Content outlook or did Asha Sharma doom the game's future?

Nemesis7884 · July 16

https://www.gamefile.news/p/zenimax-online-studio-head-out

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/laid-off-elder-scrolls-online-dev-says-players-wont-get-new-content-at-anything-approaching-the-previous-rate/

If with a fraction of the people -obviously- only a fraction of the content can be produced in the future - lets say future seasons will have 1/3 of the content this year have; the whole business model and value proposition of the game falls apart...?

What incentive will players have to still pay for ESO+? The value proposition of ESO+ has already diminished with the change to seasons... What incentive will players have to pay for the premium tracks if seasons have barely content?

So either / or / and fewer players will be willing to pay for seasons and eso+ in the future or the prices have to massively sink - both of which will mean less revenues and therefore less incentive for microsoft to invest into the game....???

I just CANT understand this decision - this game is a cash cow that would have made another billion in revenues over the next 5 years at 15m+ per month and it and Fallout 76 are a "hold over" for fans while they wait for the next TES entry which is still 3 years away (and the next fallout probably 5-6 even if obisidian makes one)

Msoft should leave the gaming space altogether - they are just incompetent at it...

ESO_player123 · July 16

I think she did.

Erickson9610 · July 16

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

I just CANT understand this decision - this game is a cash cow that would have made another billion in revenues over the next 5 years at 15m+ per month and it and Fallout 76 are a "hold over" for fans while they wait for the next TES entry which is still 3 years away (and the next fallout probably 5-6 even if obisidian makes one)

I just can't see a new Elder Scrolls or Fallout game being profitable. Single player games with no required internet connection mean there are fewer opportunities to monetize the players, even if horse armor DLC is made for them. And if we get a TES VI or a Fallout 5, then that takes players away from ESO and Fallout 76, both of which are live service games meant to make continual profits. Even if we need new mainline titles to revive interest in the franchises, the Fallout television series proves that you don't need to make a competing video game of that franchise to reinvigorate interest in the franchise.

I mean, look at what happened when Skyrim Special Edition and Oblivion Remastered came out during ESO's lifetime. They were both remakes of existing TES games, so they barely detracted from ESO's population as there was nothing new about them. They might've even revitalized interest in the Elder Scrolls franchise, and made more people aware of ESO. Maybe we'll get another TES game remaster (like Morrowind perhaps) from Bethesda to draw more players to ESO instead of making a TES VI, and another season of the Fallout television series to draw more players to Fallout 76 instead of making a Fallout 5.

Pixiepumpkin · July 16

Susan Kath - gone
Joseph Burba - gone
Ala Diaz- gone
Brad Derrick - gone

"Teams across Xbox are still just beginning to feel the deep impact of this month’s 1,600 layoffs. Those cuts have now been revealed to include leadership at ZeniMax Online Studios, the team that makes The Elder Scrolls Online. Studio head Jo Burba, who took over last July after the last round of mass Xbox layoffs, is among those who will depart after 14 years at the company."

"A WARN Act notice filed with the state of Maryland showed 379 layoffs across Microsoft and subsidiary ZeniMax’s offices there, which include Bethesda Game Studios. The notice points to cuts to senior leader positions like Studio Operations Director, Studio Art Manager, and Vice President and Controller."

"Senior encounter designer Morgan Goin was much less optimistic. “We’re not going to be able to put out the amount of content at the speed that we were… or anything approaching that,” she told the BBC. The designer said she felt blindsided by the cuts, which still haven’t wrapped up for the year. Another 1,600 people across Xbox are expected to be laid off by July 2027." - Kotaku

https://kotaku.com/elder-scrolls-online-studio-leadership-revealed-to-be-part-of-the-xbox-cuts-but-say-they-have-tremendous-confidence-in-the-games-future-2000716382

Been trying to tell you guys and for that I get called a doomer, troll, or negative.

Nemesis7884 · July 16

Erickson9610 wrote: »

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

I just CANT understand this decision - this game is a cash cow that would have made another billion in revenues over the next 5 years at 15m+ per month and it and Fallout 76 are a "hold over" for fans while they wait for the next TES entry which is still 3 years away (and the next fallout probably 5-6 even if obisidian makes one)

I just can't see a new Elder Scrolls or Fallout game being profitable. Single player games with no required internet connection mean there are fewer opportunities to monetize the players, even if horse armor DLC is made for them. And if we get a TES VI or a Fallout 5, then that takes players away from ESO and Fallout 76, both of which are live service games meant to make continual profits. Even if we need new mainline titles to revive interest in the franchises, the Fallout television series proves that you don't need to make a competing video game of that franchise to reinvigorate interest in the franchise.

