Is it just me or are crown crates worse now?

spartaxoxo · September 25

Yeah, it's always been RNG but...I feel like the odds of getting Scrolls and duplicates has increased. In addition, it seems like bonus cards happen less often. Are the odds of getting a bonus card published anywhere?

In my experience, it's the bonus cards that were mostly likely to get you an apex or radiant apex card. And so less bonus cards also means less of those.

It's something I've noticed a few seasons now. As a result, I purchased less crates.

Rkindaleft · September 25

https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/#en/answer/49828 It doesn't tell you odds of bonus cards or radiant apex.

I'm not sure it's allowed but I'll add a link to a video where someone took 3 different openings and compiled the data to determine (roughly) what the drop chances are. Note it's not perfect as it's always dependant on RNG but I don't believe we have a better measure atm. This video is from last year. It's starts somewhere around 3 minutes.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=WBShLElymYw&list=PLstzsXov6h2HQ0hGSIZP3WQMYHiYi-AnG&index=2

tsaescishoeshiner · September 25

It might just be you. The rarity droprates are posted officially: https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/#en/answer/49828

You can also go to crowncrates.com to see user data collection and droprates for specific Crates—but they stopped adding new Crates a few years ago.

I think there are business or legal reasons behind why they have to stick to the posted droprates. It would be bad to reduce them, as people wouldn't want Crates as much.

What has changed is that we get costumes and polymorphs as Apex rewards now, where they used to be Legendary or lower only. That could cause some people to buy more to collect everything.

I find the outfit styles, adornments and some markings have gotten better over time. Athough I miss the makeup and more versatile head marking options we used to get.

spartaxoxo · September 25

tsaescishoeshiner wrote: »

It might just be you. The rarity droprates are posted officially

The drop rates are posted by category.

Scrolls are legendary rewards. So, they can weigh scrolls more heavily and not change their posted stats. Same with duplicates.

Edit

On some rewards, chances improve with each successive missed roll and resets once you receive the reward

They also say this which makes it sound like some categories (or possibly crate seasons) have this adjustment and others do not.

We don't get information about which crates that is nor any information about the odds of bonus cards in that link.

DenverRalphy · September 26

I bought the two most recent rounds of crown crates, and made out like a bandit each time. Had the best results I've ever had with a full batch. Saw the most Gold cards I've ever encountered before. Even popped my first Radiant Apex. Only down side was I got less gems back in return.

And I rarely get that lucky. Ever.

[edit] Just want to clarify that by no means did I post this as a boast. Just thought it worth noting a counter example to the question.

Finedaible · September 26

"While we currently have no plans to change the odds, we reserve the right to update or modify information shown above at our discretion to reflect changes and/or evolving reporting standards."

As far as the consumer can know, RNG is all manipulated. The wording regarding RNG is that the company can change the odds at their own discretion; Perhaps even dynamically on Live server too? It is purposely left vague. So I would assume any gambling crates are effectively rigged in the house's favor like any other casino. If you cannot get something via gems or endeavours you are better off spending your time/money elsewhere in my opinion.

Back in the day I got the radiant apex mount from a freebie crate, nowadays you purchase 30+ crates and get everything but the most coveted items and freebie crates only drop pets at best now.

Lylith · September 26

DenverRalphy wrote: »

I bought the two most recent rounds of crown crates, and made out like a bandit each time. Had the best results I've ever had with a full batch. Saw the most Gold cards I've ever encountered before. Even popped my first Radiant Apex. Only down side was I got less gems back in return.

And I rarely get that lucky. Ever.

i'm happy for you, my last two go-rounds were mostly trash, but they helped me accumulate more gems, so there is that.

peacenote · September 26

I think it's very hard to tell unless you buy more crates than I tend to do. And, recently, I was opening some crates I forgot I had and received a mount, so I can't say anecdotally I've observed this.

However just throwing this out there (and I could be completely wrong)... it has kind of felt to me like the pool has been diluted and re-balanced to cause this feeling. Basically, when the weapon styles were added at the 100 gem reward tier and the motif books were thrown in there somewhere. Iirc correctly, those are a newer-ish addition - not brand new, but not always there. At one point I just remember looking and thinking "it's kind of a bummer to have all of these weapon styles in here." Because I don't mind buying the packs when I like the style, but it doesn't feel like a good reward when a bland, singular weapon style comes up as your "lucky" legendary reward. For example, if you look at the Dark Brotherhood crate, getting "Black Sacrament Skin Carving" or "Dragontail Mountain Bear" just doesn't seem equivalent to "Dark Executioner Greatsword," to me. I guess maybe if you're really into weapon styles, you might be excited, but to me when I get a weapon it doesn't feel like a "legendary" reward.

