wills43b14_ESO wrote: »Hi guys,
There's a lot of misinformation on this page, so I thought I would present both a numerical and analytical approach to clear some stuff up. I don't have an in-game sample to look at how the possible outcomes are distributed. However, the previous theory of harvesting a node to get materials, then having a 50% chance to essentially harvest it a second time sounds like a reasonable theory to test. Essentially, the argument is saying if you "succeed", it's like you harvested two nodes and got a random amount of material from each one.
Let's say a node can generate 1, 2, 3, or 4 materials.
If we harvest a node and fail the dice roll (don't get the passive), we can get 1, 2, 3, or 4 material.
If we harvest it and succeed in our roll (50% chance), then we can get: 1, 2, 3, or 4 material the "first" time AND 1, 2, 3, or 4 material the second time (note: this is NOT doubling - it basically acts like you get to harvest a second node).
Under this assumption, we can come up with a basic algorithm to figure out how many we should get:
Let's take 10,000 samples and add them to a list called "samples"; here is the algorithm:
- Draw a random value from 1, 2, 3, or 4 (we'll assume each value is equally likely).
- Now, roll a die.
- If the die reads less than or equal to 3, we take the value we just had and add it to our samples list (anywhere from 1-4 material). If it is greater than 3 (50% chance of getting to harvest a second time), draw a second random value from 1, 2, 3, or 4 and add it to the first value we drew and then add it to the samples list (could get anywhere from 2-8 total material in this case).
- Repeat 10k times.
Note: we can harvest 1 + 0, 2 + 0, 3 + 0, 4 + 0, 1 + 1, 2 + 1, ... , or 4 + 4 material based on what happens (anywhere from 1-8 material; but most likely to get 4 or less as many combos = 2, 3, or 4!)
I'm now going to graph how many times we harvested 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 material.
As we can see, you're mostly going to get 4 or less material. In fact there is a 70% chance you will get 4 or less. You will only get 5 or more 30% of the time. Also, cool fact, the frequency of 4 or more material is 50% (half) of getting less than 4!
CONCLUSION/TL;DR: If this algorithm is true, ZOS is likely correct, it's just not interpreted the way we would have thought.
For math peeps:
E[x + 0.5x] = E[1.5x] = 1.5 * E[x] = 1.5 * mean of x
Mean of values 1:4 (weighted equally) is 2.5 - if we take 1.5 * 2.5, we get a mean of 3.75. If I take the mean of those samples (or at least my 10k samples), we actually get an average of 3.73 material (median of 4, which matches the histogram), which is likely within Monte Carlo Error.
Code in R:
draw = c()
for (i in 1:10000) {
temp = sample(1:4, 1)
rng = runif(1,0,1)
if(rng > 0.5) {
temp = temp + sample(1:4, 1)
}
draw = c(draw, temp)
}
hist(draw)
summary(draw)
wills43b14_ESO wrote: »@tmbrinks corrected me on the nodes that they're 3 or 4, so it should be 6, 7, or 8. In which case, you should get < 5 (no double) 50% of the time, and > 5 50% of the time.
redspecter23 wrote: »wills43b14_ESO wrote: »Hi guys,
There's a lot of misinformation on this page, so I thought I would present both a numerical and analytical approach to clear some stuff up. I don't have an in-game sample to look at how the possible outcomes are distributed. However, the previous theory of harvesting a node to get materials, then having a 50% chance to essentially harvest it a second time sounds like a reasonable theory to test. Essentially, the argument is saying if you "succeed", it's like you harvested two nodes and got a random amount of material from each one.
Let's say a node can generate 1, 2, 3, or 4 materials.
If we harvest a node and fail the dice roll (don't get the passive), we can get 1, 2, 3, or 4 material.
If we harvest it and succeed in our roll (50% chance), then we can get: 1, 2, 3, or 4 material the "first" time AND 1, 2, 3, or 4 material the second time (note: this is NOT doubling - it basically acts like you get to harvest a second node).