I mean, look at what happened when Skyrim Special Edition and Oblivion Remastered came out during ESO's lifetime. They were both remakes of existing TES games, so they barely detracted from ESO's population as there was nothing new about them. They might've even revitalized interest in the Elder Scrolls franchise, and made more people aware of ESO. Maybe we'll get another TES game remaster (like Morrowind perhaps) from Bethesda to draw more players to ESO instead of making a TES VI, and another season of the Fallout television series to draw more players to Fallout 76 instead of making a Fallout 5.

The answer is
A) paid mods
And
B.) I do think future TES and fallout games will take a VERY hard look at gta's online mode...

Soarora · July 16

All we can do right now is wait and see. PTS is still slated for the end of the month and a roadmap is coming.

Frayton · July 16

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Susan Kath - gone
Joseph Burba - gone
Ala Diaz- gone
Brad Derrick - gone

"Teams across Xbox are still just beginning to feel the deep impact of this month’s 1,600 layoffs. Those cuts have now been revealed to include leadership at ZeniMax Online Studios, the team that makes The Elder Scrolls Online. Studio head Jo Burba, who took over last July after the last round of mass Xbox layoffs, is among those who will depart after 14 years at the company."

"A WARN Act notice filed with the state of Maryland showed 379 layoffs across Microsoft and subsidiary ZeniMax’s offices there, which include Bethesda Game Studios. The notice points to cuts to senior leader positions like Studio Operations Director, Studio Art Manager, and Vice President and Controller."

"Senior encounter designer Morgan Goin was much less optimistic. “We’re not going to be able to put out the amount of content at the speed that we were… or anything approaching that,” she told the BBC. The designer said she felt blindsided by the cuts, which still haven’t wrapped up for the year. Another 1,600 people across Xbox are expected to be laid off by July 2027." - Kotaku

https://kotaku.com/elder-scrolls-online-studio-leadership-revealed-to-be-part-of-the-xbox-cuts-but-say-they-have-tremendous-confidence-in-the-games-future-2000716382

Been trying to tell you guys and for that I get called a doomer, troll, or negative.

Yeah, I'm a realist. That's not popular around here. I like the game and still have a sub, but it is obvious where ESO is headed if you just look.

Pixiepumpkin · July 16

Frayton wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Susan Kath - gone
Joseph Burba - gone
Ala Diaz- gone
Brad Derrick - gone

"Teams across Xbox are still just beginning to feel the deep impact of this month’s 1,600 layoffs. Those cuts have now been revealed to include leadership at ZeniMax Online Studios, the team that makes The Elder Scrolls Online. Studio head Jo Burba, who took over last July after the last round of mass Xbox layoffs, is among those who will depart after 14 years at the company."

"A WARN Act notice filed with the state of Maryland showed 379 layoffs across Microsoft and subsidiary ZeniMax’s offices there, which include Bethesda Game Studios. The notice points to cuts to senior leader positions like Studio Operations Director, Studio Art Manager, and Vice President and Controller."

"Senior encounter designer Morgan Goin was much less optimistic. “We’re not going to be able to put out the amount of content at the speed that we were… or anything approaching that,” she told the BBC. The designer said she felt blindsided by the cuts, which still haven’t wrapped up for the year. Another 1,600 people across Xbox are expected to be laid off by July 2027." - Kotaku

https://kotaku.com/elder-scrolls-online-studio-leadership-revealed-to-be-part-of-the-xbox-cuts-but-say-they-have-tremendous-confidence-in-the-games-future-2000716382

Been trying to tell you guys and for that I get called a doomer, troll, or negative.

Yeah, I'm a realist. That's not popular around here. I like the game and still have a sub, but it is obvious where ESO is headed if you just look.

Same. I love much of the game and what the passionate devs who worked on it produced. Else I'd not be here.
But there is hope, then cope and then the reality of the situation. I am not rich, I have to work for my wares like most folks, meaning its important for me to choose wisely what I spend my money on, which means I think about stuff, a LOT. I do metric tons of research into just about anything I spend money on, even games. The reality is that ESO/Zenimax does not have a strong future. The past two years have not been strong and that issue is now exasperated by letting go of the talented.

Trimming the fat, I can see that. Letting go of people like Brad Derrick...well that reeks to me of intentional destruction. I would not say this had I not seen it before. I would probably be more optimistic vs realistic had I not lived this kind of experience myself. The fact is, when this many people are let go, ESPECIALLY the ones you'd think were untouchable, it puts massive fear into the other employees who are all wondering if they are next on the chopping block. Many will start looking for work elsewhere asap before those jobs are taken.

These situations create downward spirals.

