Market Manipulation?

Troponin

I Just noticed, over the last week or two, VR12 Warlock signets (rings) have gone from averaging 3-10k gold to 30,000 and over. I can only think of one way it did that, and that's market manipulation. The supply is still very high, so the example here would be similar to ramping. All that it takes is for one or a few people to set the example to artificially raise the normal market price.

I know what some of you will say though; "The value of an item is what someone is willing to pay for it". Well yes, but in a case where a far lesser population can no longer even afford it, should the value remain the same since supply is remaining very high? Is it still the free market and capitalistic structure when a small group of people forcefully drive the price up and out of range of its normal customer base?

nerevarine1138

That doesn't actually work the way you've described it.

If only a small group of people want to overcharge for something, they will only be successful if people pay for it. I've seen plenty of people try to offer ridiculous prices on things they have no business selling for those numbers, and I simply tell them that it's not going to happen. Two days of that, and the price ends up magically being lowered to reasonable ranges.

ers101284b14_ESO

Troponin wrote: »

I Just noticed, over the last week or two, VR12 Warlock signets (rings) have gone from averaging 3-10k gold to 30,000 and over. I can only think of one way it did that, and that's market manipulation. The supply is still very high, so the example here would be similar to ramping. All that it takes is for one or a few people to set the example to artificially raise the normal market price.

I know what some of you will say though; "The value of an item is what someone is willing to pay for it". Well yes, but in a case where a far lesser population can no longer even afford it, should the value remain the same since supply is remaining very high? Is it still the free market and capitalistic structure when a small group of people forcefully drive the price up and out of range of its normal customer base?

You can ramp up the Price to try to get more but if the population can't afford it or decide they don't want it then the seller will eventually have to lower the price to sell. They may also be manipulating it not to sell it but for extra space. They can put 30 items up on the store that they never intend to sell in the first place so it gives them 30 bag spaces for a month.

Circuitous

No offense but what VR12 can't afford two 30k rings?

Anyway, as far as MMOs go, a lot of things influence pricing of items beyond supply and demand.

A VR12 item goes for more not because it's rarer, or because the demand is super high, but because there's an expectation that the people it's for can afford it. Basically, they're luxury items.

It's also possible that Warlock rings really are rarer now, and that demand really is higher given changes in the meta and other set bonuses. That conclusion requires a lot more info than I have, however.

Slurg

Are you seeing these prices in zone chat, guild stores with kiosks, guild stores without kiosks, or all three?

If there are even a few people willing to pay that much, it seems prices over all three would rise accordingly. Probably not a mass conspiracy though there could be a few sellers buying low and selling high.

yiasemi

Yep they hope to sell one at an outrageous price then sell the others or deconstruct them. I thought about that, and said, 'nah, this is just a game, life has enough psychopathic users' and sold fairly immediately at base price leaving lots of room for more sales. Still going strong with a roof over my head in RL, and lacking for nothing in game.

Troponin

nerevarine1138 wrote: »

That doesn't actually work the way you've described it.

If only a small group of people want to overcharge for something, they will only be successful if people pay for it. I've seen plenty of people try to offer ridiculous prices on things they have no business selling for those numbers, and I simply tell them that it's not going to happen. Two days of that, and the price ends up magically being lowered to reasonable ranges.

The idea behind ramping is to push the price up to much higher than they are normally. It forces people in to having no choice but to buy at high prices. You push every one of them up so that you can no longer shop around for those lower prices too. In a world (and game) where something is much needed, then people are forced to buy it. In this case, in order to be successful in a game where gear is needed in order to progress, the warlock set is one of the best dropped accessories available, and people need them, in most cases, to be good at what they are needed for. That's my point.

BEZDNA

Why not if ppl are ready to pay that insane price? A week ago i sold 2 warlock rings, one for 40k and one for 45k. And btw 3-10k - newer saw such a price, unless it's for a friend. I first finished trials in 4 days after cragron relised and since that time i do it at list once a day, all my guild mates sell it not less then for 20k for almost 3 months. So i realy don't see you point

Aeratus

If the supply is high, as you described, it is impossible for market collusion to occur.

Only when the supply is low is it possible for players to engage in market collusion or price fixing.

babylon

Why would anyone pay that with VR14 coming in?

Circuitous

'Cuz 30k is a drop in the bucket and that item would make the content necessary to get to VR14 easier?

nerevarine1138

Troponin wrote: »

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nerevarine1138 wrote: »

That doesn't actually work the way you've described it.

If only a small group of people want to overcharge for something, they will only be successful if people pay for it. I've seen plenty of people try to offer ridiculous prices on things they have no business selling for those numbers, and I simply tell them that it's not going to happen. Two days of that, and the price ends up magically being lowered to reasonable ranges.