Under this assumption, we can come up with a basic algorithm to figure out how many we should get:
Let's take 10,000 samples and add them to a list called "samples"; here is the algorithm:
- Draw a random value from 1, 2, 3, or 4 (we'll assume each value is equally likely).
- Now, roll a die.
- If the die reads less than or equal to 3, we take the value we just had and add it to our samples list (anywhere from 1-4 material). If it is greater than 3 (50% chance of getting to harvest a second time), draw a second random value from 1, 2, 3, or 4 and add it to the first value we drew and then add it to the samples list (could get anywhere from 2-8 total material in this case).
- Repeat 10k times.
Note: we can harvest 1 + 0, 2 + 0, 3 + 0, 4 + 0, 1 + 1, 2 + 1, ... , or 4 + 4 material based on what happens (anywhere from 1-8 material; but most likely to get 4 or less as many combos = 2, 3, or 4!)
I'm now going to graph how many times we harvested 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 material.
As we can see, you're mostly going to get 4 or less material. In fact there is a 70% chance you will get 4 or less. You will only get 5 or more 30% of the time. Also, cool fact, the frequency of 4 or more material is 50% (half) of getting less than 4!
CONCLUSION/TL;DR: If this algorithm is true, ZOS is likely correct, it's just not interpreted the way we would have thought.
For math peeps:
E[x + 0.5x] = E[1.5x] = 1.5 * E[x] = 1.5 * mean of x
Mean of values 1:4 (weighted equally) is 2.5 - if we take 1.5 * 2.5, we get a mean of 3.75. If I take the mean of those samples (or at least my 10k samples), we actually get an average of 3.73 material (median of 4, which matches the histogram), which is likely within Monte Carlo Error.
Code in R:
draw = c()
for (i in 1:10000) {
temp = sample(1:4, 1)
rng = runif(1,0,1)
if(rng > 0.5) {
temp = temp + sample(1:4, 1)
}
draw = c(draw, temp)
}
hist(draw)
summary(draw)
The problem with your assumption is that materials don't drop at a 1, 2, 3, 4 rate. The math after that may or may not be accurate. I didn't check it, but it appears you put a ton of work into it.
If you want a solid, easy to track set of tests, you can go with alchemy nodes. They will typically drop 1 ingredient on a standard pull and 2 on a "double" pull. It's very easy to test over a large amount of nodes what your drop rate actually is for that particular situation. Even when the math is as easy as 1 or 2 only, we are still seeing a trend toward mid 30% chance to double. Over thousands of points of data, this should be statistically near impossible.
Skullstachio wrote: »Good thing I don’t use plentiful harvest then.
Skullstachio wrote: »Good thing I don’t use plentiful harvest then.
I mean...
It's supposed to be 50%
We're getting ~30%
Not using it you get 0%
It's still better than nothing...
LoneStar2911 wrote: »Skullstachio wrote: »Good thing I don’t use plentiful harvest then.
I mean...
It's supposed to be 50%
We're getting ~30%
Not using it you get 0%
It's still better than nothing...
They're not arguing whether or not it's better than nothing.
They're arguing that the tooltip is incorrect/false. It's ~30%. Not 50%, like it states. Therefore, ZOS needs to fix the tooltip or fix their algorithm.
I still think it’s a shame, and would be easier to track, that they nerfed it from 100% to 50%... it would solve so many issues. Not only that, seeing as it takes a fair few cp to max the passive, it would mean real players vs bots would mean bots would be on the losing side for a change. It could have almost solved their bot problem in one genius move.
LoneStar2911 wrote: »Skullstachio wrote: »Good thing I don’t use plentiful harvest then.
I mean...
It's supposed to be 50%
We're getting ~30%
Not using it you get 0%
It's still better than nothing...
They're not arguing whether or not it's better than nothing.