Erickson9610 · July 16

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

Erickson9610 wrote: »

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

I just CANT understand this decision - this game is a cash cow that would have made another billion in revenues over the next 5 years at 15m+ per month and it and Fallout 76 are a "hold over" for fans while they wait for the next TES entry which is still 3 years away (and the next fallout probably 5-6 even if obisidian makes one)

I just can't see a new Elder Scrolls or Fallout game being profitable. Single player games with no required internet connection mean there are fewer opportunities to monetize the players, even if horse armor DLC is made for them. And if we get a TES VI or a Fallout 5, then that takes players away from ESO and Fallout 76, both of which are live service games meant to make continual profits. Even if we need new mainline titles to revive interest in the franchises, the Fallout television series proves that you don't need to make a competing video game of that franchise to reinvigorate interest in the franchise.

I mean, look at what happened when Skyrim Special Edition and Oblivion Remastered came out during ESO's lifetime. They were both remakes of existing TES games, so they barely detracted from ESO's population as there was nothing new about them. They might've even revitalized interest in the Elder Scrolls franchise, and made more people aware of ESO. Maybe we'll get another TES game remaster (like Morrowind perhaps) from Bethesda to draw more players to ESO instead of making a TES VI, and another season of the Fallout television series to draw more players to Fallout 76 instead of making a Fallout 5.

The answer is
A) paid mods
And
B.) I do think future TES and fallout games will take a VERY hard look at gta's online mode...

What I find especially weird about this is that

TES V: Skyrim Special Edition is already doing this. You can spend money on Creation Credits to then spend on paid mods, called "Creations". Is Bethesda really going to make a direct competitor to TES V: Skyrim Special Edition? In fact, just this June there was an announcement article written about several new Creations made for Skyrim Special Edition. Why would Bethesda want to split their modding community (who create the mods that players give Bethesda money to download) across two games?
The fact that GTA VI will not have an online mode speaks volumes. GTA Online is the "GTA MMO" that is built on GTA V's engine. Why would Rockstar Games add an online mode to GTA VI, even if that game is a highly anticipated sequel like TES VI is? If they split their playerbase between games, then both GTA VI and GTA V will suffer. The alternative is to shut down GTA V's online mode to coax people into GTA VI's online mode, but that would kill customer loyalty as nobody wants to lose the investment they make in a game.

In both cases, creating sequels to games which use microtransactions and/or paid mods raises a lot of questions. It's not as clear cut as something like Minecraft Bedrock Edition, which is not at risk of receiving a direct sequel as it's not a numbered entry in a franchise, and which uses a similar microtransaction+paid mods model as the Creations system in Skyrim Special Edition.

Microsoft isn't going to make a "Minecraft 2" because that would defeat the purpose of the monetization system in Minecraft Bedrock Edition. They could make numbered sequels for Minecraft Dungeons, though, since that spinoff franchise uses a different monetization model and isn't meant to be an "evergreen" title like Minecraft is. Some games still get direct sequels.

But now we see franchises that used to receive numbered entries as the primary way of making profit, such as The Elder Scrolls and Fallout, turned into "evergreen" titles which rely on UGC for continual revenue. TES V: Skyrim Special Edition and Fallout 4 both have "Creation Credits" for purchasing player-made mods. These are the "evergreen" titles of their respective franchises, and The Elder Scrolls Online and Fallout 76 are the MMO counterparts to those franchises which are more similar to GTA Online than they are to the mainline games. There is a big difference between how you monetize a single player game versus how you monetize a live service multiplayer game.

Haenk · July 16

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

If with a fraction of the people -obviously- only a fraction of the content can be produced in the future - lets say future seasons will have 1/3 of the content this year have; the whole business model and value proposition of the game falls apart...?

Unfortunately, this is not a linear function. Cutting the staff in half will not result in half the content being created, but probably only a forth. Cutting even further will stop the creation, as all remaining staff is required to keep the game running (including bug fixes and other minor modifications).

I fear, MS expects the AI to take over major parts of the development. Let's see how this works out. My prediction: People will hate it and just leave the game. MS would then have destroyed a billion-dollar franchise just to stick to the new "all AI" company direction.

Eldovar · July 16

I am not very hopefull for the future.

This year is already super low on actual new content with the full team.

Now after the big layoffs I don't expect new zones, new classes, new dungeons etc

They will double down on reheating old content with a few new quests here, low effort stuff like favors and dynamic encounters, solo mode for dungeons (which is basically a balance pass) and a lot more of this.

If ESO dies, it's Microsoft their own fault. I stopped paying last year because I have a policy I only pay for actual new content (zones with new assets, enemies, music, stories, mechanics, ...). Until they deliver that all my money goes to other games, because there are so many other great games out there.

I think the revised roadmap (that will take weeks to make apparently) will be wake up call for many people.

Pixiepumpkin · July 16

Eldovar wrote: »

I am not very hopefull for the future.