The idea behind ramping is to push the price up to much higher than they are normally. It forces people in to having no choice but to buy at high prices. You push every one of them up so that you can no longer shop around for those lower prices too. In a world (and game) where something is much needed, then people are forced to buy it. In this case, in order to be successful in a game where gear is needed in order to progress, the warlock set is one of the best dropped accessories available, and people need them, in most cases, to be good at what they are needed for. That's my point.

I understand the idea, but it's just not possible in this game. Warlock rings aren't a finite resource, and without some collaboration, a single person being ridiculous about prices can't alter the market.

For example, someone was trying to sell Rekuta in zone chat for 3k. They were quickly disabused of the notion that this was a price anyone would pay, and they lowered their prices within a few minutes. The best way to deal with anyone offering ridiculous prices is to immediately offer a fair price, or to inform people in zone chat that this price isn't fair. Choke out their potential market of ignorant players, and they'll be forced to sell for a reasonable amount.

babylon

Circuitous wrote: »

'Cuz 30k is a drop in the bucket and that item would make the content necessary to get to VR14 easier?

It's actually not that big an upgrade from the VR1 jewellery. If you feel you need the VR12 jewellery to succeed then it's probably your playing that needs to be looked at more than your gear.

Slurg

On a broader scope, I don't think under our current system you could really get a cabal of elite users dictating prices to the entire market , since there are so many outlets for buying and selling. It's easy to see trends in how much certain items generally sell for, but no one can force a seller to sell higher or a buyer to buy at inflated prices. Buyers will pay what an item is worth to them and most sellers price accordingly in their market assuming they want to sell.

Example: I received a poorly written profanity laden email in game yesterday from someone I didn't know who is apparently in one of my trade guilds- from what I could decipher he/she was angry I sold some things for less than he/she was selling them for. I sold at what I felt was a good price and I was happy with what I got. I'm not about to inflate my prices to make some other random seller happy.

So it seems there are some people who are trying to dictate inflated prices, but they are so easy to report for harassment and ignore, why would anyone listen to them?

Skylandra

"Would you kindly stop spamming /z with your over inflated prices - Thanks"
- that one normally sorts them out.

Circuitous

Skylandra wrote: »

"Would you kindly stop spamming /z with your over inflated prices - Thanks"
- that one normally sorts them out.

I've seen and done this more times than I can count, it's never accomplished more than angry tells.

nerevarine1138

Circuitous wrote: »

show previous quotes

Skylandra wrote: »

"Would you kindly stop spamming /z with your over inflated prices - Thanks"
- that one normally sorts them out.

I've seen and done this more times than I can count, it's never accomplished more than angry tells.

Guess why they're angry.

When you call them out in zone, they lose everyone who was reading zone chat. Now they have to wait for new people and hope someone doesn't remind them that they're inflating prices.

AlexDougherty

Troponin wrote: »

I Just noticed, over the last week or two, VR12 Warlock signets (rings) have gone from averaging 3-10k gold to 30,000 and over. I can only think of one way it did that, and that's market manipulation.

What??

Supply and demand will do that, quite easily.

People see that they go for 10K so they put them up for 12K because they might sell at that price too.

Next person sees they've been selling for 12K so sells them for 14K. Third person sells them for 18K, fourth person for 24K, sixth person for 30K.

This is not market manipulation, just how markets work.

Please think of other ways something can happen before you say something's being manipulated.

Nestor

A few sellers are not going to manipulate the market. The only way that can happen is if all sellers collude on price fixing schemes.

If someone has an absurd price on something, the next one will not. I see this all the time with Guild Vendors, if the prices are too high, I find another guild. The other day I was looking for a specific trait item because drops were not giving it to me. One Vendor had them priced at 2000 and up, the Guild Vendor right next to them had them for 500, and the one next to that had them for 200. Guess which one I bought from?

Anyone who buys something in this game for the first price they see, runs the risk of spending too much money. Unless of course you know the price being offered is a good one because you have experience shopping already for that item.

Kungfu

Addressing your questions directly:

Troponin wrote: »

Well yes, but in a case where a far lesser population can no longer even afford it, should the value remain the same since supply is remaining very high?

Ehh... I'm not too worried about that value because a couple of things are happening behind the scenes here in your example.

First and foremost - armor can be purchased ONE time for a player and they never need to purchase it again. Because it's not a consumable resource, these vendors have no long-term stability. So, they're gonna get what money they can now and then the price will fall eventually as the market saturates.

Second
Where do vr12 Warlock items come from? AA farming and trials runs, right? (haven't actually done 'em myself to be perfectly honest... just going off what I've surmised from threads & chat)

So, somebody out there is farming these items. They are selling them all the time in chat. Whoever this is that's inflating the price is most likely purchasing them for that original 3-5k. Like... ALL of them... Can't have some competition under-cutting you, right?

Thus, their action of purchasing these items is actually fuelling the economy of those "farmers" and, because they're getting rich doing it, they will most likely continue to farm. They will increase their speed / skill / optimization of the farming they're doing in order to make even more money, I would expect.