Plus now the Apex rewards often have other things besides just mounts, reducing the chances you'll get a mount which has always been poised as the "biggest" reward. Perhaps I've just been around too long (and therefore too conditioned to what used to be), but no amount of "coolness" to a recall animation is going to make me feel like it's as good as a mount.

In other words, I think there has been an inflation value of certain kinds of rewards, pushing them up a tier, thus making it feel more disappointing, more often, and making the rare rewards feel like they are rarer when technically the drop rate is probably mathematically the same.

Lylith · September 26

used to be if you bought a raft (15 or 25) you'd almost be guaranteed an apex mount; that doesn't seem to be the case anymore, although you WILL get 14 copies of some new pet and 7 copies of an ugly hat.

Jaimeh · September 26

It's been a few years since I noticed it. Around the time they changed the gem level of costumes and skins. Not only that but the gem yield has also been cut down significantly. You don't accumulate as much from conversion as you did before. It's all to counteract the loss from seals of endeavors.

zaria · September 26

Finedaible wrote: »

"While we currently have no plans to change the odds, we reserve the right to update or modify information shown above at our discretion to reflect changes and/or evolving reporting standards."

As far as the consumer can know, RNG is all manipulated. The wording regarding RNG is that the company can change the odds at their own discretion; Perhaps even dynamically on Live server too? It is purposely left vague. So I would assume any gambling crates are effectively rigged in the house's favor like any other casino. If you cannot get something via gems or endeavours you are better off spending your time/money elsewhere in my opinion.

Back in the day I got the radiant apex mount from a freebie crate, nowadays you purchase 30+ crates and get everything but the most coveted items and freebie crates only drop pets at best now.

Back then the crown crate logger mod who updated the crowncrates.com site was active we had 3rd part data logging of it.
But I don't think they cheat here.

But its known that ESO has had various tilted loot tables over the years for popular sets before.

Shara_Wynn · September 26

I bought a single Dark Brotherhood crate because I was missing like four gems for the hat I wanted, and I got a legendary bear mount (dragontail mountain bear which I will never use), a superior body marking (morag tong writ count body art, which goes great with the maomer fish skin) and a bonus card which turned out to be a sweetroll so...

moderatelyfatman · September 26

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Yeah, it's always been RNG but...I feel like the odds of getting Scrolls and duplicates has increased. In addition, it seems like bonus cards happen less often. Are the odds of getting a bonus card published anywhere?

In my experience, it's the bonus cards that were mostly likely to get you an apex or radiant apex card. And so less bonus cards also means less of those.

It's something I've noticed a few seasons now. As a result, I purchased less crates.

Mate, just assume that everything's worse and are less likely to be disappointed!

Amottica · September 26

While the observation presented that they are getting more duplicates is anecdotal, it stands to reason that it is accurate since the more items someone has collected, the more likely they will get a duplicate.

As for a bonus card, crowncrates.com, which has ceased collecting data, had a drop rate of 17%, which is less than 1 in 5. That does not mean someone will get 3 or 4 bonus cards when opening 20 crates, but over the long haul, it should work out to 17 bonus cards when opening 100 crates, give or take a crate. The Apex reward is about 2%, with the radiant versions being a fraction of that.

Then again, what we are seeing is merely anecdotal. The chances are low and one should expect to not get what they want.

spartaxoxo · September 26

17% for a bonus card would be lower than the 20% it was when crown crates launched. I wonder if it's been lowered since crowncrates.com stopped collecting data.

I never expected to get what I want. I only buy crates if I like the seasonal rewards as an entire category.

CrashTest · September 26

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I feel like the odds of getting Scrolls and duplicates has increased.

I noticed this years ago. I used to buy a 5k crown crate pack regularly, but stopped when I saw the increasing number of trash drops.

reazea · September 26

The drop rates for anything decent is lower, but the crates are still the same. That's why I haven't bought a crate since 2016 or so.

Thee_Cheshire_Cat · September 27

Since my last comment was deleted, let me just chime in and say, that the crates i paid money for were terrible and very disappointing. i had only been trying for a simple emote- and ended up with just scroll stuff mostly. To those who actually get nice things,.... at least someone is. Nice job.

TaSheen · September 27

Thee_Cheshire_Cat wrote: »

Since my last comment was deleted, let me just chime in and say, that the crates i paid money for were terrible and very disappointing. i had only been trying for a simple emote- and ended up with just scroll stuff mostly. To those who actually get nice things,.... at least someone is. Nice job.

Do you not have Seals of Endeavors to use? That's how I get things I want from the crates without buying the crates....