This year is already super low on actual new content with the full team.

That is my take as well. If a larger team could not produce more content, and we just lost some of the best creatives, then I just don't see how ZOS is going to put out equal to or more (needs to be more) content.

Eldovar wrote: »

Now after the big layoffs I don't expect new zones, new classes, new dungeons etc
They will double down on reheating old content with a few new quests here, low effort stuff like favors and dynamic encounters, solo mode for dungeons (which is basically a balance pass) and a lot more of this.

Same. I feel like its going to be recolored existing assets for the most part. Cobbles of old stuff to try and make something new. I mean that is pretty much what Solstace was. I guess this is their new method going forward.

Eldovar wrote: »

If ESO dies, it's Microsoft their own fault. I stopped paying last year because I have a policy I only pay for actual new content (zones with new assets, enemies, music, stories, mechanics, ...). Until they deliver that all my money goes to other games, because there are so many other great games out there.

Same again. Wife and I quit. She wont touch ESO. I have only been logging in to play TOT against NPC's, then I log out. It's just not the same game.

Eldovar wrote: »

I think the revised roadmap (that will take weeks to make apparently) will be wake up call for many people.

I doubt it myself. The copium runs hard in the veins of some of the folks around here.

Aliniel · July 16

https://mein-mmo.de/en/the-elder-scrolls-online-team-is-now-as-large-as-during-perhaps-the-best-time-of-the-mmorpgs,1577388/

What is this comparison about? On X, the team from “The Unofficial Elder Scrolls Pages” explains that during the ESO Tavern 2026, they were able to talk with Jessica Folsom (Associate Director of Community Management) and Jason Barnes (Associate Design Director) about the recent layoffs at ZeniMax.

According to the two studio employees, everyone is understandably affected by the recent events. However, the massive layoffs do not mean that there will be no new content for the MMORPG after Season 1. The team is as large after the layoffs as it was during the era of Wrothgar (the DLC from 2015 was called Orsinium) and Summerset – the chapter released in May 2018.

Maybe we're not doomed just yet.

MRAW · July 16

I really would like to know if you guys already have all trifectas in this game that you only play if they deliver new content?

Speaking for myself, I have not even done most hardmode in dlc trials, let alone trifectas. For most players I guess the newer trifecta trials would keep them busy for months.

Looking at the more casual players, many have not even completed all dungeons in vet.
Although of course I have seen many pithcas with „all green“, I think the majority of players could still play ages to only complete the existing content.
I assume only a few hundred players have 100% of all achievements,

I would even love to see a slower pace with updates. I was just familiar with Subclassing and the DK rework and now you have to rethink everything due to class masteries and werewolves. Why would you already need update 51? Already bored with Werwolf and class masteries? Already veterancy rank 100?

Maybe I am too slow or not playing enough but I guess I am not alone.

Eldovar · July 16

Aliniel wrote: »

https://mein-mmo.de/en/the-elder-scrolls-online-team-is-now-as-large-as-during-perhaps-the-best-time-of-the-mmorpgs,1577388/

What is this comparison about? On X, the team from “The Unofficial Elder Scrolls Pages” explains that during the ESO Tavern 2026, they were able to talk with Jessica Folsom (Associate Director of Community Management) and Jason Barnes (Associate Design Director) about the recent layoffs at ZeniMax.

According to the two studio employees, everyone is understandably affected by the recent events. However, the massive layoffs do not mean that there will be no new content for the MMORPG after Season 1. The team is as large after the layoffs as it was during the era of Wrothgar (the DLC from 2015 was called Orsinium) and Summerset – the chapter released in May 2018.

Maybe we're not doomed just yet.

That's already 'old news'.

But some counterpoints:
- if you compare the past years: we missed out on 6 dungeons, three Q4 zones and a whole chapter with "the big team'. When I read statements like that, I wonder what the big team has been doing since the output during the summerset/wrothgar era was a lot higher with half of the team. Then we not only got massive and beloved zones with great storylines, dungeons and trials. But also big systems like jewerly crafting with traits, skill lines like Psijic Order, arenas like Maelstrom with weapons variants and more
- a lot of senior people have been laid off. they know the tools, the processes, etc. Number count alone doesn't make great content, experience does

Thoriorz · July 16

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

What incentive will players have to still pay for ESO+? .

My only current (and future) reason for paying for ESO+ is the Craft Bag; if the Craft Bag were part of the free game, I wouldn't have a subscription (just like a lot of other players).

umagon · July 16

Asha Sharma seems to be one of those executives who does not understand that video games are a blur of art meeting technology. And she can’t just slash her way to efficiency. Efficiency and having some target ROI aren’t always realistic with an art form. Largely due to the fact that sells are based on if people enjoy the product.

