Seeing the PTS patch notes and the reaction from people that got to play it a lot, 1.6 is a success. Sure there are many things to tweak still, but that's the point of a public test server.
When 1.6 hits live, it will hopefully have ironed out most of its issues and will definitely be a great step forward for ESO.
Actually, 1.6 is such a great success that its hype only has increased ESO's subscriber counts even two months before its actual release!
http://steamcharts.com/app/306130
Since 17th of December, date of the livestream about 1.6, the active players were growing fast, up to half of what it was at the steam release (alegedly, 772k).
If we consider the community followed the steam trends, it means that at the worst point, in November, it was at 198k subscribers, $35.64M a year.
And we're now back to 410k susbcribers, $73,8M a year, with the growth starting with the 1.6 livestream!
http://www.vg247.com/2014/03/05/funcom-q4-revenues-down-but-mmos-cash-flow-positive/
A studio of similar size, Funcom, has a positive cashflow with the equivalent of 95k susbcribers. So ZOS, must be in the same situation
That's 50% profit margin at its worst and 75% profit margin today!
if we average this out, we obtain around 300k subscribers and $54M yearly. 66% profit margin.
Warframe, top f2p on consoles + PC above DCUO and the best of ESO's future competition, is a huge hit with $54M revenue at 32% profit margin and even chinese chicken breeders want a piece of that.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-10-16-digital-extremes-sells-61-per-cent-of-shares-for-usd73-millionMy point being that this whole B2P conversion is a huge mistake.
The game can obviously hold people subscribed, and had the DLC plan not gone in motion a few months back, it would be in a better state right now.
Had the dev worked on each zone sequentially instead of working on 7 zones at the same time we probably would have at least one, perhaps two, of them in the game. Wrothgar, Murkmire or the Imperial City.
How many people would have enjoyed this content and resubed to see it then stay for the hype of 1.6? We'll never know.
The difference in box sales between b2p or subscription will not compensate for the years of susbcription the game is forfeiting. And console players are just as ready than PC players to pay a subscription.
A vast majority of those that would be interested in a game like ESO would already be paying for Xbox Live or PSN and it would not be a factor in their decision. It would actually make their current payment bring more bang for their buck.
Even you guys know that:
http://gamerant.com/bethesda-talks-elder-scrolls-online-fees/http://dailycollegian.com/2014/09/03/final-fantasy-xiv-turns-one-this-month-a-look-back-on-a-realm-reborn/
In only a year, a game like FFXIV managed to reach 2.3M subscribers with 500k average daily active players. And these guys are only on one console platforms.
There is virtualy no competition on the Xbox one. ESO would have a whole market of starved customers.
On another hand, all b2p/f2p games are losing revenue yearly. Even games that are actually not doing that bad (gw2) or have a very strong IP (swtor) lose around 20 to 30 percent revenue each year. SWTOR, star wars for free, can barely attract 1.2M active players. TES is strong, but not as strong as Star Wars.
And finaly, cash shops put too much pressure on game design. They force to make sacrifices and in the end, cause the game to lose quality. Everyone says that, including you guys.
http://venturebeat.com/2013/06/17/final-fantasy-online-director-defends-monthly-subscriptions-in-the-golden-age-of-free-to-play-exclusive/http://www.polygon.com/2013/8/21/4643856/elder-scrolls-online-monthly-subscriptionhttp://www.polygon.com/2014/3/12/5499556/why-the-elder-scrolls-online-needs-a-monthly-subscriptionhttp://gamerant.com/bethesda-talks-elder-scrolls-online-fees/
Those links actually make you guys look dishonest. Either then, or now that you try to spring this change on us after months of us paying to finaly see a premium game getting better. No one in their right mind can trust anything you say from now on.
You've lost the most valuable commodity a studio can have: goodwill.
In the end, show this forum post and all the ones like it to whomever wants the b2p switch plans to go through. Whether it is the parent company or investors, teach them the realities of the MMO market for the sake of your creation.
Use the actual numbers we could only interpolate here and explain to them what a mistake it is. Tell them you are throwing away revenue and long term growth just to handle this game like a single player release.
It's not too late, people are angry, but if this community really is your source of inspiration and if you really listen to us, cancel the b2p switch.
An honest apology and fixing this mistake will go a long way towards making the playerbase trust you guys again.
And if you really want additional revenue, go ahead with the costumes, pets and mount skins. Non gameplay impacting cosmetic stuff for people that want to support the game is not too much of a slipery slope and would mean you didn't develop the crown shop for nothing.
@ZOS_MattFiror @ZOS_PaulSage @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom
And if only I could,
@bethesda_PeteHines