Pathfinder wrote: »What ZoS has essentially done was to go from giving me a particular mount for X crowns, to giving me a 50% chance to get a particular mount for X crowns. No thanks.
lordrichter wrote: »I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.
gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »driosketch wrote: »gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?
@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.
lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them
driosketch wrote: »lordrichter wrote: »I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.
Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.
Rune_Relic wrote: »driosketch wrote: »Rune_Relic wrote: »@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?
They would have to tell us what it is.
Which is my point.
The numbers are based on the assumption there is a list of 1~x
In that list will be y amount of items as far as @Recremen example is based.
It assumes every players get to pick everything from the list.
Not that the list is in fact shared with other people who remove items from the list.
In effect skipping lines that have already been accessed by others.
There is a big difference between having your own list of items that you increment through and having a shared list of goods that mutiple people increment through.
Hence that person doing 1500 VMA runs and never getting the item wanted.
I mean yeah we could sit here all day and invent gross hellscapes for ourselves, but I think the thrust of the message is that we have no guarantees the process is "equitable", and even if it were, we already know that pure RNG systems are crap and a direct attack on consumers.
SwaminoNowlino wrote: »My favorite part is all of the people "testing" these crates just covered their costs of producing the crates and everything in them. I lost count about 3 pages in, but just from the people posting in here they have made multiple thousands. Not to mention whatever is going on with the EU server.
GG
lordrichter wrote: »driosketch wrote: »lordrichter wrote: »I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.
Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.
I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.
It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.
Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.
Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.
Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).
biovitalb16_ESO wrote: »Deltia released a video of Crown Crates openning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI). You can clearly see the rates here. 45 crates, $100, 0 mounts.
ZOS, shame on you. I expected more. I can understand greed. You're a company, you need money. It's why you were formed in the first place. But in return we expect SOMETHING. When I saw this video, I was like "Wow... How can this be legal?". I am just super disappointed. There was a time when I thought highly of ZOS as a company. No more. Never again, guys. I am sorry, you have lay inside a coffin and hammered the nails yourselves. Gaining my trust again is gonna be so hard.
Yup its a money grab, plain and simple.
Pathfinder wrote: »Looks like 50 crates is going to net you about 400 gems. So essentially, those 400 gem mounts are costing you 20,000 crowns. I dont have hard numbers, but I think I am pretty close.
Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.
Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.
Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).
Yep, may the odds never be in your favor (for maximum profits).
I was playing Plague, Inc. the other day, fun little time killer. After failing for a 5th time on my attempt to kill off humanity with a fungus I opened the "Pity Mode" - I kid you not, and the game allowed me to move onto the next level.
I know it won't happen, but it would be nice if Zeni added in some sort of failsafe. Say, spend $200 and you get one free pick out of the store.
Sad that such a suggestion even has to be made. What a screw job.
lordrichter wrote: »driosketch wrote: »lordrichter wrote: »I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.
Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.
I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.
It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.
Yes, I am a "whale". Yes, I spend a lot of money on ESO because it's the only game I really enjoy playing -- or play at all anymore. I own everything in the Crown Store, and have supported ZOS. But rather than cater to whales, this is simply whale hunting, and I'm a Level 2 Beluga without set gear.Oh...My...God...
So many....
...WHALES
gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »driosketch wrote: »gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?
@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.
lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them
Ah the penny drops
I have to say, I've just realised something. As far as I'm aware, ZOS have not once come out in defence of crates. That, to me, is admirable. So many companies go on a PR spree when they do this kind of thing, trying to convince customers that "we're just doing this for you guys - really" and similar rubbish, but credit where credit is due - ZOS doesn't seem to have tried to go full snake-oil salesman on this. I applaud that, their silence in defence of these things is great honesty.
I'll check the revision history in a bit (which will probably take a while) and see if there's anything particularly odd there.lordrichter wrote: »I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.driosketch wrote: »Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.lordrichter wrote: »I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.
It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.
10,000 crowns
30 crates
Crate 1
-Helstrom Ancestor Lizard Pet
-Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity x1
-Crown Tri-Restoration Potion x5
-Crown Warrior's Elixir x5
Crate 2
-Crown Warrior's Elixir x5
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
-Crown Warrior's Elixir x5
-Shornhelm Shepherd Pet(Dupe, 5 gems)
Crate 3
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Crown Crate Experience Scroll x1
-Shadow Striping Body Marking
Crate 4
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit Costume
-Crown Crate Fortifying Meal x1
-Storm Atronach Transform Momento
Crate 5
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit Costume(Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
Crate 6 (5 cards)
-Battlemage Tribune Armor Costume (Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Spellcaster's Elixir x5
-Storm Atronach Horse Mount (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
-Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity x1
Crate 7
-Crown Survivor's Elixir x5
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
-Crown Tri-Restoration Potion x5
-Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crate 8
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform Costume (Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Lethal Poison x25
-Crown Crate Fortifying Meal x1
Crate 9 (5 cards)
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Shadow Striping Body Marking (Dupe, 5 gems)
-"Brilliance" Brocade Robes (Dupe, 13 gems)
-Crown Lesson: Riding Speed x1
-Crown Lethal Poison x25
Crate 10 (5 cards)
-Crown Crate Refreshing Drink x1
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Storm Atronach Senche Mount (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
-Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform Costume (Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Invisibility Potion x1
I got two Storm Atronach mounts in 10 crates. Either people are all paranoid and uppity over nothing, or I am ungodly lucky.
300 I think?Celas_Dranacea wrote: »Can someone tell me how many gems the red pit wolf mount would cost to buy outright? That's the only thing I really need in life before I can pass away happily. Anxious to log in after my daughter is asleep tonight!
100 GemsCelas_Dranacea wrote: »Can someone tell me how many gems the red pit wolf mount would cost to buy outright? That's the only thing I really need in life before I can pass away happily. Anxious to log in after my daughter is asleep tonight!
gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »driosketch wrote: »gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?
@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.
lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them
Ah the penny drops
I have to say, I've just realised something. As far as I'm aware, ZOS have not once come out in defence of crates. That, to me, is admirable. So many companies go on a PR spree when they do this kind of thing, trying to convince customers that "we're just doing this for you guys - really" and similar rubbish, but credit where credit is due - ZOS doesn't seem to have tried to go full snake-oil salesman on this. I applaud that, their silence in defence of these things is great honesty.
Actually they had a big PR article on mmorpg.com, talking about how great these crates of consumables are. They have just been silent to their own community.
MMORPG: Why now add these to ESO, several years on?
MF: ESO is a living, breathing service and as such we make changes to it every quarter or so – new content, new systems, fixes, balance changes, etc. Just over a year ago we changed the game’s primary revenue model from subscription-required to subscription-optional, for example. This coming Update, we will drop character level requirements for exploring content, which is a large change to the game that we think will make the game more socially enabled and make it easier for players to find friends and group with them. We are committed to keeping the game fresh and interesting for players for the life of the game, so we will add new systems from time to time – Crown Crates is an example of this.
lordrichter wrote: »I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.