I think she has bought into the idea that she can just feed all the outputs from developers she removed into an AI system and it will just duplicate what they did. And there by replacing them at lower cost. But AI systems can’t create anything original, all they do is remix original ideas humans made. She basically removed many of the artists, so I expect the quality of the art to drop significantly.

tomofhyrule · July 16

MRAW wrote: »

I really would like to know if you guys already have all trifectas in this game that you only play if they deliver new content?

Speaking for myself, I have not even done most hardmode in dlc trials, let alone trifectas. For most players I guess the newer trifecta trials would keep them busy for months.

Looking at the more casual players, many have not even completed all dungeons in vet.
Although of course I have seen many pithcas with „all green“, I think the majority of players could still play ages to only complete the existing content.
I assume only a few hundred players have 100% of all achievements,

I would even love to see a slower pace with updates. I was just familiar with Subclassing and the DK rework and now you have to rethink everything due to class masteries and werewolves. Why would you already need update 51? Already bored with Werwolf and class masteries? Already veterancy rank 100?

Maybe I am too slow or not playing enough but I guess I am not alone.

But what is the issue if people who enjoy [content X] want more?

I'm one of those people who has every 4-man achievement in the game. Why? Because I love that content. That's the reason I play this game. When a new Dungeon came out, my group would go at it hard since we found that so much fun, so of course we finished it.

You could just as easily flip that question on its head: "Speaking for myself, I have not even done most hardmode in dlc trials, let alone trifectas story content in the game.
...
Looking at the more casual players, many have not even completed all dungeons in vet fishing and questing achievements in the DLC zones.
...
Why would you already need update 51 Winterhold? Already bored with Werwolf and class masteries Solstice? Already veterancy rank 100 Master Angler on every character?"

See? I doubt your comment is intending to suggest that we stop coming out with new Zones and stories since most of the people who care grind out the stories immediately - after all, see the line we had to get into the manor for the latest TG quest before it got fixed. I'd guess most people have already grinded that out, and now they're here begging for new Zones... just like how you complain about how the group content people are begging for more dungeons and trials.

o_Primate_o · July 16

i'm hoping that after FO is transferred to Obsidian, Asha will reassign some former Bethesda's FO developers to fill ESO gap. Is that me being naively stupid?

agelonestar · July 16

Elder Scrolls Online, Update 52, brought to you by ChatGPT.

Gabriel_H · July 16

Nemesis7884 wrote: »

If with a fraction of the people -obviously- only a fraction of the content can be produced in the future - lets say future seasons will have 1/3 of the content this year have; the whole business model and value proposition of the game falls apart...?

This is a flawed premise. The reason it is flawed is because we simply do not know what the new structure at XBox looks like.

Lets say that 6 VFX designers got laid off. That would be a huge impact on the game development timescales. But these layoffs weren't in a vacuum. XBox owns multiple studios, and without knowing the full extent of the layoffs across all those studios and any restructuring of workflows we cannot know the actual impact.

Maybe there will be less VFX designers, or maybe there will be out-sourced teams across the whole of XBox gaming. Maybe it will add to development timescales, or maybe it will shorten them. We simply don't know.

Companies chase profit and ESO/ZOS is very profitable - that's how you know the game's future is all but assured from the company side. They won't shut a money maker, and at worst they'd simply sell it off or allow a management buyout. What is less certain is will they still have the player numbers to keep it profitable.

The latter is a mix of player retention and new players. The biggest obstacle to the mixed position, retaining new players, is the sheer size of the game. A lot of the newer content has a large focus on making life easier for newer players. Things like Favours are meh for us grumpy oldies, but the rewards are lush for newbies. If player numbers fall things get dicey, if they rise it's all gravy - something to remember when bashing the newer systems.

Pixiepumpkin · July 16

Gabriel_H wrote: »

This is a flawed premise. The reason it is flawed is because we simply do not know what the new structure at XBox looks like.

This is a flawed premise because it's irrelevent...we'll get to that in a minute.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Lets say that 6 VFX designers got laid off. That would be a huge impact on the game development timescales. But these layoffs weren't in a vacuum. XBox owns multiple studios, and without knowing the full extent of the layoffs across all those studios and any restructuring of workflows we cannot know the actual impact.

The failing in your premise is that you assume that (in this example) all VFX designers are equally adept and have the same style (neither are true).
Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable? He has been with Zenimax since what, 2009? Do you think his music style/folly style that has literally given ESO a voice and brought the game to life can be replaced? Pro-tip. Brad is not replacable. His style is his alone and his style is what in part made Elder Scrolls among others.
Sure, we could hire John Williams, who will ask for MORE money, and his music would no doubt be memorable but it would not be the same style as Brad Derrick.