So... the market will actually get flooded with more and more total items of the same type(s). Thus, the more people who have purchased the warlock set (or any set, really), the fewer potential customers these high-priced pushers will get.

Troponin wrote: »

Is it still the free market and capitalistic structure when a small group of people forcefully drive the price up and out of range of its normal customer base?

In my mind, that's absolutely capitalistic. Someone cannot attempt anything like that in another form of economy... it's fundamentally impossible by the true definitions of communist or socialist economies.

What you're not really mentioning in your question though, is the words "try to". In a capitalist economy, anyone can TRY TO forcefully drive up the price of a commodity. But, if it is successful, it will not be so for long.

The wonderful irony in this situation is that the very thing that makes these sale prices look good to the current sellers is what will kill their profit potential entirely.

More people will see those prices and decide "ooo - I want in on that"
More "farmers" will see the 'going rate' and decide "WTF - I'm not selling you a set for 10k anymore... this thing's worth 100k."

It will grow, more people will get involved, and eventually none of them will be able to find enough customers. So they will open up themselves to be bargained with because they now have inventory they do not want. Less profit now is better than no profit later.

So, the bubble will fill, the bubble will burst, and the price will plummet.


IF this is happening now, just wait.

Or better yet - go farm some yourself and see if you can make a dime before this opportunity disappears!

Now THAT is capitalism.

p_tsakirisb16_ESO

Circuitous wrote: »

No offense but what VR12 can't afford two 30k rings?

I can tell you. VR12 Templars, and those who spend their time in Cyrodiil and not farming those 2-3 specific bosses on Trials to get those items.

As for the Warlock set price. LOL......

VR14 version is coming with the patch. Waste of money to anyone who spends money on them.

Super_Sonico

Troponin wrote: »

I know what some of you will say though; "The value of an item is what someone is willing to pay for it".

As I stated here, this is an obtuse argument. I'll add here that the people using it know it.

What something is worth is the lowest price that people can reliably find it for.

Crowzer

I sold 2 for 40K each. Not my fault if people still bought at 40K.

Gorthax

Circuitous wrote: »

No offense but what VR12 can't afford two 30k rings?

This one right here. Apparently I need to L2P (spend every moment of my life in the game) because making gold (aside from killing mobs for 5-10 gold) seems to be pretty hard. Maybe I am just not privy to the secret in this mmo. With the prices people charge, i would rather just sit in my junk gear and waste gold on my repairs.

Auric_ESO

Not sure of the point the OP is trying to make. Yes it's overpriced. But if people are willing to pay it then that's thier choice. Are you asking for those prices to be lowered by zos? Just go in and edit the asking price? Banning based on subjective price gouging? What is your point?

kitsinni

I'm sure part of it is with V14 coming out people have a lot less interest in doing trials anymore so supply starts to go down.

dharbert

There is no "market", not in the traditional sense. There are no set prices in this game to base anything from, other than the few things that NPC's sell. There is no price for anything that is "fair". Players can buy and sell any item for any price they want. Welcome to capitalism.

lathbury

Better of trading in a pve guild at guildy rates for things like that we generally sell to each other at 8k for signets and 5 for the focus. Don't want new members feeling forced in to buying things for 30k in zone chat.

Pallmor

I bet it's Sheogorath. He's always messing with stuff.

dodgehopper_ESO

Slurg wrote: »

On a broader scope, I don't think under our current system you could really get a cabal of elite users dictating prices to the entire market , since there are so many outlets for buying and selling. It's easy to see trends in how much certain items generally sell for, but no one can force a seller to sell higher or a buyer to buy at inflated prices. Buyers will pay what an item is worth to them and most sellers price accordingly in their market assuming they want to sell.

Example: I received a poorly written profanity laden email in game yesterday from someone I didn't know who is apparently in one of my trade guilds- from what I could decipher he/she was angry I sold some things for less than he/she was selling them for. I sold at what I felt was a good price and I was happy with what I got. I'm not about to inflate my prices to make some other random seller happy.

So it seems there are some people who are trying to dictate inflated prices, but they are so easy to report for harassment and ignore, why would anyone listen to them?

This is actually one thing I think that is fantastic about all the different guild stores out there. It creates a much more realistic system where information is more scarce. In real life, stocks are not just sold on the NYSE. There is more than one real estate brokerage selling the property, and more than one Grocery selling you food. If you want to get any of these things at the best quality and cheapest price, it takes some digging... and that's what this system gives. I love it, and I hope ZOS never changes it.

GnatB

Theoretically it "only" takes about 900 accounts to have a fair shot at price fixing the market.

If guild kiosks are where most players buy stuff from, it'll only take ~900 accounts to own all the good ones. That said, I doubt the gold selling market in ESO is lucrative enough to make that profitable