) Making zero sense. "That makes ZoSense"0 -
Jeremy✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Over the past few weeks, a lot has changed in the ESO universe. Lots of people canceled their subs over the F2P announcement, others might have returned and again others like me just did nothing and gave it some thought while sun bathing.
The first question that I asked myself upon return was quite simple and still required some self critique. What did we do wrong as a community that we deserved such a harsh punishment and the knife in our all backs by ZO?
First I tried to blame us for the lack of support, but then again this forum always had some decent discussions going and a lot of people kept playing even though the client still lacks the multi core threading, while lots of features like Justice, Spellcrafting, new solo zones are still not even close to implementation.
Then again I was looking back at the reasons why so much content didn't come and I found someone responsible for it, us! How often did ZO announce something new and parts of the community had nothing better to do than trashing it.
A good example is the justice system. Right after its announcement several people created threads like "oh no, now I can die - oh no, now the merchant can die...". This caused a huge delay in the justice system, such a big delay that we still wont have the pvp part in 1.6. Its fully understandable to me that players were offended by these forum threads where others denied them their content, so they left.
Another example is the CS. It was supposed to be a fresh start, but a lot of people didn't understand this and demanded a special snowflake touch. Therefore the CS had to be rebalanced and re-tuned so that it was delayed even further while putting new players in such a big disadvantage that they would never pay a sub for outdated content.
There are many more examples to this, but the truth is we as a community have failed as much as ZO did as a company. Our constant fighting over content updates, the constant "no I don't want this guy to have this...., no I don't want pvp since I don't pvp, no I don't want group content as I don't group..., I am subbed since day one so I am special ..." made it impossible for ZO to really develop the game that they once had planned. Besides that we were very hostile towards new gamers or those who might not share the same ideology about MMOs.
If you compare this to for instance the old days at Ultima, then such hostility just didn't exist and because of this that game is still alive and kicking while ESO is just like SWTOR on its way down.
While this may sound harsh to some people at this forum, it is what it is. The inexperience of ZO in regards of MMO design and our own entitlement to have more than everyone else, to be more important than the other gamer ruined ESO so that we all, the gamers, but also the Devs have to touch our own noses here.
We brought this down on ourselves guys, learn from it and be more kind to others in your next MMO. Accept that not all content might be for you, accept that there are group and solo gamers, just like there are pve and pvp players.
Don't be so selfish and only think about your own good, think about the others too because this is what a healthy community does.
Cheers!
No one mind controls "ZO". In the end they make the decisions - so they bear the responsibility. Trying to blame the community because there was a variance of opinion is scapegoating us. No one made it impossible for ZO to do anything.
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ESO had to compete for subscribers, the subscriber revenue is decreasing, means that less the less people are willing to subscribe, which means they have to have something so special, so awesome, something above and beyond anything else out there to add subscribers to the shrinking subscriber market, or to take subscribers from from another subscription MMO.
NO, just no.
That's not how any of this work.
If there is a drought, people will drink less. Is it because they are less thirsty? Or is it because there is not enough water to go around?
The pool of thristy players willing to pay a sub has not shrunk, the pool of MMOs worthy of a sub has shrunk.
However the value of an MMO worthy of a sub is actually increasing as demand is high and offer is extremely low. You either go WoW, Eve or FFXIV.
Just WoW losing quality and losing millions of subscribers has impacted the whole industry revenue figures. They lost over 2.7M players in 2013/early 2014, that's $486M less for the industry. Which is more than what the overall p2p market for PC/MMO games has lost and more than what the mmo susbcription market only has lost. So other susbcription games, aside from WoW, have grown enough to compensate and expand the market.
http://www.denofgeek.us/games/world-of-warcraft/113265/the-obvious-reason-world-of-warcraft-lost-19m-subscribers
http://wow.joystiq.com/2014/08/05/world-of-warcraft-down-to-6-8-million-subscribers/
http://www.newzoo.com/infographics/infographic-pcmmo-gaming-revenues-to-total-24-4bn-in-2014/
Help for the maths here: 2013: $8.136B 2014: $8.052B
http://www.superdataresearch.com/market-data/mmo-market/
And read well this last article, they make all the analysis for you and explain it very well. In short, f2p and p2p models are not in competition as they are not aimed at the same audience. Both can grow independently and aside from WoW ruining the day for everyone as usual, both are growing.
I had that link visited already and I believe you are the one that sent me to it, if it was, you should know this already.
Also, you have the wrong stats for FFXIV, from everything I could find in late 2014 and early 2015, by itself it has 2M susbcribers and some articles even mentionned 2.3M. I do not know where you got your information, but I would doubt it. Or perhaps you misread it and it is 1M subscribers for all their games aside FFXIV. I could find that FFXI was around 600k subs not too long ago, so the other could complete it to 1M.
That you believe the marketing around f2p switches is fine, after all I believed ESO would remain without a cash shop, I can't blame you for believing that games were "saved" by their switches.
But you can't misread statistics to such an extent. I hope you'll be more thourough in your analysis in the future.1