The same thing can be said for painters, 3D modeling, texture artists, graphic designers/UI, animators, etc.

Those people, while technically "replacable", are not just leaving with their bodies, but their art styles and everything that they accomplished in their lives to build those styles. That is not replicated.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Maybe there will be less VFX designers, or maybe there will be out-sourced teams across the whole of XBox gaming. Maybe it will add to development timescales, or maybe it will shorten them. We simply don't know.

Again, irrelevant.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Companies chase profit and ESO/ZOS is very profitable

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%
No company is going to kill their product that is making 70 points of margin, which is itself insanely high.
Most software sits in the 20 to 40% range
Manufacturing around 5-15%
Speakers 35 to 40 points (note I realize that points of margin and percent are different, but they are close enough for this conversation)
Grocery stores usually make 1 to 3% margin

70% profit is unheard of, even jewelry (which is the highest) is less than what you are asserting.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

- that's how you know the game's future is all but assured from the company side. They won't shut a money maker, and at worst they'd simply sell it off or allow a management buyout. What is less certain is will they still have the player numbers to keep it profitable.

Yet they are dismantling zenimax before our yes, with your assumed 70% profit.

Gabriel_H · July 16

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

This is a flawed premise. The reason it is flawed is because we simply do not know what the new structure at XBox looks like.

This is a flawed premise because it's irrelevent...we'll get to that in a minute.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Lets say that 6 VFX designers got laid off. That would be a huge impact on the game development timescales. But these layoffs weren't in a vacuum. XBox owns multiple studios, and without knowing the full extent of the layoffs across all those studios and any restructuring of workflows we cannot know the actual impact.

The failing in your premise is that you assume that (in this example) all VFX designers are equally adept and have the same style (neither are true).
Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable? He has been with Zenimax since what, 2009? Do you think his music style/folly style that has literally given ESO a voice and brought the game to life can be replaced? Pro-tip. Brad is not replacable. His style is his alone and his style is what in part made Elder Scrolls among others.
Sure, we could hire John Williams, who will ask for MORE money, and his music would no doubt be memorable but it would not be the same style as Brad Derrick.

The same thing can be said for painters, 3D modeling, texture artists, graphic designers/UI, animators, etc.

Those people, while technically "replacable", are not just leaving with their bodies, but their art styles and everything that they accomplished in their lives to build those styles. That is not replicated.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Maybe there will be less VFX designers, or maybe there will be out-sourced teams across the whole of XBox gaming. Maybe it will add to development timescales, or maybe it will shorten them. We simply don't know.

Again, irrelevant.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Companies chase profit and ESO/ZOS is very profitable

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%
No company is going to kill their product that is making 70 points of margin, which is itself insanely high.
Most software sits in the 20 to 40% range
Manufacturing around 5-15%
Speakers 35 to 40 points (note I realize that points of margin and percent are different, but they are close enough for this conversation)
Grocery stores usually make 1 to 3% margin

70% profit is unheard of, even jewelry (which is the highest) is less than what you are asserting.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

- that's how you know the game's future is all but assured from the company side. They won't shut a money maker, and at worst they'd simply sell it off or allow a management buyout. What is less certain is will they still have the player numbers to keep it profitable.

Yet they are dismantling zenimax before our yes, with your assumed 70% profit.

You are confusing objective and subjective. Is Brad replaceable? No idea. That doesn't alter anything I said.

Syldras · July 16

o_Primate_o wrote: »

i'm hoping that after FO is transferred to Obsidian, Asha will reassign some former Bethesda's FO developers to fill ESO gap. Is that me being naively stupid?

I've been wondering if there are any future plans to merge the teams of ESO and the TES singleplayer main line? Any chance for that? Then it might make sense that they think they only need one person for the music, or one writing team, for example, and it might even make the output more congruent.

Pixiepumpkin · July 16

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

This is a flawed premise. The reason it is flawed is because we simply do not know what the new structure at XBox looks like.

This is a flawed premise because it's irrelevent...we'll get to that in a minute.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Lets say that 6 VFX designers got laid off. That would be a huge impact on the game development timescales. But these layoffs weren't in a vacuum. XBox owns multiple studios, and without knowing the full extent of the layoffs across all those studios and any restructuring of workflows we cannot know the actual impact.

The failing in your premise is that you assume that (in this example) all VFX designers are equally adept and have the same style (neither are true).
Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable? He has been with Zenimax since what, 2009? Do you think his music style/folly style that has literally given ESO a voice and brought the game to life can be replaced? Pro-tip. Brad is not replacable. His style is his alone and his style is what in part made Elder Scrolls among others.
Sure, we could hire John Williams, who will ask for MORE money, and his music would no doubt be memorable but it would not be the same style as Brad Derrick.