They're arguing that the tooltip is incorrect/false. It's ~30%. Not 50%, like it states. Therefore, ZOS needs to fix the tooltip or fix their algorithm.
LoneStar2911 wrote: »Skullstachio wrote: »Good thing I don’t use plentiful harvest then.
I mean...
It's supposed to be 50%
We're getting ~30%
Not using it you get 0%
It's still better than nothing...
They're not arguing whether or not it's better than nothing.
They're arguing that the tooltip is incorrect/false. It's ~30%. Not 50%, like it states. Therefore, ZOS needs to fix the tooltip or fix their algorithm.
I'm not saying that in any, way, shape, or form.
The post I quoted was saying "Good thing I don't use plentiful harvest then..."
I was saying that 30% is still better than getting 0%, regardless of what the tooltip says (and still better than the 10% we were getting before)
I'm one of the strongest advocators of data-based testing and drop rate research here in this subforum. I hate using anecdotes and "feels" to describe what's happening, preferring hard data.
But 30% is still better than 0%.
I also tested with about 600 survey nodes of my own the other day, got a 40.2% doubling rate. Still statistically below the 50% we should be getting. But still WAY better than the 10% we were getting before.
I am running about 38% on this and 5.7% on homemaker this week. I just started keeping track again last friday. Figured i would keep track for a week and see what happens. I am just shy of 500 normal nodes and 87 print dropped. Not doing a lot of farming this week because of the event.LoneStar2911 wrote: »Skullstachio wrote: »Good thing I don’t use plentiful harvest then.
I mean...
It's supposed to be 50%
We're getting ~30%
Not using it you get 0%
It's still better than nothing...
They're not arguing whether or not it's better than nothing.
They're arguing that the tooltip is incorrect/false. It's ~30%. Not 50%, like it states. Therefore, ZOS needs to fix the tooltip or fix their algorithm.
I'm not saying that in any, way, shape, or form.
The post I quoted was saying "Good thing I don't use plentiful harvest then..."
I was saying that 30% is still better than getting 0%, regardless of what the tooltip says (and still better than the 10% we were getting before)
I'm one of the strongest advocators of data-based testing and drop rate research here in this subforum. I hate using anecdotes and "feels" to describe what's happening, preferring hard data.
But 30% is still better than 0%.
I also tested with about 600 survey nodes of my own the other day, got a 40.2% doubling rate. Still statistically below the 50% we should be getting. But still WAY better than the 10% we were getting before.
I really don't see anyone saying " I got 54%" or " I got 63%" . Everyone is reporting under. I am sure there are people getting more than 50%, but i am guessing it is a lot less than people getting under 50%.
My last time keeping track i only did about 120 nodes and pulled just under 40% as doubles. It's the highest so far of the ones i have kept track of.
This is the same with lockpicking results too... but of course, it becomes even more serious to end gamers if we start to question these percentiles, then it would be fair to assume that crit chance percentiles are off too. Anything that isn’t a flat increase, but instead left to what should be rng, is up for scrutiny. Of course you’d have to be on pc to see those figures with the tracker since us on console don’t have that level of feedback available to us.
Okay... 170 surveys completed = 1,020 nodes
Double Pulls: 301 .... 29.5%
Single Pulls: 719
It's the worse than my previous pool... but my previous pool did atleast include non-survey nodes.
Here is something extra that seems quite damning too...
If you toss a coin 6 times, the chance of it being heads 6 times is 1/64 (which is pretty much what we should be seeing with the survey nodes... only a 1/64 chance of them all being single or double).
However, 16 of my surveys were ALL single nodes... and ZERO were all double. In fact, I'm yet to see a full double survey and I've done a ton of them. I mean... from 1/64 chance, my findings are closer to 1/10 chance of pulling a full single node survey... and 1/Infinity of a full double.
I think we need some answers on this one.
Yeah I saw your post on that... I went back and logged another 1000 chests in thieves guild heists... still was around the 55-60 range... maybe it’s those particular chests in a closed instance...