The same thing can be said for painters, 3D modeling, texture artists, graphic designers/UI, animators, etc.

Those people, while technically "replacable", are not just leaving with their bodies, but their art styles and everything that they accomplished in their lives to build those styles. That is not replicated.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Maybe there will be less VFX designers, or maybe there will be out-sourced teams across the whole of XBox gaming. Maybe it will add to development timescales, or maybe it will shorten them. We simply don't know.

Again, irrelevant.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Companies chase profit and ESO/ZOS is very profitable

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%
No company is going to kill their product that is making 70 points of margin, which is itself insanely high.
Most software sits in the 20 to 40% range
Manufacturing around 5-15%
Speakers 35 to 40 points (note I realize that points of margin and percent are different, but they are close enough for this conversation)
Grocery stores usually make 1 to 3% margin

70% profit is unheard of, even jewelry (which is the highest) is less than what you are asserting.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

- that's how you know the game's future is all but assured from the company side. They won't shut a money maker, and at worst they'd simply sell it off or allow a management buyout. What is less certain is will they still have the player numbers to keep it profitable.

Yet they are dismantling zenimax before our yes, with your assumed 70% profit.

You are confusing objective and subjective. Is Brad replaceable? No idea. That doesn't alter anything I said.

Everything I stated was objective, [snip]

Artists of all walks are no so easily replacable as you infer, I already gave the reasons why.

Gabriel_H · July 16

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

This is a flawed premise. The reason it is flawed is because we simply do not know what the new structure at XBox looks like.

This is a flawed premise because it's irrelevent...we'll get to that in a minute.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Lets say that 6 VFX designers got laid off. That would be a huge impact on the game development timescales. But these layoffs weren't in a vacuum. XBox owns multiple studios, and without knowing the full extent of the layoffs across all those studios and any restructuring of workflows we cannot know the actual impact.

The failing in your premise is that you assume that (in this example) all VFX designers are equally adept and have the same style (neither are true).
Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable? He has been with Zenimax since what, 2009? Do you think his music style/folly style that has literally given ESO a voice and brought the game to life can be replaced? Pro-tip. Brad is not replacable. His style is his alone and his style is what in part made Elder Scrolls among others.
Sure, we could hire John Williams, who will ask for MORE money, and his music would no doubt be memorable but it would not be the same style as Brad Derrick.

The same thing can be said for painters, 3D modeling, texture artists, graphic designers/UI, animators, etc.

Those people, while technically "replacable", are not just leaving with their bodies, but their art styles and everything that they accomplished in their lives to build those styles. That is not replicated.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Maybe there will be less VFX designers, or maybe there will be out-sourced teams across the whole of XBox gaming. Maybe it will add to development timescales, or maybe it will shorten them. We simply don't know.

Again, irrelevant.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Companies chase profit and ESO/ZOS is very profitable

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%
No company is going to kill their product that is making 70 points of margin, which is itself insanely high.
Most software sits in the 20 to 40% range
Manufacturing around 5-15%
Speakers 35 to 40 points (note I realize that points of margin and percent are different, but they are close enough for this conversation)
Grocery stores usually make 1 to 3% margin

70% profit is unheard of, even jewelry (which is the highest) is less than what you are asserting.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

- that's how you know the game's future is all but assured from the company side. They won't shut a money maker, and at worst they'd simply sell it off or allow a management buyout. What is less certain is will they still have the player numbers to keep it profitable.

Yet they are dismantling zenimax before our yes, with your assumed 70% profit.

You are confusing objective and subjective. Is Brad replaceable? No idea. That doesn't alter anything I said.

Everything I stated was objective, your statement is not only subjective, but not made with any sense of how these things work to start with.

Artists of all walks are no so easily replacable as you infer, I already gave the reasons why.

"Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable?" - That is subjective. That is one of a dozen examples. [snip]

Nemesis7884 · July 16

They will certainly try to outsource more of the work but loosing senior staff will hurt...

Microsoft has a 30% profit margin target for every division and xbox was way below that...but eso is highly profitable with afaik 15m/month and 2bn total revenues which imo makes it certainly the most profitable elder scrolls game (Skyrim is estimated at 1.5-2bn).

For me its just hard to grasp why cut with ESO when its profitable and at a decent spot while other Elder Scrolls projects get delayed AND you want to have a stronger focus on them...

I completely understand why some other studios were cut or given up because their products were not commercially viable...but then again, this shows just how incompetent xbox leadership has always been... no offense but anyone who thinks south of midnight would be commercially viable at production cost of 100 million!!!! (Which would require 3-5m games sold to break even - just as a comparison, expedition 33 cost 10 million to make...go figure) does not understand anything about gaming...

But then again, Microsoft as a software company was never any good at creating software either, the only thing they are good at is creating and defending monopolies and destroying indie game studios...

Pixiepumpkin · July 16

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

This is a flawed premise. The reason it is flawed is because we simply do not know what the new structure at XBox looks like.

This is a flawed premise because it's irrelevent...we'll get to that in a minute.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Lets say that 6 VFX designers got laid off. That would be a huge impact on the game development timescales. But these layoffs weren't in a vacuum. XBox owns multiple studios, and without knowing the full extent of the layoffs across all those studios and any restructuring of workflows we cannot know the actual impact.

The failing in your premise is that you assume that (in this example) all VFX designers are equally adept and have the same style (neither are true).
Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable? He has been with Zenimax since what, 2009? Do you think his music style/folly style that has literally given ESO a voice and brought the game to life can be replaced? Pro-tip. Brad is not replacable. His style is his alone and his style is what in part made Elder Scrolls among others.
Sure, we could hire John Williams, who will ask for MORE money, and his music would no doubt be memorable but it would not be the same style as Brad Derrick.

The same thing can be said for painters, 3D modeling, texture artists, graphic designers/UI, animators, etc.

Those people, while technically "replacable", are not just leaving with their bodies, but their art styles and everything that they accomplished in their lives to build those styles. That is not replicated.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Maybe there will be less VFX designers, or maybe there will be out-sourced teams across the whole of XBox gaming. Maybe it will add to development timescales, or maybe it will shorten them. We simply don't know.

Again, irrelevant.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Companies chase profit and ESO/ZOS is very profitable

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%
No company is going to kill their product that is making 70 points of margin, which is itself insanely high.
Most software sits in the 20 to 40% range
Manufacturing around 5-15%
Speakers 35 to 40 points (note I realize that points of margin and percent are different, but they are close enough for this conversation)
Grocery stores usually make 1 to 3% margin

70% profit is unheard of, even jewelry (which is the highest) is less than what you are asserting.

Gabriel_H wrote: »

- that's how you know the game's future is all but assured from the company side. They won't shut a money maker, and at worst they'd simply sell it off or allow a management buyout. What is less certain is will they still have the player numbers to keep it profitable.

Yet they are dismantling zenimax before our yes, with your assumed 70% profit.

You are confusing objective and subjective. Is Brad replaceable? No idea. That doesn't alter anything I said.

Everything I stated was objective, your statement is not only subjective, but not made with any sense of how these things work to start with.

Artists of all walks are no so easily replacable as you infer, I already gave the reasons why.

"Do you honestly think that Brad Derrick is replacable?" - That is subjective. That is one of a dozen examples. I don't debate people who put forth bad faith arguments.

Its not a bad faith argument, not even in the slightest. I even gave you a paragraph explaining why. You are being completely disingenuous.

Just because you do not understand what an "art style" is, does not mean that it's easily replacable.

You are claiming you are being objective, while giving subjective opinions, and then claiming you are not being subjective - that is nothing but a bad faith argument.

Incorrect. I stating objective facts.

You worked in finance, I have worked in design for over 30 years. You don't just "replace" designers or artists and maintain the feel of a video game.

Its not to dissimilar from using different directors in the same movie chain.

Art is only "subjective" to people who know nothing about art and while peoples tastes are subjective, what defines something as good or bad is based more in objectivity than subjectivity.

And the fact is, Brad Merrick set the entire tone for ESO through his music, that can not be replaced without affecting the feel of the game.
Same goes for animators.
Same goes for texture artists.
Same goes for artists who model.

Haenk · July 16

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%

Non-business people don't understand this.
If the ROI (return-on-investment) is 15% on ESO, while MS expects and has 20+% on all other products - they will get into serious trouble, when investing money into ESO, as an investment anywhere else creates more profit. That's just how publically listed companies work (and have to work).
Annoying, but reasonable.
Really a buyout might be an attractive solution for MS.

Eldovar · July 16

Haenk wrote: »

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

No true. Profitable, sure, but its way below the 70% you asssert, in fact its well below 30%

Non-business people don't understand this.
If the ROI (return-on-investment) is 15% on ESO, while MS expects and has 20+% on all other products - they will get into serious trouble, when investing money into ESO, as an investment anywhere else creates more profit. That's just how publically listed companies work (and have to work).
Annoying, but reasonable.
Really a buyout might be an attractive solution for MS.

Until recently they had a minimum 30 percent ROI for gaming, which was a pretty insane percentage compared to other big players in the gaming business.

ZOS_CouchTato · July 16

We have gone ahead and removed some back and forth from this thread, as it was not constructive. Please ensure that you all have reviewed the Community Rules and keep our discussions constructive.